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Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

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India's "demonitsation" could have a flaw

Posted on November 19, 2016 at 4:49 PM Comments comments (203)
The procedure introduced in India in an attempt to make 'black money' null and void, or 'demonitise' such funds is inherent with a flaw, I believe.  

In practice, the idea of forcing people to exchange their 1, 000 and 500 rupee notes has caused lot of frustration, with people having to que up outside banks to exchange these high denomination notes.  Some of the banks don't have the money to give in exchange - such are the ques and such is the quantity of money being brought to be exchanged.  So far, about five billion pounds worth equivalent has already been exchanged.  The Indian authorities believe there still is about nine billion pounds worth of the high denomination notes still in circulation.  Of that, they estimate it will whittle it down to approximately five billion poundsnt? worth equivalent which will not be able to be exchanged legitimately.

What will happen with this five billion pounds worth equivalent in rupees?  By demonitising this,  the Indian government is going to write it off, I suppose, making the possessors of the black money effectively holding worthless paper, never in the future being able to use their treasure which has been written off.  Effectively, the Indian government surely is not going to reduce the amount of money in circulation by such a grand amount?  It would be such a shame.  Removing such an amount from circulation would create a squueze, probably necessitating an increase in the benchmark interest rate.  When the Western nations with their reserve currencies have been printing more or authorizing more digitally, can India afford to be effectively tightening their money supply to their detriment?

It just not make sense, to effectively reduce to null and void what is part of their nation's wealth.
That is where I suggest the flaw lies.

What may be better may be to levy a tax of say twenty five or thirty percent on money that may be surmised to be black money.  This way, the culprits with black money will be identified,  charged tax on that, but they may have the oppprtunity to hold as savings in banks their hoarded money, effectively keeping it legitimately in circulation.  This would be good for perpetuation of the nation's wealth.  And the tax thus collected will prove useful for national purposes, be it providing education, social security, or building houses, schools, dispensaries.

Kind regards,
Durudarshan
(C) copyright.

Donald Trump will be a good great President

Posted on November 15, 2016 at 6:11 AM Comments comments (88)
My reading is that Donald John Trump will make a good great  President, creating work for people, helping them rebuild America, and turn the ecnomic Recovery into Prosperity.  I believe it is time for all people to halt the protests and demonstrations, and instead rest awhile till 20th January.  Immediately he is in charge, I belive this good man who has realized his full potntial and still seems to have plenty more he will achieve, certainly is of a generous heart to enable and provide the wherewithal to all other fellow citizens to realize their dreams.

He promised to get the coalminers up and working again.  You can imagine the young men and women in the rust belt waiting to restore or renew as soon as their work is renewed.  Donald Trump has promised them work, and it shal be so.  
His plan to create several million jobs at a cost of Six Hundred Billion Dollars seem a classic way of creating jobs and repairing or renewing national infrastructure, creating indeed fulfilling jobs which were dormant, creating livelihod and prosperity for the people.  

Donald Trump likes  to fund distribution of the Bible, and drew inspiration from his Pastor, the Revernd  John Vincent Peale.  That brand of positive thinking and Christianty is certainly that enthuses people to do good for themselves and  by inclusion be doing for the community, or even the world at large.

The author of Art of the Deal certainly believes in talking and discussing and renegotiating, and obviously he is a man with a good understanding heart.  

They spnt about eight years trying to get th Wolstan Ice Rink built in New York, and nothing as achieved, all wasted.  Donald offered to get it built, and he got it completed in eight months and under budget.  This man is a legend.  This man will get all people working, and make America great again.  He bears no ill will towards anybody.  He is as the Saviour would have him do.  Judging by his record, I feel we will all admire what he achives in his first year.  Now it is time for all to congratulate him on winning the election fair and square, and welcome him and look forward to his leadership.  

Kind Regards
Durudarshan

(C) copyright.



The Euro unification of currency and philosophy has thrown up its own challenges

Posted on July 29, 2016 at 7:25 PM Comments comments (95)
The inception of the Euro and the evolving political and social philosophy of the nations it serves has been almost natural, an experiment in the growth of both, facing challenges as the journey has progressed, addressing the various crisis the best they knew how.  It has been an interesting journey so far.  God willing, it will continue further to unite the spirit of the European nations, and allow the Euro to successfully become a Reserve Currency.  At the moment, of course, the Euro is in its infancy.

In retrospect, questions should have been asked : How could the Maastricht Treaty overlook the printing of the Euro, or the issuing of it?  It seems the Euro Area, which was growing in number of member nations and consequently serving a bigger population, was consigned to try and manage on a 'limited budget'.  It seems not to have occurred to the powers that be that as they enlisted more members, the size of the pool of capital should have automatically been allowed to grow.  That fiscal adjustment to the collective balance sheet of the European Union nations should have been a natural, routine point.

Just imagine : First of all, East and West Germany combined, joining their currency and wealth pools to replace it with the Euro.  Remember, they had BMWs in one country, Skodas in the other, now they were going to have similar values.  Should the prices in West have been adjusted downwards, and perhaps not adjusted upwards for the East?  Was there a middle ground? 
When Greece turned all the Drachmas and Gold reserves over to Germany, what calculations were made to allocate them the Euro instead?  Was there a scientific system of transferring value?
This is just some simplistic absurd arguments, but you get the point.
It seems the Union kept growing, with more nations surrendering their original monetary units and getting the Euro instead - and this was from the limited pool that was created in the first instance.  (The Maastricht Treaty did not have any stipulation for printing or issuing more, and this was only recently looked at whereupon Mr Mario Draghi announced suitable modifications to that policy and authorized printing or issuance of more of the stuff.).

This is food for thought, and can only help in growing the Euro to a powerful, respectable Reserve Currency of the future, and the political and social unification of Europe as something that may be a cohesive, harmonious federation.

In the meantime, it seems the economic jargon utilized may have obfuscated the whole issue, as urgent issues were tackled with the most convenient solutions being thrown at the problems as they arose.  Perhaps it may be best to accept that it cannot have been any other way? 

Now with hindsight, and some scientific analysis (or even some inspired ideas), hopefully the Euro will grow stronger, the European Union nations feel they were each served equitably by the Euro, and allow the harmonious mingling of the nations combine and celebrate a culture that reflects the unity of all these people, the values they share and their aspirations for a secure, honourable and prosperous future for the E.U. and associated nations. 

Certainly with the ECB stimulus in place, there ought to be growing strength and confidence in the future, a rosy future that could hasten the economic Recovery and perhaps take us all to Prosperity, which may be just around the corner.

As for the rest of the world, China and Russia are re-creating the new Silk Road, which should see economic development in a lot of the countries that lie across the route.  Logically, there should be good numbers this year, regardless of who becomes President in the U.S. As for Brexit and the Article 50, it seems most probable that the United Kingdom will choose the options that bestow the greatest advantages to themselves.  There is a jubilant atmosphere here in the U.K. that things will be more than okay, and we will get the best of the bargain.  There seems there will be no lack of goodwill in the U.K. towards all the European nations, and shall continue trading with all these nations on the best terms under the current situation.  Brexit will turn into a blessing in disguise, for the U.K. and her friends the other Euro Area and E.U. nations. 

I would propose a toast : to the longevity of the Euro, and happy, harmonious times for the European Union and the United Kingdom.

Cheers!

Durudarshan H. Dadlani

(c) Copyright, but may be freely shared and distributed, with acknowledgement.
00:23 hours  GMT  30th July 2016  London

 




The Japanese stimulus may do wonders for the world.

Posted on July 29, 2016 at 12:10 PM Comments comments (277)
Mr Kuroda, the Bank of Japan Governor, has at least authorized the £265 billion stimulus suggested by the Prime Minister, Mr Shinzo Abe.  This should work wonders for the world.

In view of the huge stimulus already in place, which perhaps may sink the system eventually, it was good Mr Kuroda has not added to the current stimulus, but just authorized what will be needed for the near future.  Of course, the period over which this stimulus would be issued and pumped into the system has not been clarified, but it can be assumed it will last beyond Mr Abe's current term as P.M. 
Abenomics proved its success in his first term in office, and it was suggested a second term should be rightfully his, so that he could nurture fully the economic regime in set in place.  The results seem to have been good, maintaining Japan's place as the fifth largest economy in the world.  There economic influence worldwide is far-reaching and welcomed everywhere.  Recently India under PM Narendra Modi-ji borrowed an investment of $35 billion from Japan; of course, they would have obliged him with more, had he just asked.  The Japanese bear friendship towards all friendly people, and their circle is bound to grow, with demands for capital in all the developing countries.  As well as their marvellous electronics and cars and scooters and weighing machines, Japan is exporting capital.  And their stimulus has done a great deal of good around the world, mirroring the stimulus in the U.S. and now in Europe. 

In short, all these nations have printed the stuff that keeps the economic momentum going.  It would be better still if all that money is loaned out to everybody, to keep their businesses operating in sometimes difficult conditions.  (For example, specialist Farm hotel in Tuscany not being able to operate due to temporary lack of customers, and reduced profitability due to withdrawal of E.U. subsidies and local regulations, which of course the E.U. governments need to modify and adapt in tune with today's realities, so that as banks get bailouts they can bailout their customers for the meantime and enable them return to profitability.)

Mr Abe has asked for the £265 billion stimulus to use for government financing, so this will mean a lot of work in the Public Works departments to create infrastructure but also possibly to put some money into people's pockets, in an effort to raise inflation to about 2 percent.  This could materialize for them, by giving some social security benefits for couples to start families, perhaps money to low-paid workers to take a holiday (perhaps to Tuscany?) and so on.  This money could be dished out to the public directly; about $4000 equivalent in Yen per annum to be spent on each citizen, by way of education, medication, health and social care facilities, but also some for socially useful items as giving people a holiday....that would cheer people up.  They have to do something to lift up their spirits after the Fukushima tragedy not so long ago.  Once their spirits feel refreshed and restored, things could work out very nicely for them all.  For a population of 20 million, they could dish out the stimulus at 80 billion per annum.  And once this feeds into the economy, it will create plenty of jobs, give some freebies to the people, and with enhanced expenditure perhaps the inflation will pick up.  Who knows?  Certainly everyone hopes so.  May God's blessings be upon the Japanese people and their friends for a successful deployment of this stimulus.  it may do wonders for the world.


Kind regards,
Durudarshan H. Dadlani

(c) Copyright, but may be shared and freely distributed, with acknowledgement.






 

I believe Japan should be cutting the Stimulus

Posted on July 25, 2016 at 10:27 AM Comments comments (156)
Recently, I read the highly esteemed Emperor of Japan was considering abdicating.  I wonder why.

Also, I always hear the news that their population is growing older, but not growing in size.

Most of the young people cannot think of starting families, so expensive it is to maintain a living standard.

If people lose their jobs, they exist very quietly, not calling attention to their status.

On the other hand, I have heard of houses filled with (toy) dolls, because there are no children.
This shows a desire for some kind of "life"

With the huge Stimulus that Japan has started to print plenty of Yen in a semblance of the quantitative easing in the U.S., Mr Kuroda has authorised the issuance of as much as 85 billion (or was it 110 billion?) U.S. Dollar equivalent per month, so their monetary expansion is on par with the U.S. 

Forgive my saying, but that is enough money to sink the system.....it is only a matter of time.
The signs are already there : the economy is picking up, the GDP and GNP remain pretty subdued, and all that money is not being borrowed - making it necessary for Japanese banks to offer negative interest rates to depositors, so the savers pay something to keep their money at the banks. 

That is a phenomena that is catching up in the rest of the world, especially the mature economies (sometimes referred to as the industrialised world).

More printed money, which is not being borrowed, seems a useless effort......On the other hand, the Yen by itself is stilling strong and rising in value.

Therefore, with all due respect to Mr Kuroda, would it not be the brilliant idea to 'taper' the Stimulus.
Ha, so, cut the amount of money being printed or issued into the system (including electronically).

I believe that should do the trick :  Once the Stimulus is cut, the false expectations of free money will disappear.  In place, you may see more goods from Japan being imported by other countries : people just look the unbeatable Japanese electronics and TVs, the wizard microwaves, jogging stereos and so on.  Why has the Yen been rising so far? - because people are borrowing it as capital.

In the meantime, it may also prove very prudent and necessary measures to increase the amount of social security paid to people, especially the young folks who wish to have children.  Some generous measures will be good.  For this island nation of some 20 million persons with the 5th largest economy in the world is an amazing fact.  They certainly can celebrate life with the highest standard of living in the world, plus generous provision for coming generations, and encouraging people to have children.

Japan is one of the few very lucky nations that can afford to buy everything for their citizens, even overseas, be it houses, cars, food, entertainment, whiskey, brandy, champagne, whatever the people wish for.

Perhaps His Exalted Highness wishes to hand over the state duties to His Son?  In the meantime, he could certainly drop this hint to Mr Kuroda, to taper the Stimulus.

Kind regards,
Durudarshan  H. Dadlani

(c) Copyright, but may be freely shared and translated.

 

The European Union may have to revise their rules, especially on Immigration

Posted on July 10, 2016 at 2:28 PM Comments comments (75)
1)  Visa-free travel may be one thing, but it is quite another to have some kind of automatic right of stay for an extended period in another country whether for work or study or extended visit to relatives.
In terms of habitable land available, houses available and construction of more, the resources available in terms of potential jobs, medical facilities, schools, training, food, and of course provision of bathrooms and toilets, as well as police and such services, must be taken into account before allowing any more immigration.  I believe that part of the E.U. rules will have to be revised and tightened up, to ensure each member nation will only take the number that it can reasonably accommodate and provide for, then they would be welcome. 

2)  Looking at the Unemployment figures for Spain, it is very good news that the rate has come down from 25pecent to about 20percent.  The number of existing home sales has also started to pick up, reducing their inventory of the construction boom that left large number of houses empty.  It seems the house prices in Spain must be very favourable for buyers, and with more employment being created perhaps the time will soon come when most of the houses will be occupied, and the market could boom in maybe a year or two.  In the meantime, they have some work to do....for example running more buses along the less busy routes into isolated areas....this would encourage people to settle there.  And with more people settling there, obviously more trades and service-providers will open up shop or office around there, and perhaps employ apprenetices...this would boost the employment further, and bring some relief and joy in Espana's economic Recovery.  May we say Ole! to that.

3) The employment figures for Italy, France and Finaland are showing some deterioration, not good news, hence perhaps the caution from IMF that Europe will be achieving a modest Recovery. The E.C.B. could surely do something with their Stimulus and provide to these economies, to boost up the growth figures?  Upgrade of industries, investment into the New Economy (i.e. digital media and means) and perhaps borrowing the idea from Germany (as they have done in the UK) and creating Zero-hour contracts and employing young and old alike would certainly bring a lot of happiness to the citizens.
The national wealth in the form of printed or digitized money can circulate with a better velocity (increase the unemployment and pension benefits, enabling the recipients to spend more and live better) and the economic momentum will start to pick up, resulting in better figures of economic Recovery for these nations (and preserving the whole general upward momentum of the economy of the Euro Area as a whole).

4)  When people read of the current debate of the U.K.'s inclination to tighten the Immigration numbers (seeking to implement a points and quota system and abolishing an 'open door' easy entry system), some people will be pointed to look at the availability of jobs in other nations and their eligibility to go and work there, and perhaps settle there.  Pigeons go where the grains are, to climes which are suitable for them.  Why will it be different for human beings, if I may express it so simply?  Rules should be so worded and designed that they mean joy and welcome for law-abiding citizens as well as meeting with the approval of the people of the various nations.  An 'open door' policy simply will not work satisfactorily for the citizens, and politicians seeking to advocate such causes will perceivably lose their popularity. 

5)  Britain's intention to pull out of the European Union will remain a valid discussion and ongoing debate for about the next two and a half years.  Whoever becomes the next British Prime Minister (Mrs Theresa May or Mrs Andrea Leadsom) will have to tackle some very complex legislation to (a) satisfy the Remain and Leave sides and (b) kick in Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty for consideration by the E.U. and the respective members' parliaments.  Only thereafter upon satisfactory conclusion of such debates could formally Britain submit their proposal to exit the E.U.
     -  That gives hopes to both halves ( the vote was split 52percent Leave, 48percent Remain) that things will work out amicably and fairly.  First and foremost it seems the British would like there to be a clamp down on uncontrolled immigration.  Secondly, they would like not to pay or perhaps reduce the Club Fee, which last year for Britain was £8.5billion.  In terms of the constant shortfalls in the NHS budgets and reduction of schools, neglect of building council housing and so on, even reduction of children's nursery places, this would be money best spent at home, in Wales and England especially, who voted for Leave.  Northern Ireland, Scotland and London voted Remain overwhelmingly.  It is anybody's guess whether a partial membership will be required.  It may mean a mixed deal, and certainly some very complex scenarios face the United Kingdom in the days ahead.  No, it will not break up the Kingdom, but it will mean the writing of some very complex legislation. 
      -  Britain will emerge out of this Referendum as a stronger nation, focused on addressing their shortcomings within the neglected parts of the economy, and building on our strengths where the economy is robust and potential for sustaining it remains undisturbed, such as in London, Scotland and Northern Ireland, with the hopes that any neglect in these parts will also be address under the new Prime Minister.

Predicated on the good common sense of all the people in preserving the sound and useful cultural and economic ties that have developed in the European Union and the Euro Area over the last forty years or so, and to preserve such ties and expand them further for the future, I imagine steady economic growth for all these areas, for the next eighteen months at least.  God, our Heavenly Father, and Nature, our magnificent Mother Earth has never disappointed humanity in constantly created abundance at a admirable pace.  You have to marvel, and realise that They have never let us down.  I say this testimony in the name of Jesus our Saviour and Redeemer.  Amen.

(c) Copyright.  Durudarshan.

  



Juts like the Greeks, perhaps Britons should rethink on Brexit?

Posted on July 7, 2016 at 6:07 AM Comments comments (44)
Perhaps it is a blessing in disguise that the British people have a few months to weigh up the likely effects of Brexit before and whether Article 50, Lisbon Treaty, be triggered.

That in any case will not happen before 9th September, when the Conservative Party should have chosen their Leader, and who inter alia will succeed as the Prime Minister.  In the meantime, David Cameron, foremost proponent of the Remain campaign, holds fort. 

At this stage, it is anyone's guess who will emerge as the new Prime Minister.  Will it be Mrs Theresa May, the most highly experienced of the trio still left standing for the office.  Or will it be the Leave proponent, Mrs Andrea Leadsom, who has wide experience in the workings of the City financial markets? She has been endorsed by the former odds-on favourite for the job, the light-hearted but mercurial Boris Johnson, who for some reason stood down for the position when he was expected to stand and win it.  Michael Gove was the apparent reason Boris Johnson declared himself out of the race.  Mr Gove is seen as a determined but confused person, who let Boris down so badly by declaring himself a candidate instead of just supporting the hugely popular BoJo for the job.

The Conservative parliamentarians are going to continue to vote for the trio until one of them drops out by achieving the lowest backing.  Thereafter, the remaining two will be put to the ballot of Tory Party registered members, and that postal ballot (shouldn't it be an Internet friendly ballot?) will decide on the victor in this race, thereafter to be appointed Prime Minister.

David Cameron indicated that could be by October;  that gives Britons plenty of time to rethink on Brexit.

The media, especially The Sun newspaper, who so very openly advocated a Leave campaign and may have influenced the outcome of this very important Referendum, owe it to the public I believe to weigh up the consequences so the public can take a thoroughly considered view on this issue and decide what would be best.  It may be a blessing in disguise that there are a few months before the new Prime Minister is in place, so Article 50 can also be fully understood before some rash decision is made.

Currently, Britain has seen the Pound Sterling drop from 1.48 to 1.29 in a matter of two weeks.  That may be good for exports, but a lot of wealth has been written off.  Secondly, Denmark and other E.U. nations were proposing to withdraw their FDI in U.K.  A number of Real Estate Investment Trusts have suspended trading on the market, and property projects building across London and the U.K. have come to a halt.  This is certainly bad news for Britain. 

You just have to walk through the Mall in any town and the realisation dawns on you that there is likely to be a slowdown (already is) unless confidence becomes restored in economic security for the foreseeable future.  Shops are not busy.  If they are busy, people are just window-shopping.  People are sitting in the sunshine on the benches outside.  The stalls are not attracting too many customers.  On a bright day, people don't look too happy.  People are careful with their supermarket shopping once more.  And not surprising at all.  Some shops seem as if they will close unless customers start to return there in numbers.  Jewellers, bookshops, clothes retailers, even the High Street favourites, seem a bit quiet, for the time being.  And all this is just with the fear of Brexit, which hasn't formally been agreed.  What would actually happen in the case of Brexit being formally agreed is anyone's guess.

You know, the Greeks also had a Referendum, on whether to leave the European Union.  And they also chose to go for it, and get back their in-de-pendence from the superstate....Then once they realized that their pensions and social security (which are issued in Euros) would not be paid to them if they confirmed their verdict....well, they tactfully changed their minds and said they wanted to have their drachmas back but could not see life without the Euro.  Their young Prime Minister Alexis Sipras declared that to the E.U. Ministers, and all was well.  The Greek nation received the bailouts from Europe, and the people their money, and all could celebrate with a glass of retsina or ouzo as Europeans, flowers of the same Europa bouquet. 

Actually, I believe the European Union can help restore confidence, especially on the issue of Immigration, and then perhaps the British will see the good sense in remaining part of the E.U.
Namely, the people are adamant they do not want any more uncontrolled immigration.  As David Cameron has suggested, Britain would like to see immigration only on a points and quota based system, and a closed door policy to freeloaders looking for an easy life.  This is something the European nations too have to consider and make part of their policy : can anyone really see any nation accepting so many refugees and migrants from Syria or wherever?  There is a growing resentment and not welcome towards these beleaguered people, and of course it would be better to foster peace in their original homelands so they could return there, as soon as practically possible.

If the British people have the reassurance that the E.U. will halt this open doors policy, and not force any member nation to take any more refugees or migrants then they can practically accommodate, then there may be cool heads willing to look at the benefits of remaining part of the Union. 

With positive consideration of these matters, it may be possible to have arrangements between the European Union nations to put aside these fears of a recessionary environment and instead enter at a good pace a further period of economic Recovery.  All being well, a period of Prosperity could well be in sight, in another eighteen months or so, with all the wheels oiled in the E.U. and the Euro Area nations.  The Pound Sterling being a Reserve currency of huge repute does of course provide a 'mirror' for the Euro, which is still in its infancy in that regard.  Co-operation and support between all nations would provide mutual benefit, that I sincerely believe.  In a global inter-dependent world, no nation can afford to become isolationist or inward-looking.  To the contrary, all nations have to engage in open debate and pursue agendas where they have similar objectives and could harness synergy through amicable co-operation.  For that understanding, I pray.


Kind regards,

Durudarshan H. Dadlani


(c) Copyright, but may be freely copied and shared, with acknowledgement.



 

The Brexit vote will not change things for about 2-1/2 years

Posted on July 3, 2016 at 4:56 PM Comments comments (53)
Although the majority by over a million people voted for Britain to Leave the European Union, the verdict was almost split, half the Kingdom voting to Remain, and half to Leave.  Moreover, London voted by 60 percent to stay, as did Scotland by an overwhelming majority (and in all constituency seats) to Remain, as did Northern Ireland. 

That leaves a mixed picture for the new Prime Minister to weigh up carefully and consider the implications before triggering the famous Article 50.  Now everyone knows that the Brexit vote will mean only the British peoples' declaration that they wish to separate from the European Union, but that separation won't even commence until the Article 50 is triggered.....and it will take another two years from such time until a final resolution can be agreed and achieved. 

Amicable separation, and what would be the terms and conditions?  That is something the U.K. parliamentarians will have to discuss and chew, and debate and propose the changes the people would seek.  Also, it will be upto the European Union Ministers in Brussels to throw up counter arguments, and will be a mildly heavy two years plus before some sense can be made of the issue.

Until such time, it will be at best possible for the British government to muddle through, anticipating and conjecturing on the final outcome, and how it will affect the rest of our days. 

In the meantime, until a new Prime Minister is selected by the Conservative Party, and thereafter the Prime Minister decides in consultation with the Civil Service as to when it would be prudent to trigger Article 50, the whole matter can only be considered to be in abeyance, pending that decision.

Is it a given that in the meantime, trading can continue as previously between U.K. and the other 27 European Union nations?  Will the same tariff free arrangements apply?  Can the citizens travel freely without visas to the different nations in the Union, or will there be visa requirements? 

Is Denmark pulling out its £150 billion investments in U.K. - or will it only take that decision once the famous Article 50 is triggered?


The vast majority of the British people seem adamant on one thing.  They would not like to see unrestricted, controlled immigration to the U.K.  The open door policy harboured by the E.U. has to be closed.  The U.K. feels pretty full, and there aren't the additional spare resources to feed, house, clothe, school or provide medicine for any more, the services are already stretched.  However, in view of the increasing number of older people in the country, they will allow selective immigration to fill certain jobs, based on a points and quota system.  People seeking an easy life on free resources provided by the state are definitely gone, and now in an effort to balance the national budget, funding is being reduced wherever possible.

Also, a bone of contention is the £8.5 billion 'Club fee' that Britain pays to the European Union.  This may be used in providing a few 'cushy jobs' for the Eurocrats, but the people in the deprived and neglected areas of England and Wales who overwhelmingly voted to Leave, don't see the value of it.
The £8.5 Billion could provide over half a million reasonably paid jobs each year, restoring services which have been reduced, and creating a new line of workers.   

They would much prefer this £8.5 billion per annum to be kept here in the U.K. and spent on funding the NHS, schools, and restoring things like library services, lights on the streets, community centres, provision for youngsters to do some creative activities instead of a delinquent life, etc.  It would also open up a lot of disused factories, shops on the High Street, and create local jobs.  In these hard times, it seems a practical choice - in these times when the rest of the U.K. economy seems to be improving all the time, some of these areas seem to be left behind.  Predominately they happen to be Labour dominated areas, so I believe it will be up to the Labour Party Leader to demand answers from the government as to why they have been so neglected.  The Labour Party M.P.s who sit on the Opposition benches must pull up their socks, and question why they have not queried these matters; and if they did, why have they been ignored and the growth of their areas neglected.  It is now obvious to everyone that there is huge potential for growth in these areas, and amicably the government must focus on this as a matter of national priority. 

If that becomes a real possibility, the European nations I estimate may wish to keep their investments in the U.K., for further appreciation.   And with the current 85 Billion Euros a month E.C.B. Stimulus, this could augur a period of further growth and continuation of the worldwide economic Recovery in this region.  If my assumptions are correct, it seems a very rosy picture for Europe in the near future.

Let me know your views, I shall be pleased to hear from readers as usual.

Kind regards,

Durudarshan


(c) Copyright.



It may be best to have a damage limitation exercise from Brexit

Posted on June 27, 2016 at 10:36 AM Comments comments (38)
Now that Brexit has happened, perhaps Britons should all celebrate, like Nigel Farage, and say it is no bad thing.  Indeed, this Referendum result has hardly been a straight Brexit : there are large pockets of the country that have overwhelmingly voted to stay In the E.U., prime examples being London and the whole of Scotland and Northern Ireland, all integral parts of the United Kingdom.
     The parts that have voted themselves out of the E.U. are England and Wales. 

     Parts of England and Wales who have predominantly cast the Leave vote are mostly 1) Areas of high deprivation and underdevelopment, areas which seem to have been neglected by various governments; and 2) Areas which are on the whole Labour dominated, politically.
     The issues that mostly affected people in these areas were, mostly, Immigration or the fear of it;
joblessness, lack of opportunities, lack of funding for socially beneficial schemes (such as community centres, pedestrianized centres in town centres, lack of funding for education and higher education, lack of childcare facilities, closure of hospital wings, etc, a picture of neglect and deprivation. 
     Of course, when people say the touring red bus of BoJo, saying £350 million a week for NHS, blah,
this was a huge selling point for the Leave campaign engineered by Boris Johnson, the former London Mayor and now the clear favourite to succeed David Cameron and become Prime Minister.  He has held this hugely responsible position, dealing with all matters of government administration and controls, and certainly he has welcomed and engaged with most of the world leaders, so it cannot truthfully be said that he has no experience at the highest level; that clearly he does, together with a scintillating personality and a humorous manner that makes him a fun personality, easy to understand, and likeable as well. 

     Whoever becomes the next British Prime Minister will have their tasks cut out for them :  He (or She) will have to take the brief of the pull-out to the European Union leaders, and present to them the full reasoning and also suggestions solutions how it would be best implemented, together with a time-frame.  The man who joyfully had governance of London for eight years could and perhaps should be that man.

     The Brexit vote has hinged largely on two issues : a) Britain is a small island, getting crowded, and does not want any more immigrants - being part of the E.U. would force them to take more immigrants, especially from the E.U. nations, under the free movement arrangements.  This is an element the P.M. will have to restrict, to the satisfactory agreement of the British people.  b) The money that is paid to the E.U. as a club fee - £13.5 billion last year, only £4billion of which comes back to the U.K.  The people would rather not pay this fee, and entrust the government to spend this entire sum internally in the U.K., perhaps largely to remedy the situation in deprived and neglected parts of England and Wales, together with funds available to London, Scotland and Northern Ireland as previously but with some enhancements, the proportion to be worked out to some formula. 

     As regards the two-way trade between U.K. and the various E.U. nations, that can obviously continue as previously, if it is agreeable to both sides.  After all, no one wants to lose trade, and certainly the Europhile London and Scottish and Northern Ireland banks will continue to have their trade relations as before with the E.U. nations; naturally enough, England and Wales will have their trade transacted through these regions.  So all may not be lost.

     The European Union now may have the straightforward task of agreeing to the above suggestions,
so that their British friends can have the feel-good factor.  Indeed, I would call upon all the E.U. nations in congratulating the British people on delivering this historic vote, and reassure them that they will not be obliged to take any more immigrants than they need (for whom work and housing, schools, medical facilities could be available).  £8.5 billion will appear a minor amount in the context of the unity and longevity of the Euorpean Union, and the continued economic Recovery and Prosperity they may soon experience with the current E.C.B. Stimulus of 85 Billion Euros per month, no less. 

     If in a spirit of friendliness and generosity our European Union friends and allies can allow these two requests, perhaps we can all cast the darkness away and celebrate. 

     As for the NATO alliance, that stays same as before, strong as ever, according to Mr. John Kerry, the U.S. Defense Secretary.

     A practical, sensible, friendly solution as amongst friendly nations, in a spirit of generosity and understanding, may save the day.  And after all, what is the European Union all about?  Is it not about the preservation of our cultural values and the happiness of all people within the  borders?

     As the United Kingdom uses its own sovereign currency, the Pound Sterling, the Brexit vote should have no bearing on the Euro and its sound establishment as a Reserve Currency.  That I do believe, and I express my good wishes for the continued strength and longevity of the European Union.

     Kind regards,
     Durudarshan H. Dadlani

(c) Copyright.  London  27thJune2016,  3:34pm  GMT.

Some lessons from the shock of Brexit

Posted on June 24, 2016 at 4:11 PM Comments comments (22)
Most people in the United Kingdom were surprised, perhaps even shocked, to wake up on this bright beautiful morning to discover that the verdict of the E.U. Referendum was a resounding Leave.  That had been seen as a perhaps spirited, wishful endeavour by some dramatic and entertaining people, including the UKIP's Nigel Farage, and the former London Mayor Boris Johnson, who has the colourful history of being descended from a Pasha of the Ottoman Empire.

But at 8.20am London time, standing outside No.10 at a speaking table with a microphone especially arranged, David Cameron indicated his resignation over this issue.  This foremost proponent of the Remain campaign probably felt compelled to follow his principles and announce his intention to resign, possibly in October when they have the Conservative Party Conference.

As for a timetable to find a Prime Minister to replace him, he merely indicated that there was no great urgency to trigger the Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty regarding the exit from the European Union, and that could be done in the next two years.  However, Mr Cameron will be glad to let his Party choose his successor, someone who is likely to carry favour with the Brexit campaign and could credibly negotiate Britain breaking her ties with the European Union.

There are some ardent pro-Exit campaigners in the Conservative Party, and it is probable one of them will become Mr Cameron's successor as Prime Minister, and thereafter engage in the process of extricating from the European Union. 

The European Union ministers were not at all happy to hear the news either.  No one could have imagined any member nation wishing to Leave.  It has left them considering a situation that once seemed imponderable. 

But the British public, turning out in huge numbers at the polling stations, on a day marred by rain and localised flooding, for which alternative arrangements were made to accommodate the voting, helped to deliver their verdict : 52 percent in favour of Leave, and 48 for Remain.  There was a 72 percent turnout, so no one was complacent or taking victory for granted.  It was simply the will of the people, delivered in numbers, that they were happy to break off with the European Union.

Now that it has happened, the Brexit will serve as a precedent to other countries.  It has given courage to the right wing or nationalist parties in other nations, and it is conceivable they too could be launching such campaigns. 

To several observers, it seems there was some direct co-relation between what could be considered deprived or neglected areas and the huge turnout for the Leave side.  The people were simply exhausted seeing their money go to Brussels, receive only part of it back, and having to suffer lack of hospitals, medication, school places, repairs to local infrastructure, lack of investment in jobs creation (with factories and houses boarded up) and such amenities.  All these citizens will not countenance the idea of added immigration, even the mere mention of it, which the European Union or some of the member states seem to suggest.  When people don't have resources for themselves, they are most unlikely to welcome other people to come and join in. 

Surmising from comments made to the press by MrDonald Trump (the presumptive Republican Nominee for President), visiting his golf course in Scotland, one of the issues motivating the Leave campaign was immigration.  And he sees the U.S. having similar grounds for conflict, and possibly his own election as President in November. 

To look at Brexit in a positive way on this beautiful, glorious sunny afternoon, I imagine the British government could certainly help the deprived or neglected areas in Wales and Northern England with the money they won't now have to send to the E.U. 

As for the E.U., their member states will always have the friendship and good trading relationships they have with the U.K.  In my opinion, the current Stimulus being issued by the E.C.B. will help a continuing economic Recovery among the Euro Area nations, and the strong phase of growth in the U.K. will enable exchanges both ways. 

Scotland enjoyed a tremendous Remain vote yesterday, and their First Minister, Mrs Nicola Sturgeon, has reaffirmed her nation's preference to remain part of the E.U., and perhaps might be calling for a second referendum to break away from the U.K. if needs be.  Perhaps they will now have to devise some formula for each part of the United Kingdom keeping their preferred alliance while at the same time keeping together.

Regardless of everything else, the United Kingdom will always maintain its part in the NATO alliance, of that there is at least hardly any doubt.  It is not without reason that Russian submarines were found in British waters, or trying to intrude in the airspace.  It is certainly a concern amongst the various nations that they would not like to be gobbled up by this superpower, who has ample land but likes to be mischievous. They can always playfully act they are keeping everyone on their toes.

Hopefully, there will be no love lost over this result of the Brexit issue; perhaps in most matters, all the various nations can continue to maintain and further their meaningful friendship and trade relations with the U.K., as before?  That would call for friendliness and generosity of spirit, which all certainly have.  In which case, this Brexit result will have been no bad thing.  In the cold light of day, it has thrown up lots of issues for consideration, and lots of possibilities where corrections can be made. 

I trust positive changes will come out of this.

Wishing you a joyful weekend.

Kind regards,
Durudarshan

(c) Copyright, but may be freely copied and distributed, with acknowledgement.




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