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|Posted on January 2, 2016 at 11:19 AM||comments (16)|
The chances are pretty decent of the worldwide economic Recovery continuing this year, with the promising possibility of enhancement.
Japan seems to have decided to continue its Stimulus, running at some $85 billion a month. This is gigantic for the size of their population, and guarantees the highest standards of living in the world to all Japanese citizens, plus a growing influence around the world, where their capital is likely to foster growth and development. For example, they have offered $35 billion to India for joint venture in developments of infrastructure, and this will certainly add to Japanese GNP.
India has done joint venture and co-operation treaties with Germany and France, to help develop some of the 100 new cities that Pradhanmantri Shree Narendra Modi announced at the beginning of 2015. Since then, he has visited China and Russia, and is signing up co-operation and trade agreements with every likely nation, including many in Africa. As a lot of Indians lived in Africa and grew up there, it seems India is taking an altruistic stance, wishing to repay with gratitude to their African brothers and sisters. This is a laudable gesture, and will enable the inherent and huge potential growth that is in places such as Lagos and Zimbabwe.
China too is extending its sphere of influence, Hon Xi Jinping visited so many nations and signing up trade and co-operation treaties. I can imagine joy for all these nations, where they will have expertise been made available to them, together with the machinery and transportation to fully benefit from their resources as well as create infrastructure developments which they so badly need. How can people not imagine dams, electricity, drinking water available on the doorstep, schools, dispensaries, hospitals, hotels, housing, tourists.....thriving economies....where God has blessed them with the rich fertile lands, mineral wealth, green vegetation, fragrant flowers, livestock to provide them plenty of milk. Africa is most likely to come up with the most number of billionaires soon....or if not, at least top social entrepreneurs who will instead contribute to their lands through holding together and creating business enterprises which serve the communities. If not dollar billionaires, these will be the enlightened spiritual billionaires who will do great good for their communities....at once, their people will have increasing standards of living. If the local African banks can back these entrepreneurs, they can create the development and wealth and growth that is the potential. I pray all these people receive the rich blessings from God.
The United States has steadily grown from the dark days of the 2008 meltdown to today, where the economy seems to have been totally restored, and is growing, with confidence, more jobs, more enterprise, more homeowners, more cars......Now the Fed will just need to fix the Debt Ceiling (in March, it seems). If they just expand the balance sheet to January 2017, the Obama administration will be home and dry, and all the senators and representatives can continue to collect their pay checks.
The alternative policies of the Tea Party crowd or Republicans like Donald Trump would see Obamacare repealed, and poor students being sent home due to lack of a free lunch at school. Those dark days caused due to sequestration are something that is best forgotten.
I pray Hillary Clinton shall become elected as the President at November 2016. Simply, it seems her destiny. It would resonate with the times and the perceptions of people today, everybody seeking self-expression in a democracy. Her election will enshrine the highest achievement in gender equality. That is a truth the people will not wish to hide, nor deny themselves. The time has come for this Democrat to rise as the dove, and sit in the highest office in the land.
She was very successful as a peacemaker in the Middle East when she was the Secretary of State. She has a natural gift for making peace agreements, and people trust her. She is a natural ambassador for peace. The world atmosphere will change when she becomes President, the whole tone of political relations will change, I believe, for the better. It is up to the people, to honour her, and elect her to the White House.
The One Trillion Eighty Billion Stimulus that the European Central Bank has rolled out has the promise of being extended beyond September 2016, as announced by their President Mario Draghi recently. That will offer ample scope for upgrade and innovation by the companies in the Euro Area (and by extension Europe) to meet the challenges of these times. On that note, the one thing the world is waiting for is the Juncker Plan. With reforms under way, Greece must surely be ready for it.
The low Oil price has depleted the reserves of the oil exporting nations, and their budget deficits have been bigger than envisaged. That suggests they will review their stance on cutting productions, and introduce some cuts before long; their stance has hurt their purses deeply, so some change may be expected. Russia too could follow suit, unless they are happy to foster a recession at home. Common sense would suggest oil price could begin to rise.....but when is only known to the bigwigs in OPEC and Russia. It is past the post-panic stage; it seems it is a time when they must be regretting not cutting back production earlier. And there would be no loss of face. Economic reality seems pretty harsh.
May I wish you good health and joy for the New Year.
Durudarshan H. Dadlani
(c) Copyright, but may be freely shared.
|Posted on May 13, 2014 at 3:59 PM||comments (12)|
The U.S. stock market has recovered and gone beyond where it was at the marking point in October 2008. I hear that even Lehman Brothers continues to make huge profits today.
The job creation in America last month was a bright number, at 300,000. My suggestion is if such a number was created for another five months, it would be reasonable to say that the economic Recovery has strengthened significantly.
No, that would not neccesitate further tapering. I am of the opinion that Dr Yellen needs to perhaps increase the QE by about $5 billion a month for the foreseeable future, until Recovery is complete.
At $45 billion a month, there is a shortage for the meantime to fund the social aspect, and cutting would have a similar impact to the dreadful sequestration, when poor students were being sent home because there was no provision for a mid-day meal for them. (Of course, the wisdom may be to ask them to bring their own lunch and provide them the opportunity for education, and keep them from turning to delinquency).
The U.S. housing market seems to have stabilised, but has still scope for improvement. While foreign investors and hedge funds will avail themselves of these opportunities, the American households are still holding to wait and see that there is sustained recovery in the jobs market with prospects long-term before they start to buy houses. I of course would suggest that they should consider now, when rates may be just edging up a little from historic highs and prices remain affordable.
On this side of the pond, in the United Kingdom, the housing market has just become stable. I don't see much upside this year, in view of cut-backs in social security for housing. A lot of the estate agents relying on government funding for housing have closed shop; and I see a few landlords putting up their big houses for sale. The time of easy regular income for landlords seems to be now over. It may be a good chance for the government to provide housing to deserving people on low incomes if the rents are actually downwards from the recent highs. That would make sense to the government purse as well as tenants.
Other than that the economy seems to be quite robust, with creation of jobs and employment opportunities for many, together with en masse creation of apprenticeships under the guidance and friendly policies of the Cameron government, which has been one of the most people sensitive government the Tories have formed so far. The multi-cultural cohesion and contented atmosphere is something to be appreciated.
The Greeks have got their economy improving, with 10 years Bonds at a yield around 6 percent. Not many moons ago, the yields were an exhorbitant 30 percent or so. The generosity of the European Union in bailing them out played a tremendous part in helping this situation to be reached. All European nations, flowers of the same bouquet, must rejoice. Spain is also seeing signs of improvement, and now that I hear of KKR looking to fund some Spanish bank, I guess the economy there will start to improve quite rapidly. The huge opportunity is there, for people who like the good climate and culture, to buy properties there perhaps for retirement, and even start businesses there, which could be a way to create jobs in Spain.
As governments adjust their policies to allow more immigration, especially to parts which are sparsely populated, more young blood can settle and rejuvenate the economies of the advanced nations. The ageing populations need looking after, and the young immigrants would be happy to come and work hard and pay their taxes, buy houses, cars, books, TVs, etc, etc. The economies would pick up. That will I believe be the second leg of Recovery.
I believe the future is very bright, as Recovery will turn to Prosperity, which could be even within six months. At least I pray for that.
|Posted on March 2, 2014 at 4:19 PM||comments (97)|
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|Posted on November 19, 2013 at 4:21 AM||comments (8)|
Good morning, readers. As the DOW passed 16,000 yesterday, I didn't write anything at that moment. Regular readers of my column/blog will surely know that I was one of the few to suggest the DOW would go past 14,000 - then past 15,000 (the magic of 15,000) - and only recently 16,000. I was of the view that the DOW could even do 17,000 this year, in the next five weeks or so. A thousand points in say 25 working days, is it possible? I shall wait to assess the markets further before I would commit to such a suggestion.
In the meantime, I imagine a lot of punters will take some money off the table, and put into alternative markets. India SENSEX has seen more inflows in last few days.
If not this year, then certainly I believe the DOW will hit 17,000 in next few months, on the proviso that the feel-good is assisted by the candy distribution, on which the panel will decide in the US this week.
That's all for now.
I wish joy and success to all my readers, in Netherlands, Fuzhou, California, India, Kenya, Tokyo, etc, etc.
Caveat : Everyone trades entirely at their own risk, I am merely sharing my views.
(c) Copyright 19th November 2013, Durudarshan H. Dadlani.
|Posted on November 10, 2013 at 11:40 AM||comments (9)|
Remembrance Day at the Ilford chapel of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints was marked by the Bishop and congregation paying respects to the memories of the heroes and heroines who gave their lives in the quest for freedom from tyranny and injustice.
How great a freedom we enjoy today as citizens of England is all due to the heroes and heroines who laid down their lives, as well as those valiant men and women who helped negotiate peace and brought forward this day into being.
Brother Jeremy Boyden : "We remember all those who made the ultimate sacrifice, like our Saviour, and we mark this day when peace was first agreed between all nations, on 11th November 1918".
The President's wife Sister Saltzman read a poem about Flanders Fields.
The Bishop's son, Brother Michael Onaolapo Jnr : "Greater love hath no man then He who gave up His own life so that others may live."
Sister Shannon Pickering, who was baptised in the Ilford ward two weeks ago, spoke a few words about the loving atmosphere that prevails in this land, thanks to people like her gransparents who did their bit during the war.
Sister Joanne Boyden read a famous poem, starting The glory shines upon my tears....She read the bit about hopes and expectations and stars and then became very emotional. (I asked her later; she explained that her Mother lost two brothers in the war). (For the Fallen, Robert Laurence Binyon).
Brother Michael Lighten paid tribute to the great example of Captain Noel Godfrey Chavasse, recounting events in the Captain's life in the Royal Army Medical Corp, who had to combine civilian with military duties at the front, where he saw within a few hours 189 casualties out of 600. Captain Chavasse worked behind enemy lines for four hours, just 500 yards to safety. On another occasion just 25 yards from enemy trenches. Altogether, Captain Chavasse saved the lives of approximately 20,000 men.
On another occasion, he worked with protection against an attack of mustard gas.
Noel picked up his torch, and rose up in his time, working against impossible conditions of mud, blood and water. Captain Chavasse was decoated with a rare second Victoria Cross. Such men are rare indeed, and we all recall his courage with awe and celebration.
"For their tomorrows, we give our today" John Maxwell Edmonds. That was the spirit of the unknown solider, great soul who's memory we salute today.
We stood and paid our respects to the memories of the men and women who have won the freedoms that have greatly contributed to the enjoyment of peace and peaceful life that England enjoys today.
Bishop Onaolapo made these closing remarks : "We are here because of the sacrifices the soldiers, male and female, have made for us. That is why the great atmosphere of stability and safety, friendliness and love prevails in this nation. I am sure this country will go from strength to strength because of that, and I am proud to be a citizen of this great country of ours."
I believe this sums up the congregations sentiments on this day, when we salute those whose lives were lost, as well as those who brought about peace.
May God's blessings be upon all.
(written by Duru-darshan
LDS Ilford ward)
|Posted on November 9, 2013 at 6:12 AM||comments (19)|
My thanks to the staff at these Search Engines for listing and indexing my website, and to Vistaprint for so beautifully hosting my website over last 28 months. It has built from strength to strength, drawing many visitors each day. Thanks to all :
Google (the multi-trillion dollar brain)
Twitter (tweet tweet to you)
LinkedIn (professional and so well defined)
Yahoo (book readers love you)
Bing (looks like people like spy thrillers)
and, just for good measure, a few porno sites, harmless fun is okay I'd say.
My blogs being read overnight are as follows :
- The ECB's 25 basispoint cut
- Stephanie Ruhle, CNBC interviewer
(She's actually an anchor for Bloomberg, working in New York)
- This is time for buyers to support Bangladesh factories
(American companies have done so, may blessings be unto them)
- Thomas Sugrue's review of The Last Great Prophet
- The Bank of America share price.
Yesterday I heard the news that China has experienced good growth and far from a hard-landing which people feared it is experiencing very sound growth, with PMI figures up and increasing.
One commentator has stated that China has several trillion dollars of reserves for investment, so I imagine the worldwide boom can continue. Today I heard that 80 percent of visas being taken for visits to Portugal are for Chinese property investors. This way, all economies with an open-door policy to encouraging property ownership and immigration would benefit from the Chinese wherewithal to sustain growth and Recovery.
If the Chinese sources are suggesting U.S. is looking for $561 Billion for next six months, it augers well for the U.S. that the jobs numbers were pretty good and growth potential is inherent in America, and it would be very probable that China would support such borrowings and support, as they have done in the recent past.
The luxury sector may start to rebound in China, who continue to buy Rolls Royce cars and jets as never before, and with the refocus on domestic consumption and increasing exports from China, it is apparent that the Honourable Xi Jinping is inspiring policies that will help the Chinese people achieve higher standards of living.
For stability and optimism into the near future, what more could the world wish for?
|Posted on November 8, 2013 at 3:42 AM||comments (6)|
The announcement of the 0.25 percent cut in the European Central Bank's benchmark rate is an indication that the economic Recovery still needs a great stimulus, and this was EU's way of getting it.
Only the day before I read that Adecco, the temporary staff specialists, were seeing increased signs of hiring of staff, and European economies are showing a sign of strengthening Recovery. It seems the services sector is growing, which is a good sign. As more people are out and about and travel, they need to sit down and eat.
The U.S. "shutdown" which at one point affected between 700,000 and 800,000 workers, who were told not to turn up for work and others who were furloughed i.e. had their hours reduced to only attend at peak-demand times - that "shutdown" saw reduced demand in travelling and catering across the pond. Here in London I have noticed a few cafes and restaurants mostly used by tourists close. And that was the effect of just a lull in a few weeks of trading.
At the moment, although there is a positive buzz, the uncertainity of the debt ceiling raise pending for 7th February is bound to weigh down on sentiment. It seems Senator Paul has indicated that Dr Janet Yellen will see confirmation of her nomination to the Federal Reserve's chairmanship, and the administration of the spigot can continue.
Feelings on this question are mixed, as the Chinese sources suggest that the U.S. is seeking about $561 Billion over the next six months. This would equate to roughly $93.5 Billion a month. That definitely suggests a phase of monetary expansion bigger than before, as the quantitative easing was running at some $85 Billion a month, cut by 1/12th with the Sequestration. If the stimulus could be so increased,
then that would definitely improve the picture of Recovery for next year. But in terms of reality, perhaps the $85 Billion a month will need to be restored, as suggested by Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew. No one liked the Sequestration, with scholars being sent home due to non provision of a mid day meal, not to mention problems with funding necessary upgrades to fleets.
It is good news that housing in the U.S. registered positive gains in 44 States last month, and when a stable situation arrives after the debt ceiling issue is resolved, better gains may be expected.
In the meantime, a stable and happy scenario is expected up to Christmas and New Year worldwide.
Chinese PMI data suggests a growing strength in the domestic re-focus as well as exporting sectors.
The United Kingdom is registering positive growth in housing numbers and GDP growth, greatly helped by the introduction of the Help to Buy scheme. Hopefully speculators and buy-to-let landlords are not assisted so much that the property market may become a bubble, causing soaring rents, homelessness and reliance on the social welfare system.
A mixed picture of optimism, with the Twitter IPO yesterday providing some amusement. The market seems to manufacture some euphoria, with the underwriters making good profits.
That's it for now. Very soon I'm off to the World Money Show, at the Queen Elizabeth Conference Centre not far from Big Ben.