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Durudarshan - Investment Analysis
Durudarshan - Investment Analysis
My Blog
Blog
Thank you search engines
Posted on November 23, 2013 at 10:02 AM |
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Thanks to the staff at the various Search Engines, especially Google, Stumbleupon, and Twitter, for traffic to my website and blog, viz www.durudarshan.co.uk/blog. Welcome especially to readers from Clounage in France and Bedminster, U.S. Lots of readers from these two places recently. You are firmly on the hotspots of visitors to my blog, thanks. People looked for Baba Ramdev clinic in Ilford. The location is Divine Supplements, 855 High Road, Goodmayes, not far from Goodmayes train station or Tesco. It is two minutes from the local Gurdwara. Open more often nowadays, their phone number is 0208 590 7900. Other friends looked for Mormon Chapel, Ilford. This is the church I go to, Sundays 10 am to 12.30, with other programmes later, like baptisms. It is right next door to Sainsbury's in Ilford, just round from Ilford Lane. Instead of a cross, it has the Prophet Moroni on top of the spire. Everyone is most welcome to come and visit, and join in the Sacrament and singing hymns. (I am a Melchizedek priest in this church, and would be happy to meet you on your visit). That's it for now. Soon I am going to the Romford Stake for the General Conference of our church. Kind regards, Duru-darshan. |
DOW passes 16,000 - where next?
Posted on November 19, 2013 at 4:21 AM |
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Good morning, readers. As the DOW passed 16,000 yesterday, I didn't write anything at that moment. Regular readers of my column/blog will surely know that I was one of the few to suggest the DOW would go past 14,000 - then past 15,000 (the magic of 15,000) - and only recently 16,000. I was of the view that the DOW could even do 17,000 this year, in the next five weeks or so. A thousand points in say 25 working days, is it possible? I shall wait to assess the markets further before I would commit to such a suggestion. In the meantime, I imagine a lot of punters will take some money off the table, and put into alternative markets. India SENSEX has seen more inflows in last few days. If not this year, then certainly I believe the DOW will hit 17,000 in next few months, on the proviso that the feel-good is assisted by the candy distribution, on which the panel will decide in the US this week. That's all for now. I wish joy and success to all my readers, in Netherlands, Fuzhou, California, India, Kenya, Tokyo, etc, etc. Kind regards, Duru-darshan. Caveat : Everyone trades entirely at their own risk, I am merely sharing my views. (c) Copyright 19th November 2013, Durudarshan H. Dadlani. |
Obamacare, some teething problems.
Posted on November 5, 2013 at 7:26 AM |
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It appears the Obamacare rollout has had teething problems, especially with the website interfacing. Perhaps they should have stuck with their initial design, just to guage peoples interest without putting them off by asking comprehensive personal details. It's like me asking you for your personal details before allowing you to read my blog. Good news comes from Professor Gruber's analysis of the figures that would need or benefit from Obamacare, and provided provisions have been pencilled in for the expenditure, the launch should be quite successful, after the rationale is accepted by Joe Public. It seems that about 14 percent of the U.S. population would need Obamacare, the other 86 percent are adequately catered for. Of the 14 percent, Obamacare seeks to enlist the young working people, who don't have any kind of health care provision. Once these people start to sign up in numbers, I presume the premium costs would start to come down. It has to be attractive for people to sign up, not a cumbersome figure that people would be unwilling to pay and indeed may not see the immediate necessity to pay if they are currently in good health. Everything being equal, most people would expect to continue to enjoy good health, and it seems a foolish waste of money to buy an insurance policy for health to most young people. However, good health carries no guarantees into the future, and it is against this that people need to have cover, seeing how people's lives are sometimes marred by ill-health and their careers written off. It is against this realistic look that young people need to consider taking up a policy to safeguard their future. (In Britain it is straightforward enough. Everyone is levied what is termed National Insurance, which is a fixed percentrage of one's income, and universally everyone gets medical cover under the National Health Service. Some out of personal preference for quicker or better service decide to take out additional policies with private health insurance companies. Side by side, the NHS and organisations such as the not-for-profit BUPA and Simply Health serve the population very well, in practical terms.) If lot more people show an interest in what Obamacare offers, presumably the insurance premiums would start to come down and encourage more and more people to sign on, so it would actually deliver what would become affordable health care. As the issue is debated and considered, I guess it will gather acceptance, if not straight away then over a number of years. Good health brings great benefits in enjoyment of life and work, creating a happy atmosphere and bringing prosperity to all, a welcome place. Kind regards, Durudarshan Dadlani |
Stimulus, Housing, Wall Street and Obamacare...
Posted on October 30, 2013 at 5:30 PM |
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The news from the Federal Reserve that it expects of maintain the Stimulus at $85 billion a month in bond purchases should have been great news for the markets, yet they headed slightly lower. The fact that there was no mention of the sequester was a bonus. The damper was I believe the news that Senator Paul is prepared to veto the appointment of Ms Janet Yellen to head the Fed. It seems the tea-party Republicans have been having a crack at bringing down the government for the last three and a half years, and they are trying to give it another go. Ultimately, it seems that good common sense will prevail in the good of the nation, and Ms Yellen may yet take control of the spigot and give everyone some punch for the New Year. At least the majority of analysts at CNBC hold that view, and people are expecting the markets to strengthen further : will the DOW test 16,000 before the year-end? The housing figures were disappointing, but you cannot blame the individual homebuyers. The air of uncertainity created by the previously on-going sequesteration cuts, then the partial government shutdown, then the delay in agreement on the debt ceiling raise, must have compounded to weigh down sentiment. Yet it seems the hedge funds have purchased lot of housing stock, and put it into the rental sector, and house prices have been buoyed up. This may be good for the hedge funds, but for the individual homebuyers it means having to begrudgingly pay rent instead of a mortgage, but a roof is a roof anyhow, and thank God for investors who have the wherewithal to buy and rent them out. Once the air is clear, and assuming the punchbowl is replenished, hopefully until the end of 2014, then housing Recovery should gain some stability. For the individual homebuyers, it will be a great point to join in in the party. Under Mr Obama and the Fed's accommodative policies, Wall Street has done well, now reaching for a record high. Money has been invested in equities, turned to working capital for the corporations, income for investors, and built up a substantial cushion for the pension pots and investments. So far, it has been a good reservoir of capital, and providing confidence is maintained, will continue to be so. What maintains the house should be good for everybody. Of course one or two senators may not care much. I hope they will not inflict a lot of pain on the system as a whole by sticking to their guns too rigidly. The climate is one for accommodative policies of co-operation, so that the world may avoid another recession soon after the longest one in recent history is hardly over. Just for the sake of humanity, they have to rethink the consequences of their stance. Obamacare is a great idea if it were like the National Health Service in Britain; but it seems the way Medicaid is being expanded to cater for the people who were previously without cover is placing substantial burdens on the system. Quite a lot of people are having to pay much more then they did previously in order for additional people to get cover. This just does not seem fair. Perhaps a parallel stand-alone system of walk-in centres could be sponsored by the government to cover people who did not previously have cover, so that those who were happy with Medicaid could possibly be happy with them once again. As I have remarked previously in my column, the NHS in Britain evolved for 40 years from the Poor Laws of 1907 to Royal Charter in 1947. Such a grandoise system cannot evolve in a short few years, and the teething troubles with the glitch in the computers may be the least of the problems. All things being equal, 30th November is not far away, for people to see how Obamacare is rolled out. I would have suggested even more patience so that a balanced, truly Affordable Health Care may evolve for the United States. Kind regards, Duru-darshan. |
How is the economic Recovery likely to continue?
Posted on October 28, 2013 at 8:34 AM |
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It has taken all of five years for the world economies to be restored to semblance of normality from the dark days of 2008. Remember those days when the interest rates were quite high in the advanced economies, anything from 4 to 7 percent - and that for the benchmark European Central Bank, Federal Reserve and Bank of England rate. The crisis created by the collapse of Lehmann Bros sent shockwaves throughout the financial system worldwide, with stockmarkets tumbling, loss of confidence in trade, fall in house prices, and a mood of pessimism gripped the world. At the vortex of the crisis, when Oil price reached $147 per barrel, according to OPEC AND European Union figures, about $250 billion additional bills were imposed on the European Union's oil expenditure, and what a terrible crisis it created, making transportation and manufacturing unviable in many countries, e.g. Portugal, Spain, Greece, the extra drain sucking the life-force out of the system. At the peak of the crisis, people who were earlier working in the textile industry were suddenly without work, and wondering how they would find their cod-and-chips. Enterprising young people and old were trying their hand at the e-commerce economy, and finding lot of work but little revenue. The Prime Minister of a sovereign nation which was so prosperous not so long ago was visiting the heads of state of various nations, asking for help. The social security systems were severally stretched, the tax revenues not corresponding to the new outflows. The interest on the bonds became quite high, to attract investors. Talented people from universities were not able to find opportunities to make a living. Demand on housing was as high as ever, but people didn't have money to rent, nor were banks willing to extend mortgages. Indeed, banks and loan corporations were suddenly unviable, after the property price plunge and bankruptcies of many individuals. Today, comparatively, there has been a return of confidence. Things are getting better. Spain, Portugal and Greece have seen their bonds become more attractive to international investors. But the worst is hardly behind us, yet the oil price remains so high. The pending closure of the Grangemouth Refinery is an indicator of the havoc the oil price plays with the balance sheet of such businesses. A business that was viable up until recently today stands in need of £300 million, with that it would support 800 jobs until trade is more favourable. This may be a microcosmic illustration of what could be in store for the OPEC nations, unless they decide to reduce the oil price to a level that is affordable to the rest of the world, and would give the OPEC nations an on-going stable income on a long-term basis into the future, and allow the world to breathe, and help sustain Recovery. It took two-and-a-half years after the high oil price knocked the economies for six for a return to some kind of normal business activity. Common sense tells me that the high price today will probably hamper growth for about a year-and-a-half, and it is already restricting growth and causing hardships in many places, e.g. Yemn, Kenya, India, and almost all the nations outside the G20. I WOULD RESPECTFULLY SUGGEST THAT THE OIL PRICE NEEDS TO BE BELOW $85 A BARREL. That would help the hard-pressed developing nations meet their bills from their depleted reserves or devalued currencies, and enabling continuation of trade with the U.S., China, European Union, Israel and indeed OPEC, which would create a dynamic of mutual co-operation and support that may help all nations thrive and develop all their potential. That is the missing piece of the jigsaw in the picture of a continuation of the worldwide economic Recovery. All the listening hearts of the world know what I am saying, and those who sit in positions of influence will do what is necessary, for that I pray. Kind regards, Duru-darshan. |
Hello Putian, Beijing, China....
Posted on October 23, 2013 at 3:29 PM |
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Recently I've had a lot of visitors to my blog and website from Putian as well as Beijing. I note the Indian Premier Dr Manmohan Singh has been to visit Beijing soon after his trip to Moscow, and things are looking good for co-operation on peacefully observing each other's shared borders as well as increase in friendly relations and trade. My personal hope is to become nominated by the Congress Party of India (UPA) as the Prime Ministerial candidate for May 2014. Should my wish be fulfilled with approval of Rahul and Mrs Sonia Gandhi, I would be thrilled and would go to India straight away to start campaigning in earnest. I have a vision for India as a good neighbour to China, Russia, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Afghanistan and the whole region, as well as to unlock the huge potential that there obviously is for growth of infrastructure such as roads, bridges, dams, power generation, further irrigation, as well as housing, hospitals, schools, universities, and so on, which would utilise the resources and cater to the public, as well as use the skills and expertise internationally in building up this great nation. I have lived in London the last 41 years, and see the n-th degree developments of this nation (United Kingdom) as something India could well try to aim for. I imagine that with India's resources both of the peoples' savings and growing expectations of improvements in living standards, it would fit hand-in-glove. It is regrettable that there have been skirmishes on the international border with Pakistan, especially just after Dr Manmohan Singh-ji had constructive talks with Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif in New York recently. Mr Nawaz Sharif has a great reputation as a man of his people and a positive personality, who would only wish the best for his people and continuation of peaceful co-existence with India. The Indian PM has offered bilateral talks on this issue to find a resolution, and I sincerely hope common-sense and peace prevails once again. I hope my readers will be able to make an accurate picture of what I would like to do, and I would welcome your comments on this matter. In the meantime, I wish you a peaceful and happy evening. Kind regards, Duru-darshan. |
Narayani Namastute!
Posted on October 19, 2013 at 12:21 PM |
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When I get so many readers from Kansas City to my blog, I think Narayani Namastute! Narayani Namastute! Yes, on the auspicious day of Full Moon, as it was yesterday, and with the conjunction of the debt ceiling raise decision in the U.S., I was wondering what the Kansas City Fed Chairman Narayanan Kocharlakota was thinking. I haven't read anything in the press, but he is normally an advocate of quantitative easing with deliberate measure. In this regard, again, it is early days to see a ballpark figure of the debt ceiling raise, and for the 4 months of January 15th, Congress has announced that the U.S. government will be fully funded. Their Comptroller is likely to know what that means, and how much money will continue to flow into the system until then. In the meantime, it must be a great relief that the shutdown has been lifted. Never again, I can hear everyone saying. People have lost income and business, tourists have suffered not being able to visit monuments and museums they may have especially travelled over the States to visit. The short but very long 14 days have cost the U.S. dear, to the tune of some $24 Billion in lost revenue and productivity. The lesson is clear, such a shutdown over an extended period would cause the economy to slow down, and the economy to lose something on the GDP measure. It is like an economy in good shape being told to trim down. Never again, I hope. As to the ballpark figure, my suggestion is $1.32 Trillion over 20 months, which works out at $66 Billion per month. After payment of some $60 Billion per month for the social security net, that leaves $6 Billion per month for enterprise and job creation. Jobs ranging in pay from $20 or $30,000 per annum to $250,000 per annum could be created, perhaps 300,000 or 400,000 per month. And he presto! within six months the U.S. would have whizzed on from Recovery to Prosperity. But that's just a ballpark figure I am suggesting. At current Stimulus of $85 Billion per month, maybe it could be different. In view of the regime of Abenomics in Japan and their Stimulus of $85 Billion per month, the per capita differential is in Japan's favour. It is a theme to be explored over the coming days. I am glad to note the global economic order has been stabilised after the agreement in the U.S. on the debt ceiling raise. As they all enjoy four months of relative calm and stability until 15th January and then to 7th February, I trust they will have this in mind and not give everyone, including themselves, a tough time. Certainly, the costings and implementation of Obamacare is something they can review and see how technically it would be best implemented. The beginnings of the British NHS took about 40 years in gestation, before it received the blessing as a Royal Charter in 1947 under the kind King George. Obamacare is by comparison in its infancy, and needs to be tweaked and explored before this very sound principle can bring benefits to the citizens and the nation. Kind regards, Duru-darshan. |
Debt Ceiling, grounds for optimism
Posted on October 15, 2013 at 2:35 PM |
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Sound bites coming out of Washington this morning suggested that progress had been made on the debt ceiling raise negotiations, but there was still some work to be done. Indeed, NDTV was stating that a deal had been agreed in principle, to the effect that there would be 'full funding' of the government till 15th January, and thereafter a debt ceiling renegotiation date of 15th February. If that is in fact so, that would be great news for everybody, at least they won't have to worry about the cold winds of November and can have a holiday and relax over Christmas before having to face the cold corridors of Washington in the New Year. People are counting on the House Fathers Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell to bring everybody to the fold and get some agreement in principle, so that it can be presented to the world latest by Thursday. Optimistically, everybody is waiting for such news. In the meantime the U.S. Budget Office is issuing advisories in the event that an agreement is not reached. Namely that in the event of a debt ceiling limit not being raised, the government will have run out of authority to issue any more money into the system. In the most unlikely event of that happening, the ramifications would multiply twelve times what has happened under the Sequestration. (The sequestration cuts totalled $85 billion over twelve months from a Q.E. budget running at $85 billion per month; hence one twelfth, so the effects of a halt would be magnified twelve times. This is just to put in context some meat for the doomsters. I cannot see the wise elected leaders of the U.S. ever leading America down that path, which would of course spell pessimistic scenarios for the world, as all nations trade with the U.S. and lot of people are engaged in producing something for export or working in calls centres and so forth which serves the major economies.) Ideally, everybody would like to believe that such an agreement will be reached and released to the world, that full funding of the government continues until January, and then once again they can face the cold winds of February to negotiate another debt ceiling raise. In the meantime, the funding will ensure U.S. continues to trade at full strength with the world, and create more jobs at home and abroad, creating a continuation of the Recovery that has gladly blessed this great nation. Japan is most definitely looking for an endorsement of the QE policies which they have implemented with a huge success, pulling Japan out from a phase of stagnation that lasted 20 years to what are glad welcomes of a Recovery. China likewise is re-focusing on domestic growth; how much better it will be if things continue in a positive way across the globe, so that there is work for the workshops, freight for the transport and the oceans, everyone doing something purposeful, busy, happy, earning their livelihoods, buying houses, cars, sending their children to schools and colleges and universities, a whole world procession in progress, the army of humanity. How wonderful it will be for those wise leaders in Washington to agree upon and then issue to the world the words that signal the continuation of the economic Recovery at home, and by extension to the world. I pray for this. Looking for inspiration yesterday, some words occurred to me, which I tweeted, as follows : "Have faith, just believe. Everything will be all right, by the grace of God." I sincerely believe that shall be so. Kind regards, Duru-darshan. |
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- A crunch point for Greece and the Euro Area. (1)
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- Read the Scriptures with spirit, and you will find the answers. (1)
- Greece - In or Out of the Euro system? (1)
- "Where there is peace, there will be prosperity". (2)
- The Golden Plates and the Inspired Translation of the Book of Mormon. (1)
- Why I feel optimistic about Greece (1)
- Mr Tsipras makes impassioned plea for help for Greece (1)
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- To Alexis Tsipras and the Greek nation - growth, Recovery and Prosperity. (1)
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- After the bitter pill, good times ahead for Greece? (1)
- Mrs Hillary Clinton for President (2)
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- Testimony at the LDS Church after the Blue Moon (1)
- So much money! (1)
- The Yuan adjustment (1)
- Greek national dance in celebration. (1)
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- Mountain of $57 Trillion, and a family worth 700 Trillion? (1)
- Good times ahead (1)
- I believe Japan should reduce their Stimulus (1)
- The Mormons (1)
- U.S. government funding till November 2016, please. (2)
- Bank of England rate unlikely to be raised just yet... (1)
- How can we perhaps have the miracle of Inflation? (1)
- Exciting times ahead for the world economy. (1)
- Some thoughts on Christianity (1)
- Enhanced ECB Stimulus would be an Act of Faith. (2)
- Creating employment, the challenge facing Europe (1)
- U.S. should extend the Debt Ceiling, Japan should taper, India should cut the rate, U.K. doing fine (2)
- With high energy prices, how can British steel industry survive? Yet survive it must. (1)
- Extended Stimulus by the E.C.B. and a 10 basis point cut seems good news. (2)
- Please, can they consider amending the Myanmar Constitution? (2)
- Poor inner-city areas a breeding ground for terrorists? (1)
- Heavenly Father, where art Thou? Can people share God's Umbrella? (1)
- Jesus, the Heart of Love for all Mankind (1)
- Cheers to the pre Christmas spirit (1)
- Touker Suleyman, who bought an ailing company for a £1 and turned it into a £27 Million tu (1)
- Loves and blessings for Christmas (1)
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- Historical blogs - of current interest. (1)
- Some thoughts for the New Year. (1)
- Basil leaves tea.... for reducing diabetes, soothing cancer (1)
- Musical Christmas celebration, by the Hyde Park Choir (1)
- Wish you a Happy New Year...Prunay le gillon, Oxford and New York. (1)
- Climate change? Unseasonally warm (1)
- North Korea's Mini Bomb....let us view it as comic relief. (1)
- A stockmarket correction before resumption of the bull trend? (1)
- The love of Christ - a strong enough foundation. (1)
- Work hard, and work for peace....that way may be the noble, dignified way forward. (1)
- Mrs Clinton holds Mr Trump on form. I believe she will win. (1)
- "I know for a certainty that He is coming back" (1)
- China is still very rosy, with re-focus of the economy (1)
- Now is the time for all good men and women to come to the aid of the Party. (1)
- Saudi Arabia proposing some welcome cuts. (1)
- Sister Akunne's good news...her exam pass, and continuity to work as a teacher. (1)
- Hillary Clinton, The Donald, the Tea Party? (1)
- How can the symphony of Recovery and Prosperity resume? (1)
- Good evening, Greek friends.... (1)
- The future looks rosy. I believe we shall avoid a recession. (1)
- Tolstoy would have been as Christ. (1)
- Year of the Monkey. (1)
- Swaminarayan Temple, Neasden (1)
- Testimonies of a Christian family (1)
- Hopefully, the ceasefire can lead to a greater Peace in Syria. (1)
- Syria Peace Talks to be arranged for 9th March 2016 (1)
- Shadow boxing? The night is yet young in the contest for the highest office in the world. (1)
- The U.S. Presidential race (1)
- Hillary Clinton odds-on favourite with the bookies, no wonder. (1)
- ECB 20 Billion additional stimulus, (1)
- The refugees from Syria - help for them, please. (1)
- The U.S. Property sector, creating $2 Trillion to the good. (1)
- The Republican candidates (1)
- Who will win the Presidential race? (1)
- Peace, as a rose upon stony ground. (1)
- Donald Trump would be good for a King, but not as President (1)
- Hillary for America. The Democrat faithful can make it so today. (1)
- The U.S. Presidential elections (1)
- Peace helps us not to fall short of the glory of God. (1)
- Further peace, lessen war and conflicts. (1)
- Peace and Prosperity ahead for 2016? (1)
- Tata Steel - could they find a buyer soon? (1)
- The Panama Papers (1)
- Go ahead, ask the banks for a business loan. (1)
- Would you borrow from your bank? (1)
- the British steel industry - and the E.U. (1)
- Hillary Clinton needs all the support in New York and California...and Redmond,Kentucky... (1)
- France, Germany, Brazil, India, Russia.....greetings! (1)
- It's looking good for Hillary Clinton.....and for Donald Trump. (1)
- India, shortage of water a national emergency? (1)
- Drought, and shortage of drinking water, in India. (1)
- Do you care about the young doctors? (1)
- Why don't the stockmarkets like prospect of a Republican win? (1)
- Sadiq Khan, Mayor of London. A celebration. (1)
- A further pierod of economic Recovery in the Euro Area,and Europe. (1)
- Hillary for America = America for Hillary (1)
- I pray for Venezuela, now suffering poverty due to fall in Oil price. (1)
- Brexit? Oh no, I believe it would be a bad idea. (1)
- Can Dr Yellen delay hiking the rate for some time? (1)
- Peace in Syria - something must be done to arrange this. (1)
- Is Brexit likely? Will Hillary win the Presidential race? (1)
- Will the DOW reach 18500, or even 19000? (1)
- My sentiments are to vote IN on 23rd June 2016. (1)
- Europe hopes Britain will remain In. (1)
- Brexit - a lesson for positive changes? (1)
- A 'damage limitation' excercise after Brexit. (1)
- Over half a million new jobs with a Brexit? (1)
- Progress in harmony, not disruption. (1)
- Steady growth for Europe for the next 18 months, by grace of God. (1)
- Could Mr Kuroda taper the Stimulus? (1)
- Ah so....Mr Abe's economic stimulus, authorized by Guvnor Kuroda. (1)
- Clarity will help the Euro develop into a strong Reserve Currency. (1)
- Donald Trump shall be a good great President (1)
- DEmonitisation may have a flaw (1)
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