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Honest Information, Profitable Trading

Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

My Blog

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Netherlands, Kansas City, Kharkov.....Welcome, welcome!

Posted on October 2, 2013 at 8:11 AM Comments comments (4)
It is that moment in time when the world knows the answers, yet some do not seem to.  For their narrow vested interests, they may be taking decisions which will adversely affect so many people.
 
Yes, point in question about the shutdown in the United States, affecting some 700,000 government employees who have been told not to turn up for work, because the two caucuses of the centrist Republican Party which is the U.S. Congress cannot agree the left with the right.  They would like concessions on many issues, which are not of prime importance today and bear some relevance to the great impending issue of the raising of the Debt Ceiling.  According to Mr Jack Lew, Secretary of State for the Treasury, the clock is expected to hit a top on 17th October, giving just about 15 days for the Congress to concentrate on this priority. 
 
The aggregate debt stands at a whopping $16.5 Trillion, but certainly that is not huge in comparison to the essence and integrity of the United States of America.  At last count, when the debt ceiling needed to be raised in August 2011, the Chinese Premier Hu Jintao as well as the Japanese leaders offered their continued support. 
 
The cash-flow in the system has enabled an ongoing Recovery, translating into much consumer confidence, demands on goods and services, and heatmaps of happiness across the world, in China, India, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Japan, Australia, Europe, Brazil, Venezuela, and every nation who trades, which includes all nations of the globe. 
 
Indeed it was a great gesture when the Federal Reserve opened the Open Window in Europe, enabling the Eurozone to borrow dollars and pump into their economies, creating much growth and momentum
in production and consumer confidence. 
 
There must be few people who do not see the benefits of a globalised economic powerhouse that is the world, where co-operation and trade between nations helps each nation produce its unique resources and exchange with the rest of the world.
 
I believe the world can confidently assume that the U.S. banks collectively have the wherewithal to underwrite the raising of the Debt Ceiling.  As Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan and other leading bankers meet with Mr Obama today, certainly that will be on the agenda of discussion. 
 
In August 2011 the U.S. banks collectively had over $1.45 Trillion, and enabled that raise.  It will be good news to hear what they may be willing to underwrite this time.  Certainly the money has swirled around the system, enabling people buy the houses and cars and television sets and sofa sets and iPads which they love, and swelled the coffers of companies such as Apple and Oracle and billionaire Carl Icahn.  All that is really needed is for such companies and people to continue to create more employment in the private sector, and for government to continue to serve the people effectively.
 
The lifting of the shutdown would be great, and would be welcome for people who are visiting America, so that their trips are joyful in seeing the monuments they have come to see. 
 
A rethink on what has led to the shutdown can only help the goodwill of America, and the prosperity of her own people.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 
 

Germany a good model of employment

Posted on September 13, 2013 at 10:04 AM Comments comments (6)
It is good news in Europe, with purchasing managers indexes up and house prices up in United Kingdom.  The unemployment rate edging downwards to 7.7 percent from 7.8 previously does not cause concern about the interest rate in the near term.  The Bank of England's benchmark rate can remain at the record low 0.5 percent for the foreseeable future, perhaps another three years, until unemployment falls to 7 percent, which is the peg  Governor Mark Carney has indicated.
 
But suppose, just suppose, employment in Britain were to pick up, perhaps using the German model of creating jobs?  There, according to Euronews, the unemployment has fallen to 5.5 percent, mainly helped by creating what are called Mini Jobs.  These are jobs taken by newcomers and students, perhaps earning a few hundred Euros a month for a part time job, or a Mini Job.  There is no contract, no holiday pay, let alone anything towards a pension.  It has no minimum wage.  The rate is fixed between the employer and employee, and lasts as long as there is work, without any guarantee. 
This seems a smart way of creating jobs, and enabling people earn something.  It is an idea that could be copied in other countries, labour laws permitting.  
 
It seems a good way forward to beat the dole ques, and get peoples morale up.  This could eventually help balance the national books.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Hello, guys, wear your thinking caps on...and read my blogs.

Posted on September 9, 2013 at 4:48 AM Comments comments (2)
Good morning, everybody.
 
I note that a few readers have been reading my blog overnight, especially on topics like Quantitative Easing, the Euro.  The most popular blogs have been as follows, if you wish to read them too :-
 
1)What good would exiting the Euro do for Greece?
2) Would Quantitative Easing or Credit Easing help?
3) Where's the potential growth for the future?
4) Where's the chocolate I kept in the fridge?
5) You can sense the sense of duty Mr Obama has to America
6) What the mind of man can conceive and believe, it can achieve.
 
I imagine you will hear some impassioned debates on TV and the media in days to come.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 

Good morning, everybody.

Posted on August 14, 2013 at 5:55 AM Comments comments (5)
I note my readers searching for Divine Supplements in Goodmayes.
The address is 855 High Road, Goodmayes, Ilford, IG3 9UZ, not far from Tesco, with ample car parking.
Telephone number is 0208 590 7900.  Shop is open only on Wednesdays and Saturdays, 10 am to 4 pm.
Other days by appointment. 
Mr Wilson there is one of the best masseurs, especially for Frozen Shoulder.
People over 75 years of age can get first massage free.
 
--------------------------------
Missingx.com  is a good website to track anything that passengers may have forgotten on British Airways planes.
 
--------------------------------
 
Anyone wanting to check my professional details could do well to check the volumes at public libraries,
or online, of : Marquis' Who's Who of the World (who have listed me since 1996) and
Stanford Who's Who (where I am listed since November 2011).  Look up Durudarshan H. Dadlani.
My e-mail is : [email protected]
mobile : 07505 830518
 
---------------------------------
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan
 
 
 
 

Oil price is far too high, despite accomodative policies

Posted on August 8, 2013 at 3:29 AM Comments comments (6)
For a continuation of the worldwide economic Recovery, in my opinion the price of Oil is far too high  - both WTI and Brent, which hit parity recently and have been both in backwardation on the far futures contracts.
 
The holding of or reduction of benchmark rates in accommodative policies is brilliant, and the only way forward.  The Australian Reserve Bank, U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of England are setting the tone for continuation of Recovery.
 
Mr Raghuram Rajan has been appointed Governor at the Reserve Bank of India, and assumed his post there on 5th September.  In his name are coded the most fond Hindu wishes in Godhead, just as they chant Raghupati Ragav Rajaram.  Hope he will set policies to utilise the various fiscal tools he has at his disposal, and help renew expansionary growth in the Indian economy.  It is noted that he is a gregarious, media-friendly personality, so presumably the world will hear more about what he has in mind. 
 
Oil price at anything above $85 per barrel is too high, and will continue to slow down the world economies.  When people are unable to feed themselves and their children in Yemen and other places, most of the developing world I would surmise, it is time for the OPEC nations to pause and consider what would be best for everybody.  Growing unemployment in South Africa (over 25 percent) and other countries, where social security is not a state policy, does not indicate a robust world picture.  It is imperative that the Oil price be reduced, for continuation of worldwide economic Recovery, which in turn will be able to sustain infrastructure growth in the OPEC and other nations. 
 
Israel with an unemployment rate of over 25 percent could do with international goodwill for their technologically advanced products, and a peace in that region can only help bring the oil price down and help the economies in that region.  In a cooling off of tensions lies the way forward to peace and prosperity.
 
Enlightened souls who help govern the policies, the duty is yours to do the needful.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

What's happening with the economic news?

Posted on August 6, 2013 at 10:08 AM Comments comments (12)
Recently I wrote about the Mormon church, about their production of a spiritual musical called Truth shall prevail, being staged at the Chorley, Preston temple in Lancashire.  My blog had over 1600 reads, mainly from Hongzhou in China.  Thank you, dear readers.
 
At the moment the most alarming news is from Zimbabwe, where President Mugabe has been re-elected, amidst complaints that the election has been rigged.  His comeback has been with the announcements of implementing policies of nationalisation of mining and natural resources companies.  Mr Mugabe obviously does not believe in free-market economics, nor does the devout Catholic believe in forgiveness, which he and inter-alia his nation received after he took over the white peoples' farms and handed them out to his cronies and their clans.  A nation that was once the bread basket of Africa has reduced itself to a state of constant shortages of food in the supermarkets, due to neglect of a farming sector that has lost its efficiency;  and loss of credibility overseas which have hampered imports.  Just like Zimbabwe produced the Billion Dollar notes and failed to appreciate that their currency cannot have the status of a world reserve currency, so now President Mugabe... but wait, this devout Catholic and clever student and man of the world will surely not fail to realize that nationalising assets belonging to international companies will lose international goodwill towards his nation.  And while it may be very profitable in the short term, in the long term it would be like taking a slow poison.
I pray President Mugabe's  good sense will prevail and he will not decide on such a brutal policy. I hope this man who likes to be portrayed on his country's postage stamps in the manner of a sovereign, follows policies which will leave his country a legacy where they can trade and interact with the rest of the world as a free market economy, for years to come.   Let there not be a time when the nation once again degenerates into a period of stupor and complacency, like recently when so many years were lost due to loss of goodwill abroad and lack of scientific know-how in the country. 
 
The kind gift of globalisation has been the awareness of the spirit that only with co-operation and fairness in dealings can all the nations prosper, by developing their natural resources and exchanging them with others on a fair basis.  To punish the intermediaries of such development, the international companies who operate within the boundaries and jurisdiction of every nation, would not be a welcome gesture.
 
Mr Mugabe's pronouncements have caused market jitters in the short term.  Hopefully he will heed the wise counsel of his Ministers and allow the development of his nation's enterprises continue with international know-how, expertise and capital. 
 
I have many friends from Zimbabwe at the church, and I wish them and their President well.  I hope Mr Mugabe reads my words, and heeds the advise I offer.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

Welcome, readers, my posts this month

Posted on July 31, 2013 at 1:52 PM Comments comments (4)
Hello, dear Readers, my posts this month have been as follows.  There was a slight problem with my Vistaprint site, and I was not getting the up-to-date statistics recently, so in case there has been a problem with the communication, I thought I'd bring you up-to-date with my posts :-
 
1)  Hello, Oakland, Cairo, Goma  16/7
 
2)  In God we trust, Charity, Spiritual and Temporal Blessings  17/7
 
3)  Detroit filed for Chapter 9 Bankruptcy  19/7
 
4)  Hello Everybody...Oakland, Detroit, Miami  21/7
 
5)  Could the Himalayan tsunami have been averted?  22/7
 
6)  Potholes, potholes everywhere...hello India   25/7
 
7)  Right selection, with confidence, will restore Prosperity  26/7
 
8)  Baba Ramdev shop in Seven Kings  27/7
 
9)  'I trust according to the spirit of God that is within me'  28/7
 
As always, I look forward to receiving your comments.  Keep them coming in- at lasts count, I had received a gratifying 806 comments to 1180 posts.  Wey hey, readers, I am glad to hear from you.
 
Wish you a joyful time in your activities.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 
 

Hello Everybody....Oakland, Detroit, Miami

Posted on July 21, 2013 at 12:36 PM Comments comments (1)
The Chapter 9 Bankruptcy of Detroit last Friday is a stark reminder of what happens to an economy when trust breaks down between communities and disrupts the social fabric, leading to decline and decay and a sad breakdown of an economy.
 
I understand from cursory reading of books on Detroit that the 1967 riots sparked off a distrust between the communities, and may have been the turning point for the breakdown of the economy which has now resulted to this sad, sad decline.
 
No two children of the same family will be totally understanding or obedient to their parent(s), but if family members work in harmony and common objectives, they tend to be more successful.  That rule of harmony holds true for organisations as well as for communities, there is no reason why it should not hold true for cities or even nations, hence last week I referred to Cario and Oakland but of course I should also have mentioned Miami.
 
Just imagine Detroit in the 1950s, which now appears to have been its heyday, full of harmony and enterprise, inspiring dreams, the American dream, contributing to its status as a city of great reputation worldwide, with its ballrooms, museums, theatres, skyscrapers....The industry and enterprise was there to give a livelihood to the 465,000 residents there, who soon grew to over a million and to nearly two million towards the peak.  The infrastructure was added to as it served the citizens and visitors, and the town grew to a city. 
 
The decline has seen people leave, mainly white people leaving the city to suburbs, leaving a ghetto at its core, the deserted buildings falling apart, now ready for demolition or refurbishment. 
 
The population has fallen, leaving the municipality with an income of about $1 billion a year, when it probably needs at least a billion-and-a-half just to service the interest on the bonds. 
 
A solution may be repopulation, with some company and a group of New Economy companies able to generate a lot of jobs and sustain the livelihoods of the citizens.  Obviously there is a lot of talent and raw energy, that can be purposefully employed and will create wealth and sustain the people and regenerate the city.  All that is now needed is for a few men and women of vision to locate their wealth generating companies there, and give a boost to the regeneration of the housing and public buildings.
The talent is there, you cannot stand and see a great city die.  Hopefully, the government can make a special provision for a funding programme to regenerate this great iconic city with its beautiful landmarks. 
 
As harmony exists between people, so will Recovery and Prosperity bloom in their midst. Today, I pray for restoration of faith in Detroit. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

Hello, Oakland, Cairo, Goma

Posted on July 16, 2013 at 9:12 AM Comments comments (2)
The people are not happy with the acquittal in the U.S. of George Zimmermann, accused of shooting dead the teenager Trayvon Martin.  It seems people both black and white and all ethnic groups are pouring out onto the streets of Oakland and Los Angeles, California.  According to the law of the land, the jury found the accused aquitted, but the people are not satisfied with this verdict. 
 
In the minds and hearts of the people protesting for justice for the late Trayvon Martin, the verdict delivered is not what they expected.  I don't know if they are likely to now lodge an appeal for a re-trial, but the current situation suggests that may be an option to cool people down. 
 
Meanwhile, in Cairo the pro-Mursi suppoters are filling the streets and the situation is far from peaceful.  Here about 20 million out of 86 million of the Egyptian people voted for Dr Mursi.  He seems to be the accommodative voice of peace and tolerance in this region, and obviously the U.S. were happy to see him in charge.  The Muslim Brotherhood under his guidance provides an orthodox but democratic brand of Islam, which itself means Democracy, and keeping within their cultural interpretation, are a progressive people.  The U.S. educated Dr Mursi and his supporters insist that the deposting was a coup d'état, counting on the U.S. to withdraw aid support for Egypt, which would hurt the nation.  An accommodative stance for the Egyptian military leaders would be to give Dr Mursi a position in the political top.   
 
Goma in the Democratic Republic of Congo is a sad place, a country that is blessed with fertile land, plentiful rain, and used to provide plenty when it was Belgian Congo.  Alas, the dam at Matadi which was built to generate a huge amount of power, probably needs technical know-how to keep functioning and potentially provide the power that could electrify a good part of that region.  It seems sad that a million people of bare means are often being driven round and round in circles by a military that must now become their well-wishers and protectors and guides, so that the potential of this region can find fuller expression.
 
My Facebook friend Marc Allen, the living apostle of New Age thinking, sees sea changes around the globe which will bring changes in the collective consciousness.  His words today inspired a recap of the above scenarios.  Humanity loves peace, and strives for justice.  It is part of the unfolding picture today and when the leaders make efforts to provide pragmatic solutions to the situations that face them, then hope is there peace will be restored. 
 
Mahatma Gandhi popularised the concept of Satyagraha - non-violent struggle for justice.  Martin Luther King found success for his struggle with this method, although regretfully his life was cut short.  In South Africa, the great soul Nelson Mandela is glorious proof of this philosophy. 
 
I pray for peaceful outcome to all these situations.  As we emit peace from our hearts, so may peace reciprocate  from those around us.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Oil price seems far too high to sustain Recovery

Posted on July 10, 2013 at 12:51 PM Comments comments (2)
The price of the West Texas Intermediate and the Brent crude, traded on the International Commodities Exchange (hence ICE) seems to be spiking upwards and will probably match any time soon.
 
The situation in Egypt may have caused that spiking, but since Egypt is not a major oil exporter, there can be no logical reason for the price of oil to be so affected.  However, perhaps the excuse is good that both prices move together in tandem, to create a global parity.
 
The Fitch downgrading of Italy's rating today may be contested; however, it indicates the weak state of the Recovery in Europe.  Similarly, the news from China that their boom is not so strong as figures had previously indicated (due to numbers which had been inflated) shows there is euphoria amongst the traders.   This brings a reality check, especially for the Oil price bulls, who perhaps will ignore the plentiful supply that currently prevails and the strategic oil reserves that are always there and have not been utilised for a long, long time. 
 
Why Oil price should be up under the circumstances can only be explained by some traders and commentators, whose kudos will be to make a fast buck or get some furthering of controversy on the grades and quality of oil.  Great talking points, but not anything to help the worldwide economic Recovery, which would suggest the Oil price ought to be lower.  I imagine the OPEC economists and Ministers would agree, to sustain their own economies on a growth phase.  If the rest of the world stalls, the reduction in their GDPs will automatically have an effect on the OPEC nations as well.  The world is a joined-whole, where development and prosperity moves hand in hand for all together. 
 
I have previously suggested that the Oil price needs to be under $85 a barrel for the worldwide economic Recovery to be sustained.  At that price, most of the infrastructure development in the OPEC nations can be viable, according to several Ministers comments that I have noted previously.  The current spike I hope will be only temporary, until the price starts to  trundle down once again.  Market forces and the situations worldwide will hopefully prove favourable.
 
Sometimes the numbers of contracts traded at higher prices are so thin; perhaps the reporting price ought to be based on a wider number of actual sales, from a reliable source. 
 
I will be pleased to receive your comments on this issue.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.