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Honest Information, Profitable Trading

Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

My Blog

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2015 may be a very good year, but caution ahead

Posted on February 6, 2015 at 7:09 AM Comments comments (12)
Two Thousand and Fifteen may become a very good year, for most nations.

In China, where they recently cut rates and introduced a Trillion Dollar stimulus, the dynamics of internal growth and development as well as for the export markets suggests robust growth.  The Honourable Xi Jinping is quoted as saying that China will achieve a new standard in progress.  His words are welcome, and should give heart to anyone who may be fearing a slowdown in China.  The actual production and shipments overseas ( I hear huge ship loads arriving in Britain, and for the first time in many years hear the trains ferry the goods across in the middle of the night in a huge procession) testify to that.

In the U.S., the start of Prosperity which I had foreseen for November 2014 seems to have materialised, and heatmaps of happiness continue to grow for the people there, with increasing numbers of auto purchases, mortgages taken out on single family units, more people in work both seasonal and permanent, lower Oil prices (although that is a mixed blessing), and good weather, apart from the recent snow.

I see the DOW going upto 18,500* by June this year, although the prospects for 2016 may be mild, with perhaps the saving grace of Hillary Clinton becoming elected as the President.  Sentator Jeb Bush is a strong candidate, but I detect the dynamics at play will ensure the Democrats will again have tenure of the highest position in the land. 

*I am just expressing my opinion, based on the logics of what I perceive.  People should speculate at their own risk.

The Oil producing nations will have to work in co-operation and ensure a stable oil price, otherwise their dollar-denominated revenues will not meet the cost of their imports, and may lead to ques outside empty supermarkets, waiting to buy stocks (g00ds) which are being rationed, as in Venezuela. 
It makes me cringe in shock to see the situation in Ukraine, where the rebels loyal to the Soviet leadership are wrecking havoc and creating ghost towns, where life seems at 1950s levels.  Mr Putin can be generous and call these people off.  He must extricate himself from this very messy situation.  It is doing no one any good.  Once peace is restored in this region, hopefully the Rouble will recover, and help people in Russia share the common prosperity that is developing worldwide.  Oil seems to be bouncing around levels which may be optimum, and which may prove good for everybody, including the newly formed shale and fracking operators.  Mr Putin has to apply the generosity principle, and help the kindred folks in Ukraine.  That conflict is just so unnecessary, it is just like bullying people who at one time Mr Putin was willing to big a brotherly hug.  I just don't believe it.

Under Pradhanmantri Shree Modiji, India is on track for the fastest growth since Independence, although the recent industrial productions figures at 2.6 percent seem so faint.  Provided the RBI decide to enjoin the procession of Recovery and lower the benchmark repo rate, things should improve.  There is a great natural appetite for investment into India, with the right atmosphere.  Creating a major air hub to compete with what exists in the Arab Emirates may be a good raising of the bar, but let us all wait and see what will actually materialise.  But in the meantime, the commencement of building a 100 new cities seems a great vision, and Modiji has my congratulations.  I hope his BJP policymakers and bureaucrats will ensure implementation and fulfilment of such measures.

The caution that I mentioned....while times are good, save a little for the future, and build some reserves for the second half of 2016, when it will all come in handy.


May the Lord's blessings be upon all.


Kind regards,

Durudarshan H. Dadlani


(c) Copyright. 



 





My blogs over last two weeks, w/e 8/12/12

Posted on December 8, 2012 at 12:39 PM Comments comments (5)
Hello, friends and readers,
 
My blogs over the last two weeks were as follows :-
  - Baba Ramdev medicine in Ilford
  - Gifts - for Christmas and all year round
  -  Goods lost on aircraft - check on missingx.com
  -  Austerity or Growth?
  -  The Fiscal Cliff
  -  Are people buying houses in the U.S.?
  -  Free money and government grants in the USA
  -  The Chancellor's Autumn Statement
  -  The situation in Egypt
  -  Interest Rates.
 
Top Referring Traffic and Search Engines were :-
   Stumbleupon.com - tops for many, many weeks running!
   Google - always up there!
   Facebook - also
   t.co - Hello stranger?  Where you been?
 
Thanks to staff at all above, for listing my website, and to the wonderful people at
Vistaprint who maintain my website in such beautiful condition 24/7/365.  Well done!  
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 

Finally, it seems the U.K. has started to pull out of recession.

Posted on October 25, 2012 at 5:45 PM Comments comments (2)
It seems the U.K. economy has just about started to come out of a long recession.  At least that is what the growth in the GDP of 1 percent for the quarter to September suggests.  The news came amidst some not so heartening news, of the closure of the Transit Vans division of Fords and a parts manufacturing plant in Dagenham, sore news for 4,000 plus employees of the giant automakers.
 
But the good news is that the U.K. is out of a recession, thanks in great part to the visitors to the London Olympics recently and the crowds who celebrated the Queen's Diamond Jubilee.  During the Olympics, some people were working 60 hours a week and earning good money, such a week is a good training for aspiring millionaires.
 
The American and European markets have see-sawed and hee-hawed recently, but I detect them now getting positive for the close of the week tomorrow.  There is just a feeling that everything will be okay, and improvements will happen.  By grace of God, that's how it should be.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

My recent blogs to 30th August

Posted on August 30, 2012 at 5:24 PM Comments comments (1)
My recent blogs are as follows:-
 
  -  Gratitude - a testimony
  -  Markets seem sideways for the moment
  -  The Paralympics - a celebration of human spirit
  -  The DOW Index - where to now?
 
Hope you continue to enjoy reading my blog.  I shall be happy to receive your comments.
 
In the meantime,
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 

My blogs over this week, w/e 25th August

Posted on August 25, 2012 at 10:08 AM Comments comments (1)
The economic news this week has been somewhat dismal, nothing inspiring to recap what is best not noted.  However, on the positive side, it seems car production in U.K. has picked up again, probably with good order books for export markets in developing nations.  The 0.5 percent drop in GDP was thankfully not at all bad, and the increased public sector borrowing may be a blip to offset the shutting of the Elgin platform in the North Sea.  The U.K. economy seems to be giving mixed signs, positive on balance.
 
  -  The "We must stick to Plan A" mantra is getting the wrong result.
 
The U.S. economy has entered a phase of consolidation of Recovery, with the housing figures improving as well as the manufacturing, tourism, transportation, food and other sectors.  These are leading indicators of a strong positive 2013 for the U.S.  
 
  -  Could the DOW Jones go up 500 points a month?
 
  -  Oil price is once again too high for Recovery
      (This is what will decide whether we are to avoid a double dip)
 
   -  A new reality
      (That's what readers have enjoyed reading early morning).
 
Hope you continue to read my blogs.  I'll look forward to your comments.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Oil price is once again too high for Recovery

Posted on August 21, 2012 at 7:09 AM Comments comments (2)
Oil price of  WTI at $96 and BRENT Ice at $114 currently categorically is too high to help sustain economic Recovery, and will start to drag on all the economies.  It has already caused slow-down in the aviation sector, although more people are inclined to travel and see the world.  The high oil price has meant airlines not being able to pay their fuel bills, and not being able to pay their staff salaries for last eight or nine months.  This is true in the United States, India, and other places, and has necessitated airlines mergers in Europe. 
 
When the Oil price peaked at $147 a barrel, it took out nearly $250 billion from the Eurozone.  That has probably contributed to a prolonged recession, which has not really left hold of the economies, where once again the toes seem to be in what could turn into a double-dip, God forbid, if corrective measures are not implemented. 
 
Talks of war in the Middle East should not be allowed to hold.  While it may aid some nations financially to have a higher Oil price, in the long term it will not prove to be of profit if the sentiment actually turns negative.  Recessions are very tricky pot-holes to come out of, and it has taken over three and a half years and still the effects are being felt worldwide.  Demand-destruction would be the next logical scenario.  A sustained period of six months of WTI at $85 a barrel and BRENT Ice at $100 a barrel would help everybody. While the world is in a sentiment of peace and Recovery, if everybody helps to sustain that sentiment and do the necessary, hopefully we will all have helped to avoid a double-dip, on whose brim the world currently stands. 
 
I sincerely hope the people who can do the necessary influencing will do so.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Olympians training may provide inspiration for UK economic recovery

Posted on August 8, 2012 at 2:07 PM Comments comments (2)
Whilst the British Olympians have blinged their way to Gold, Silver and Bronze medals, the highest par capita clutch so far, and behind only the U.S. and China in number of medals at the London Games, the U.K. economy is said to be flat-lining.  However, Bank of England Chairman Sir Mervyn King expresses hope that the Olympians' training might prove some inspiration.
 
Yes, inspiration is what imbues the human heart, and the same may be true for the economy.  Just as the athletes keep their goals in sight although some time and distance away, they continue to put in their faith to be able to compete and win....In that spirit, they work hard at their sport and keep in training, trying always to better their time over distance, building their stamina, and strenghtening their resolve to win, by the grace of God. 
 
To use the sporting metaphor, when the athletes need water, it is no point to reduce the price of water, but to make sure water is available along the route.  Similarly with the economy.  Cutting the interest rate from the 0.5 percent may help, but money has to be available readily for commerce and industry - then of course production as well as consumption will pick up, there will be confidence to export and trade will grow further... There is always demand for British products overseas, be it biscuits, detergents, water pumps, vans, farming or building equipment. 
 
The Credit Easing and stimulus the Bank of England has announced in the recent past will prove fruitful when it starts to feed through, if the High Street banks ensure that money is actually loaned on to customers, for purchase of cars or houses, investing in upgrade of run-down restuarants and stock-filling. 
 
If the economy grows domestically as well as internationally, the resources the UK has at its command will have served well. 
 
Let's live in hope and faith, as the Olympians have done, and throw out the remnants of doubt and recession out of the window.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Is the DOW Jones Index going to try for 15,000 by the end of the year?

Posted on August 7, 2012 at 4:10 PM Comments comments (1)
Remember the mantra : 1500, 1500, Fifteen Hundred? 
 
Ron G. Holland's incantation of 1500, 1500, lay me down to fifteen hundred, I must have fifteeen hundred, I'll sleep fifteen hundred, I'll wake up refreshed fifteen hundred, I'll swear by fifteen hundred, darling lay me down to fifteen hundred, I must have fifteen hundred, fifteen hundred, I'll dye if I don't have fifteen hundred......
 
Similarly, "If you can see it, you can be it
                   If you can see it, you can do it,
                         If you can see it, you can have it."
 
So, the mantra could start collectively, Fifteen Thousand, Fifteen Thousand, and on.
 
The trajectory seems to be time and price related, reaching for fifteen thousand.  Caveat, other factors must be in favour also, for example, money (investment pressure), investor appetite, market liquidity, authenticity, integrity of the market, and the belief collectively that the market can be trusted....Then it may, just may, be possible.
 
Ron G. Holland is a best-selling author, and an advocate of philanthropy, supporting donations to Habitat for Humanity, a worthwhile cause indeed.  His books are pure gold in the wisdom that can be applied in any field, be it salesmanship, authorship, sponsorship, sportsmanship, whatever else.
 
As Ron says : Onwards and Upwards!
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

The Olympics Feel Good Factor

Posted on August 6, 2012 at 12:26 PM Comments comments (0)
The Olympic village in London has taken up the lion's share of £9 billion over 7 years to construct some first-class venues and housing for 10,000 atheletes.  The Games have attracted 5 million visitors physically to the sites so far, and many millions more via television and other media.
 
When I hear that some atheletes had some music systems stolen from their flat at the Olympics village, and Scotland Yard has not been able to cast any light on this, you don't get a most positive impression.
However, knowing the British police system, such breaches will be thoroughly investigated and the security measures strengthened as necessary. 
 
The feel good factor of so many of Team GB winning medals, especially Jessica Ennis, Greg Rutherford and Mo Farah within an hour last Saturday, reaffirms the benefits of this nation living as a harmonious multi-cultural society, affording opportunities to all and sharing in the victorious achievement of their potential.  The buzz of winning so many Gold medals is infectious, bringing a vicarious thrill to each and all. 
 
I guestimate that London will have recovered £3 billion within the 8 weeks of the Olympics and Paralympics, from ticket sales and tourism, and the Olympic village housing, which is world class as most will agree barring the incident of the theft mentioned above, will soon bring in visitors and locals alike who would love to stay there.  The Olympics village could provide world-class training facilities in a temperate climate to national contingents who may wish to avail themselves of such facilities. 
The per capita win of medals of Team GB is inspiring.  It must be something in the fresh air of this free country that nurtures such spirit.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

My blogs over last 7 days, to 5th August.

Posted on August 5, 2012 at 5:15 PM Comments comments (0)
It's been so hot, and people are interested in watching the Olympics in London.  Team GB have done everyone proud in Great Britain.  This nation which has the winning style will certainly throw the remnants of recession out of the window.  What recession? Britain will be gleedfully asking.
 
My blogs over the last 7 days to today have been as follows :-
 
   Huge potential in India
   American jobs figures seem good
   RBS to be nationalised?
   Books or information creates perspective
   Who competes and how do they win at the Olympics?
   Tithe for Prosperity, follow the Scriptures for Rain.
 
Thanks for your visit, and I hope you continue to enjoy reading my words.
 
Until next time,
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
Durudarshan - Investment Analysis.