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|Posted on March 10, 2013 at 3:11 PM||comments ()|
I think so. For the first time, there is sign of growth in Greece, with unemployment falling, the Greek Bonds at just over 10 percent (compared to the unsustainable and unbankable 40 percent not so long ago, before Greece received the massive bailouts and the haircuts).
There is huge potential for the Greek economy to bounce back and be on track to sustainable growth. Of course, the most blatant pointer would be some of their legislation, which is keeping shopping areas like ghost towns. Red tape with establishing shops should be cut down, so that people do not need to make so many applications to the council and muncipal authorities just to open a shop. There should be just one certificate, saying the council agrees that a shop of a specific type can be opened in a certain patch of town. That is all, and once that happens, it will create self-employment for people as shop-keepers, for people as shop assistants and so on. And the economy will start to pick up, with goods being despatched from warehouses, delivery vans delivering the goods, people walking around in the shopping centres, and so on. Someone, that will breathe life into the economy. And when people see busy places, they feel safe, it feels good, it gives people confidence to spend. Tourists would go to such places, and everything will improve. Think of retsina and ouzo people will be drinking with the delicious Greek cuisine.
A similar pattern will develop with Spain, and I guess the property markets there will pick up. After the 39.5 Billion Euro injection they received recently, I understand Blackrock the American investment group have started to take up investments in Spain. That is a good indication of improvements to come.
Poland and the Zloty were doing very well, but on a very conservative mind-set and interpretation of the headwinds, the Polish economy seems a bit neutral at the moment, but given renewed confidence in the other markets, could very well pick up. I believe they will, as the positive signs from U.S. and China feed confidence worldwide. At least, I pray so.
|Posted on October 19, 2012 at 1:37 PM||comments ()|
There seems to be just a touch of negative sentiment in the air, which, together with profit-taking, have sent the markets heading down.
First, the positives: No matter who wins the U.S. election, the markets will go up. That seems to be the sentiment, confirmed by David Blitzer of Standard and Poors. Same sentiment was being expressed by Chief Analyst of Piper Jaffray some while ago, based on research into U.S. Presidential election years.
If Mitt Romney wins, then there's a "hoard of cash waiting to go into the markets" according to David Blitzer.
The economic data out of China suggested a soft landing, a happy picture, with the indicators moving upwards currently, meaning a saucer shaped upturn. The official China economist smiled benignly as he realeased this information.
Some people conjure up the negatives, with reference in the press and media to the Black Monday that happened 25 years ago. Well, the power lines are clear, communications to brokers have not broken or anything, you can still get pretty full coverage of news on TV and Internet, and the weather....well, it is mild. Some market participants would be happy for some Black Swan event, then their short bets would make a lot of money. It may or may not happen, I don't have a crystal ball, nor have I taken any position in the market, so I do not win or lose either way.
However, it is my belief that the DOW will head upwards, possibly heading for 13,700 plus towards the end of this month. Based on the natural trajectory to 15,000 by the end of the year, I start to believe Mitt Romney will win. I know it sounds absurd to say it like this, but markets and their likely technical movements most often foretell even natural events such as rivers flooding or earthquakes or tsunamis.
On the other hand, even perfect formation on the Ichimoku charts have been known to fail, such as happened at the time of the Fukushima disaster.
All in all, I believe in the positive picture, and the markets and the weather will probably reassure us all next week. I hope so anyway.
|Posted on September 30, 2012 at 4:41 PM||comments ()|
Today was the day of fast for us followers of the Latter-Day Saints church, also known as the Mormons.
Well known personalities amongst others are Donny Osmond and Mitt Romney, who is a Bishop of the church.
The Bishop in Ilford is Bishop Michael Onaolapo. He always impresses me with his geniune good natured greeting and welcome. He has built on the success of the Romford stake, which is the fastest growing in terms of people joining the congregation. His testimony today is an inspiration. He says when we reach out, in Home Teachings for example, we should look at the temporal and spiritual needs of the members visited. A lot of our members are facing challenges and problems, a lot are not. But whatever service we do to reach out, we should "do out of love, doing the Lord's work. He will bless us."
"After years of sacrifice and patience, and being faithful and being obedient, they saw Prosperity return," the Bishop mentioned an example (but in the foreseeable future it may be India or Spain, it certainly sounds like America and Europe). "He will answer our prayers in His time. In love we are His children, and He will never abandon us." Our Bishop is a man of immense faith, as he has seen God's answers to prayers in his own family and his congregation.
Today's testimonies were on the topics of sacrifice, the benefits of tithing and the fruits of faith and belief. I will leave you to meditate on those topics, noting from the various speakers that the benefits are real and our trust is valid. "In love, we are His children, and He will never abandon us."
(written by Duru-darshan,
Melchizedek Preist at the
Church of Jesus-Christ of Latter-Day Saints)
|Posted on July 20, 2012 at 12:52 PM||comments ()|
I am glad to note people enjoy reading my blog and website. My blogs this week so far were as follows :-
- The U.K. Chancellor's measures to combat a double dip.
- "Heavenly Father, are you really there?"
- Fed Chief Bernanke on the Fiscal Cliff
- A preview of Terry Pratchett's Dodger
- Oil price is once again a little too high.
If you wish, you can read these and my other blogs (over 960 so far) at :
|Posted on June 21, 2012 at 4:21 AM||comments ()|
"Excellent question, but actually....Well, you know ( I feel flumoxed...If I knew the answer, we wouldn't be in the mess we are currently in, and you wouldn't be asking me the question...Know I mean?")
I think that may be an honest answer to some of the Q&A sessions nowadays, which seem media-managed by pre-selection, where each invited media representative asks two convoluted questions and the person being questioned plays cool and gives answers which seem in-house but not comprehensible to the audience watching the TV or listening to the debate.
Is it any wonder that solutions are not being found, to fundamental questions as to what ails the economy, and what can be done about it?
If simple questions were asked, maybe we would get more sense out of it.
Until my next blog.
|Posted on June 18, 2012 at 10:49 AM||comments ()|
The whole world is looking for stability and continuation of the Recovery, as common sense wins the day in Greece. It is to be hoped that they form a logical coalition, with alignment of aims that will bring continued support of the economy as well as a calm and happy purpose to the Hellenic nation that will help boost their tourism industry and promote the creation of jobs and industry...A cheer went up in the stockmarkets throughout the world at the win of the New Democracy Party under Antonios Samaras. Now this very gentle leader must display the steel he is made of, and be decisive in choosing his coalition partners and set his agenda.
He made an offer to Alexis Tsipras of the Syriza Party, which was not taken up, to form a Government of National Salvation. This is a lofty ideal, and towards this end now the logical formation will be with the Pasok Party, who too are pro-bailout and have very capable strong leaders in Evangelos Venezelos and Lukas Papademos. Together, they can restore international confidence in Greece, as well as inpire their nation to rebuilding their economy. Evangelos is well known for his ethic of work, work, work, and with him in the cabinet the latent energy of the unemployed workforce will be turned to productive use and turned into jobs and wealth, which will help restore the economic balance.
The whole Eurozone seemed very happy to see the victory of Antonios Samaras, and, in view of the ascendency of the anti-austerity government of Francois Hollande in Paris, the European leaders have been voicing their agreement to being more understanding. The first signs were the yields dropping on the Greek bonds by about 2 percent. The Greek nation must now capitalise on this tone of goodwill, and set sail for Recovery and thence to Prosperity. For this, I pray.
|Posted on June 2, 2012 at 10:59 AM||comments ()|
My blogs starting Sunday, were as follows :-
Sunday - Oil price, still too high
Monday - Bankia
Tuesday - Bail out funds should be productively employed
- Have you read Think and Grow Rich?
- Stimulus for UK?
- Hello, Kiev, Lvov, Football Cup..
Wednesday - India GDP slowdown - healthy 5.3 percent for last Quarter.
Thursday - Every cloud has a silver lining
Friday - "Powerful and mighty is the human mind".
If you are following a theme, you can read my other blogs at www.durudarshan.co.uk/blog
|Posted on May 28, 2012 at 4:54 PM||comments ()|
Granted the markets in the U.S. were closed for Memorial Day, the price of Crude Brent at $106 per barrel seems very high, especially in view of the improving warm weather and the huge stockpiles of Oil, both storage and strategic supplies. Couple this with what the Saudi Oil Chief, Sheikh Ali Al-Naimi emphasised a few weeks ago, "there is no rational reason for the price of crude to be so high".
Recently, chart readers will have noticed the price falling below the 200 day Moving Average, that coupled with all the above should mean the price heading south over the next few days and weeks.
I have no position in the market, but I sincerely hope that proves to be a fact, as otherwise the economies which are already in a slowdown will not have the help they need for a Recovery, and that would not auger well for the global economy as a whole. I pray that that scenario can be avoided.
|Posted on May 22, 2012 at 12:28 PM||comments ()|
It has just occured to me, just like Eureka! Optimisation may be the concept that could lead to economic Recovery, not only in Europe, but everywhere!
The European Central Bank could encourage industrialists as well as managers of SMEs to borrow some of the huge mounds of cash they have. Some days, I read that 720 Billion Euros are being parked with the ECB overnight, but hardly few hundred millions are being borrowed on any given day. Europen commerce and industry must develop a bigger appetite to borrow and invest and create wealth....work creates profit and wealth. That will be the way forward.
As for Greece, if the population there collectively decide on whether they wish to stay in the Eurozone or pull out, then they can determinedly move forward in some one direction, without causing jitters around Europe and the world. There is the great idea of using the sun and wind that Greece is blessed with to generate solar power and wind power, and sell that onto the rest of Europe. Huge investments would be needed; where would that come from?
Once there is direction, and investment to bring it into reality, work will be created for many people.
Just think, when there are empty houses and commercial buildings, and there are people looking for work, and banks who don't seem to find borrowers, the solution may be for government involvement - like a Father may guide his children. An economy that works like that, would do well.
The concept of Optimisation in the economy is this: Instead of giving social security, give people work, so that it saves on giving social security benefits and housing benefits and instead giving people a pay-cheque so that they can buy houses, pay taxes and so on and on. The empty houses would become filled, as would the empty shops and offices and industrial warehouses, and the economy would once again begin to thrive. The fiscal deficit would be cut, with revenues on the positive side. The national books would get balanced. And an unnecessary recession (soon after the longest recession in recent history) would be averted, bringing joy to all citizens. Heatmaps of happiness, like heatmaps of green.
|Posted on May 21, 2012 at 3:58 AM||comments ()|
Words from Mr. Tsipras, the leader of the left-wing party contesting the election in June that Greece would not exit the Euro should reassure the markets. After all, it is the most logical choice to stay within the Euro.
Suppose that Greece were to exit the Euro, then what? It would be painful for Greece, which has suffered 5 years of economic decline and whose bond yields for the 10 year are at 28 percent or so. Nobody in Greece would like a continuation of that, and thankfully with the very generous bailout they have negotiated under the government of Lukas Papademos and Evengelos Venilezos, the prospects for the future are likely to improve.
Some of the biggest owners of supertankers were traditionally Greek, and with the pick-up in that sector, which itself augers well for the world economy as a sign of improving trade, augers well for Greece.
Suppose they were to exit the Euro and reinstate the drachma, then what? Without the aegis of the Eurozone, lot of their imports would be on a barter basis, which would bring lots of restrictions.
The Euro is a young currency, but it is the Mother currency of seventeen Eurozone nations. It would be only fitting that all nations pledge support for the Euro and the continuing stability it brings to all the nations. With implementation of a liberal mix of command economic policies (as the nations have social security net) and laisse-faire as they are all free market economies within a region, trading globally with China, U.S, OPEC, Australia, Canada, India, Africa and everyone else will bring and contribute towards a picture of continuining worldwide economic Recovery. For that I pray.