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Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

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The magic of human chemistry.

Posted on June 23, 2013 at 4:50 PM Comments comments ()
There is something about the chemistry, about the language and communication of the mind and soul, which brings people together or drives them apart.  It is this chemistry between people that I would blame for.....or, rather, a change in the chemistry between people that I would blame for separation and divorce. 
 
I am surprised that Napoleon Hill was not given the Noble Prize, but then again there is no category in the Noble Prizes into which his work fits.  Perhaps, on that point, I would suggest there should be another category created by the Trustees of the Noble Foundation.  The Increasing of Human Understanding.
 
Napoleon Hill interviewed 500 of the most successful people in America in the 1920s, and from those interviews he wrote many articles, published in his Hill's Success Magazine.  But a few people made a huge impression on him, viz Andrew Carnegie, Firestone, Henry Ford, Dr.Alexander Graham Bell, and Dr. Thomas Alva Edison.  And yes, Mr Edwin Barnes, who said it could not be done, that is to say, the writing of a blueprint for success based on the interviews with successful people.
 
Napoleon Hill turned that into a questions: Who said it could not be done? and went on to publish his Think and Grow Rich, a book that sells well throughout the world, in many languages, in number just after the sales of the Bible, Koran and Bhagavad-Gita and other religious masterpieces.
 
In his research, Napoleon Hill says that the first three years of a marriage often have petty squabbles and friction, but the love that exists between the two will carry it through.  The next fifteen years are those in which the lucky couple start to look alike in their eye movements and thinking, influencing their value judgements and expressions, meaning the happy couple have achieved understanding of one another, and a state of harmony exists between them that we attribute to the magic of chemistry.
A state of harmony, an instinctive understanding, an automatic understanding of mutual goals. It is like both have the same road-map, or at least complementing road maps.
 
Those for whom a partnership does not work, it seems are rather like a horse-drawn carriage where the horses want to pull in differing directions.  Where it is not possible to bring harmony of direction, abandonment of the journey becomes the alternative.  Such is what happens in business partnerships as well, and in politics as well.
 
A question that may help bring harmony back is : What was the road map that brought the partners together in the first place?  Can it be modified and restored?  If the answer is Yes, then hope still remains for reunion and success.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 

Hello Simferopol !

Posted on June 3, 2013 at 4:09 PM Comments comments ()
Thanks to readers today from Simferopol. I know you are in Ukraine. 
I looked up Simferopol on the internet.  I got a webpage saying "From Russia With Love".
Romantic love is something people like, including me of course. 
I noticed a story about Lynn the missionary getting married to a local brother in your city.
It has the old world kind of air, with blue trams, and people sitting in a church or something
holding orange hymn books or singing a song (I say that because of the chap standing up, probably conducting the music.)
You have a beautiful city, with a pride in its heritage.
 
Seems like a good place to visit.
 
And as Ukraine merges with the European Union, I hope the powers that be can seriously consider
adjusting the Euro so that Ukraine gets a level start.
 
I have great admiration for Yulia Tymoshenko, who through her noble act on a freezing cold Saturday helped to save people in Europe from freezing to death.  I hope she can be pardoned and allowed to live with her freedom.  She should even be celebrated.  She is a great person with a great heart.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 

Interest only mortgages, what's the fuss?

Posted on May 2, 2013 at 6:40 PM Comments comments ()
I don't see what the real fuss is about regarding the Interest-only mortgages.  
 
At one time, people used to buy interest-only mortgages side by side with an Endowment policy, that would hopefully build up and mature into the principal sum owed on the mortgage.
 
Then, people did a smartness.  They cancelled the endowment policies.  That meant their monthly outgoing was lower than on a Repayment mortgage, and they had relative security of a roof over their head which was cheaper than renting.  And that is the light an Interest-only mortgage should be looked at.
 
Often, it is cheaper than renting, and if there is a surplus over the price paid to buying price of the house, that's the icing on the cake.  If not, at least it is a secure roof for as long as you continue to work hard and pay for it, meaning it is cheaper than renting and you are your own landlord.
 
So if it is cheaper than renting and you have pride of ownership, then at the end of the mortgage term if the house doesn't belong to you should not be such an awkward question.  That's the reality of it.
 
However, if property prices improve (and they probably will in England over the next four year I believe, going by previous house-price cycles) then there may to nothing to worry about.
 
The U.K. economy will recover and strengthen in the coming months and years, as growth continues in the U.S. and China, not to mention huge growth in Africa (where they regularly discover some hidden Oil resources, potential for building towns and railways, etc, etc) and an improved outlook for India, in my opinion, where the current UPA Congress government has published figures which show a steady improvement in standards of living, declining mortality rates, better nourishment for people, it is such a promising picture....If the Oil price is cheaper, all economies will grow and prosper, including the oil exporters, who will have sufficient income to sustain their infrastructure growth and prosperity of their people. 
 
Look forward to the future with optimism;  the ECB rate cut today to half percent should give added impetus to growth in the Euroland, to complete the global picture.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 

Bailouts and the Fiscal Cliff

Posted on December 10, 2012 at 10:18 AM Comments comments ()
As Spain gets ready to receive its bailout package of 39.5 Billion on the 12th, the markets are wondering who will next ask for a bailout?  Could it be Ireland, Cyprus, Portugal....?
 
Originally I thought Italy would be next in line, but Signor Silvio Berlusconi's announcement that he's withdrawing support for Premier Mario Monti and thinking of standing again for the Premiership has caused upset in the Italian stockmarket.  Today, it has gone down 3.5 percent upon hearing that Mario Monti, the technocrat Prime Minister who has helped Italy steer a steady course in recent months, is considering resigning if his support is withdrawn.  The yields on Italian bonds have started to go up.  How patriotic would it be for Signor Berlusconi to come back centre stage now?  It would be more patriotic in my view for Signor Berlusconi to support Premier Monti's government.
 
The debacle in Misratta and the aftermath, when bond yields just shot up and have had to be hoisted down, is something that will come back to peoples' memories.  It is an episode not worth repeating.  As Italy makes steady headway to Recovery, the greatest act of patriotism would be for the Signor to back the Premier, and the Premier to stay on, confident in the belief that he is steering the right course of action, and without him his country will become rudderless. 
 
Activity from Lisbon suggests Portugal is also hoping for a bailout, as is Ireland, and as is Cyprus.  They probably could do with about 10 Billion for a year each, to lay further foundations for Recovery. 
 
Superstorm Sandy dealt the U.S. a savage blow, right in the middle of the Presidential election.  Hoboken, Staten Island, Lower Manhattan were all badly flooded, and the announcement of 240 Billion of rebuilding by the government and insurance funds must be a morale booster. 
 
A solution to the U.S. fiscal cliff scenario is the issuance of an additional trillion over the course of the next year.  Some commentators are suggesting a figure of $45 Billion per month for buying government securities, in addition to the $40 billion MBS already announced.  I reckon a figure of $60 billion per month for purchase of government securities would be more comfortable, making a total of 1.2 trillion for the year. 
 
Hearing that millionaire households have had to go on food stamps and that the swing voters were affected by Obamacare and the social security net, is a sobering thought. 
 
The U.S. seems on a sound, expansion phase, and amicable agreement on the course of action regarding the fiscal ledger entries and creation of many more jobs per million of investment, will ensure the framework for a continued worldwide Recovery, as all nations manufacture and consume and trade and develop and grow.  As Swami Vivekanada once remarked "Never underestimate the glory of human nature".  And so it shall always be, the outlook for the world remains positive and optimistic.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.

The best proposition I've read of today

Posted on September 9, 2012 at 12:31 PM Comments comments ()
The best idea I've read about today is that of the Business Secretary Vince Cable suggesting that both the Coalition and the Opposition (whose job is not to oppose but to test the propositions of the Government) should co-operate and create policies which will create growth and Recovery.  That is actually how it should be.  In the U.S., the Republicans' support for President Obama's proposals have seen their economy expanding and creating jobs and a positive GDP in a world beset with economic problems.  That is surely how all nations should be?  After all, political parties of all sides are there to serve the people who have elected them, and they have elected them to get a better deal, a better future.  A lot can be achieved with bi-partisan co-operation in most countries, if the elected leaders are open to ideas and are swift at implementing what seems a true course. 
 
The U.K. economy was dipping its toes into a double-dip, but figures recently suggest that scenario can be side-stepped, with the recent Cabinet reshuffle by the PM and return of confidence to the stock-market, which has been seeming to go upwards and onwards but has been holding back in a small range.
 
The infrastructure projects such as housing developments near race-courses or the third runway at Heathrow, and the planned railway link, could set the ball rolling with jobs and amenities which people need, and which will further open up Britain  to investments from overseas.
 
Britain is a great example of a multi-cutural nation where people live harmoniously, going to church or gurudwara or mosque or synagogue, observing their religious fesitvals Eid, Diwali, Hannukah and Christmas as joyous occassions which all people share in.  That is the nature of England.
 
Hopefully the politicians from both sides will also join in in such spirit, and set this nation once again on a path to Recovery and Prosperity.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Books or information creates perspective

Posted on August 2, 2012 at 1:29 PM Comments comments ()
What distinguishes the U.S. or Brazil or China or South Africa or India from the European Economic Union?  The last one is not a sovereign nation-state.  Just a useful fact I picked up while browsing through some books at Foyles new branch at Westfield, Stratford. 
 
Do you find the life and work of Leonardo da Vinci inspiring?  A set of two art books in a slip case seem interesting.   Fascinating.  (At £17.99 may make a great gift for someone).
 
The Kama Sutra and books on attracting love are top shelf in Mind, Body and Spirit, with constant best-sellers like Norman Vincent Peale, Wallace Wattles, Anthony Robbins, Deepak Chopra and Robin Sharma
(The lawyer who sold his Ferrari and became a monk).
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 
 

Things should only get better for Greece and Spain...

Posted on July 23, 2012 at 5:31 PM Comments comments ()
The markets became jittery from the word go today, overnight in Asia, followed by Europe, and starting off on that footing in the U.S.  The main concern seemed to be the Greek situation, and it seems Germany and the Eurozone are now quite prepared to accept a Greek exit, although no nation would like that, and certainly it would not be beneficial at all for Greece. 
 
Perhaps a change of mind set is the remedy in Europe, to dwell on the positive and broadcast what is being done to restore stability and growth, rather than talk about the future as if it is a foregone acceptance that the future will not be so rosy.  Such is the illusion and not the reality.  No intelligent population is going to stop innovating and adadpting to the new challenges and opportunities availalbe.  The governments job is to ensure a secure, stable environment and empower people with licences to start work and production; and the banks to provide the capital to empower people in their dealings. 
Government printed notes and minted coins are the legal tender, the accepted IOUs, that all nations have to issue in proportion to their resources, their living standards, and the size of the population.  I believe Basel is where they keep the books on the printing and issuance of all national currencies, and those books are constantly updated and scrutinized.
 
Greece has received some very sizeable bailouts, and of course Mr Antonios Samaras is deserving of sympathy when he says his nation is in a Great Depression.  Now is the time for him to show his leadership and pull Greece out of that situation.  Under the aegis of the ECB and European Union, his nation has received a lot of help.  Similarly with Spain.  They have received help of funds recently, so it is alarming to see the strikes and demonstrations in Madrid and Barcelona, which have done little good internationally, pushing up the cost of borrowing for Spain.  The leaders and people of these two great nations must restore faith in their economies, and gently guide their people to a path of growth and happiness.  Austerity must never be so severe that it is unacceptable, and the wealthier European nations must show their sympathy and accept this fact. 
 
Once all nations are aligned to keeping the Euro in existence and through this maturing phase for what is a relatively new currency,  all nations will be able to enjoy the fruits such unification will bring.  The Euro is the Mother Currency of 17 European nations, and all these nations must be aligned in favour of it and building its strength.  Quite soon, I believe things will turn in favour of the Euro.  If the margins are adjusted for the Greek and Spainish Bonds, then favourable results will follow there also.  I hope all nations can afford to be generous to these sister nations, these flowers of the same bouquet.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

The ECB drops rate to 0.75 percent

Posted on July 5, 2012 at 10:36 AM Comments comments ()
Amidst detecting signs that the economy is still on the road to Recovery but in need of a stimulus, the ECB has announced a rate cut from  1 percent by 25 basis points.  This seems a step in the right direction, as the supply of credit is available from the banks but enterprise needs that extra encouragement of a stable low long term rate to borrow and invest for growth.  Hopefully this will be the silver bullet for growth in Europe, as the Central Bank of China has also cut its main rate by 31 bps to 6 percent. CORRECTION : the rate has been cut to 6 percent, not 3.5 percent as previously noted in error.
 
All the major economies ought to be moving in tandem, and to help the cause of worldwide economic Recovery and resume consumerism of a required and sustainable scale to create jobs, encourage house and auto purchases, and improve spending on the High Streets, the required ingredient in my considered opinion is the lowering of Central Bank repo rates among the BRICS countries.  The rate for example in India and Russia is unsustainably high, and not conducive to growth.  If the mature economies have used this formula as a tool for stimulus, why not the BRICS countries also?  Brazil and South Africa too have potential to use this tool.  And, why not? After all, the world has the Oil price as a constant - it is priced in dollars, and has led to inflation everywhere with its recent highs. If the mature economies see it as a benefit to stimulus to have low interest rates, why not the BRICS nations also?
 
A repo rate of 8 percent in India has seen the Manufacturing Index drop in recent months, and the figures are suggesting a slowdown, which will impact globaly.  The emerging market economies need to stimulate growth, and here they have the benefit of being resources-rich, with young populations and potential and need for building houses, hospitals, bridges, airports, railways,roads, etc, etc, etc.
A rate of 8 percent stifles growth, it frightens industries from borrowing, in view of the global demand picture.  But if the domestic demand can be encouraged, with delivering of higher standards of living for the population, this would be an added blessing and more trade can result worldwide. 
 
The manufacturing numbers in Europe seem to be mildly better then previous months, and if industry now takes courage and starts borrowing and investing and creating jobs and consumerism, the anthem for Recovery can continue to play. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

When the new tech starts to pay for itself...

Posted on June 26, 2012 at 6:54 AM Comments comments ()
When the new tech starts to pay for itself, money will start to flow into the system.  It is not a matter of money-tising things, it is a matter of finding value in what people enjoy doing.  I believe that will be the way forward. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Firm measures for economic stimulus

Posted on June 23, 2012 at 7:54 AM Comments comments ()
The G-20 meeting of the Prime Ministers and Leaders of the richest and most powerful countries ended on a very happy note, with China offering the IMF $43 Billion and India offering $10 Billion.  Such money to give cheap loans to poorer nations is an excellent move to stimulate growth worldwide, and Mme Lagarde was obviously delighted with the support she got from Japan, Saudi Arabia, United Kingdom, and all the other nations.  This will enable her to write a new story for the worldwide economic Recovery. 
 
The Bank of England's measure to provide £100 Billion of asset purchase and liquidity into the U.K. economy also augers well, where £5 Billion will be pumped in over a month, with other amounts periodically.  This is a very sound and generous measure, which will help create work and wealth and help the economic Recovery tremendously. Hopefully, now, the local shopkeepers, tradesmen, motor dealers, house-builders and so on will be able to borrow some money cheaply to continue trading, as well as for people to buy cars, houses, home improvements, shopping, etc.
 
The meeting on Friday after which Mme Merkel went to watch the Euro match where Germany won, will put in place the measures to boost growth in the Eurozone.  She agreed with the Italian, French and Spanish Premiers to boost funding to provide for growth of one percent of GDP.  With the election of the conservative  party in Greece, who have formed a pro-bailout coalition with Pasok and others, for the time being this will give stability to the Euro and Eurozone.
 
The Oil price has fallen, and this will help speed up Recovery, and I hope the price will be down for a sufficient length of time, say 4 to 6 months. 
 
All in all, with the measures now in place, it appears that the worldwide economic Recovery will gather pace over the next few months and over the next two years. 
 
The only thing that needs to be done is for the BRICS nations to reduce the Central Bank repo rates. 
Convergence of interest rates would help, and the less disparity is there with the mature economies, the more in tune will all the economies become.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

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