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Honest Information, Profitable Trading

Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

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2015 may be a very good year, but caution ahead

Posted on February 6, 2015 at 7:09 AM Comments comments (12)
Two Thousand and Fifteen may become a very good year, for most nations.

In China, where they recently cut rates and introduced a Trillion Dollar stimulus, the dynamics of internal growth and development as well as for the export markets suggests robust growth.  The Honourable Xi Jinping is quoted as saying that China will achieve a new standard in progress.  His words are welcome, and should give heart to anyone who may be fearing a slowdown in China.  The actual production and shipments overseas ( I hear huge ship loads arriving in Britain, and for the first time in many years hear the trains ferry the goods across in the middle of the night in a huge procession) testify to that.

In the U.S., the start of Prosperity which I had foreseen for November 2014 seems to have materialised, and heatmaps of happiness continue to grow for the people there, with increasing numbers of auto purchases, mortgages taken out on single family units, more people in work both seasonal and permanent, lower Oil prices (although that is a mixed blessing), and good weather, apart from the recent snow.

I see the DOW going upto 18,500* by June this year, although the prospects for 2016 may be mild, with perhaps the saving grace of Hillary Clinton becoming elected as the President.  Sentator Jeb Bush is a strong candidate, but I detect the dynamics at play will ensure the Democrats will again have tenure of the highest position in the land. 

*I am just expressing my opinion, based on the logics of what I perceive.  People should speculate at their own risk.

The Oil producing nations will have to work in co-operation and ensure a stable oil price, otherwise their dollar-denominated revenues will not meet the cost of their imports, and may lead to ques outside empty supermarkets, waiting to buy stocks (g00ds) which are being rationed, as in Venezuela. 
It makes me cringe in shock to see the situation in Ukraine, where the rebels loyal to the Soviet leadership are wrecking havoc and creating ghost towns, where life seems at 1950s levels.  Mr Putin can be generous and call these people off.  He must extricate himself from this very messy situation.  It is doing no one any good.  Once peace is restored in this region, hopefully the Rouble will recover, and help people in Russia share the common prosperity that is developing worldwide.  Oil seems to be bouncing around levels which may be optimum, and which may prove good for everybody, including the newly formed shale and fracking operators.  Mr Putin has to apply the generosity principle, and help the kindred folks in Ukraine.  That conflict is just so unnecessary, it is just like bullying people who at one time Mr Putin was willing to big a brotherly hug.  I just don't believe it.

Under Pradhanmantri Shree Modiji, India is on track for the fastest growth since Independence, although the recent industrial productions figures at 2.6 percent seem so faint.  Provided the RBI decide to enjoin the procession of Recovery and lower the benchmark repo rate, things should improve.  There is a great natural appetite for investment into India, with the right atmosphere.  Creating a major air hub to compete with what exists in the Arab Emirates may be a good raising of the bar, but let us all wait and see what will actually materialise.  But in the meantime, the commencement of building a 100 new cities seems a great vision, and Modiji has my congratulations.  I hope his BJP policymakers and bureaucrats will ensure implementation and fulfilment of such measures.

The caution that I mentioned....while times are good, save a little for the future, and build some reserves for the second half of 2016, when it will all come in handy.


May the Lord's blessings be upon all.


Kind regards,

Durudarshan H. Dadlani


(c) Copyright. 



 





Magnificent, the ECB Stimulus

Posted on January 25, 2015 at 5:08 PM Comments comments (10)
The Trillion Euro stimulus announced this afternoon by ECB President Mario Draghi is nothing less than magnificent in my view, and will help create jobs and industry for millions, and turn into wealth.  This stimulus augurs well for the European stockmarkets and for the Euro itself, which it now underpins with a very positive aspect.  It seems to have been announced at the right time, and although the immediate market reaction may not have been wildly enthusiastic, it is a complex stimulus, needing people to understand and digest its implications.

In plain terms, it is 60 billion Euros per month over 18 months, starting from March to September 2016, meaning a total of 1,080,000,000,000* Euros.  This was announced by Mr Draghi at the press conference in Frankfurt this afternoon.

It will serve the 19 nations that make up the Euro Area, or Eurozone, which now includes as from 1st January 2015 Lithuania.   However, it will not be available at the moment to Greece, which benefits from arrangements already in place from the IMF, which gave them two bailouts and numerous haircuts.  Perhaps there could be cross border mergers of some organisations which would benefit all?

There seems enough appetite for additional funds, especially by companies who have not been able to find funding from the banks so far.  This is a ready segment that will be glad to be served by this Stimulus.  As in England and Britain, where Mr Cameron has been visiting various companies, who have received funding now, something similar needs to be implemented in the Eurozone.  Money invested in companies which need capital for upgrades of machinery, or cash flow to keep the factories operating while their customers arrange to pay them, will maintain employment and sustain livelihoods and, hopefully, even create wealth in the long term.  That 'old school' way of trading had died recently in the credit crunch, and could well do with revival.  It may be the clue to bring Recovery back on stream.


This Trillion Euro Stimulus was long awaited, and probably is just in time, now joining the money flow in the U.S., Japan and China, to maintain the worldwide economic Recovery, which shall flourish to Prosperity for all nations.  The next stage surely must be for the BRICS nations to reduce their benchmark interest rates and for the Emerging Markets to do something similar, in due course to be followed by Africa perhaps?  Or even simultaneously, and soon?  Why not?  The national books can become squared internationally, as each nation develops its resources, trades with the other nations, and brings development and growth at home.  Would that not be the most marvellous thing to happen?


I wish you peace and prosperity, to every nation, man, woman and child.


Kind regards,

Duru-darshan


(c)  Copyright.

P.S. Earlier I left out three 0's.  Aw aw aw!


DOW passes 16,000 - where next?

Posted on November 19, 2013 at 4:21 AM Comments comments (8)
Good morning, readers.  As the DOW passed 16,000 yesterday, I didn't write anything at that moment.  Regular readers of my column/blog will surely know that I was one of the few to suggest the DOW would go past 14,000 - then past 15,000 (the magic of 15,000) - and only recently 16,000.  I was of the view that the DOW could even do 17,000 this year, in the next five weeks or so.  A thousand points in say 25 working days, is it possible?  I shall wait to assess the markets further before I would commit to such a suggestion. 
 
In the meantime, I imagine a lot of punters will take some money off the table, and put into alternative markets.  India SENSEX has seen more inflows in last few days.
 
If not this year, then certainly I believe the DOW will hit 17,000 in next few months, on the proviso that the feel-good is assisted by the candy distribution, on which the panel will decide in the US this week.
 
That's all for now.
 
I wish joy and success to all my readers, in Netherlands, Fuzhou, California, India, Kenya, Tokyo, etc, etc.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
Caveat : Everyone trades entirely at their own risk, I am merely sharing my views.
 
 
(c) Copyright  19th November 2013, Durudarshan H. Dadlani.
 
 
 

Narayani Namastute!

Posted on October 19, 2013 at 12:21 PM Comments comments (7)
When I get so many readers from Kansas City to my blog, I think Narayani Namastute! Narayani Namastute!  Yes, on the auspicious  day of Full Moon, as it was yesterday, and with the conjunction of the debt ceiling raise decision in the U.S., I was wondering what the Kansas City Fed Chairman Narayanan Kocharlakota was thinking.  I haven't read anything in the press, but he is normally an advocate of quantitative easing with deliberate measure.  In this regard, again, it is early days to see a ballpark figure of the debt ceiling raise, and for the 4 months of January 15th, Congress has announced that the U.S. government will be fully funded.  Their Comptroller is likely to know what that means, and how much money will continue to flow into the system until then. 
 
In the meantime, it must be a great relief that the shutdown has been lifted.  Never again, I can hear everyone saying.  People have lost income and business, tourists have suffered not being able to visit monuments and museums they may have especially travelled over the States to visit.  The short but very long 14 days have cost the U.S. dear, to the tune of some $24 Billion in lost revenue and productivity.  The lesson is clear, such a shutdown over an extended period would cause the economy to slow down, and the economy to lose something on the GDP measure.  It is like an economy in good shape being told to trim down.  Never again, I hope.
 
As to the ballpark figure, my suggestion is $1.32 Trillion over 20 months, which works out at $66 Billion per month.  After payment of some $60 Billion per month for the social security net, that leaves $6 Billion per month for enterprise and job creation.  Jobs ranging in pay from $20 or $30,000 per annum to $250,000 per annum could be created, perhaps 300,000 or 400,000 per month.  And he presto! within six months the U.S. would have whizzed on from Recovery to Prosperity. 
 
But that's just a ballpark figure I am suggesting.  At current Stimulus of $85 Billion per month, maybe it could be different.  In view of the regime of Abenomics in Japan and their Stimulus of $85 Billion per month, the per capita differential is in Japan's favour.  It is a theme to be explored over the coming days. 
 
I am glad to note the global economic order has been stabilised after the agreement in the U.S. on the debt ceiling raise.  As they all enjoy four months of relative calm and stability until 15th January and then to 7th February, I trust they will have this in mind and not give everyone, including themselves, a tough time. 
 
Certainly, the costings and implementation of Obamacare is something they can review and see how technically it would be best implemented.  The beginnings of the British NHS took about 40 years in gestation, before it received the blessing as a Royal Charter in 1947 under the kind King George.  Obamacare is by comparison in its infancy, and needs to be tweaked and explored before this very sound principle can bring benefits to the citizens and the nation.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 

Debt Ceiling, grounds for optimism

Posted on October 15, 2013 at 2:35 PM Comments comments (5)
Sound bites coming out of Washington this morning suggested that progress had been made on the debt ceiling raise negotiations, but there was still some work to be done. 
 
Indeed, NDTV was stating that a deal had been agreed in principle, to the effect that there would be 'full funding' of the government till 15th January, and thereafter a debt ceiling renegotiation date of 15th February.  If that is in fact so, that would be great news for everybody, at least they won't have to worry about the cold winds of November and can have a holiday and relax over Christmas before having to face the cold corridors of Washington in the New Year.
 
People are counting on the House Fathers Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell to bring everybody to the fold and get some agreement in principle, so that it can be presented to the world latest by Thursday.
Optimistically, everybody is waiting for such news.
 
In the meantime the U.S. Budget Office is issuing advisories in the event that an agreement is not reached.  Namely that in the event of a debt ceiling limit not being raised, the government will have run out of authority to issue any more money into the system.  In the most unlikely event of that happening, the ramifications would multiply twelve times what has happened under the Sequestration.
(The sequestration cuts totalled $85 billion over twelve months from a Q.E. budget running at $85 billion per month; hence one twelfth, so the effects of a halt would be magnified twelve times.  This is just to put in context some meat for the doomsters.  I cannot see the wise elected leaders of the U.S. ever leading America down that path, which would of course spell pessimistic scenarios for the world, as all nations trade with the U.S. and lot of people are engaged in producing something for export or working in calls centres and so forth which serves the major economies.)
 
Ideally, everybody would like to believe that such an agreement will be reached and released to the world, that full funding of the government continues until January, and then once again they can face the cold winds of February to negotiate another debt ceiling raise.  In the meantime, the funding will ensure U.S. continues to trade at full strength with the world, and create more jobs at home and abroad, creating a continuation of the Recovery that has gladly blessed this great nation. 
 
Japan is most definitely looking for an endorsement of the QE policies which they have implemented with a huge success, pulling Japan out from a phase of stagnation that lasted 20 years to what are glad welcomes of a Recovery.  China likewise is re-focusing on domestic growth; how much better it will be if things continue in a positive way across the globe, so that there is work for the workshops, freight for the transport and the oceans, everyone doing something purposeful, busy, happy, earning their livelihoods, buying houses, cars, sending their children to schools and colleges and universities, a whole world procession in progress, the army of humanity. 
 
How wonderful it will be for those wise leaders in Washington to agree upon and then issue to the world the words that signal the continuation of the economic Recovery at home, and by extension to the world.  I pray for this. 
 
Looking for inspiration yesterday, some words occurred to me, which I tweeted, as follows :
  "Have faith, just believe.  Everything will be all right, by the grace of God."
 
I sincerely believe that shall be so.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

What would happen if there were no Debt Ceiling raise?

Posted on October 8, 2013 at 3:41 PM Comments comments (6)
Each one can imagine some kind of bleak scenario, in the event that the Debt Ceiling was breached and there was no agreement in Washington between the Republicans and Democrats. 
 
At the moment, the world watches in exasperation as the two sides debate and give a very mixed impression.  As they gleefully remain entrenched as to what they will concede or not, the time is ticking away to 17th October. 
 
Japan and China have wondered at the shutdown, and why it is not being lifted swiftly.  In those nations, such a situation, were it ever to arise, would be reversed as a matter of honour and in the interests of not impeding the economic engine.  It would be done swiftly with a command from the leadership. 
 
In the U.S., by contrast, as is the nature of democracy, every fine detail has to be debated.  That is fair enough, but time is running out nevertheless.
 
In the event that there is no Debt Ceiling raise by 17th October, one can envisage a bleak picture where government will not be able to pay its employees, which of course also includes the Representatives and Senators who have defended very narrow corners and brought about the current shutdown and the furloughs, disrupting peoples' daily routines and reducing their paypackets.  Of course this would have an impact on the economy overall were it to continue for any length of time.  Just over a week has gone, and the mood on the stockmarket has been subdued.  If it were to continue for consecutive 21 days, probably it would cause a disheartening mood, which would dampen the feelings and start a down-turn.
 
Secretary of State for the Treasury Mr Jacob Lew has said there would be about $30 billion for cash-flow, in a 'four trillion dollar enterprise'.  That may be sufficient for 12 days, which would take everyone to 29th October.  If there was no agreement by then, can you imagine anything but the stock markets falling, a fear factor and a lack of confidence, people being laid off by private enterprises as well.  I would bet the Oil price would plummet, demand would be so drastically reduced.  The domino effect would be worldwide, nothing short of alarming.  It would be like looking at Greece in its recent dark days, only the U.S. is a much bigger economy, with over 16 times the population of Greece.  Not only that, what is the sovereign currency of a well-functioning economy and the Reserve Currency of the world would have its standing compromised. 
 
I trust they have some arrangement in place, whether by bi-partisan co-operation, putting aside for the moment the other issues which are dividing them at the moment, and agreeing to a Debit Ceiling raise by 17th October; or, arrangements in place to allow the President to exercise his prerogative under the 14th Amendment and sign in an amount that would be prudent and necessary. 
 
Mr Obama has mentioned that the debt burden has been reduced by Two and a Half Trillion in the last few years, so his Administration's policies have been productive and praiseworthy, pulling the whole economy out of a severe recession and creating a nation with huge heatmaps of happiness, which have  provided growing confidence worldwide.  The sooner the uncertainity regarding the Debt Ceiling raise is removed, the better will it be for the whole world.  America's well-wishers and creditors alike would feel good, a positive mood of certainity and predictability for future growth would continue worldwide.
 
The last Debt Ceiling raise in August 2011 has proved efficacious, and so there would be universal approval and applause for such a measure this once also.  Those who believe in doing right by their fellow humanbeings, let them also do right by the currency that says 'In God We Trust'. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

Netherlands, Kansas City, Kharkov.....Welcome, welcome!

Posted on October 2, 2013 at 8:11 AM Comments comments (4)
It is that moment in time when the world knows the answers, yet some do not seem to.  For their narrow vested interests, they may be taking decisions which will adversely affect so many people.
 
Yes, point in question about the shutdown in the United States, affecting some 700,000 government employees who have been told not to turn up for work, because the two caucuses of the centrist Republican Party which is the U.S. Congress cannot agree the left with the right.  They would like concessions on many issues, which are not of prime importance today and bear some relevance to the great impending issue of the raising of the Debt Ceiling.  According to Mr Jack Lew, Secretary of State for the Treasury, the clock is expected to hit a top on 17th October, giving just about 15 days for the Congress to concentrate on this priority. 
 
The aggregate debt stands at a whopping $16.5 Trillion, but certainly that is not huge in comparison to the essence and integrity of the United States of America.  At last count, when the debt ceiling needed to be raised in August 2011, the Chinese Premier Hu Jintao as well as the Japanese leaders offered their continued support. 
 
The cash-flow in the system has enabled an ongoing Recovery, translating into much consumer confidence, demands on goods and services, and heatmaps of happiness across the world, in China, India, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Japan, Australia, Europe, Brazil, Venezuela, and every nation who trades, which includes all nations of the globe. 
 
Indeed it was a great gesture when the Federal Reserve opened the Open Window in Europe, enabling the Eurozone to borrow dollars and pump into their economies, creating much growth and momentum
in production and consumer confidence. 
 
There must be few people who do not see the benefits of a globalised economic powerhouse that is the world, where co-operation and trade between nations helps each nation produce its unique resources and exchange with the rest of the world.
 
I believe the world can confidently assume that the U.S. banks collectively have the wherewithal to underwrite the raising of the Debt Ceiling.  As Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan and other leading bankers meet with Mr Obama today, certainly that will be on the agenda of discussion. 
 
In August 2011 the U.S. banks collectively had over $1.45 Trillion, and enabled that raise.  It will be good news to hear what they may be willing to underwrite this time.  Certainly the money has swirled around the system, enabling people buy the houses and cars and television sets and sofa sets and iPads which they love, and swelled the coffers of companies such as Apple and Oracle and billionaire Carl Icahn.  All that is really needed is for such companies and people to continue to create more employment in the private sector, and for government to continue to serve the people effectively.
 
The lifting of the shutdown would be great, and would be welcome for people who are visiting America, so that their trips are joyful in seeing the monuments they have come to see. 
 
A rethink on what has led to the shutdown can only help the goodwill of America, and the prosperity of her own people.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 
 

Stimulus? Taper? Where we headed?

Posted on September 27, 2013 at 2:36 PM Comments comments (3)
In his penultimate testimony recently, Federal Chief Ben Bernanke suggested that the QE measures had greatly helped the economy. 
 
The infusion of money did indeed stabilise the economy and create jobs on an on-going monthly basis, helping people buy autos and houses, and adding to consumer confidence in the U.S., which has become one of the fastest recovering nations post the 2008-crash. The QE measures introduced in August 2011 helped to propel the economy from a negative loss of confidence to a positive full of hope and promise and enterprise culture.  The QE measures helped to finance the government departments as well as the social net, and has got some of the pick-and-shovel jobs under way, although not as many as may have been envisaged. 
 
Secretary for the Treasury Jack Lew is characterised as pleading for action on the issue of the debt ceiling, but of course this issue cannot have escaped anyone's attention.  A logical time for resolution of this issue in somewhere mid to end October, when Mr Bernanke may be stepping down, having served his nation in a most admirable way.
 
The $40 billion a month stimulus under the first QE measure must have clocked up a trillion just after two years and one month.  The additional stimulus of $45 billion a month in buying of mortgage-backed securities has been in place for nearly a year, and that tots up another half trillion or so.  All told, the authorised stimulus which was the debt ceiling was around $1.45 trillion, plus a further $700 billion from banks and private or public concerns.  The money has swirled in the system and created much happiness for so many people, and sustained livelihoods and restored confidence, not only in the USA, but around the world.  The dark days were when diamond merchants in India were standing idle, because American men had stopped buying diamond rings for their fiancées.  The whole supply chain from South Africa to Antwerp to Tel Aviv felt the effect.  Thankfully, those days are gone, and we all have to thank the return to confidence that has enabled consumers believe in a good life and live with hope.  When people have received loans and mortgages, their purpose has been filled with joy.  May that continue for the foreseeable future, as hard work and enterprise turn into wealth, going round and serving more.  A growing circle of enterprise and industry in each nation has given added confidence to increased trade as well as growth at home.  When the global locomotive of growth drives along, it is music to the ears of people everywhere, be it China, India, the Middle East, Africa, or South America, not to forget Japan and Australia.  Growth and enterprise is good for the world, as each nation trades their unique resources, creating work and purpose, confidence and enterprise.   
 
The cash-flow that the stimulus measures provided have been a great blessing, creating many jobs, creating many livelihoods, helping many families survive and recover from the savage recession that beset the world, and with the creation of activity, opening of factories and workshops, improving purchase of goods both utilitarian and luxury, improved number of travellers and visitors globally, it seems the economies are set for further growth to Prosperity. 
 
Secretary of Treasury Jack Lew and colleagues will know what measures are necessary.  President Obama and House Speaker Boehner will ascertain what is necessary and prudent for continuation of the economic Recovery.  Positive developments on this with bi-partisan co-operation will herald the path to Prosperity.  Trusting in good judgement, no one should have concern. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

Thanks for visiting my website.

Posted on September 21, 2013 at 6:09 AM Comments comments (5)
Thanks for visiting my website and reading my blog.  I hope you found something interesting.
 
Life is fun, with demands on time in so many directions.
 
Thursday I went to the Community Centre in Cricklewood.  Every Full Moon, they do prayers to Satnarayan Swami and Mata Laxmi.  It is a tradition we Sindhis have followed for generations, to pray to God and Goddess to give us peace in the household, and prosperity in our business affairs.
 
Later I visited the Southbank Centre, attracted there by the exhibition of her Picasso like painting by
Sangeeta Roshni Babani (she is an inspired painter from Mumbai, and she's Sindhi too, so I thought I'll
pay there a visit).
 
Sangeeta hadn't obtained her visa, and therefore could not be there.  Other artists from India exhibited
their creations alongside a few of Sangeeta's paintings. 
 
Particularly I liked a table whose top opens in segments like a fan, and this is adorned by mirrors.
This is by Yamin Mohiuddin from Hyderabad.  I can see such a piece adorning some young one's bedroom or even a hairdressing salon.  It would look good in a media company's foyer. 
 
If you like genuine teak furniture, like a chair crafted like black petals, or a palm made of teak, and don't mind paying about £800 for such items, Firdos Furnishers of Nagpur have several pieces on display.
 
An English idea that seemed to catch everyone's eye was Gerrad the Second.  This is a folding dog that looks like an inspired work of origami, with 188 sections to unfold and paste together very very carefully with Uhu glue.  The small ones sell for £20, and are limited editions of 500.  Fair enough.  They have decorative prints of dollar notes, piping, mascots, newspaper cuttings and so on, like industry or sector or indeed national mascots.The large ones, including one made of black wool decorated with harlequin squares, well, those will become collector's items, starting in an auction in 2014 at £1,000.  Absolutely grand.  Made by Liam from Liverpool.
 
 #####################################sangeeta############################################
 
Today I missed going to the Millionaire Mentors Bootcamp at the Hilton, London Bridge.  There is a free general entrace, generously hosted by Raymond Aaron, the bestselling author.  Problem is, it starts at 9 am on Saturday and Sunday.  Just a bit too early to travel up there for me;  otherwise it seems an event worth attending.  Finishes at 6pm both days.  Bootcamp to give you quick fire ideas how to boot up your ideas and send them skyrocketing.
 
 
I am sure someone can suggest ideas to make my website and blog into a money minting machine.  Well, hold my hand and show me the way. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.

Mr Bernanke's penulimate tesimony before he leaves the Fed.

Posted on September 19, 2013 at 5:56 PM Comments comments (1)
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke made a cordial testimony yesterday, a month now before he is due to step down from office.  Essentially, he restated that the quantitative easing measures need to remain in place until the economic Recovery picks up further steam, but such measures have greatly benefitted the economic pickup and that the economy is strengthening thanks to such measures. 
 
There is nothing but appreciation for Ben Bernanke's handling of the Federal Reserve policies, and I admire this Statesman greatly.  His unique style has helped keep just that degree of suspense that is discretion, while at the same time sharing as much information as has been necessary to bolster stability.  The world stock markets got a boost after his testimony yesterday.
 
It remains to be seen how the Obama administration will fix the debt ceiling issue, which Treasury Secretary Jack Lew has indicated may fall due in October.  Will it be bi-partisan co-operation by the Republicans and the Democrats as before?  When everything is going so well, it is to be expected that they will push through the required votes to help Recovery stay on course, as would be both prudent and necessary.
 
Whoever is selected to be the next Fed Chairman, essentially the pro-growth policies are expected to stay in place. 
 
I have a hunch that the Dow Jones Industrial Index will either shoot for 17000 by the end of the year, or head up for 16000.  What the mind of man can conceive and believe, it can achieve.  I sense it will be possible.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.