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Honest Information, Profitable Trading

Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

My Blog

Blog

www.durudarshan.co.uk/blog

Posted on November 9, 2013 at 6:12 AM Comments comments ()
My thanks to the staff at these Search Engines for listing and indexing my website, and to Vistaprint for so beautifully hosting my website over last 28 months.  It has built from strength to strength, drawing many visitors each day. Thanks to all :
                        Stumbleupon
                        Google (the multi-trillion dollar brain)
                        Twitter  (tweet tweet to you)
                        LinkedIn (professional and so well defined)
                        j.mp
                        Yahoo (book readers love you)
                        Bing (looks like people like spy thrillers)
                        and, just for good measure, a few porno sites, harmless fun is okay I'd say.
 
My blogs being read overnight are as follows :
  -  The ECB's 25 basispoint cut
  -  Stephanie Ruhle, CNBC interviewer 
         (She's actually an anchor for Bloomberg, working in New York)
  -  This is time for buyers to support Bangladesh factories
          (American companies have done so, may blessings be unto them)
  -  Thomas Sugrue's review of The Last Great Prophet
  -  The Bank of America share price.
 
----------------------------------------------LIZZIE--------------------------------------------------------------
 
Yesterday I heard the news that China has experienced good growth and far from a hard-landing which people feared it is experiencing very sound growth, with PMI figures up and increasing. 
 
One commentator has stated that China has several trillion dollars of reserves for investment, so I imagine the worldwide boom can continue.  Today I heard that 80 percent of visas being taken for visits to Portugal are for Chinese property investors.  This way, all economies with an open-door policy to encouraging property ownership and immigration would benefit from the Chinese wherewithal to sustain growth and Recovery. 
 
If the Chinese sources are suggesting U.S. is looking for $561 Billion for next six months, it augers well for the U.S. that the jobs numbers were pretty good and growth potential is inherent in America, and it would be very probable that China would support such borrowings and support, as they have done in the recent past. 
 
The luxury sector may start to rebound in China, who continue to buy Rolls Royce cars and jets as never before, and with the refocus on domestic consumption and increasing exports from China, it is apparent that the Honourable Xi Jinping is inspiring policies that will help the Chinese people achieve higher standards of living. 
 
For stability and optimism into the near future, what more could the world wish for?
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Positive actions would make everything good

Posted on October 29, 2013 at 7:08 AM Comments comments ()
Following in the math of the sequestration cuts, followed by uncertainity about the U.S. Debt Ceiling raise, and the unwanted shutdown and furloughs, it seems apparent that confidence has taken a bit of a knock, especially with regards to the United States economy, but obviously timely positive action would restore that. 
 
The news that Ms Janet Yellen was nominated by Mr Obama to the chair of the Federal Reserve was actually happy news to the markets, welcoming this dove of the financial system, assured that the punchbowl would be replenished and the taper would be quite some time away now. 
 
Once that nomination is confirmed by one and all, that would send the right signal and boost the confidence that the economy needs right now, in view of the temporary fix of the nation's capacity to continue funding itself until only 15th January 2014. 
 
Around that time Chairman Ben Bernanke steps down, and willing bi-partisan co-operation to extend
the reserve balance capacity and support Ms Yellen in her post will ensure great and much needed stability to the world financial system, and not only to that of the United States.
 
The housing numbers yesterday were obviously disappointing, indicating a shake in the confidence of house buyers.  That is but natural, in view of the uncertainity created by the last-moment and then only such a short temporary fix of the situation. 
 
When I was in California and Las Vegas last year, October and November, I met lots of people and heard their stories about how hopeful they are, and how they are happy working hard, to buy their first house and know things are okay with their economy.  These were people who are taxi-drivers, concierges, receptionists, cleaners, waiters, waiteresses, a scientist working for an oil major, people who had made America their home, and who were sharing in the American dream.
 
It can obviously help the well-being of the nation if normal lending practices continue, where the individual man or woman and families are encouraged to buy their own houses, with the confidence in the system that things will continue positively, so they can believe in the virtue of borrowing and investing for the future. 
 
The oil price on both sides of the Atlantic is so high, and hopefully needs to be around the $85 mark to encourage normal growth in the economies outside the G20 nations.  Their depleted reserves and devalued currencies vis a vis the major currencies don't give them a chance.  A dose of kindness now would greatly assist growth throughout the world, which would bring great mutual benefits to all nations.  When we eat the food that we can so easily buy which has been exported from some country, we must spare a thought for the people there, who may not be able to afford such items in their own countries.  When I wear my beautifully stitched shirt, my heart sends blessings to the factory workers in Bangladesh.  It was heartening news to hear of American companies giving them continued support and helping them make the textile industry safe for workers. 
 
With such friendship and trade between nations, each cog will help turn the small wheel which in turn will drive the greater wheel, and the path to continued economic Recovery, and yes, ultimately a growing Prosperity for all, shall continue.  For that I pray.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 
 

How is the economic Recovery likely to continue?

Posted on October 28, 2013 at 8:34 AM Comments comments ()
It has taken all of five years for the world economies to be restored to semblance of normality from the dark days of 2008.
 
Remember those days when the interest rates were quite high in the advanced economies, anything from 4 to 7 percent - and that for the benchmark European Central Bank, Federal Reserve and Bank of England rate. 
 
The crisis created by the collapse of Lehmann Bros sent shockwaves throughout the financial system worldwide, with stockmarkets tumbling, loss of confidence in trade, fall in house prices, and a mood of pessimism gripped the world. 
 
At the vortex of the crisis, when Oil price reached $147 per barrel, according to OPEC AND European Union figures, about $250 billion additional bills were imposed on the European Union's oil expenditure, and what a terrible crisis it created, making transportation and manufacturing unviable in many countries, e.g. Portugal, Spain, Greece, the extra drain sucking the life-force out of the system. 
At the peak of the crisis, people who were earlier working in the textile industry were suddenly without work, and wondering how they would find their cod-and-chips.  Enterprising young people and old were trying their hand at the e-commerce economy, and finding lot of work but little revenue.  The Prime Minister of a sovereign nation which was so prosperous not so long ago was visiting the heads of state of various nations, asking for help.  The social security systems were severally stretched, the tax revenues not corresponding to the new outflows.  The interest on the bonds became quite high, to attract investors.  Talented people from universities were not able to find opportunities to make a living. 
Demand on housing was as high as ever, but people didn't have money to rent, nor were banks willing to extend mortgages.  Indeed, banks and loan corporations were suddenly unviable, after the property price plunge and bankruptcies of many individuals. 
 
Today, comparatively, there has been a return of confidence.  Things are getting better.  Spain, Portugal and Greece have seen their bonds become more attractive to international investors.
But the worst is hardly behind us, yet the oil price remains so high.  The pending closure of the Grangemouth Refinery is an indicator of the havoc the oil price plays with the balance sheet of such businesses.  A business that was viable up until recently today stands in need of £300 million, with that it would support 800 jobs until trade is more favourable.  This may be a microcosmic illustration of what could be in store for the OPEC nations, unless they decide to reduce the oil price to a level that is affordable to the rest of the world, and would give the OPEC nations an on-going stable income on a long-term basis into the future, and allow the world to breathe, and help sustain Recovery. 
 
It took two-and-a-half years after the high oil price knocked the economies for six for a return to some kind of normal business activity.  Common sense tells me that the high price today will probably hamper growth for about a year-and-a-half, and it is already restricting growth and causing hardships in many places, e.g. Yemn, Kenya, India, and almost all the nations outside the G20. 
I WOULD RESPECTFULLY SUGGEST THAT THE OIL PRICE NEEDS TO BE BELOW $85  A BARREL.
 
That would help the hard-pressed developing nations meet their bills from their depleted reserves or devalued currencies, and enabling continuation of trade with the U.S., China, European Union, Israel and indeed OPEC, which would create a dynamic of mutual co-operation and support that may help all nations thrive and develop all their potential.  That is the missing piece of the jigsaw in the picture of a continuation of the worldwide economic Recovery. 
 
All the listening hearts of the world know what I am saying, and those who sit in positions of influence will do what is necessary, for that I pray.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

Andhra Pradesh and Odisha cyclones

Posted on October 26, 2013 at 12:27 PM Comments comments ()
It seems a frequent occurrence, the coming of typhoons and cyclones that seem to hit the Eastern board of India every year, often hitting Odisha the hardest, together with Andhra Pradesh as well as Bengal.
 
This October, cyclone Phailin landed at Gopalpur in Odisha with a core speed of 200 Kilometres per hour, reducing to matchsticks the flimsy dwellings in the low-lying areas, flooding vast majority of farmland and dwellings.  Fallen trees and power lines added to the problems in travelling. Thanfully early warming of the oncoming SuperCyclone enabled the local municipal authorities put into action evacuation plans, together with assistance from the Army and Navy, which were on standby, and so only a tiny number of people lost their lives this time, compared to the 10,000 last time.
 
Nearly a million people had been evacuated, with a timely and well-ordinated effort by the authorities.  Social media must have helped, emphasising the dangers of flooding and the ferocity of the winds, and, most important, how much time they had to get out of harm's way.  Villagers became convinced of the seriousness and left for the safety of higher areas and strong public dwellings, travelling at the last minute by buses laid on by the local councils.  Thankfully, so many people saved their lives by not ignoring the messages. 
 
About 100,000 people were similarly affected in Andhra Pradesh also.
 
Odisha Chief Minister has requested the government in Delhi to provide approximately a billion pounds over and above the 572 million pounds which would be available in the state disaster response fund, such has been the devastation left by Cyclone Phailin. 
 
The government and local authorities are stretched trying to provide food, shelter and rehabilitation for the million plus people affected in the last fortnight.
 
As if that was not bad enough, another cyclone has hit the same region today, killing 29 and leaving another 85,000 marooned.  The government and the local communities have a huge task of rebuilding and rehabilitating nearly 1.3 million people in Eastern states, some of the poorest and least developed in India.  It would be a great blessing for the people if this encourages the construction of alternative housing in such areas. 
 
In the meantime, again I pray for the safety and well-being of the people of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh and Bengal.
 
Respectfully Invoking our Saviour's prayer I intone :"Winds, be thee still".
 
May God's love and care be with the people there.
 
Amen
(written by Duru-darshan
Melchizedek priest at Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints, Ilford)
 
Good news heard today, 9th November 2013.
Indian Prime Minister has announced allocation of funds of 1,000 Crores each for Odisha and Andhra Pradesh.  (approx. 1 Billion Pounds each).
 
 
 
 
 
 
  

Hello Putian, Beijing, China....

Posted on October 23, 2013 at 3:29 PM Comments comments ()
Recently I've had a lot of visitors to my blog and website from Putian as well as Beijing. 
 
I note the Indian Premier Dr Manmohan Singh has been to visit Beijing soon after his trip to Moscow, and
things are looking good for co-operation on peacefully observing each other's shared borders as well as increase in friendly relations and trade.
 
My personal hope is to become nominated by the Congress Party of India (UPA) as the Prime Ministerial candidate for May 2014.  Should my wish be fulfilled with approval of Rahul and Mrs Sonia Gandhi, I would be thrilled and would go to India straight away to start campaigning in earnest. 
 
I have a vision for India as a good neighbour to China, Russia, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Afghanistan and the whole region, as well as to unlock the huge potential that there obviously is for growth of infrastructure such as roads, bridges, dams, power generation, further irrigation, as well as housing, hospitals, schools, universities, and so on, which would utilise the resources and cater to the public, as well as use the skills and expertise internationally in building up this great nation.  I have lived in London the last 41 years, and see the n-th degree developments of this nation (United Kingdom) as something India could well try to aim for.  I imagine that with India's resources both of the peoples' savings and growing expectations of improvements in living standards, it would fit hand-in-glove. 
 
It is regrettable that there have been skirmishes on the international border with Pakistan, especially just after Dr Manmohan Singh-ji had constructive talks with Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif in New York recently. Mr Nawaz Sharif  has a great reputation as a man of his people and a positive personality, who would only wish the best for his people and continuation of peaceful co-existence with India.  The Indian PM has offered bilateral talks on this issue to find a resolution, and I sincerely hope common-sense and peace prevails once again.
 
I hope my readers will be able to make an accurate picture of what I would like to do, and I would welcome your comments on this matter.
 
In the meantime, I wish you a peaceful and happy evening.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 
 

Thanks for visiting my website.

Posted on September 21, 2013 at 6:09 AM Comments comments ()
Thanks for visiting my website and reading my blog.  I hope you found something interesting.
 
Life is fun, with demands on time in so many directions.
 
Thursday I went to the Community Centre in Cricklewood.  Every Full Moon, they do prayers to Satnarayan Swami and Mata Laxmi.  It is a tradition we Sindhis have followed for generations, to pray to God and Goddess to give us peace in the household, and prosperity in our business affairs.
 
Later I visited the Southbank Centre, attracted there by the exhibition of her Picasso like painting by
Sangeeta Roshni Babani (she is an inspired painter from Mumbai, and she's Sindhi too, so I thought I'll
pay there a visit).
 
Sangeeta hadn't obtained her visa, and therefore could not be there.  Other artists from India exhibited
their creations alongside a few of Sangeeta's paintings. 
 
Particularly I liked a table whose top opens in segments like a fan, and this is adorned by mirrors.
This is by Yamin Mohiuddin from Hyderabad.  I can see such a piece adorning some young one's bedroom or even a hairdressing salon.  It would look good in a media company's foyer. 
 
If you like genuine teak furniture, like a chair crafted like black petals, or a palm made of teak, and don't mind paying about £800 for such items, Firdos Furnishers of Nagpur have several pieces on display.
 
An English idea that seemed to catch everyone's eye was Gerrad the Second.  This is a folding dog that looks like an inspired work of origami, with 188 sections to unfold and paste together very very carefully with Uhu glue.  The small ones sell for £20, and are limited editions of 500.  Fair enough.  They have decorative prints of dollar notes, piping, mascots, newspaper cuttings and so on, like industry or sector or indeed national mascots.The large ones, including one made of black wool decorated with harlequin squares, well, those will become collector's items, starting in an auction in 2014 at £1,000.  Absolutely grand.  Made by Liam from Liverpool.
 
 #####################################sangeeta############################################
 
Today I missed going to the Millionaire Mentors Bootcamp at the Hilton, London Bridge.  There is a free general entrace, generously hosted by Raymond Aaron, the bestselling author.  Problem is, it starts at 9 am on Saturday and Sunday.  Just a bit too early to travel up there for me;  otherwise it seems an event worth attending.  Finishes at 6pm both days.  Bootcamp to give you quick fire ideas how to boot up your ideas and send them skyrocketing.
 
 
I am sure someone can suggest ideas to make my website and blog into a money minting machine.  Well, hold my hand and show me the way. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.

Indian Rupee fall overdone

Posted on August 22, 2013 at 8:21 AM Comments comments ()
You know, there was a time when Twelve and a half Indian Rupees exchanged for a U.S. Dollar.
Today, the rate is 65 Rupees to the Dollar.  Hardly a month ago, it was 55 Rupees.
For a country with U.S.$277 Billion in reserves, and a debt to GDP ratio of about 27 percent, this is
clearly selling the Indian Rupee too cheap. 
What sort of policies have been in place that the currency has virtually fallen 400 percent against the greenback, in a period of less than two decades, when the growth in India has been quite healthy while the mature economies have structurally slowed down? 
What is the purpose of encouraging foreign inflows of capital which periodically take flight and cause a panic in the markets? 
Of course, with the Rupee at current levels, most overseas investors see this as a golden opportunity to invest in India.  And the Finance Minister, Mr P. Chidambaram, has confirmed that inflows have been very healthy, and as it is absorbed into the system, a healthy picture will emerge.  Growth for the 2nd half of this year is expected to be much improved, with exports increasing month on month.
Can't blame anyone for snapping up quality Indian goods at ridiculous prices, can you?
 
The Reserve Bank of India's repo rate of 7-1/2 percent is really responsible for the slight slowdown that Indian industry and consumerism have seen over the last year and a half.  When the picture is so healthy, why should the RBI offer such a high rate to attract overseas investment?  When compared to the mature economies, the differential is more than 5 percent and as much as Seven and a quarter percent.  Is anyone listening?  What is the logic of it?  When India has enough for good growth, why does she need foreign inflows which periodically make the currency bleed?
 
The best announcement is that the RBI will not take any policy measures to try and curb the current and temporary fall of the Rupee to the absurd level. 
 
On 5th September, the new Governor of the RBI will assume his office, and both Corporate India and the public wait with hope to see what path he follows to restore robust growth and much need relief for consumers in India.  More people wish to buy houses and cars, take out loans for education and travel.  India needs must add to the world economic growth story, and an orderly drop in the repo rate would prove the tonic.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Oil price is far too high, despite accomodative policies

Posted on August 8, 2013 at 3:29 AM Comments comments ()
For a continuation of the worldwide economic Recovery, in my opinion the price of Oil is far too high  - both WTI and Brent, which hit parity recently and have been both in backwardation on the far futures contracts.
 
The holding of or reduction of benchmark rates in accommodative policies is brilliant, and the only way forward.  The Australian Reserve Bank, U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of England are setting the tone for continuation of Recovery.
 
Mr Raghuram Rajan has been appointed Governor at the Reserve Bank of India, and assumed his post there on 5th September.  In his name are coded the most fond Hindu wishes in Godhead, just as they chant Raghupati Ragav Rajaram.  Hope he will set policies to utilise the various fiscal tools he has at his disposal, and help renew expansionary growth in the Indian economy.  It is noted that he is a gregarious, media-friendly personality, so presumably the world will hear more about what he has in mind. 
 
Oil price at anything above $85 per barrel is too high, and will continue to slow down the world economies.  When people are unable to feed themselves and their children in Yemen and other places, most of the developing world I would surmise, it is time for the OPEC nations to pause and consider what would be best for everybody.  Growing unemployment in South Africa (over 25 percent) and other countries, where social security is not a state policy, does not indicate a robust world picture.  It is imperative that the Oil price be reduced, for continuation of worldwide economic Recovery, which in turn will be able to sustain infrastructure growth in the OPEC and other nations. 
 
Israel with an unemployment rate of over 25 percent could do with international goodwill for their technologically advanced products, and a peace in that region can only help bring the oil price down and help the economies in that region.  In a cooling off of tensions lies the way forward to peace and prosperity.
 
Enlightened souls who help govern the policies, the duty is yours to do the needful.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Potholes, potholes everywhere....hello India!

Posted on July 25, 2013 at 9:37 AM Comments comments ()
It is monsoon and rains intermittently, making roadworks difficult.  Much money has been allocated to repairing the roads, which are full of potholes, in Hyderabad, Mumbai and Banglaore.  Within the last 24 hours, 4 people have been killed on the roads as a result of the potholes, sending people off their scooters and cars off balance.  Traffic grinds down, and it is sheer determination of people to go to their work, take children to school or return home that makes them carry out these bumpy, back-arching journeys.  Just to see the roads on NDTV and their representative coverage of this situation makes people cringe.
 
There is no clarity as to who is responsible for keeping the roads up to date.  The local people have given up on the politicians and councillors, whose job it is to organise the repairs and point them out to the relevant municipal authorities, but confusion over which patch it is, whose jurisdiction it is, who is responsible and so on leaves a poor impression.  Just how do the politicians and councillors and the road works departments liaise and co-ordinate is a fool's blessing. 
 
Of course there is a lot that can be done to rectify the situation, and ensure the traffic moves at a normal pace, saving people time and frustration.  This would surely add to the economic growth?  Time is money, and a satisfied people can enjoy the finer things in life than being regularly trapped on the bouncy journeys. 
 
It is time clear maps were drawn for people to know who is responsible for road maintainaince on each patch, and then for the teams responsible to get the work done of filling the potholes.  It may not be the best plan to fill them all in a short while of say 48 hours, but rather to fill in a few roads each day when the weather permits so that the job is well done and the filling solidifies and takes hold and lasts longer.  Attention to this problem of repairing the potholes will do Indian cities a lot of good, and the people proud.  Those who are in charge must ensure they don't let the people down.  Travel on Indian roads ought to be safe and comfort and free of stress as possible.  That's something to achieve.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Hello Everybody....Oakland, Detroit, Miami

Posted on July 21, 2013 at 12:36 PM Comments comments ()
The Chapter 9 Bankruptcy of Detroit last Friday is a stark reminder of what happens to an economy when trust breaks down between communities and disrupts the social fabric, leading to decline and decay and a sad breakdown of an economy.
 
I understand from cursory reading of books on Detroit that the 1967 riots sparked off a distrust between the communities, and may have been the turning point for the breakdown of the economy which has now resulted to this sad, sad decline.
 
No two children of the same family will be totally understanding or obedient to their parent(s), but if family members work in harmony and common objectives, they tend to be more successful.  That rule of harmony holds true for organisations as well as for communities, there is no reason why it should not hold true for cities or even nations, hence last week I referred to Cario and Oakland but of course I should also have mentioned Miami.
 
Just imagine Detroit in the 1950s, which now appears to have been its heyday, full of harmony and enterprise, inspiring dreams, the American dream, contributing to its status as a city of great reputation worldwide, with its ballrooms, museums, theatres, skyscrapers....The industry and enterprise was there to give a livelihood to the 465,000 residents there, who soon grew to over a million and to nearly two million towards the peak.  The infrastructure was added to as it served the citizens and visitors, and the town grew to a city. 
 
The decline has seen people leave, mainly white people leaving the city to suburbs, leaving a ghetto at its core, the deserted buildings falling apart, now ready for demolition or refurbishment. 
 
The population has fallen, leaving the municipality with an income of about $1 billion a year, when it probably needs at least a billion-and-a-half just to service the interest on the bonds. 
 
A solution may be repopulation, with some company and a group of New Economy companies able to generate a lot of jobs and sustain the livelihoods of the citizens.  Obviously there is a lot of talent and raw energy, that can be purposefully employed and will create wealth and sustain the people and regenerate the city.  All that is now needed is for a few men and women of vision to locate their wealth generating companies there, and give a boost to the regeneration of the housing and public buildings.
The talent is there, you cannot stand and see a great city die.  Hopefully, the government can make a special provision for a funding programme to regenerate this great iconic city with its beautiful landmarks. 
 
As harmony exists between people, so will Recovery and Prosperity bloom in their midst. Today, I pray for restoration of faith in Detroit. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

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