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Honest Information, Profitable Trading

Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

My Blog


Namaste, Indore!

Posted on May 24, 2013 at 4:36 AM Comments comments ()
As the weather shoots up another 5 degrees in most parts of India, including the normally cooler hills, there is a drought in the state of Maharashtra.  The water wells are empty, and water is being brought in by tankers, which move along and inefficiently distribute the precious water, spilling some of it as the tanker moves along,  one pewter container per person.
The drought is all no thanks to the sugar cane industry, which drinks up most of the irrigated water.  There are handsome subsidies in the sugar cane industry, and more acres are earmarked for further plantation of this crop.  The sugar factory bosses are happy, and the regional government ministers have to get their favour.  But it seems absurd as the drought is likely to drive people away from parts of Maharashtra, and the overfill of treasury to the sugar bosses will bring poverty to the rest of the region.
That is something which is best faced up to and averted before it becomes glaringly obvious. 
Sugar could be imported quite economically from regions of Africa where there is plenty of land and water, such as Uganda, where the Indian Madhvani family have the biggest sugar mill.
In Pune, normally a cool area compared to other parts of Maharashtra, temperatures have soared up to 45 degrees centigrade, and there seems just about enough water to wash the face and brush teeth with a glass of water.  This is in stark contrast to how it used to be, when people could take a comfortable bath.  The CM of Maharashtra and his cabinet must rethink on this policy of allowing more sugar cane plantation, to ensure the economy doesn't become unbalanced.  I hope they will listen to this as constructive criticism, as I have stayed in Pune and have many relatives there.
Kind regards,

Invest in a house, buy some gold ornaments....

Posted on April 30, 2013 at 3:49 PM Comments comments ()
A friend of mine from India was asking my opinion about the price of gold. His sister is getting married in about eight months, should they buy some ornaments now? 
Well, already the price is up nearly $120 per oz after the steep price decline recently, so I guess it will trade in a price channel i.e. hit a top and then retrace.  So I suggested to my friend that a buying opportunity could be in the future.
However, the couple or their parents should consider buying their own house, I suggested.  That is a good investment, long term, a roof over the head and pride of ownership, better then renting, wherever the figures work out in favour. 
On that note, I reckon house prices seem very attractive in Spain as well as in the English shires.  Parts of rural India are also very good, for those who can live in the 30-40 degree heat during May to September. 
The U.S. housing market has started to pick up, and that is a good sign for the strength of the economy.  I surmise the job figures this month will be something to write about.  Anyway, for the individuals and families, it is a great idea to buy a house or apartment  at the record low rates.  If there is job security, and more jobs are created, that would be fun.  I hope the money masters can issue mortgages to people so that they can buy the houses, ultimately that will underpin the whole market and give strength and stability to the whole economy.  Not to mention the happiness people have in having a house of their own. 
I believe China will see improved growth this year, so for the world picture to balance, Oil needs to be a little bit cheaper. 
As the Dreamliner once again takes to the air in June, I expect a happy world picture.  As I say, Oil needs to be cheaper, and that will help sustain growth in the oil exporting nations also.
How do I feel so optimistic?  Well, I was looking through Bob Proctor's book, You Were Born Rich.
Bob Proctor, like Ron G. Holland, inspires confidence in the future.
May God's blessings and happiness be with you.
Kind regards,

Testimony Sunday, LDS Ilford

Posted on April 14, 2013 at 11:23 AM Comments comments ()
Many years ago, in fact 900 years before the birth of Jesus the Christ, there was an injunction given to the Prophet Elijah in Malachi 4:5-6, namely "To turn the hearts of the fathers to the children, and the children to the fathers, lest the whole earth be smitten with a curse."
In solemn and silent prayer, the Prophet Joseph Smith received a similar vision, which he conveyed to his fellow-bother Oliver Cowdrey, on 3rd April 1836 at the temple in Kirtland, Ohio. (Doctrines and Covenants, Section 110). 
This, to me, seems a very valid injunction for today's times, for the betterment of families and society as a whole. 
A few days ago I was reading some other subject, and I read somewhere that in the 1860s and 1880s, people in the U.S. earned $50,000 per annum, but some of them were so addicted to drinking, even out of such good earning their families were still poor.  It must have been an abundant blessing for many people to join the Church of Jesus-Christ of Latter Day Saints, which does not permit the taking of caffeine or alcohol. 
It is to God's glory and the wholesome grospel that this church continues to grow, with 119 temples accross the world recently, and more planned for the future, and growing congregations.  The Mormon church is a happy, family church, encouraging fellowship and values that serve the family well in their spiritual and temporal life.
Heavenly Father, I ask for your blessings upon us all, forgiving those who have trespassed against us as we forgive them likewise, and asking for Thy abundant blessings of good health, peace, and ample provision of everyday needs.  All these wholesome gifts I ask in the name of Thy Son, Jesus the Christ.
(written by Durudarshan
Melchizedek Priest, LDS, Ilford)

India's 14th 5year Budget

Posted on February 28, 2013 at 4:57 AM Comments comments ()
Both the Sensex and Nifty have drifted downwards, at the Budget announced by Finance Minister Chidambaram, which allocates increased expenditure by 19 percent to 2014, with a good measure for defense spending as well as additional provisions for Food Secuirty as well as additional provisions for Mid day meals. 
It is a Budget that has at least averted the sovereign debt downgrade, although such a downgrade would have been questionable in view of the fact that the debt to GDP is a golden 5.3 percent, making India worthy of a Golden AAA rating, in my view.
The good news for the middle class is that for first time buyers, there is a tax rebate of upto 1 lakh on house purchases upto 25 lakhs.  This will put more people on the ladder to house ownership, and provided the economy remains robust, should give a boost to the housing sector.  Demand for housing is of course at a high.  In this regard, a favourable proposal to create a Women's Bank is an Indian first, which will empower women entrepreneurs, and will certainly be the segment to invest in, as women's prudence, thrift and enterprise is a legend.  So, well done to the authorities for creating this dedicated segment for women's empowerment.
Cigerettes, liquor, imported cars, bikes and mobile (cell) phones above 2,000 Rupees are going to incur additional taxation, and those who eat in the more UMC air-conditioned restaurants are also likely to pay additional taxes.  There will be a surchage of 10 percent on incomes over 1 Crore, and those lucky people will have to fork that out for only one year.  Imported cars will become kudos, attracting additional taxation, but those who can afford will not be put off from purchasing such luxuries.
It seems a good sensible Budget, although the opposition have called it dull, boring and unimaginative.  Indeed the Chief Minister of Uttrakhand says it is a budget that is anti-poor. and makes no or scant provision for the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes.  It is apparent that the government will have to focus on this segment, and ensure that in a spirit of equality and inclusion, some extraordinary provisions are to be made for these segments, to propel improvements for all, starting from the lowest upwards.
A nineteen percent increase in expenditure over the next year leading to the 2014 election will ensure a renewed growth, and if fairly implemented, this Budget will definitely lift the doom and gloom that has so far weighed on the Indian markets.  This is a great positive Budget for growth, and the Finance Minister deserves congratulations.
Kind regards,

More, or less, quantitative easing in the U.S.?

Posted on January 30, 2013 at 6:52 AM Comments comments ()
Today the markets, and indeed the world, waits to hear Federal Chief Ben Bernanke's testimony at the FOMC, on the issue of QE.
At the moment, the quantitative easing and mortgage-backed securities buy-back is running at around $85 billion per month, and it seems to be working as job creation seems to have stabilised, the housing market seems to be trending slightly upwards, the stockmarket is rising nicely (to levels which it should have achieved last year, perhaps) and there is a growing optimism throughout the world.
The Bank of Japan has loosened up its monetary policy, and allowed the Yen to fall vis a vis the major currencies.  This is likely to help Japanese exports of their excellent products and help production pick up at home and earn them from overseas markets and provide for their economy, which seems to have started a turn-around.
The appointment of Party Chairman Xi Jinping who will assume full powers of leadership in China in March must auger well for China.  Paying heed to his ideas in the past have created a boom in China. 
Perhaps another $15 billion per month in the U.S. for a period of six months may bring America back to a full Recovery, with creation of many more jobs, doing up and sale of many more houses to hard-working citizens who are earning their living, as well as housing for social projects (perhaps funded by generous philanthropists who can turn their paper fortunes into real wealth with their hallowed names attached to the building and stocking of community centres, libraries, study centres, playgrounds, etc).
Do you think the day is far away when the generosity of the wealthy will give them soul-satisfaction, and create happiness for the people in Ghana and Nigeria who need laptops, appreciate reading real books, would be happy wearning clothes which they know are known as apparel in America?  Do you think that day is far away?
There is a subtle law of prosperity, as you add more to the stream, the richer it becomes, and riches flow into the world, and the richer everyone too becomes.
Listen to your hearts, and look at the world. 
Kind regards,

Inspiration from a church in Pasadena

Posted on November 11, 2012 at 12:29 PM Comments comments ()
Last Sunday, I was in Pasadena.   Normally in England, I go to my church here in Ilford, so I took a stroll to the local church, the Church of Christ Jesus, Scientist.
This is a great church, started with the work of Mrs Mary Baker Eddy, whose story is worth reading as an inspiration of a woman who found courage and inspiration in the works of Christ, and was inspired to write Science and Health with a Key to the Scriptures.  I have read that book, and benefited from improved health and improved outlook. 
The church building in Pasadena is beautiful, with an inscription from Christ :
     "If you believeth on me, you shall do great things;
       you shall do greater things than me;
        for I go on my Father"
I thought of the parable of Christ, where He turns two fish into five hundred, and provides water for the many.
It occured to me, that that is the same as a man who spends 500 at a club but could instead distribute a dollar each to many, people who are obviously in need. 
A few days later, on a bridge in a mall in Las Vegas, I had the good fortune to buy a bottle of water for a dollar.  This bottle retails for 99 cents in the cheapest store.  This was a great spirit, selling water to the thirsty, doing good deeds.  As I turned, I realised, that she was the same good spirit I had bought water from in the Ajanta and Ellora caves in India about eight years ago.  Once again, I realised, this is the good spirit that has come to bless me, and others who drink from her.
I wish you a happy Sunday, and may you give generously to those in need.
Kind regards,

Thanks, Search Engines! to w/e 15/9/12

Posted on September 15, 2012 at 9:17 AM Comments comments ()
Yesterday, my website had 304 visitors from Oakland, California.
Over the last week, a lot of visitors also from various parts of China.
Unusually high number from Germany.
Thanks to Search Engines for listing me and letting people find me :-
  - -  Tops, 31st weekrunning
  - - thanks
  -  (the one with the trillion dollar superbrain)
I am glad people enjoy reading my blog. 
Please let me have your comments and views.
Until next time,
Kind regards,

My blogs over last 7 days, to 5th August.

Posted on August 5, 2012 at 5:15 PM Comments comments ()
It's been so hot, and people are interested in watching the Olympics in London.  Team GB have done everyone proud in Great Britain.  This nation which has the winning style will certainly throw the remnants of recession out of the window.  What recession? Britain will be gleedfully asking.
My blogs over the last 7 days to today have been as follows :-
   Huge potential in India
   American jobs figures seem good
   RBS to be nationalised?
   Books or information creates perspective
   Who competes and how do they win at the Olympics?
   Tithe for Prosperity, follow the Scriptures for Rain.
Thanks for your visit, and I hope you continue to enjoy reading my words.
Until next time,
Kind regards,
Durudarshan - Investment Analysis.

American Jobs figures seem good

Posted on August 1, 2012 at 2:10 PM Comments comments ()
The recently released ADP figure of private sector job creation in the U.S. at 167,000 for June seems good news, after the somewhat dismal figures for May.  The lower Oil price is doing its trick, and restoring confidence and productivity into the economy.  Just imagine if such a scenario was maintained for the next six months or so.  In this regard, as long as the diplomatic stance is maintained with regards to Iran, hopefully the Oil price can too be maintained, and that I believe will help Recovery stay on track.
Federal Bank Chief Ben Bernanke has reiterated that the interest rates will remain low till 2014, and a stimulus would be introduced if warranted. 
Now that the Case-Schiller Index seems to be suggesting an improvement in the U.S. housing market, it seems to me that everything augers well for America. This can only give added courage to other economies, that the world trade and political atmosphere will continue to improve.  For this, I pray.
Kind regards,

Huge potential in India

Posted on July 31, 2012 at 4:15 PM Comments comments ()
Today's most important economic news was about India. 
There was a huge power cut in the north, affecting 18 of the 26 Indian States.  In temperatures ranging from 23 to 38 degrees Centigrade, this was a terrible experience for the 670 million people affected.  Most normally have their ceiling fans whirling; today, those who did not have generators or back up supply had to suffer the sweltering heat.  The power grid has failed over two consecutive days, slowing down traffic and making people feel miserable.  Power cuts and water shortage have become common-place in India, but not on such a scale.  To say that the infrastructure needs upgrading is not saying anything that is not obvious.
The second piece of important news was that the Reserve Bank committee had decided to hold the repo rate at 8 percent, despite the slowing economy.  The threat of inflation is seen as the main concern, but the lack of investment in Indian Bonds and the falling value of the Rupee seem disheartening. 
If people are interested in encouraging further investment into India, such as FDI to build businesses which may be mutually beneficial to the investing organisations as well as India's growth, then surely the foreign currencies coming in would be converted into Indian Rupees, and strengthen the value thereof.  In due course of time, that may happen, as more confidence builds in the Indian economy.
India has everything going for it, in terms of demographic mix and resources as well as potential for growth. 
The monsoon has delivered less rain than normal at this time of year, and this will affect the crop yields.  Water is depleted in the reservoirs, and its outflow is being rationed in most States.
However, the RainGod may show kindness and mercy on the people.  For that, I pray
Kind regards,