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Honest Information, Profitable Trading

Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

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Magnificent, the ECB Stimulus

Posted on January 25, 2015 at 5:08 PM Comments comments (8)
The Trillion Euro stimulus announced this afternoon by ECB President Mario Draghi is nothing less than magnificent in my view, and will help create jobs and industry for millions, and turn into wealth.  This stimulus augurs well for the European stockmarkets and for the Euro itself, which it now underpins with a very positive aspect.  It seems to have been announced at the right time, and although the immediate market reaction may not have been wildly enthusiastic, it is a complex stimulus, needing people to understand and digest its implications.

In plain terms, it is 60 billion Euros per month over 18 months, starting from March to September 2016, meaning a total of 1,080,000,000,000* Euros.  This was announced by Mr Draghi at the press conference in Frankfurt this afternoon.

It will serve the 19 nations that make up the Euro Area, or Eurozone, which now includes as from 1st January 2015 Lithuania.   However, it will not be available at the moment to Greece, which benefits from arrangements already in place from the IMF, which gave them two bailouts and numerous haircuts.  Perhaps there could be cross border mergers of some organisations which would benefit all?

There seems enough appetite for additional funds, especially by companies who have not been able to find funding from the banks so far.  This is a ready segment that will be glad to be served by this Stimulus.  As in England and Britain, where Mr Cameron has been visiting various companies, who have received funding now, something similar needs to be implemented in the Eurozone.  Money invested in companies which need capital for upgrades of machinery, or cash flow to keep the factories operating while their customers arrange to pay them, will maintain employment and sustain livelihoods and, hopefully, even create wealth in the long term.  That 'old school' way of trading had died recently in the credit crunch, and could well do with revival.  It may be the clue to bring Recovery back on stream.


This Trillion Euro Stimulus was long awaited, and probably is just in time, now joining the money flow in the U.S., Japan and China, to maintain the worldwide economic Recovery, which shall flourish to Prosperity for all nations.  The next stage surely must be for the BRICS nations to reduce their benchmark interest rates and for the Emerging Markets to do something similar, in due course to be followed by Africa perhaps?  Or even simultaneously, and soon?  Why not?  The national books can become squared internationally, as each nation develops its resources, trades with the other nations, and brings development and growth at home.  Would that not be the most marvellous thing to happen?


I wish you peace and prosperity, to every nation, man, woman and child.


Kind regards,

Duru-darshan


(c)  Copyright.

P.S. Earlier I left out three 0's.  Aw aw aw!


Obamacare, some teething problems.

Posted on November 5, 2013 at 7:26 AM Comments comments (3)
It appears the Obamacare rollout has had teething problems, especially with the website interfacing.
 
Perhaps they should have stuck with their initial design, just to guage peoples interest without putting them off by asking comprehensive personal details.  It's like me asking you for your personal details before allowing you to read my blog.
 
Good news comes from Professor Gruber's analysis of the figures that would need or benefit from Obamacare, and provided provisions have been pencilled in for the expenditure, the launch should be quite successful, after the rationale is accepted by Joe Public. 
 
It seems that about 14 percent of the U.S. population would need Obamacare, the other 86 percent are adequately catered for. 
 
Of the 14 percent, Obamacare seeks to enlist the young working people, who don't have any kind of health care provision.  Once these people start to sign up in numbers, I presume the premium costs would start to come down.  It has to be attractive for people to sign up, not a cumbersome figure that people would be unwilling to pay and indeed may not see the immediate necessity to pay if they are currently in good health.  Everything being equal, most people would expect to continue to enjoy good health, and it seems a foolish waste of money to buy an insurance policy for health to most young people.  However, good health carries no guarantees into the future, and it is against this that people need to have cover, seeing how people's lives are sometimes marred by ill-health and their careers written off.  It is against this realistic look that young people need to consider taking up a policy to safeguard their future.
 
(In Britain it is straightforward enough.  Everyone is levied what is termed National Insurance, which is a fixed percentrage of one's income, and universally everyone gets medical cover under the National Health Service.  Some out of personal preference for quicker or better service decide to take out additional policies with private health insurance companies.  Side by side, the NHS and organisations such as the not-for-profit BUPA and Simply Health serve the population very well, in practical terms.)
 
If lot more people show an interest in what Obamacare offers, presumably the insurance premiums would start to come down and encourage more and more people to sign on, so it would actually deliver what would become affordable health care. 
 
As the issue is debated and considered, I guess it will gather acceptance, if not straight away then over a number of years.  Good health brings great benefits in enjoyment of life and work, creating a happy atmosphere and bringing prosperity to all, a welcome place.
 
Kind regards,
Durudarshan Dadlani
 
 

Debt Ceiling, grounds for optimism

Posted on October 15, 2013 at 2:35 PM Comments comments (5)
Sound bites coming out of Washington this morning suggested that progress had been made on the debt ceiling raise negotiations, but there was still some work to be done. 
 
Indeed, NDTV was stating that a deal had been agreed in principle, to the effect that there would be 'full funding' of the government till 15th January, and thereafter a debt ceiling renegotiation date of 15th February.  If that is in fact so, that would be great news for everybody, at least they won't have to worry about the cold winds of November and can have a holiday and relax over Christmas before having to face the cold corridors of Washington in the New Year.
 
People are counting on the House Fathers Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell to bring everybody to the fold and get some agreement in principle, so that it can be presented to the world latest by Thursday.
Optimistically, everybody is waiting for such news.
 
In the meantime the U.S. Budget Office is issuing advisories in the event that an agreement is not reached.  Namely that in the event of a debt ceiling limit not being raised, the government will have run out of authority to issue any more money into the system.  In the most unlikely event of that happening, the ramifications would multiply twelve times what has happened under the Sequestration.
(The sequestration cuts totalled $85 billion over twelve months from a Q.E. budget running at $85 billion per month; hence one twelfth, so the effects of a halt would be magnified twelve times.  This is just to put in context some meat for the doomsters.  I cannot see the wise elected leaders of the U.S. ever leading America down that path, which would of course spell pessimistic scenarios for the world, as all nations trade with the U.S. and lot of people are engaged in producing something for export or working in calls centres and so forth which serves the major economies.)
 
Ideally, everybody would like to believe that such an agreement will be reached and released to the world, that full funding of the government continues until January, and then once again they can face the cold winds of February to negotiate another debt ceiling raise.  In the meantime, the funding will ensure U.S. continues to trade at full strength with the world, and create more jobs at home and abroad, creating a continuation of the Recovery that has gladly blessed this great nation. 
 
Japan is most definitely looking for an endorsement of the QE policies which they have implemented with a huge success, pulling Japan out from a phase of stagnation that lasted 20 years to what are glad welcomes of a Recovery.  China likewise is re-focusing on domestic growth; how much better it will be if things continue in a positive way across the globe, so that there is work for the workshops, freight for the transport and the oceans, everyone doing something purposeful, busy, happy, earning their livelihoods, buying houses, cars, sending their children to schools and colleges and universities, a whole world procession in progress, the army of humanity. 
 
How wonderful it will be for those wise leaders in Washington to agree upon and then issue to the world the words that signal the continuation of the economic Recovery at home, and by extension to the world.  I pray for this. 
 
Looking for inspiration yesterday, some words occurred to me, which I tweeted, as follows :
  "Have faith, just believe.  Everything will be all right, by the grace of God."
 
I sincerely believe that shall be so.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

My blogs in the last 7 days, and Referring Traffic

Posted on October 5, 2013 at 2:31 PM Comments comments (2)
Hi everyone, how are you?
I wrote and published several blog posts over the last seven days, as follows :-
  -  Germany a good model of employment
  -  Forward guidance and the UK Housing market
  -  Light a candle....
  -  Stimulus? Taper?  Where we headed?
  -  Mr Bernanke's penultimate testimony before he leaves the Fed.
  -  The paradox in inflation
  -  My blog posts this month
  -  Thanks for visiting my website.
  -  Bi-partisan Agreement or 14th Amendment, either way Debt Ceiling will be raised.
  -  Netherlands, Kansas City, Kharkov....welcome, welcome!
 
Over the 7 days, I note Referring Traffic to my website and blog (www.durudarshan.co.uk)
from the following.  I express my thanks to the staff at these organisations, for listing my website and blog....without you, all these readers wouldn't have found me so easily.  Thanks!
     -  Google.co.uk
     -  woman.seopower.su
     -  Google.co.in
     -  Stumbleupon.com
     -  t.co
     -  webconfs.com
     -  Google.com
     -  durudarshan.co.uk
     -  api.twitter.com
     -  News.Google.com
 
I am pleased to note that the value of my website is going up, and I am getting more visitors each month.  I am particularly pleased to note that I rank tops with Google.  That is thanks to my parents for having given me this unique name.  (Duru is the North Star, and darshan means obeisance). 
 
I hope you find something interesting to read on my website or blog.  I like to tune in to receive any interesting information, most of which I share with my readers.   
 
This morning, I went and helped clean the LDS Chapel here in Ilford.  I opened the windows, then squirted some bleach into the toilet pans on all three floors.  Whilst this was doing its job, I moved the chairs in the Sacrament Hall and hovered the carpet.  Just nice and easy, and the exercise did me good.  In the peace and quiet of physical labour, the mind becomes quiet and receives the Eurekas!
 
Until next time,
 
Wish you a great weekend.
 
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 

Good morning, everybody.

Posted on August 14, 2013 at 5:55 AM Comments comments (5)
I note my readers searching for Divine Supplements in Goodmayes.
The address is 855 High Road, Goodmayes, Ilford, IG3 9UZ, not far from Tesco, with ample car parking.
Telephone number is 0208 590 7900.  Shop is open only on Wednesdays and Saturdays, 10 am to 4 pm.
Other days by appointment. 
Mr Wilson there is one of the best masseurs, especially for Frozen Shoulder.
People over 75 years of age can get first massage free.
 
--------------------------------
Missingx.com  is a good website to track anything that passengers may have forgotten on British Airways planes.
 
--------------------------------
 
Anyone wanting to check my professional details could do well to check the volumes at public libraries,
or online, of : Marquis' Who's Who of the World (who have listed me since 1996) and
Stanford Who's Who (where I am listed since November 2011).  Look up Durudarshan H. Dadlani.
My e-mail is : [email protected]
mobile : 07505 830518
 
---------------------------------
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan
 
 
 
 

What's happening with the economic news?

Posted on August 6, 2013 at 10:08 AM Comments comments (12)
Recently I wrote about the Mormon church, about their production of a spiritual musical called Truth shall prevail, being staged at the Chorley, Preston temple in Lancashire.  My blog had over 1600 reads, mainly from Hongzhou in China.  Thank you, dear readers.
 
At the moment the most alarming news is from Zimbabwe, where President Mugabe has been re-elected, amidst complaints that the election has been rigged.  His comeback has been with the announcements of implementing policies of nationalisation of mining and natural resources companies.  Mr Mugabe obviously does not believe in free-market economics, nor does the devout Catholic believe in forgiveness, which he and inter-alia his nation received after he took over the white peoples' farms and handed them out to his cronies and their clans.  A nation that was once the bread basket of Africa has reduced itself to a state of constant shortages of food in the supermarkets, due to neglect of a farming sector that has lost its efficiency;  and loss of credibility overseas which have hampered imports.  Just like Zimbabwe produced the Billion Dollar notes and failed to appreciate that their currency cannot have the status of a world reserve currency, so now President Mugabe... but wait, this devout Catholic and clever student and man of the world will surely not fail to realize that nationalising assets belonging to international companies will lose international goodwill towards his nation.  And while it may be very profitable in the short term, in the long term it would be like taking a slow poison.
I pray President Mugabe's  good sense will prevail and he will not decide on such a brutal policy. I hope this man who likes to be portrayed on his country's postage stamps in the manner of a sovereign, follows policies which will leave his country a legacy where they can trade and interact with the rest of the world as a free market economy, for years to come.   Let there not be a time when the nation once again degenerates into a period of stupor and complacency, like recently when so many years were lost due to loss of goodwill abroad and lack of scientific know-how in the country. 
 
The kind gift of globalisation has been the awareness of the spirit that only with co-operation and fairness in dealings can all the nations prosper, by developing their natural resources and exchanging them with others on a fair basis.  To punish the intermediaries of such development, the international companies who operate within the boundaries and jurisdiction of every nation, would not be a welcome gesture.
 
Mr Mugabe's pronouncements have caused market jitters in the short term.  Hopefully he will heed the wise counsel of his Ministers and allow the development of his nation's enterprises continue with international know-how, expertise and capital. 
 
I have many friends from Zimbabwe at the church, and I wish them and their President well.  I hope Mr Mugabe reads my words, and heeds the advise I offer.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

Welcome, readers, my posts this month

Posted on July 31, 2013 at 1:52 PM Comments comments (4)
Hello, dear Readers, my posts this month have been as follows.  There was a slight problem with my Vistaprint site, and I was not getting the up-to-date statistics recently, so in case there has been a problem with the communication, I thought I'd bring you up-to-date with my posts :-
 
1)  Hello, Oakland, Cairo, Goma  16/7
 
2)  In God we trust, Charity, Spiritual and Temporal Blessings  17/7
 
3)  Detroit filed for Chapter 9 Bankruptcy  19/7
 
4)  Hello Everybody...Oakland, Detroit, Miami  21/7
 
5)  Could the Himalayan tsunami have been averted?  22/7
 
6)  Potholes, potholes everywhere...hello India   25/7
 
7)  Right selection, with confidence, will restore Prosperity  26/7
 
8)  Baba Ramdev shop in Seven Kings  27/7
 
9)  'I trust according to the spirit of God that is within me'  28/7
 
As always, I look forward to receiving your comments.  Keep them coming in- at lasts count, I had received a gratifying 806 comments to 1180 posts.  Wey hey, readers, I am glad to hear from you.
 
Wish you a joyful time in your activities.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 
 

Hello Everybody....Oakland, Detroit, Miami

Posted on July 21, 2013 at 12:36 PM Comments comments (1)
The Chapter 9 Bankruptcy of Detroit last Friday is a stark reminder of what happens to an economy when trust breaks down between communities and disrupts the social fabric, leading to decline and decay and a sad breakdown of an economy.
 
I understand from cursory reading of books on Detroit that the 1967 riots sparked off a distrust between the communities, and may have been the turning point for the breakdown of the economy which has now resulted to this sad, sad decline.
 
No two children of the same family will be totally understanding or obedient to their parent(s), but if family members work in harmony and common objectives, they tend to be more successful.  That rule of harmony holds true for organisations as well as for communities, there is no reason why it should not hold true for cities or even nations, hence last week I referred to Cario and Oakland but of course I should also have mentioned Miami.
 
Just imagine Detroit in the 1950s, which now appears to have been its heyday, full of harmony and enterprise, inspiring dreams, the American dream, contributing to its status as a city of great reputation worldwide, with its ballrooms, museums, theatres, skyscrapers....The industry and enterprise was there to give a livelihood to the 465,000 residents there, who soon grew to over a million and to nearly two million towards the peak.  The infrastructure was added to as it served the citizens and visitors, and the town grew to a city. 
 
The decline has seen people leave, mainly white people leaving the city to suburbs, leaving a ghetto at its core, the deserted buildings falling apart, now ready for demolition or refurbishment. 
 
The population has fallen, leaving the municipality with an income of about $1 billion a year, when it probably needs at least a billion-and-a-half just to service the interest on the bonds. 
 
A solution may be repopulation, with some company and a group of New Economy companies able to generate a lot of jobs and sustain the livelihoods of the citizens.  Obviously there is a lot of talent and raw energy, that can be purposefully employed and will create wealth and sustain the people and regenerate the city.  All that is now needed is for a few men and women of vision to locate their wealth generating companies there, and give a boost to the regeneration of the housing and public buildings.
The talent is there, you cannot stand and see a great city die.  Hopefully, the government can make a special provision for a funding programme to regenerate this great iconic city with its beautiful landmarks. 
 
As harmony exists between people, so will Recovery and Prosperity bloom in their midst. Today, I pray for restoration of faith in Detroit. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

Detroit filed for Chapter 9 bankruptcy.

Posted on July 19, 2013 at 10:39 AM Comments comments (5)
Mismanagement and corruption are two words that some reports on TV seem to suggest as possible causes of the neglect and decline of Detroit, leading today to a quickie filing of Bankruptcy.
A sad state for any community, sadder still when it has the towering GM headquarters building there.
There was a time when kids the world over associated the name Detroit with motor car production, or simply with great looking motors, the sort of cars we all wished to drive one day.  What happened to those beautiful Chevvys and Corvettes, those beautiful cars?  What happened to the whole car manufacturing industry?  What happened to the people who worked there, what happened to the houses, lying today in their tens of thousands, abandoned, neglected, derelict?
 
It seems a debt burden of $20 billion, which the municipality today cannot repay, and a neglect over a couple of decades has led today to this sad bankruptcy.
 
A programme of regeneration must materialise, surely, to put Detroit back on its feet, perhaps even put Detroit back in peoples' affections. 
 
It would definitely take the will of government to put some money into this economy, and the vision of enlightened entrepreneurs, who could probably see Detroit as a great opportunity to rebuild.  Money plus the vision of someone (I know such a person is there, but I shall not pre-empt by banding a name, although if you look in the top 100 entrepreneurs in America, you will probably see who fits the bill) will put the life back into Detroit. 
 
When houses became habitable, the people become hospitable, when a New Industry settles in Detroit, wealth will be created, wealth will grow, and life will be breathed into this neglected town.  Hope springs eternal in the human heart, that I do believe, as do the guys playing netball in the streets there.
For the regeneration of Detroit, I pray. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Oil price seems far too high to sustain Recovery

Posted on July 10, 2013 at 12:51 PM Comments comments (2)
The price of the West Texas Intermediate and the Brent crude, traded on the International Commodities Exchange (hence ICE) seems to be spiking upwards and will probably match any time soon.
 
The situation in Egypt may have caused that spiking, but since Egypt is not a major oil exporter, there can be no logical reason for the price of oil to be so affected.  However, perhaps the excuse is good that both prices move together in tandem, to create a global parity.
 
The Fitch downgrading of Italy's rating today may be contested; however, it indicates the weak state of the Recovery in Europe.  Similarly, the news from China that their boom is not so strong as figures had previously indicated (due to numbers which had been inflated) shows there is euphoria amongst the traders.   This brings a reality check, especially for the Oil price bulls, who perhaps will ignore the plentiful supply that currently prevails and the strategic oil reserves that are always there and have not been utilised for a long, long time. 
 
Why Oil price should be up under the circumstances can only be explained by some traders and commentators, whose kudos will be to make a fast buck or get some furthering of controversy on the grades and quality of oil.  Great talking points, but not anything to help the worldwide economic Recovery, which would suggest the Oil price ought to be lower.  I imagine the OPEC economists and Ministers would agree, to sustain their own economies on a growth phase.  If the rest of the world stalls, the reduction in their GDPs will automatically have an effect on the OPEC nations as well.  The world is a joined-whole, where development and prosperity moves hand in hand for all together. 
 
I have previously suggested that the Oil price needs to be under $85 a barrel for the worldwide economic Recovery to be sustained.  At that price, most of the infrastructure development in the OPEC nations can be viable, according to several Ministers comments that I have noted previously.  The current spike I hope will be only temporary, until the price starts to  trundle down once again.  Market forces and the situations worldwide will hopefully prove favourable.
 
Sometimes the numbers of contracts traded at higher prices are so thin; perhaps the reporting price ought to be based on a wider number of actual sales, from a reliable source. 
 
I will be pleased to receive your comments on this issue.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.