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|Posted on May 13, 2014 at 3:59 PM||comments ()|
The U.S. stock market has recovered and gone beyond where it was at the marking point in October 2008. I hear that even Lehman Brothers continues to make huge profits today.
The job creation in America last month was a bright number, at 300,000. My suggestion is if such a number was created for another five months, it would be reasonable to say that the economic Recovery has strengthened significantly.
No, that would not neccesitate further tapering. I am of the opinion that Dr Yellen needs to perhaps increase the QE by about $5 billion a month for the foreseeable future, until Recovery is complete.
At $45 billion a month, there is a shortage for the meantime to fund the social aspect, and cutting would have a similar impact to the dreadful sequestration, when poor students were being sent home because there was no provision for a mid-day meal for them. (Of course, the wisdom may be to ask them to bring their own lunch and provide them the opportunity for education, and keep them from turning to delinquency).
The U.S. housing market seems to have stabilised, but has still scope for improvement. While foreign investors and hedge funds will avail themselves of these opportunities, the American households are still holding to wait and see that there is sustained recovery in the jobs market with prospects long-term before they start to buy houses. I of course would suggest that they should consider now, when rates may be just edging up a little from historic highs and prices remain affordable.
On this side of the pond, in the United Kingdom, the housing market has just become stable. I don't see much upside this year, in view of cut-backs in social security for housing. A lot of the estate agents relying on government funding for housing have closed shop; and I see a few landlords putting up their big houses for sale. The time of easy regular income for landlords seems to be now over. It may be a good chance for the government to provide housing to deserving people on low incomes if the rents are actually downwards from the recent highs. That would make sense to the government purse as well as tenants.
Other than that the economy seems to be quite robust, with creation of jobs and employment opportunities for many, together with en masse creation of apprenticeships under the guidance and friendly policies of the Cameron government, which has been one of the most people sensitive government the Tories have formed so far. The multi-cultural cohesion and contented atmosphere is something to be appreciated.
The Greeks have got their economy improving, with 10 years Bonds at a yield around 6 percent. Not many moons ago, the yields were an exhorbitant 30 percent or so. The generosity of the European Union in bailing them out played a tremendous part in helping this situation to be reached. All European nations, flowers of the same bouquet, must rejoice. Spain is also seeing signs of improvement, and now that I hear of KKR looking to fund some Spanish bank, I guess the economy there will start to improve quite rapidly. The huge opportunity is there, for people who like the good climate and culture, to buy properties there perhaps for retirement, and even start businesses there, which could be a way to create jobs in Spain.
As governments adjust their policies to allow more immigration, especially to parts which are sparsely populated, more young blood can settle and rejuvenate the economies of the advanced nations. The ageing populations need looking after, and the young immigrants would be happy to come and work hard and pay their taxes, buy houses, cars, books, TVs, etc, etc. The economies would pick up. That will I believe be the second leg of Recovery.
I believe the future is very bright, as Recovery will turn to Prosperity, which could be even within six months. At least I pray for that.
|Posted on March 2, 2014 at 4:19 PM||comments ()|
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|Posted on October 15, 2013 at 2:35 PM||comments ()|
Sound bites coming out of Washington this morning suggested that progress had been made on the debt ceiling raise negotiations, but there was still some work to be done.
Indeed, NDTV was stating that a deal had been agreed in principle, to the effect that there would be 'full funding' of the government till 15th January, and thereafter a debt ceiling renegotiation date of 15th February. If that is in fact so, that would be great news for everybody, at least they won't have to worry about the cold winds of November and can have a holiday and relax over Christmas before having to face the cold corridors of Washington in the New Year.
People are counting on the House Fathers Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell to bring everybody to the fold and get some agreement in principle, so that it can be presented to the world latest by Thursday.
Optimistically, everybody is waiting for such news.
In the meantime the U.S. Budget Office is issuing advisories in the event that an agreement is not reached. Namely that in the event of a debt ceiling limit not being raised, the government will have run out of authority to issue any more money into the system. In the most unlikely event of that happening, the ramifications would multiply twelve times what has happened under the Sequestration.
(The sequestration cuts totalled $85 billion over twelve months from a Q.E. budget running at $85 billion per month; hence one twelfth, so the effects of a halt would be magnified twelve times. This is just to put in context some meat for the doomsters. I cannot see the wise elected leaders of the U.S. ever leading America down that path, which would of course spell pessimistic scenarios for the world, as all nations trade with the U.S. and lot of people are engaged in producing something for export or working in calls centres and so forth which serves the major economies.)
Ideally, everybody would like to believe that such an agreement will be reached and released to the world, that full funding of the government continues until January, and then once again they can face the cold winds of February to negotiate another debt ceiling raise. In the meantime, the funding will ensure U.S. continues to trade at full strength with the world, and create more jobs at home and abroad, creating a continuation of the Recovery that has gladly blessed this great nation.
Japan is most definitely looking for an endorsement of the QE policies which they have implemented with a huge success, pulling Japan out from a phase of stagnation that lasted 20 years to what are glad welcomes of a Recovery. China likewise is re-focusing on domestic growth; how much better it will be if things continue in a positive way across the globe, so that there is work for the workshops, freight for the transport and the oceans, everyone doing something purposeful, busy, happy, earning their livelihoods, buying houses, cars, sending their children to schools and colleges and universities, a whole world procession in progress, the army of humanity.
How wonderful it will be for those wise leaders in Washington to agree upon and then issue to the world the words that signal the continuation of the economic Recovery at home, and by extension to the world. I pray for this.
Looking for inspiration yesterday, some words occurred to me, which I tweeted, as follows :
"Have faith, just believe. Everything will be all right, by the grace of God."
I sincerely believe that shall be so.
|Posted on September 13, 2013 at 10:04 AM||comments ()|
It is good news in Europe, with purchasing managers indexes up and house prices up in United Kingdom. The unemployment rate edging downwards to 7.7 percent from 7.8 previously does not cause concern about the interest rate in the near term. The Bank of England's benchmark rate can remain at the record low 0.5 percent for the foreseeable future, perhaps another three years, until unemployment falls to 7 percent, which is the peg Governor Mark Carney has indicated.
But suppose, just suppose, employment in Britain were to pick up, perhaps using the German model of creating jobs? There, according to Euronews, the unemployment has fallen to 5.5 percent, mainly helped by creating what are called Mini Jobs. These are jobs taken by newcomers and students, perhaps earning a few hundred Euros a month for a part time job, or a Mini Job. There is no contract, no holiday pay, let alone anything towards a pension. It has no minimum wage. The rate is fixed between the employer and employee, and lasts as long as there is work, without any guarantee.
This seems a smart way of creating jobs, and enabling people earn something. It is an idea that could be copied in other countries, labour laws permitting.
It seems a good way forward to beat the dole ques, and get peoples morale up. This could eventually help balance the national books.
|Posted on July 19, 2013 at 10:39 AM||comments ()|
Mismanagement and corruption are two words that some reports on TV seem to suggest as possible causes of the neglect and decline of Detroit, leading today to a quickie filing of Bankruptcy.
A sad state for any community, sadder still when it has the towering GM headquarters building there.
There was a time when kids the world over associated the name Detroit with motor car production, or simply with great looking motors, the sort of cars we all wished to drive one day. What happened to those beautiful Chevvys and Corvettes, those beautiful cars? What happened to the whole car manufacturing industry? What happened to the people who worked there, what happened to the houses, lying today in their tens of thousands, abandoned, neglected, derelict?
It seems a debt burden of $20 billion, which the municipality today cannot repay, and a neglect over a couple of decades has led today to this sad bankruptcy.
A programme of regeneration must materialise, surely, to put Detroit back on its feet, perhaps even put Detroit back in peoples' affections.
It would definitely take the will of government to put some money into this economy, and the vision of enlightened entrepreneurs, who could probably see Detroit as a great opportunity to rebuild. Money plus the vision of someone (I know such a person is there, but I shall not pre-empt by banding a name, although if you look in the top 100 entrepreneurs in America, you will probably see who fits the bill) will put the life back into Detroit.
When houses became habitable, the people become hospitable, when a New Industry settles in Detroit, wealth will be created, wealth will grow, and life will be breathed into this neglected town. Hope springs eternal in the human heart, that I do believe, as do the guys playing netball in the streets there.
For the regeneration of Detroit, I pray.
|Posted on June 23, 2013 at 4:50 PM||comments ()|
There is something about the chemistry, about the language and communication of the mind and soul, which brings people together or drives them apart. It is this chemistry between people that I would blame for.....or, rather, a change in the chemistry between people that I would blame for separation and divorce.
I am surprised that Napoleon Hill was not given the Noble Prize, but then again there is no category in the Noble Prizes into which his work fits. Perhaps, on that point, I would suggest there should be another category created by the Trustees of the Noble Foundation. The Increasing of Human Understanding.
Napoleon Hill interviewed 500 of the most successful people in America in the 1920s, and from those interviews he wrote many articles, published in his Hill's Success Magazine. But a few people made a huge impression on him, viz Andrew Carnegie, Firestone, Henry Ford, Dr.Alexander Graham Bell, and Dr. Thomas Alva Edison. And yes, Mr Edwin Barnes, who said it could not be done, that is to say, the writing of a blueprint for success based on the interviews with successful people.
Napoleon Hill turned that into a questions: Who said it could not be done? and went on to publish his Think and Grow Rich, a book that sells well throughout the world, in many languages, in number just after the sales of the Bible, Koran and Bhagavad-Gita and other religious masterpieces.
In his research, Napoleon Hill says that the first three years of a marriage often have petty squabbles and friction, but the love that exists between the two will carry it through. The next fifteen years are those in which the lucky couple start to look alike in their eye movements and thinking, influencing their value judgements and expressions, meaning the happy couple have achieved understanding of one another, and a state of harmony exists between them that we attribute to the magic of chemistry.
A state of harmony, an instinctive understanding, an automatic understanding of mutual goals. It is like both have the same road-map, or at least complementing road maps.
Those for whom a partnership does not work, it seems are rather like a horse-drawn carriage where the horses want to pull in differing directions. Where it is not possible to bring harmony of direction, abandonment of the journey becomes the alternative. Such is what happens in business partnerships as well, and in politics as well.
A question that may help bring harmony back is : What was the road map that brought the partners together in the first place? Can it be modified and restored? If the answer is Yes, then hope still remains for reunion and success.
|Posted on May 10, 2013 at 4:43 AM||comments ()|
There seems a mood of optimism, which is founded in reality, that the world economy will grow and continue growing and people will enjoy semblance of Prosperity, which is not very far.
Most of the Central Banks have been doing their bit in the quest for convergence of benchmark interest rates, evidenced by Australia and South Korea recently, something that the IMF was calling out for about two years ago.
Japan seems to have turned the corner from a stagnant to a dynamic economy, with its GNP likely to rise in the near future, with added investments in overseas markets. This should create spending power in those places for purchase of much-liked Japanese technology. This is a great positive sign, and the quantitative easing in Japan is feeding into the world economy, adding to consumption and growth worldwide. For nations like Portugal and Spain, Japan could bankroll their Recovery, that is one scenario.
The Fed Bank regional Presidents asking rhetorical questions as to how money feeds into the real economy, they know that the Main Road banks lending to small business owners and gangs of builders to buy and do up properties and such like will be the way forward, not to mention loans to young entrepreneurs who may not have physical collateral but have intangible assets and intellectual property to their names - such will be the Bill Gates and Steve Jobs of this new generation, and backing them will pay rich dividends in the near future as they explore new frontiers of the Digital Economy. I believe a whole new world is around the corner, with more leisure time for each and every one, and utilisation of the Internet in all its glory for making life easier and more enjoyable, for more and more people across the globe. You could even say, The good times have just started again.
The stockmarkets are likely to pause for breath now, but they seem heading up and that is a sign of faith of the investing public and the money managers. It is accumulation of wealth, which augers well.
So, the bankers know how the money gets to the real people, and by lending sympathetically and not only judiciously, they will be doing their bit. All prosper together.
|Posted on May 4, 2013 at 11:20 AM||comments ()|
The tragic collapse of the eight storey commercial building in Dhaka last week which left over 500 dead is a point to reflect on.
I hear that Disney were considering stopping sourcing their goods from Bangladesh because of poor working conditions for workers which have resulted in accidents prior to last week.
If a backpack made in Bangladesh retails in the States for $10, and the alternative is one at $40, there is sufficient margin perhaps to offer more to the Bangladeshi factories...this would take off some pressure and definitely enable them improve both workers' wages as well as working safety.
Bangladesh relies on a huge number in its GDP on garment manufacturing, and prides itself as the cheapest on price. It would be amiss for buyers to pull out, thereby reducing jobs and livelihood of people. To the contrary, it may be noble to offer continued support in purchasing goods made in Bangladesh, and offering them a better price for their work. I believe it would effectively take pressure off and help them improve working conditions and safety. Next time customers in England or U.S. pay a couple of quid more on an item, they will know the money is actually reaching people to sustain their livelihoods and improve their safety at work. In this regard the Bangladeshi government could possibly expand the number of factory inspectors, and implement measures to improve peoples' safety.
In the wake of the tragedy, it is time for consumers in the West to offer ongoing support for manufacturers in Bangladesh.
|Posted on April 30, 2013 at 3:49 PM||comments ()|
A friend of mine from India was asking my opinion about the price of gold. His sister is getting married in about eight months, should they buy some ornaments now?
Well, already the price is up nearly $120 per oz after the steep price decline recently, so I guess it will trade in a price channel i.e. hit a top and then retrace. So I suggested to my friend that a buying opportunity could be in the future.
However, the couple or their parents should consider buying their own house, I suggested. That is a good investment, long term, a roof over the head and pride of ownership, better then renting, wherever the figures work out in favour.
On that note, I reckon house prices seem very attractive in Spain as well as in the English shires. Parts of rural India are also very good, for those who can live in the 30-40 degree heat during May to September.
The U.S. housing market has started to pick up, and that is a good sign for the strength of the economy. I surmise the job figures this month will be something to write about. Anyway, for the individuals and families, it is a great idea to buy a house or apartment at the record low rates. If there is job security, and more jobs are created, that would be fun. I hope the money masters can issue mortgages to people so that they can buy the houses, ultimately that will underpin the whole market and give strength and stability to the whole economy. Not to mention the happiness people have in having a house of their own.
I believe China will see improved growth this year, so for the world picture to balance, Oil needs to be a little bit cheaper.
As the Dreamliner once again takes to the air in June, I expect a happy world picture. As I say, Oil needs to be cheaper, and that will help sustain growth in the oil exporting nations also.
How do I feel so optimistic? Well, I was looking through Bob Proctor's book, You Were Born Rich.
Bob Proctor, like Ron G. Holland, inspires confidence in the future.
May God's blessings and happiness be with you.
|Posted on April 25, 2013 at 12:16 PM||comments ()|
Hello readers in Hounslow and Visakapatnam! Glad to see your visits to my website.
Swami Ramdev's herbal products and consultations for health are available from
855 High Road, Goodmayes, not far from Tesco. The phone number is 0208-590 7900.
The shop is open only on Saturdays, otherwise by appointment.
Mr Wilson there is a very good masseur, especially for frozen shoulder.
Patanjali Yogpeeth products are also available from Sira's Cash and Carry, Hounslow.
Online from www.natureandherbs.com who can send you products from Glasgow.
The Bank of England has extended its Lending for Funding programme for another year.
Hopefully capital will become available in the way of simple to apply for and readily obtainable loans for enterpreneurs and small businesses through the High Street banks. If printed money is going to turn into wealth, that would be one way of doing it. People have the courage to borrow and invest and thrive, and once the bankers start their lending with gusto, it will become a jamboree in England.
The figures from the ONS this morning show the UK economy growing at 0.3 percent for the first quarter of this year. Considering the weather was severely cold with snow during January, the weather being fine now should indicate even more improvement in this current quarter.