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Honest Information, Profitable Trading

Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

My Blog

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How stimulating!

Posted on March 7, 2013 at 4:30 AM Comments comments (5)
Cup of herbal tea, a little square of chocolate....?  Perhaps a cup of decaf, smooth as milk?
 
Today is Thursday, when the Bank of England and the ECB will issue some statements regarding
the interest rates (which are already at an all-time low) or other measures to stimulate the economies
in Europe.
 
After the recent aggregate £375 Billion pumped into the U.K. economy, Sir Mervyn King has to ponder the question of whether another £50 Billion stimulus would be prudent and necessary.  Are the MPC allowed to open their minds to him? 
 
If I had the privilege of sitting on the MPC (which I would welcome at some point in the future, even gratis), I would suggest looking at it this way:  the recent stimulus of £375 Billion quantifies at around for a population of 66 million, at £5681 per head.  By contrat, the U.S. economy, with a population of 330 million, has had a recent stimulus post-2008 of 3T, quantifying at $9090 per head.  At current exchange rate for cable, that is £6060 per head in U.S., so the U.K. would be justified in doing another £379.60 per head, or....well, simple multiplicaion by 66 million....another £25 Billion or so to bring it to par with the U.S. (who will be probably stimulating further).
 
The British landscape shows a picture of shops which are not too busy, but you can't blame people for not spending what they haven't got.  The average social security payment is between £42 and £92 per week, just about enough to eat some simple food and drinks, so money for buying clothing or beds or curtains and such things is a bit scarce, compared to the bankers bonuses (being awarded from money which the banks are hoarding from the stimulus).  More of the stimulus needs to go to retail customers, either through increase in social net, or through direct lending at sensible rates, so the poor don't become victims of the sharks.
 
An additional stimulus of £25 to £50 Billion would be in order, I believe.  Not only that, to feed in an additional £5 per head may require stimulus of upto £275 Billion in due course, leaving scope for another £225 over the next year or 18 months.  That really would be sufficient to stimulate the economy in England, and make it the green and pleasant land it is, with a landscape of thriving businesses and factories, and restaurants (Chinese, Indian, Italian, Greek, Thai, Lebanese, et al), and proud house-owners and expensive cars being driven at a sedate pace. 
 
Such is how it should be, Sir Mervyn.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 

25 Years after they became Rich

Posted on December 14, 2012 at 6:12 AM Comments comments (1)
It is almost a sermon for the times that may be surmised from the reading of two books.
 
There is a chapter in Think and Grow Rich, which tells of a fabulous party at a hotel where eight of the richest and most influential men of those days are assembled.  They transact business deals that make them even richer.
 
You Were Born Rich picks up the thread of the story 25 years later.  Some of these multi-billionaires have died in poverty,  others ended their own lives. 
 
What was motivating and inspiring in one book gives pause for thought in the second.  Not that there is anything wrong in accumulating wealth, but some of these people had overlooked one law of life.
 
According to Bob Proctor, who is a great inspirational writer, such a law is to love humanity, not wealth.  The reversal of that law creates misery. 
 
Surmise what you will from the above, be happy and stay rich, for you were born rich.  So long as money keeps circulating in the system, and doesn't sit there "in a jar", everything should be okay, for not only is humanity born rich, we all are the spiritual wealth of God.
 
As Christmas nears, do as the Good Lord would have us do, and show your kindness to the world.
 
Wish you all a Merry Christmas.
 
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Gurdas Knowledge Action

Posted on August 30, 2012 at 5:26 AM Comments comments (6)
Last few days people have put search phrases relating to Gurdas Sidhu and Knowledge to Action, and somehow found their way to my website, as I wrote about them in May at the time I attended the Business Show.
 
Since then, I have attended a couple of talks on the Stock Markets and the Forex Markets, held by Knowledge to Action and their new offshoot, Learn to Trade.  Greg Secker, who is said to be a very successful trader, owns this organisation.  His aim is to mentor successful traders.   Gurdas Sidhu is a professional trader, who became a successful trader before he graduated, running a mini Hedge Fund from his student room.
 
I have read through their literature and feel they can teach their method to people, to make money trading.  However, I am not sure if all students have the patience to actually study and then apply the rules they learn.  Nor of course is there any guarantee that if you trade by the rules then your trades will be successful. Market conditions constantly change.  Even the best looking chart formations do not necessarily follow through if investor interest is not there. 
 
Knowledge to Action offer a good course, where would be successful traders and future millionaires can purchase the software, do the immersion training on a Live Trading Floor in Chelsea Harbour for two days, then progress from there with a six month coaching programme, where they can sit at home and learn from a once a week Mentoring programme.  It is close to hand-held training to be a good trader.  It is a good course for people wishing to work in stockbroking or hedge funds or become self-employed traders.  Diligently studied and applied, the rules probably create more winners than losers. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Olympics, Prosperity, Hope....

Posted on August 13, 2012 at 6:49 AM Comments comments (1)
Dear Readers,
Thanks for visiting my website and blogs, I am glad to note that between 125 and 190 readers each day have read my blogs. 
 
List of blogs over last 12 days this month are as follows, as you may wish to read them:-
 
    -  Who competes and how do they win at the Olympics?
    -  Tithe for Prosperity, follow the Scriptures for Rain.
    -  The Olympics Feel Good Factor.
    -  DOW Jones Index going to try for 15,000 by the end of the year?
    -  Olympians training may provide inspiration for UK economic Recovery.
                         (Same could be said for Greece, Spain, India, every nation)
    -  Industrial production slumps in India, but there is hope....
   -  Living the gospel of Jesus Christ.
 
Please do let me know your comments.  I am always glad to hear from my readers.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Tithe for Prosperity, follow the Scriptures for Rain...

Posted on August 5, 2012 at 12:37 PM Comments comments (5)
Today it was an energizing and inspiring gathering at the Church in Ilford. 
 
In the chapter on Faith in Jesus Christ (in Gospel Principles), I learnt that to have Prosperity, it is
essential to pay tithes.  It makes sense; money goes round in the wheel of prosperity. 
 
"We want to have rain in due season and to have peace in the land without observing the Sabbath as a holy day and without keeping the other commandments of the Lord," according to teachings of President Kimball, of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints.
 
These are two important yet overlooked principles.  I hope we can all put these into effect, and then see if God does not answer our prayers. 
 
If God our Heavenly Father who keeps the galaxies moving in perfect timing, should have given certain princples to be observed, then perhaps we ought to see if there is cause and effect by meeting the logic of those principles.
 
All I will say is that my heart leapt with joy when I saw these words, this very clear message.  There should be no loss of time to put it into effect.
 
In the name of Jesus Christ our Savior, who is the Love, the Light and the Way.
 
Amen
 
(written by Durudarshan
Melchizedek priest)
 
 

Amitabh Bachchan to run with the Golden Flame

Posted on July 26, 2012 at 5:51 AM Comments comments (5)
Bollywood Badshah Big B Amitabh Bachchan will be running with the Olympic Torch today, Thursday, participating in the relay of the Golden Flame from Above as it thrills its way through London towards the opening ceremony at Stratford tomorrow.
 
Excitement is certainly mounting up for the opening ceremony to the Games.  The weather is just beautiful, giving visitors a natural welcome.
 
The £9 billion spent on the Olympics is money well spent.  With the recently unveiled Shard Building, the City of London will attract ever more visitors and friends.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 

Things should only get better for Greece and Spain...

Posted on July 23, 2012 at 5:31 PM Comments comments (0)
The markets became jittery from the word go today, overnight in Asia, followed by Europe, and starting off on that footing in the U.S.  The main concern seemed to be the Greek situation, and it seems Germany and the Eurozone are now quite prepared to accept a Greek exit, although no nation would like that, and certainly it would not be beneficial at all for Greece. 
 
Perhaps a change of mind set is the remedy in Europe, to dwell on the positive and broadcast what is being done to restore stability and growth, rather than talk about the future as if it is a foregone acceptance that the future will not be so rosy.  Such is the illusion and not the reality.  No intelligent population is going to stop innovating and adadpting to the new challenges and opportunities availalbe.  The governments job is to ensure a secure, stable environment and empower people with licences to start work and production; and the banks to provide the capital to empower people in their dealings. 
Government printed notes and minted coins are the legal tender, the accepted IOUs, that all nations have to issue in proportion to their resources, their living standards, and the size of the population.  I believe Basel is where they keep the books on the printing and issuance of all national currencies, and those books are constantly updated and scrutinized.
 
Greece has received some very sizeable bailouts, and of course Mr Antonios Samaras is deserving of sympathy when he says his nation is in a Great Depression.  Now is the time for him to show his leadership and pull Greece out of that situation.  Under the aegis of the ECB and European Union, his nation has received a lot of help.  Similarly with Spain.  They have received help of funds recently, so it is alarming to see the strikes and demonstrations in Madrid and Barcelona, which have done little good internationally, pushing up the cost of borrowing for Spain.  The leaders and people of these two great nations must restore faith in their economies, and gently guide their people to a path of growth and happiness.  Austerity must never be so severe that it is unacceptable, and the wealthier European nations must show their sympathy and accept this fact. 
 
Once all nations are aligned to keeping the Euro in existence and through this maturing phase for what is a relatively new currency,  all nations will be able to enjoy the fruits such unification will bring.  The Euro is the Mother Currency of 17 European nations, and all these nations must be aligned in favour of it and building its strength.  Quite soon, I believe things will turn in favour of the Euro.  If the margins are adjusted for the Greek and Spainish Bonds, then favourable results will follow there also.  I hope all nations can afford to be generous to these sister nations, these flowers of the same bouquet.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

The ECB drops rate to 0.75 percent

Posted on July 5, 2012 at 10:36 AM Comments comments (1)
Amidst detecting signs that the economy is still on the road to Recovery but in need of a stimulus, the ECB has announced a rate cut from  1 percent by 25 basis points.  This seems a step in the right direction, as the supply of credit is available from the banks but enterprise needs that extra encouragement of a stable low long term rate to borrow and invest for growth.  Hopefully this will be the silver bullet for growth in Europe, as the Central Bank of China has also cut its main rate by 31 bps to 6 percent. CORRECTION : the rate has been cut to 6 percent, not 3.5 percent as previously noted in error.
 
All the major economies ought to be moving in tandem, and to help the cause of worldwide economic Recovery and resume consumerism of a required and sustainable scale to create jobs, encourage house and auto purchases, and improve spending on the High Streets, the required ingredient in my considered opinion is the lowering of Central Bank repo rates among the BRICS countries.  The rate for example in India and Russia is unsustainably high, and not conducive to growth.  If the mature economies have used this formula as a tool for stimulus, why not the BRICS countries also?  Brazil and South Africa too have potential to use this tool.  And, why not? After all, the world has the Oil price as a constant - it is priced in dollars, and has led to inflation everywhere with its recent highs. If the mature economies see it as a benefit to stimulus to have low interest rates, why not the BRICS nations also?
 
A repo rate of 8 percent in India has seen the Manufacturing Index drop in recent months, and the figures are suggesting a slowdown, which will impact globaly.  The emerging market economies need to stimulate growth, and here they have the benefit of being resources-rich, with young populations and potential and need for building houses, hospitals, bridges, airports, railways,roads, etc, etc, etc.
A rate of 8 percent stifles growth, it frightens industries from borrowing, in view of the global demand picture.  But if the domestic demand can be encouraged, with delivering of higher standards of living for the population, this would be an added blessing and more trade can result worldwide. 
 
The manufacturing numbers in Europe seem to be mildly better then previous months, and if industry now takes courage and starts borrowing and investing and creating jobs and consumerism, the anthem for Recovery can continue to play. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

What should it be?

Posted on July 4, 2012 at 4:30 AM Comments comments (0)
As the world awaits what the ECB Chairman Mario Draghi will announce on Thursday, a rate cut or some additional stimulus, the question that needs to be asked is :  what is really needed?
 
With overnight deposits at the ECB running at around Euros 820 Billion, and withdrawls hardly Euros 320 million, I think it is self-evident that the wherewithal for growth in Europe is already there... 819 Billion Euros plus parked in vaults is a fantastic figure!  As to a rate cut, it does not seem necessary.  At one percent, it is pretty low -  otherwise the banks would not find it profitable to lend vigorously, they'll just do inter-bank deals, collect their cut and go for lunch. 
 
The solution which is taking place with improving numbers for the manufacturing indexes (although below the 50 level) is a return to confidence, the confidence to borrow, the confidence to lend, the confidence to spend and the confidence to grow, a confidence to try and balance the books with China and India and Brazil and OPEC, and a confidence to create jobs, confidence to fill up the empty houses, and a confidence to acknowledge that the world system has always existed on credit for further growth, and this generation cannot be any different. 
 
If this generation is fine and we pull ourselves out of this sticky patch where lack of confidence has slowed things down, then austerity will be replaced by an ambience of happiness and growth, sustaining people to their expectations and dreams of a more fulfilling, more promising, more prosperous future.
It is a natural agenda.  People on welfare benefits will be happier if work is given to them, which would fill up the empty offices and factories and warehouses and the idling computers. 
 
The world has to fully awake and arise, and not have another recession in the midst of plenty.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

Floods in Assam

Posted on July 2, 2012 at 11:54 AM Comments comments (8)
The torrential rains have caused huge floods in Assam, as normally happens every year or so on the East coast of India.  The rural farmers huts are all under water, and upto a million people have become displaced, homeless, wet and with few boats available to help ferry them to dry land, let alone helicopters or anything like that. 
 
The UPA leaders, Mrs Sonia Gandhi and the Prime Minister have both taken the trouble to go there in person, to see that rescue efforts are being well organised.  Although not much can be done, it must be reassuring to see the caring Prime Minister there on the scene.  He has announced emergency funds from central government of 500 Crore rupees for rebuilding of peoples houses and drainage and repair of bust dams.  A Crore is approximately £125,000, so that gives a figure of about 62.5 million pounds, or 100 million dollars.  This figure will certainly go some way to helping Assam, although of course it can be argued that much more aid is needed.  A million displaced people receiving aid of about 100 dollars per head to rebuild their lives is hardly enough. 
 
Dr Manmohan Singh-ji has also announced the provision of rice and dhal and other grains for the displaced people, and this will be delivered to them as soon as practicable.
 
About 70 people have lost their lives in this deluge, and this seems to happen almost every year.
More drainage could be built, as well as whatever is possible to fend off against torrential rains that is possible. 
 
Meantime, some farms in Maharashtra and Andrash Pradesh have become arid due to lack of rains.
Wonder if some solution could be found, in addition to praying to the RainGod.
 
I pray for the safety and rehabilitation of the people of Assam.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.