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Honest Information, Profitable Trading

Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

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What are the chances of the worldwide economic Recovery continuing this year?

Posted on January 2, 2016 at 11:19 AM Comments comments (16)
The chances are pretty decent of the worldwide economic Recovery continuing this year, with the promising possibility of enhancement.

Japan seems to have decided to continue its Stimulus, running at some $85 billion a month.  This is gigantic for the size of their population, and guarantees the highest standards of living in the world to all Japanese citizens, plus a growing influence around the world, where their capital is likely to foster growth and development.  For example, they have offered $35 billion to India for joint venture in developments of infrastructure, and this will certainly add to Japanese GNP.

India has done joint venture and co-operation treaties with Germany and France, to help develop some of the 100 new cities that Pradhanmantri Shree Narendra Modi announced at the beginning of 2015.  Since then, he has visited China and Russia, and is signing up co-operation and trade agreements with every likely nation, including many in Africa.  As a lot of Indians lived in Africa and grew up there, it seems India is taking an altruistic stance, wishing to repay with gratitude to their African brothers and sisters.  This is a laudable gesture, and will enable the inherent and huge potential growth that is in places such as Lagos and Zimbabwe. 

China too is extending its sphere of influence, Hon Xi Jinping visited so many nations and signing up trade and co-operation treaties.  I can imagine joy for all these nations, where they will have expertise been made available to them, together with the machinery and transportation to fully benefit from their resources as well as create infrastructure developments which they so badly need.  How can people not imagine dams, electricity, drinking water available on the doorstep, schools, dispensaries, hospitals, hotels, housing, tourists.....thriving economies....where God has blessed them with the rich fertile lands, mineral wealth, green vegetation, fragrant flowers, livestock to provide them plenty of milk.  Africa is most likely to come up with the most number of billionaires soon....or if not, at least top social entrepreneurs who will instead contribute to their lands through holding together and creating business enterprises which serve the communities.  If not dollar billionaires, these will be the enlightened spiritual billionaires who will do great good for their communities....at once, their people will have increasing standards of living.  If the local African banks can back these entrepreneurs, they can create the development and wealth and growth that is the potential.  I pray all these people receive the rich blessings from God.

The United States has steadily grown from the dark days of the 2008 meltdown to today, where the economy seems to have been totally restored, and is growing, with confidence, more jobs, more enterprise, more homeowners, more cars......Now the Fed will just need to fix the Debt Ceiling (in March, it seems).  If they just expand the balance sheet to January 2017, the Obama administration will be home and dry, and all the senators and representatives can continue to collect their pay checks. 
The alternative policies of the Tea Party crowd or Republicans like Donald Trump would see Obamacare repealed, and poor students being sent home due to lack of a free lunch at school.  Those dark days caused due to sequestration are something that is best forgotten. 

I pray Hillary Clinton shall become elected as the President at November 2016.  Simply, it seems her destiny.  It would resonate with the times and the perceptions of people today, everybody seeking self-expression in a democracy.  Her election will enshrine the highest achievement in gender equality.  That is a truth the people will not wish to hide, nor deny themselves. The time has come for this Democrat to rise as the dove, and sit in the highest office in the land.

She was very successful as a peacemaker in the Middle East when she was the Secretary of State.  She has a natural gift for making peace agreements, and people trust her.  She is a natural ambassador for peace.  The world atmosphere will change when she becomes President, the whole tone of political relations will change, I believe, for the better.  It is up to the people, to honour her, and elect her to the White House. 

The One Trillion Eighty Billion Stimulus that the European Central Bank has rolled out has the promise of being extended beyond September 2016, as announced by their President Mario Draghi recently.  That will offer ample scope for upgrade and innovation by the companies in the Euro Area (and by extension Europe) to meet the challenges of these times.  On that note, the one thing the world is waiting for is the Juncker Plan.  With reforms under way, Greece must surely be ready for it.

The low Oil price has depleted the reserves of the oil exporting nations, and their budget deficits have been bigger than envisaged.  That suggests they will review their stance on cutting productions, and introduce some cuts before long; their stance has hurt their purses deeply, so some change may be expected.  Russia too could follow suit, unless they are happy to foster a recession at home.  Common sense would suggest oil price could begin to rise.....but when is only known to the bigwigs in OPEC and Russia.  It is past the post-panic stage; it seems it is a time when they must be regretting not cutting back production earlier.  And there would be no loss of face.  Economic reality seems pretty harsh.

May I wish you good health and joy for the New Year.

Kind regards,
Durudarshan H. Dadlani

(c) Copyright, but may be freely shared.

2015 may be a very good year, but caution ahead

Posted on February 6, 2015 at 7:09 AM Comments comments (12)
Two Thousand and Fifteen may become a very good year, for most nations.

In China, where they recently cut rates and introduced a Trillion Dollar stimulus, the dynamics of internal growth and development as well as for the export markets suggests robust growth.  The Honourable Xi Jinping is quoted as saying that China will achieve a new standard in progress.  His words are welcome, and should give heart to anyone who may be fearing a slowdown in China.  The actual production and shipments overseas ( I hear huge ship loads arriving in Britain, and for the first time in many years hear the trains ferry the goods across in the middle of the night in a huge procession) testify to that.

In the U.S., the start of Prosperity which I had foreseen for November 2014 seems to have materialised, and heatmaps of happiness continue to grow for the people there, with increasing numbers of auto purchases, mortgages taken out on single family units, more people in work both seasonal and permanent, lower Oil prices (although that is a mixed blessing), and good weather, apart from the recent snow.

I see the DOW going upto 18,500* by June this year, although the prospects for 2016 may be mild, with perhaps the saving grace of Hillary Clinton becoming elected as the President.  Sentator Jeb Bush is a strong candidate, but I detect the dynamics at play will ensure the Democrats will again have tenure of the highest position in the land. 

*I am just expressing my opinion, based on the logics of what I perceive.  People should speculate at their own risk.

The Oil producing nations will have to work in co-operation and ensure a stable oil price, otherwise their dollar-denominated revenues will not meet the cost of their imports, and may lead to ques outside empty supermarkets, waiting to buy stocks (g00ds) which are being rationed, as in Venezuela. 
It makes me cringe in shock to see the situation in Ukraine, where the rebels loyal to the Soviet leadership are wrecking havoc and creating ghost towns, where life seems at 1950s levels.  Mr Putin can be generous and call these people off.  He must extricate himself from this very messy situation.  It is doing no one any good.  Once peace is restored in this region, hopefully the Rouble will recover, and help people in Russia share the common prosperity that is developing worldwide.  Oil seems to be bouncing around levels which may be optimum, and which may prove good for everybody, including the newly formed shale and fracking operators.  Mr Putin has to apply the generosity principle, and help the kindred folks in Ukraine.  That conflict is just so unnecessary, it is just like bullying people who at one time Mr Putin was willing to big a brotherly hug.  I just don't believe it.

Under Pradhanmantri Shree Modiji, India is on track for the fastest growth since Independence, although the recent industrial productions figures at 2.6 percent seem so faint.  Provided the RBI decide to enjoin the procession of Recovery and lower the benchmark repo rate, things should improve.  There is a great natural appetite for investment into India, with the right atmosphere.  Creating a major air hub to compete with what exists in the Arab Emirates may be a good raising of the bar, but let us all wait and see what will actually materialise.  But in the meantime, the commencement of building a 100 new cities seems a great vision, and Modiji has my congratulations.  I hope his BJP policymakers and bureaucrats will ensure implementation and fulfilment of such measures.

The caution that I mentioned....while times are good, save a little for the future, and build some reserves for the second half of 2016, when it will all come in handy.


May the Lord's blessings be upon all.


Kind regards,

Durudarshan H. Dadlani


(c) Copyright. 



 





Positive actions would make everything good

Posted on October 29, 2013 at 7:08 AM Comments comments (11)
Following in the math of the sequestration cuts, followed by uncertainity about the U.S. Debt Ceiling raise, and the unwanted shutdown and furloughs, it seems apparent that confidence has taken a bit of a knock, especially with regards to the United States economy, but obviously timely positive action would restore that. 
 
The news that Ms Janet Yellen was nominated by Mr Obama to the chair of the Federal Reserve was actually happy news to the markets, welcoming this dove of the financial system, assured that the punchbowl would be replenished and the taper would be quite some time away now. 
 
Once that nomination is confirmed by one and all, that would send the right signal and boost the confidence that the economy needs right now, in view of the temporary fix of the nation's capacity to continue funding itself until only 15th January 2014. 
 
Around that time Chairman Ben Bernanke steps down, and willing bi-partisan co-operation to extend
the reserve balance capacity and support Ms Yellen in her post will ensure great and much needed stability to the world financial system, and not only to that of the United States.
 
The housing numbers yesterday were obviously disappointing, indicating a shake in the confidence of house buyers.  That is but natural, in view of the uncertainity created by the last-moment and then only such a short temporary fix of the situation. 
 
When I was in California and Las Vegas last year, October and November, I met lots of people and heard their stories about how hopeful they are, and how they are happy working hard, to buy their first house and know things are okay with their economy.  These were people who are taxi-drivers, concierges, receptionists, cleaners, waiters, waiteresses, a scientist working for an oil major, people who had made America their home, and who were sharing in the American dream.
 
It can obviously help the well-being of the nation if normal lending practices continue, where the individual man or woman and families are encouraged to buy their own houses, with the confidence in the system that things will continue positively, so they can believe in the virtue of borrowing and investing for the future. 
 
The oil price on both sides of the Atlantic is so high, and hopefully needs to be around the $85 mark to encourage normal growth in the economies outside the G20 nations.  Their depleted reserves and devalued currencies vis a vis the major currencies don't give them a chance.  A dose of kindness now would greatly assist growth throughout the world, which would bring great mutual benefits to all nations.  When we eat the food that we can so easily buy which has been exported from some country, we must spare a thought for the people there, who may not be able to afford such items in their own countries.  When I wear my beautifully stitched shirt, my heart sends blessings to the factory workers in Bangladesh.  It was heartening news to hear of American companies giving them continued support and helping them make the textile industry safe for workers. 
 
With such friendship and trade between nations, each cog will help turn the small wheel which in turn will drive the greater wheel, and the path to continued economic Recovery, and yes, ultimately a growing Prosperity for all, shall continue.  For that I pray.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 
 

How is the economic Recovery likely to continue?

Posted on October 28, 2013 at 8:34 AM Comments comments (101)
It has taken all of five years for the world economies to be restored to semblance of normality from the dark days of 2008.
 
Remember those days when the interest rates were quite high in the advanced economies, anything from 4 to 7 percent - and that for the benchmark European Central Bank, Federal Reserve and Bank of England rate. 
 
The crisis created by the collapse of Lehmann Bros sent shockwaves throughout the financial system worldwide, with stockmarkets tumbling, loss of confidence in trade, fall in house prices, and a mood of pessimism gripped the world. 
 
At the vortex of the crisis, when Oil price reached $147 per barrel, according to OPEC AND European Union figures, about $250 billion additional bills were imposed on the European Union's oil expenditure, and what a terrible crisis it created, making transportation and manufacturing unviable in many countries, e.g. Portugal, Spain, Greece, the extra drain sucking the life-force out of the system. 
At the peak of the crisis, people who were earlier working in the textile industry were suddenly without work, and wondering how they would find their cod-and-chips.  Enterprising young people and old were trying their hand at the e-commerce economy, and finding lot of work but little revenue.  The Prime Minister of a sovereign nation which was so prosperous not so long ago was visiting the heads of state of various nations, asking for help.  The social security systems were severally stretched, the tax revenues not corresponding to the new outflows.  The interest on the bonds became quite high, to attract investors.  Talented people from universities were not able to find opportunities to make a living. 
Demand on housing was as high as ever, but people didn't have money to rent, nor were banks willing to extend mortgages.  Indeed, banks and loan corporations were suddenly unviable, after the property price plunge and bankruptcies of many individuals. 
 
Today, comparatively, there has been a return of confidence.  Things are getting better.  Spain, Portugal and Greece have seen their bonds become more attractive to international investors.
But the worst is hardly behind us, yet the oil price remains so high.  The pending closure of the Grangemouth Refinery is an indicator of the havoc the oil price plays with the balance sheet of such businesses.  A business that was viable up until recently today stands in need of £300 million, with that it would support 800 jobs until trade is more favourable.  This may be a microcosmic illustration of what could be in store for the OPEC nations, unless they decide to reduce the oil price to a level that is affordable to the rest of the world, and would give the OPEC nations an on-going stable income on a long-term basis into the future, and allow the world to breathe, and help sustain Recovery. 
 
It took two-and-a-half years after the high oil price knocked the economies for six for a return to some kind of normal business activity.  Common sense tells me that the high price today will probably hamper growth for about a year-and-a-half, and it is already restricting growth and causing hardships in many places, e.g. Yemn, Kenya, India, and almost all the nations outside the G20. 
I WOULD RESPECTFULLY SUGGEST THAT THE OIL PRICE NEEDS TO BE BELOW $85  A BARREL.
 
That would help the hard-pressed developing nations meet their bills from their depleted reserves or devalued currencies, and enabling continuation of trade with the U.S., China, European Union, Israel and indeed OPEC, which would create a dynamic of mutual co-operation and support that may help all nations thrive and develop all their potential.  That is the missing piece of the jigsaw in the picture of a continuation of the worldwide economic Recovery. 
 
All the listening hearts of the world know what I am saying, and those who sit in positions of influence will do what is necessary, for that I pray.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

Andhra Pradesh and Odisha cyclones

Posted on October 26, 2013 at 12:27 PM Comments comments (92)
It seems a frequent occurrence, the coming of typhoons and cyclones that seem to hit the Eastern board of India every year, often hitting Odisha the hardest, together with Andhra Pradesh as well as Bengal.
 
This October, cyclone Phailin landed at Gopalpur in Odisha with a core speed of 200 Kilometres per hour, reducing to matchsticks the flimsy dwellings in the low-lying areas, flooding vast majority of farmland and dwellings.  Fallen trees and power lines added to the problems in travelling. Thanfully early warming of the oncoming SuperCyclone enabled the local municipal authorities put into action evacuation plans, together with assistance from the Army and Navy, which were on standby, and so only a tiny number of people lost their lives this time, compared to the 10,000 last time.
 
Nearly a million people had been evacuated, with a timely and well-ordinated effort by the authorities.  Social media must have helped, emphasising the dangers of flooding and the ferocity of the winds, and, most important, how much time they had to get out of harm's way.  Villagers became convinced of the seriousness and left for the safety of higher areas and strong public dwellings, travelling at the last minute by buses laid on by the local councils.  Thankfully, so many people saved their lives by not ignoring the messages. 
 
About 100,000 people were similarly affected in Andhra Pradesh also.
 
Odisha Chief Minister has requested the government in Delhi to provide approximately a billion pounds over and above the 572 million pounds which would be available in the state disaster response fund, such has been the devastation left by Cyclone Phailin. 
 
The government and local authorities are stretched trying to provide food, shelter and rehabilitation for the million plus people affected in the last fortnight.
 
As if that was not bad enough, another cyclone has hit the same region today, killing 29 and leaving another 85,000 marooned.  The government and the local communities have a huge task of rebuilding and rehabilitating nearly 1.3 million people in Eastern states, some of the poorest and least developed in India.  It would be a great blessing for the people if this encourages the construction of alternative housing in such areas. 
 
In the meantime, again I pray for the safety and well-being of the people of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh and Bengal.
 
Respectfully Invoking our Saviour's prayer I intone :"Winds, be thee still".
 
May God's love and care be with the people there.
 
Amen
(written by Duru-darshan
Melchizedek priest at Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints, Ilford)
 
Good news heard today, 9th November 2013.
Indian Prime Minister has announced allocation of funds of 1,000 Crores each for Odisha and Andhra Pradesh.  (approx. 1 Billion Pounds each).
 
 
 
 
 
 
  

Hello Putian, Beijing, China....

Posted on October 23, 2013 at 3:29 PM Comments comments (9)
Recently I've had a lot of visitors to my blog and website from Putian as well as Beijing. 
 
I note the Indian Premier Dr Manmohan Singh has been to visit Beijing soon after his trip to Moscow, and
things are looking good for co-operation on peacefully observing each other's shared borders as well as increase in friendly relations and trade.
 
My personal hope is to become nominated by the Congress Party of India (UPA) as the Prime Ministerial candidate for May 2014.  Should my wish be fulfilled with approval of Rahul and Mrs Sonia Gandhi, I would be thrilled and would go to India straight away to start campaigning in earnest. 
 
I have a vision for India as a good neighbour to China, Russia, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Afghanistan and the whole region, as well as to unlock the huge potential that there obviously is for growth of infrastructure such as roads, bridges, dams, power generation, further irrigation, as well as housing, hospitals, schools, universities, and so on, which would utilise the resources and cater to the public, as well as use the skills and expertise internationally in building up this great nation.  I have lived in London the last 41 years, and see the n-th degree developments of this nation (United Kingdom) as something India could well try to aim for.  I imagine that with India's resources both of the peoples' savings and growing expectations of improvements in living standards, it would fit hand-in-glove. 
 
It is regrettable that there have been skirmishes on the international border with Pakistan, especially just after Dr Manmohan Singh-ji had constructive talks with Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif in New York recently. Mr Nawaz Sharif  has a great reputation as a man of his people and a positive personality, who would only wish the best for his people and continuation of peaceful co-existence with India.  The Indian PM has offered bilateral talks on this issue to find a resolution, and I sincerely hope common-sense and peace prevails once again.
 
I hope my readers will be able to make an accurate picture of what I would like to do, and I would welcome your comments on this matter.
 
In the meantime, I wish you a peaceful and happy evening.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 
 

My blog posts this month

Posted on September 28, 2013 at 5:43 PM Comments comments (42)
Thanks for visiting my blog and website, I hope you found something interesting to read.
 
There seems a constant swirl of stacks of information, both online and in printed form.
 
Most of the relevant information that makes an impact on affairs is both time sensitive and scarce,
that is the information that I try and gather and interpret, for my own reference as well as to share with my readers.
 
I wrote these blogs this month....I am happy a lot of people enjoy reading my take on various topical issues, with several thousand visiting my blog just last Friday and Saturday, especially from Chicago.
 
  Hello guys, wear your thinking caps on...
  Mr Bernanke's penultimate testimony before he leaves the Fed.
  Forward guidance and the UK housing market
  Light a cancle...
  Thanks for visiting my website
  Notes from the LDS chapel, Ilford
  Germany a good model of employment
  The paradox in inflation
  Stimulus?  Taper?  Where we headed?
  Bank of England forward guidance.
 
Have a read, and let me know what you think. 
In the meantime, thanks to all the readers who have written in their
compliments and suggestions.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 

Indian Rupee fall overdone

Posted on August 22, 2013 at 8:21 AM Comments comments (6)
You know, there was a time when Twelve and a half Indian Rupees exchanged for a U.S. Dollar.
Today, the rate is 65 Rupees to the Dollar.  Hardly a month ago, it was 55 Rupees.
For a country with U.S.$277 Billion in reserves, and a debt to GDP ratio of about 27 percent, this is
clearly selling the Indian Rupee too cheap. 
What sort of policies have been in place that the currency has virtually fallen 400 percent against the greenback, in a period of less than two decades, when the growth in India has been quite healthy while the mature economies have structurally slowed down? 
What is the purpose of encouraging foreign inflows of capital which periodically take flight and cause a panic in the markets? 
Of course, with the Rupee at current levels, most overseas investors see this as a golden opportunity to invest in India.  And the Finance Minister, Mr P. Chidambaram, has confirmed that inflows have been very healthy, and as it is absorbed into the system, a healthy picture will emerge.  Growth for the 2nd half of this year is expected to be much improved, with exports increasing month on month.
Can't blame anyone for snapping up quality Indian goods at ridiculous prices, can you?
 
The Reserve Bank of India's repo rate of 7-1/2 percent is really responsible for the slight slowdown that Indian industry and consumerism have seen over the last year and a half.  When the picture is so healthy, why should the RBI offer such a high rate to attract overseas investment?  When compared to the mature economies, the differential is more than 5 percent and as much as Seven and a quarter percent.  Is anyone listening?  What is the logic of it?  When India has enough for good growth, why does she need foreign inflows which periodically make the currency bleed?
 
The best announcement is that the RBI will not take any policy measures to try and curb the current and temporary fall of the Rupee to the absurd level. 
 
On 5th September, the new Governor of the RBI will assume his office, and both Corporate India and the public wait with hope to see what path he follows to restore robust growth and much need relief for consumers in India.  More people wish to buy houses and cars, take out loans for education and travel.  India needs must add to the world economic growth story, and an orderly drop in the repo rate would prove the tonic.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Welcome, readers, my posts this month

Posted on July 31, 2013 at 1:52 PM Comments comments (4)
Hello, dear Readers, my posts this month have been as follows.  There was a slight problem with my Vistaprint site, and I was not getting the up-to-date statistics recently, so in case there has been a problem with the communication, I thought I'd bring you up-to-date with my posts :-
 
1)  Hello, Oakland, Cairo, Goma  16/7
 
2)  In God we trust, Charity, Spiritual and Temporal Blessings  17/7
 
3)  Detroit filed for Chapter 9 Bankruptcy  19/7
 
4)  Hello Everybody...Oakland, Detroit, Miami  21/7
 
5)  Could the Himalayan tsunami have been averted?  22/7
 
6)  Potholes, potholes everywhere...hello India   25/7
 
7)  Right selection, with confidence, will restore Prosperity  26/7
 
8)  Baba Ramdev shop in Seven Kings  27/7
 
9)  'I trust according to the spirit of God that is within me'  28/7
 
As always, I look forward to receiving your comments.  Keep them coming in- at lasts count, I had received a gratifying 806 comments to 1180 posts.  Wey hey, readers, I am glad to hear from you.
 
Wish you a joyful time in your activities.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 
 

Mixed signals about the economic picture

Posted on July 30, 2013 at 8:08 AM Comments comments (2)
There seem to be mixed signals about the economy. 
 
The OPEC countries exported oil worth $1.27 Trillion last year, so that much wealth has been created for their economies and the nations who trade with them.  What is baffling is the high Oil price, which in my calculation is far too high to sustain Recovery.  Couple that with an observation made by Prince Al-waleed bin Talaal that in view of increasing shale gas production, especially in the U.S., the world is less reliant on oil from OPEC, meaning declining demand in years to come.  Most OPEC nations' infrastructure development projects would stay on line were the price per barrel no less than $85, that was according to Sheikh Al-Naimi and Sheikh Al-Badari as well as the Algerian oil minister about a year ago. 
 
The housing numbers from the U.S. on the Case-Schiller map have not been as robust as was expected; indeed, housing starts have been the slowest for 18 years.  While reduced inventory is holding up prices, there needs to be much more construction activity.
 
In the meantime, Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycles Research Institute, who looks at the leading indicators, suggests he has seen figures to indicate a slow-down, which would probably show up in the real economy in another four-five months time.  Corrective measures by government and big corporations in creating jobs and a resurgence of confidence could help to avert that scenario. 
 
All humans like to eat and drink well, dress well, live in comfortable housing, have good transport, have good entertainment, read books, listen to music, watch movies, play in the park, go on holidays, and so on, and people always have aspirations that the economy - in the combined efforts of all to innovate, develop, utilize and monetize all that God has put on earth - will help them with improving standards of living.  That is what everyone wants. 
 
Good news from the U.S. is that they are creating about 150,000 or more jobs each month, and today sees the announcement by Amazon of the creation of 5,000 jobs at their HQ.
 
I suggest a lower Oil price would help Recovery regain its sure steps, for a worldwide economic Recovery.  I pray for that.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.