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Honest Information, Profitable Trading

Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

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2015 may be a very good year, but caution ahead

Posted on February 6, 2015 at 7:09 AM Comments comments (12)
Two Thousand and Fifteen may become a very good year, for most nations.

In China, where they recently cut rates and introduced a Trillion Dollar stimulus, the dynamics of internal growth and development as well as for the export markets suggests robust growth.  The Honourable Xi Jinping is quoted as saying that China will achieve a new standard in progress.  His words are welcome, and should give heart to anyone who may be fearing a slowdown in China.  The actual production and shipments overseas ( I hear huge ship loads arriving in Britain, and for the first time in many years hear the trains ferry the goods across in the middle of the night in a huge procession) testify to that.

In the U.S., the start of Prosperity which I had foreseen for November 2014 seems to have materialised, and heatmaps of happiness continue to grow for the people there, with increasing numbers of auto purchases, mortgages taken out on single family units, more people in work both seasonal and permanent, lower Oil prices (although that is a mixed blessing), and good weather, apart from the recent snow.

I see the DOW going upto 18,500* by June this year, although the prospects for 2016 may be mild, with perhaps the saving grace of Hillary Clinton becoming elected as the President.  Sentator Jeb Bush is a strong candidate, but I detect the dynamics at play will ensure the Democrats will again have tenure of the highest position in the land. 

*I am just expressing my opinion, based on the logics of what I perceive.  People should speculate at their own risk.

The Oil producing nations will have to work in co-operation and ensure a stable oil price, otherwise their dollar-denominated revenues will not meet the cost of their imports, and may lead to ques outside empty supermarkets, waiting to buy stocks (g00ds) which are being rationed, as in Venezuela. 
It makes me cringe in shock to see the situation in Ukraine, where the rebels loyal to the Soviet leadership are wrecking havoc and creating ghost towns, where life seems at 1950s levels.  Mr Putin can be generous and call these people off.  He must extricate himself from this very messy situation.  It is doing no one any good.  Once peace is restored in this region, hopefully the Rouble will recover, and help people in Russia share the common prosperity that is developing worldwide.  Oil seems to be bouncing around levels which may be optimum, and which may prove good for everybody, including the newly formed shale and fracking operators.  Mr Putin has to apply the generosity principle, and help the kindred folks in Ukraine.  That conflict is just so unnecessary, it is just like bullying people who at one time Mr Putin was willing to big a brotherly hug.  I just don't believe it.

Under Pradhanmantri Shree Modiji, India is on track for the fastest growth since Independence, although the recent industrial productions figures at 2.6 percent seem so faint.  Provided the RBI decide to enjoin the procession of Recovery and lower the benchmark repo rate, things should improve.  There is a great natural appetite for investment into India, with the right atmosphere.  Creating a major air hub to compete with what exists in the Arab Emirates may be a good raising of the bar, but let us all wait and see what will actually materialise.  But in the meantime, the commencement of building a 100 new cities seems a great vision, and Modiji has my congratulations.  I hope his BJP policymakers and bureaucrats will ensure implementation and fulfilment of such measures.

The caution that I mentioned....while times are good, save a little for the future, and build some reserves for the second half of 2016, when it will all come in handy.


May the Lord's blessings be upon all.


Kind regards,

Durudarshan H. Dadlani


(c) Copyright. 



 





Magnificent, the ECB Stimulus

Posted on January 25, 2015 at 5:08 PM Comments comments (10)
The Trillion Euro stimulus announced this afternoon by ECB President Mario Draghi is nothing less than magnificent in my view, and will help create jobs and industry for millions, and turn into wealth.  This stimulus augurs well for the European stockmarkets and for the Euro itself, which it now underpins with a very positive aspect.  It seems to have been announced at the right time, and although the immediate market reaction may not have been wildly enthusiastic, it is a complex stimulus, needing people to understand and digest its implications.

In plain terms, it is 60 billion Euros per month over 18 months, starting from March to September 2016, meaning a total of 1,080,000,000,000* Euros.  This was announced by Mr Draghi at the press conference in Frankfurt this afternoon.

It will serve the 19 nations that make up the Euro Area, or Eurozone, which now includes as from 1st January 2015 Lithuania.   However, it will not be available at the moment to Greece, which benefits from arrangements already in place from the IMF, which gave them two bailouts and numerous haircuts.  Perhaps there could be cross border mergers of some organisations which would benefit all?

There seems enough appetite for additional funds, especially by companies who have not been able to find funding from the banks so far.  This is a ready segment that will be glad to be served by this Stimulus.  As in England and Britain, where Mr Cameron has been visiting various companies, who have received funding now, something similar needs to be implemented in the Eurozone.  Money invested in companies which need capital for upgrades of machinery, or cash flow to keep the factories operating while their customers arrange to pay them, will maintain employment and sustain livelihoods and, hopefully, even create wealth in the long term.  That 'old school' way of trading had died recently in the credit crunch, and could well do with revival.  It may be the clue to bring Recovery back on stream.


This Trillion Euro Stimulus was long awaited, and probably is just in time, now joining the money flow in the U.S., Japan and China, to maintain the worldwide economic Recovery, which shall flourish to Prosperity for all nations.  The next stage surely must be for the BRICS nations to reduce their benchmark interest rates and for the Emerging Markets to do something similar, in due course to be followed by Africa perhaps?  Or even simultaneously, and soon?  Why not?  The national books can become squared internationally, as each nation develops its resources, trades with the other nations, and brings development and growth at home.  Would that not be the most marvellous thing to happen?


I wish you peace and prosperity, to every nation, man, woman and child.


Kind regards,

Duru-darshan


(c)  Copyright.

P.S. Earlier I left out three 0's.  Aw aw aw!


www.durudarshan.co.uk/blog

Posted on November 9, 2013 at 6:12 AM Comments comments (19)
My thanks to the staff at these Search Engines for listing and indexing my website, and to Vistaprint for so beautifully hosting my website over last 28 months.  It has built from strength to strength, drawing many visitors each day. Thanks to all :
                        Stumbleupon
                        Google (the multi-trillion dollar brain)
                        Twitter  (tweet tweet to you)
                        LinkedIn (professional and so well defined)
                        j.mp
                        Yahoo (book readers love you)
                        Bing (looks like people like spy thrillers)
                        and, just for good measure, a few porno sites, harmless fun is okay I'd say.
 
My blogs being read overnight are as follows :
  -  The ECB's 25 basispoint cut
  -  Stephanie Ruhle, CNBC interviewer 
         (She's actually an anchor for Bloomberg, working in New York)
  -  This is time for buyers to support Bangladesh factories
          (American companies have done so, may blessings be unto them)
  -  Thomas Sugrue's review of The Last Great Prophet
  -  The Bank of America share price.
 
----------------------------------------------LIZZIE--------------------------------------------------------------
 
Yesterday I heard the news that China has experienced good growth and far from a hard-landing which people feared it is experiencing very sound growth, with PMI figures up and increasing. 
 
One commentator has stated that China has several trillion dollars of reserves for investment, so I imagine the worldwide boom can continue.  Today I heard that 80 percent of visas being taken for visits to Portugal are for Chinese property investors.  This way, all economies with an open-door policy to encouraging property ownership and immigration would benefit from the Chinese wherewithal to sustain growth and Recovery. 
 
If the Chinese sources are suggesting U.S. is looking for $561 Billion for next six months, it augers well for the U.S. that the jobs numbers were pretty good and growth potential is inherent in America, and it would be very probable that China would support such borrowings and support, as they have done in the recent past. 
 
The luxury sector may start to rebound in China, who continue to buy Rolls Royce cars and jets as never before, and with the refocus on domestic consumption and increasing exports from China, it is apparent that the Honourable Xi Jinping is inspiring policies that will help the Chinese people achieve higher standards of living. 
 
For stability and optimism into the near future, what more could the world wish for?
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Obamacare, some teething problems.

Posted on November 5, 2013 at 7:26 AM Comments comments (3)
It appears the Obamacare rollout has had teething problems, especially with the website interfacing.
 
Perhaps they should have stuck with their initial design, just to guage peoples interest without putting them off by asking comprehensive personal details.  It's like me asking you for your personal details before allowing you to read my blog.
 
Good news comes from Professor Gruber's analysis of the figures that would need or benefit from Obamacare, and provided provisions have been pencilled in for the expenditure, the launch should be quite successful, after the rationale is accepted by Joe Public. 
 
It seems that about 14 percent of the U.S. population would need Obamacare, the other 86 percent are adequately catered for. 
 
Of the 14 percent, Obamacare seeks to enlist the young working people, who don't have any kind of health care provision.  Once these people start to sign up in numbers, I presume the premium costs would start to come down.  It has to be attractive for people to sign up, not a cumbersome figure that people would be unwilling to pay and indeed may not see the immediate necessity to pay if they are currently in good health.  Everything being equal, most people would expect to continue to enjoy good health, and it seems a foolish waste of money to buy an insurance policy for health to most young people.  However, good health carries no guarantees into the future, and it is against this that people need to have cover, seeing how people's lives are sometimes marred by ill-health and their careers written off.  It is against this realistic look that young people need to consider taking up a policy to safeguard their future.
 
(In Britain it is straightforward enough.  Everyone is levied what is termed National Insurance, which is a fixed percentrage of one's income, and universally everyone gets medical cover under the National Health Service.  Some out of personal preference for quicker or better service decide to take out additional policies with private health insurance companies.  Side by side, the NHS and organisations such as the not-for-profit BUPA and Simply Health serve the population very well, in practical terms.)
 
If lot more people show an interest in what Obamacare offers, presumably the insurance premiums would start to come down and encourage more and more people to sign on, so it would actually deliver what would become affordable health care. 
 
As the issue is debated and considered, I guess it will gather acceptance, if not straight away then over a number of years.  Good health brings great benefits in enjoyment of life and work, creating a happy atmosphere and bringing prosperity to all, a welcome place.
 
Kind regards,
Durudarshan Dadlani
 
 

Narayani Namastute!

Posted on October 19, 2013 at 12:21 PM Comments comments (7)
When I get so many readers from Kansas City to my blog, I think Narayani Namastute! Narayani Namastute!  Yes, on the auspicious  day of Full Moon, as it was yesterday, and with the conjunction of the debt ceiling raise decision in the U.S., I was wondering what the Kansas City Fed Chairman Narayanan Kocharlakota was thinking.  I haven't read anything in the press, but he is normally an advocate of quantitative easing with deliberate measure.  In this regard, again, it is early days to see a ballpark figure of the debt ceiling raise, and for the 4 months of January 15th, Congress has announced that the U.S. government will be fully funded.  Their Comptroller is likely to know what that means, and how much money will continue to flow into the system until then. 
 
In the meantime, it must be a great relief that the shutdown has been lifted.  Never again, I can hear everyone saying.  People have lost income and business, tourists have suffered not being able to visit monuments and museums they may have especially travelled over the States to visit.  The short but very long 14 days have cost the U.S. dear, to the tune of some $24 Billion in lost revenue and productivity.  The lesson is clear, such a shutdown over an extended period would cause the economy to slow down, and the economy to lose something on the GDP measure.  It is like an economy in good shape being told to trim down.  Never again, I hope.
 
As to the ballpark figure, my suggestion is $1.32 Trillion over 20 months, which works out at $66 Billion per month.  After payment of some $60 Billion per month for the social security net, that leaves $6 Billion per month for enterprise and job creation.  Jobs ranging in pay from $20 or $30,000 per annum to $250,000 per annum could be created, perhaps 300,000 or 400,000 per month.  And he presto! within six months the U.S. would have whizzed on from Recovery to Prosperity. 
 
But that's just a ballpark figure I am suggesting.  At current Stimulus of $85 Billion per month, maybe it could be different.  In view of the regime of Abenomics in Japan and their Stimulus of $85 Billion per month, the per capita differential is in Japan's favour.  It is a theme to be explored over the coming days. 
 
I am glad to note the global economic order has been stabilised after the agreement in the U.S. on the debt ceiling raise.  As they all enjoy four months of relative calm and stability until 15th January and then to 7th February, I trust they will have this in mind and not give everyone, including themselves, a tough time. 
 
Certainly, the costings and implementation of Obamacare is something they can review and see how technically it would be best implemented.  The beginnings of the British NHS took about 40 years in gestation, before it received the blessing as a Royal Charter in 1947 under the kind King George.  Obamacare is by comparison in its infancy, and needs to be tweaked and explored before this very sound principle can bring benefits to the citizens and the nation.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 

What would happen if there were no Debt Ceiling raise?

Posted on October 8, 2013 at 3:41 PM Comments comments (6)
Each one can imagine some kind of bleak scenario, in the event that the Debt Ceiling was breached and there was no agreement in Washington between the Republicans and Democrats. 
 
At the moment, the world watches in exasperation as the two sides debate and give a very mixed impression.  As they gleefully remain entrenched as to what they will concede or not, the time is ticking away to 17th October. 
 
Japan and China have wondered at the shutdown, and why it is not being lifted swiftly.  In those nations, such a situation, were it ever to arise, would be reversed as a matter of honour and in the interests of not impeding the economic engine.  It would be done swiftly with a command from the leadership. 
 
In the U.S., by contrast, as is the nature of democracy, every fine detail has to be debated.  That is fair enough, but time is running out nevertheless.
 
In the event that there is no Debt Ceiling raise by 17th October, one can envisage a bleak picture where government will not be able to pay its employees, which of course also includes the Representatives and Senators who have defended very narrow corners and brought about the current shutdown and the furloughs, disrupting peoples' daily routines and reducing their paypackets.  Of course this would have an impact on the economy overall were it to continue for any length of time.  Just over a week has gone, and the mood on the stockmarket has been subdued.  If it were to continue for consecutive 21 days, probably it would cause a disheartening mood, which would dampen the feelings and start a down-turn.
 
Secretary of State for the Treasury Mr Jacob Lew has said there would be about $30 billion for cash-flow, in a 'four trillion dollar enterprise'.  That may be sufficient for 12 days, which would take everyone to 29th October.  If there was no agreement by then, can you imagine anything but the stock markets falling, a fear factor and a lack of confidence, people being laid off by private enterprises as well.  I would bet the Oil price would plummet, demand would be so drastically reduced.  The domino effect would be worldwide, nothing short of alarming.  It would be like looking at Greece in its recent dark days, only the U.S. is a much bigger economy, with over 16 times the population of Greece.  Not only that, what is the sovereign currency of a well-functioning economy and the Reserve Currency of the world would have its standing compromised. 
 
I trust they have some arrangement in place, whether by bi-partisan co-operation, putting aside for the moment the other issues which are dividing them at the moment, and agreeing to a Debit Ceiling raise by 17th October; or, arrangements in place to allow the President to exercise his prerogative under the 14th Amendment and sign in an amount that would be prudent and necessary. 
 
Mr Obama has mentioned that the debt burden has been reduced by Two and a Half Trillion in the last few years, so his Administration's policies have been productive and praiseworthy, pulling the whole economy out of a severe recession and creating a nation with huge heatmaps of happiness, which have  provided growing confidence worldwide.  The sooner the uncertainity regarding the Debt Ceiling raise is removed, the better will it be for the whole world.  America's well-wishers and creditors alike would feel good, a positive mood of certainity and predictability for future growth would continue worldwide.
 
The last Debt Ceiling raise in August 2011 has proved efficacious, and so there would be universal approval and applause for such a measure this once also.  Those who believe in doing right by their fellow humanbeings, let them also do right by the currency that says 'In God We Trust'. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

Thanks for visiting my website.

Posted on September 21, 2013 at 6:09 AM Comments comments (5)
Thanks for visiting my website and reading my blog.  I hope you found something interesting.
 
Life is fun, with demands on time in so many directions.
 
Thursday I went to the Community Centre in Cricklewood.  Every Full Moon, they do prayers to Satnarayan Swami and Mata Laxmi.  It is a tradition we Sindhis have followed for generations, to pray to God and Goddess to give us peace in the household, and prosperity in our business affairs.
 
Later I visited the Southbank Centre, attracted there by the exhibition of her Picasso like painting by
Sangeeta Roshni Babani (she is an inspired painter from Mumbai, and she's Sindhi too, so I thought I'll
pay there a visit).
 
Sangeeta hadn't obtained her visa, and therefore could not be there.  Other artists from India exhibited
their creations alongside a few of Sangeeta's paintings. 
 
Particularly I liked a table whose top opens in segments like a fan, and this is adorned by mirrors.
This is by Yamin Mohiuddin from Hyderabad.  I can see such a piece adorning some young one's bedroom or even a hairdressing salon.  It would look good in a media company's foyer. 
 
If you like genuine teak furniture, like a chair crafted like black petals, or a palm made of teak, and don't mind paying about £800 for such items, Firdos Furnishers of Nagpur have several pieces on display.
 
An English idea that seemed to catch everyone's eye was Gerrad the Second.  This is a folding dog that looks like an inspired work of origami, with 188 sections to unfold and paste together very very carefully with Uhu glue.  The small ones sell for £20, and are limited editions of 500.  Fair enough.  They have decorative prints of dollar notes, piping, mascots, newspaper cuttings and so on, like industry or sector or indeed national mascots.The large ones, including one made of black wool decorated with harlequin squares, well, those will become collector's items, starting in an auction in 2014 at £1,000.  Absolutely grand.  Made by Liam from Liverpool.
 
 #####################################sangeeta############################################
 
Today I missed going to the Millionaire Mentors Bootcamp at the Hilton, London Bridge.  There is a free general entrace, generously hosted by Raymond Aaron, the bestselling author.  Problem is, it starts at 9 am on Saturday and Sunday.  Just a bit too early to travel up there for me;  otherwise it seems an event worth attending.  Finishes at 6pm both days.  Bootcamp to give you quick fire ideas how to boot up your ideas and send them skyrocketing.
 
 
I am sure someone can suggest ideas to make my website and blog into a money minting machine.  Well, hold my hand and show me the way. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.

Germany a good model of employment

Posted on September 13, 2013 at 10:04 AM Comments comments (6)
It is good news in Europe, with purchasing managers indexes up and house prices up in United Kingdom.  The unemployment rate edging downwards to 7.7 percent from 7.8 previously does not cause concern about the interest rate in the near term.  The Bank of England's benchmark rate can remain at the record low 0.5 percent for the foreseeable future, perhaps another three years, until unemployment falls to 7 percent, which is the peg  Governor Mark Carney has indicated.
 
But suppose, just suppose, employment in Britain were to pick up, perhaps using the German model of creating jobs?  There, according to Euronews, the unemployment has fallen to 5.5 percent, mainly helped by creating what are called Mini Jobs.  These are jobs taken by newcomers and students, perhaps earning a few hundred Euros a month for a part time job, or a Mini Job.  There is no contract, no holiday pay, let alone anything towards a pension.  It has no minimum wage.  The rate is fixed between the employer and employee, and lasts as long as there is work, without any guarantee. 
This seems a smart way of creating jobs, and enabling people earn something.  It is an idea that could be copied in other countries, labour laws permitting.  
 
It seems a good way forward to beat the dole ques, and get peoples morale up.  This could eventually help balance the national books.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Hello, guys, wear your thinking caps on...and read my blogs.

Posted on September 9, 2013 at 4:48 AM Comments comments (2)
Good morning, everybody.
 
I note that a few readers have been reading my blog overnight, especially on topics like Quantitative Easing, the Euro.  The most popular blogs have been as follows, if you wish to read them too :-
 
1)What good would exiting the Euro do for Greece?
2) Would Quantitative Easing or Credit Easing help?
3) Where's the potential growth for the future?
4) Where's the chocolate I kept in the fridge?
5) You can sense the sense of duty Mr Obama has to America
6) What the mind of man can conceive and believe, it can achieve.
 
I imagine you will hear some impassioned debates on TV and the media in days to come.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 

Mixed signals about the economic picture

Posted on July 30, 2013 at 8:08 AM Comments comments (2)
There seem to be mixed signals about the economy. 
 
The OPEC countries exported oil worth $1.27 Trillion last year, so that much wealth has been created for their economies and the nations who trade with them.  What is baffling is the high Oil price, which in my calculation is far too high to sustain Recovery.  Couple that with an observation made by Prince Al-waleed bin Talaal that in view of increasing shale gas production, especially in the U.S., the world is less reliant on oil from OPEC, meaning declining demand in years to come.  Most OPEC nations' infrastructure development projects would stay on line were the price per barrel no less than $85, that was according to Sheikh Al-Naimi and Sheikh Al-Badari as well as the Algerian oil minister about a year ago. 
 
The housing numbers from the U.S. on the Case-Schiller map have not been as robust as was expected; indeed, housing starts have been the slowest for 18 years.  While reduced inventory is holding up prices, there needs to be much more construction activity.
 
In the meantime, Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycles Research Institute, who looks at the leading indicators, suggests he has seen figures to indicate a slow-down, which would probably show up in the real economy in another four-five months time.  Corrective measures by government and big corporations in creating jobs and a resurgence of confidence could help to avert that scenario. 
 
All humans like to eat and drink well, dress well, live in comfortable housing, have good transport, have good entertainment, read books, listen to music, watch movies, play in the park, go on holidays, and so on, and people always have aspirations that the economy - in the combined efforts of all to innovate, develop, utilize and monetize all that God has put on earth - will help them with improving standards of living.  That is what everyone wants. 
 
Good news from the U.S. is that they are creating about 150,000 or more jobs each month, and today sees the announcement by Amazon of the creation of 5,000 jobs at their HQ.
 
I suggest a lower Oil price would help Recovery regain its sure steps, for a worldwide economic Recovery.  I pray for that.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.