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Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

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Remembrance Day at the LDS, Ilford

Posted on November 10, 2013 at 11:40 AM Comments comments (9)
Remembrance Day at the Ilford chapel of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints was marked by the Bishop and congregation paying respects to the memories of the heroes and heroines who gave their lives in the quest for freedom from tyranny and injustice. 
 
How great a freedom we enjoy today as citizens of England is all due to the heroes and heroines who laid down their lives, as well as those valiant men and women who helped negotiate peace and brought forward this day into being.
 
Brother Jeremy Boyden : "We remember all those who made the ultimate sacrifice, like our Saviour, and we mark this day when peace was first agreed between all nations, on 11th November 1918".
 
The President's wife Sister Saltzman read a poem about Flanders Fields.
 
The Bishop's son, Brother Michael Onaolapo Jnr : "Greater love hath no man then He who gave up His own life so that others may live."
 
Sister Shannon Pickering, who was baptised in the Ilford ward two weeks ago, spoke a few words about the loving atmosphere that prevails in this land, thanks to people like her gransparents who did their bit during the war.
 
Sister Joanne Boyden read a famous poem, starting The glory shines upon my tears....She read the bit about hopes and expectations and stars and then became very emotional.  (I asked her later; she explained that her Mother lost two brothers in the war). (For the Fallen, Robert Laurence Binyon).
 
Brother Michael Lighten paid tribute to the great example of Captain Noel Godfrey Chavasse, recounting events in the Captain's life  in the Royal Army Medical Corp, who had to combine civilian with military duties at the front, where he saw within a few hours 189 casualties out of 600.  Captain Chavasse worked behind enemy lines for four hours, just 500 yards to safety.    On another occasion just 25 yards from enemy trenches. Altogether, Captain Chavasse saved the lives of approximately 20,000 men.
On another occasion, he worked with protection against an attack of mustard gas.
     Noel picked up his torch, and rose up in his time, working against impossible conditions of mud, blood and water.  Captain Chavasse was decoated with a rare second Victoria Cross.  Such men are rare indeed, and we all recall his courage with awe and celebration.
 
"For their tomorrows, we give our today"  John Maxwell Edmonds.  That was the spirit of the unknown solider, great soul who's memory we salute today.
 
We stood and paid our respects to the memories of the men and women who have won the freedoms that have greatly contributed to the enjoyment of peace and peaceful life that England enjoys today.
 
Bishop Onaolapo made these closing remarks : "We are here because of the sacrifices the soldiers, male and female, have made for us.  That is why the great atmosphere of stability and safety, friendliness and love prevails in this nation.  I am sure this country will go from strength to strength because of that, and I am proud to be a citizen of this great country of ours."
 
I believe this sums up the congregations sentiments on this day, when we salute those whose lives were lost, as well as those who brought about peace.
 
May God's blessings be upon all.
 
Amen
(written by Duru-darshan
Melchizedek Priest,
LDS Ilford ward)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Obamacare, some teething problems.

Posted on November 5, 2013 at 7:26 AM Comments comments (3)
It appears the Obamacare rollout has had teething problems, especially with the website interfacing.
 
Perhaps they should have stuck with their initial design, just to guage peoples interest without putting them off by asking comprehensive personal details.  It's like me asking you for your personal details before allowing you to read my blog.
 
Good news comes from Professor Gruber's analysis of the figures that would need or benefit from Obamacare, and provided provisions have been pencilled in for the expenditure, the launch should be quite successful, after the rationale is accepted by Joe Public. 
 
It seems that about 14 percent of the U.S. population would need Obamacare, the other 86 percent are adequately catered for. 
 
Of the 14 percent, Obamacare seeks to enlist the young working people, who don't have any kind of health care provision.  Once these people start to sign up in numbers, I presume the premium costs would start to come down.  It has to be attractive for people to sign up, not a cumbersome figure that people would be unwilling to pay and indeed may not see the immediate necessity to pay if they are currently in good health.  Everything being equal, most people would expect to continue to enjoy good health, and it seems a foolish waste of money to buy an insurance policy for health to most young people.  However, good health carries no guarantees into the future, and it is against this that people need to have cover, seeing how people's lives are sometimes marred by ill-health and their careers written off.  It is against this realistic look that young people need to consider taking up a policy to safeguard their future.
 
(In Britain it is straightforward enough.  Everyone is levied what is termed National Insurance, which is a fixed percentrage of one's income, and universally everyone gets medical cover under the National Health Service.  Some out of personal preference for quicker or better service decide to take out additional policies with private health insurance companies.  Side by side, the NHS and organisations such as the not-for-profit BUPA and Simply Health serve the population very well, in practical terms.)
 
If lot more people show an interest in what Obamacare offers, presumably the insurance premiums would start to come down and encourage more and more people to sign on, so it would actually deliver what would become affordable health care. 
 
As the issue is debated and considered, I guess it will gather acceptance, if not straight away then over a number of years.  Good health brings great benefits in enjoyment of life and work, creating a happy atmosphere and bringing prosperity to all, a welcome place.
 
Kind regards,
Durudarshan Dadlani
 
 

Debt Ceiling, grounds for optimism

Posted on October 15, 2013 at 2:35 PM Comments comments (5)
Sound bites coming out of Washington this morning suggested that progress had been made on the debt ceiling raise negotiations, but there was still some work to be done. 
 
Indeed, NDTV was stating that a deal had been agreed in principle, to the effect that there would be 'full funding' of the government till 15th January, and thereafter a debt ceiling renegotiation date of 15th February.  If that is in fact so, that would be great news for everybody, at least they won't have to worry about the cold winds of November and can have a holiday and relax over Christmas before having to face the cold corridors of Washington in the New Year.
 
People are counting on the House Fathers Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell to bring everybody to the fold and get some agreement in principle, so that it can be presented to the world latest by Thursday.
Optimistically, everybody is waiting for such news.
 
In the meantime the U.S. Budget Office is issuing advisories in the event that an agreement is not reached.  Namely that in the event of a debt ceiling limit not being raised, the government will have run out of authority to issue any more money into the system.  In the most unlikely event of that happening, the ramifications would multiply twelve times what has happened under the Sequestration.
(The sequestration cuts totalled $85 billion over twelve months from a Q.E. budget running at $85 billion per month; hence one twelfth, so the effects of a halt would be magnified twelve times.  This is just to put in context some meat for the doomsters.  I cannot see the wise elected leaders of the U.S. ever leading America down that path, which would of course spell pessimistic scenarios for the world, as all nations trade with the U.S. and lot of people are engaged in producing something for export or working in calls centres and so forth which serves the major economies.)
 
Ideally, everybody would like to believe that such an agreement will be reached and released to the world, that full funding of the government continues until January, and then once again they can face the cold winds of February to negotiate another debt ceiling raise.  In the meantime, the funding will ensure U.S. continues to trade at full strength with the world, and create more jobs at home and abroad, creating a continuation of the Recovery that has gladly blessed this great nation. 
 
Japan is most definitely looking for an endorsement of the QE policies which they have implemented with a huge success, pulling Japan out from a phase of stagnation that lasted 20 years to what are glad welcomes of a Recovery.  China likewise is re-focusing on domestic growth; how much better it will be if things continue in a positive way across the globe, so that there is work for the workshops, freight for the transport and the oceans, everyone doing something purposeful, busy, happy, earning their livelihoods, buying houses, cars, sending their children to schools and colleges and universities, a whole world procession in progress, the army of humanity. 
 
How wonderful it will be for those wise leaders in Washington to agree upon and then issue to the world the words that signal the continuation of the economic Recovery at home, and by extension to the world.  I pray for this. 
 
Looking for inspiration yesterday, some words occurred to me, which I tweeted, as follows :
  "Have faith, just believe.  Everything will be all right, by the grace of God."
 
I sincerely believe that shall be so.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Bi-partisan Agreement or 14th Amendment, either way Debt Ceiling will be raised.

Posted on October 4, 2013 at 2:59 PM Comments comments (3)
It is a concensus worldwide, and not only in Washingdon D.C., that the Debt Ceiling which needs to be raised to avoid a default, which the U.S. certainly does not wish to entertain, will be raised, be it (preferably) by bi-partisan co-operation and agreement in Congress, or by Presidential Prerogative. 
 
Secretary for the Treasury Jack Lew has suggested 17th October as the date when the current debt ceiling arrangements hit top.  It will be both prudent and necessary to raise it further, and in the current shutdown scenario in Washington the options are plain : Either the partial shutdown of the departments is swiftly lifted and government can function once again as normal, giving enough time for a bi-partisan consultation and agreement on a Debt Ceiling raise; alternatively, give the President the opportunity to exercise the Presidential Prerogative under the 14th Amendment and sign into law a figure he believes justified to safeguard the normal functioning of the government and the U.S. economy. 
 
The new jobs created figure today of 155,000 for September seems pretty healthy, although to see a fully fledged Recovery would need about 400,000 to 500,000 new jobs per month for about 6 months.  Until then, the environment demands continuation of a Stimulus, which may be tapered later when conditions improve further.  In the meantime, the record low interest rate gives hope that the housing market can continue to improve and strengthen, together with auto sales and hand-in-hand creation of many jobs and heatmaps of happiness.  Strength of the U.S. economy for now seems a barometer of the world economy, as confidence in the world's largest economy always impacts everywhere else.
 
In Japan, Premier Abe's government continues with their Stimulus, which was running at $85 billion a month (equal to the U.S. stimulus at its current height).  This has enabled the Japanese economy to pull out of the stagnation that has marred it for over 20 years; the investment and build-up after the Fukushima disaster has enabled Japan lay the foundation for continued improvement and growth, the fruits of which Japan shares with investment overseas in neighbouring countries and abroad.  Their GNP
figures will be nothing less than impressive, with substantial investments in the U.S. also.
 
It will be a great blessing for the U.S. to raise the debt ceiling in a timely fashion, and renew the confidence worldwide that things can continue as normal everywhere, which can add impetus to further growth worldwide from a strengthening Recovery to Prosperity.  For that I pray.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Period of Integration and Accomodative Policies

Posted on July 5, 2013 at 4:54 AM Comments comments (32)
It was fun listening to a talk by Tony Plummer, on the theories of the legendary American investor W.D. Gann, who is fabled to have made over $50 million dollars - a huge amount in the 1950s. 
 
Gann theory, which Mr Plummer has interpreted in his new book The Law of Vibration, suggests that there are four cycles : Shock, which the world saw in 2008, followed by Absorption of Shock, which is supposed to have ended in 2012, followed by Integration, which began in 2012/13 and is likely to take us all in 2015.
 
This period of Integration is typified by what has been confirmed by the new Bank of England Guvnor Mark Carney as well as the ECB Chairman Mario Draghi, that the banks will continue with an accommodative stance with regards to stimulus, i.e. the punch bowl will not be removed any time soon.
 
It would seem that that will indeed become the theme of the coming months and years, at all levels, personal, political, economic, cultural, national and international, according to my reading of the situation.  This is based on the rational trends that are in their infancy on the world stage. 
 
Look at the example of Turkey, where an all-inclusive accommodative stance has stabilised the situation there. 
 
Look at the situation in Egypt, where the military as guardians of the peoples' freedoms and economic well-being are supporting the new Interim President, who is a Chief Justice of many years standing and will follow policies which will benefit a wider democracy.  Here again, an accommodative stance by all people, including the Muslim Brotherhood supporters of Dr Mursi, will win the day, to ensure the smooth running of this great cultural nation, so that trading and tourism continues, and continues to provide the bread and butter which all people naturally need. 
 
In this period of Integration 2012/13 to 2015, an accommodative stance by central banks and political leaders will be the rational ways to continue worldwide economic Recovery, and God-willing peace prevails everywhere, which will then lead to a growing Prosperity. 
 
Please let me have your comments as usual.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
  

The huge APR moneylenders

Posted on June 27, 2013 at 2:38 PM Comments comments (2)
It seems the government is supposed to be doing something about curbing the big APR moneylenders, precisely what remains to be seen.
 
Just a look at some of the moneylenders' shop windows suggests some things that may as well be included in any future legislation. 
 
One shop says 'You can borrow upto £1,000'.  It does not give any rate of interest or any such indication.
 
Another, which used to display a rate of 2487%, does not display that rate any more.  But it urges borrowers to only borrow what they can afford to repay. 
 
A positive step would be for them to display the rate, and give a table of figures, giving say repayments for every £50 and £100 per month, so the borrowers are clear what it is going to cost.
 
I also note the Department of Work and Pensions is no longer offering Emergency Loans.  This may make the people in need turn to the loan sharks and suchlike....Something the government should be helping people avoid, that would be a people-friendly government, that serves the people.
 
The government could do well to teach basic budgeting and good housekeeping to people who are unemployed or ill, to help them prevent borrowing money which they could seldom afford to repay.
 
As for the people trying to live on a food allowance of £3 a day, that is £21 a week, and can buy a variety of good food, maybe walking to the supermarket twice a week and picking up fresh.  Bit of exercise as well.  And if you save £28 every four weeks, well, you'll be the richer every year. 
As the saying goes, pennies make pounds.  And the need won't arise to borrow from the sharks.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan
 
 
 

The magic of human chemistry.

Posted on June 23, 2013 at 4:50 PM Comments comments (4)
There is something about the chemistry, about the language and communication of the mind and soul, which brings people together or drives them apart.  It is this chemistry between people that I would blame for.....or, rather, a change in the chemistry between people that I would blame for separation and divorce. 
 
I am surprised that Napoleon Hill was not given the Noble Prize, but then again there is no category in the Noble Prizes into which his work fits.  Perhaps, on that point, I would suggest there should be another category created by the Trustees of the Noble Foundation.  The Increasing of Human Understanding.
 
Napoleon Hill interviewed 500 of the most successful people in America in the 1920s, and from those interviews he wrote many articles, published in his Hill's Success Magazine.  But a few people made a huge impression on him, viz Andrew Carnegie, Firestone, Henry Ford, Dr.Alexander Graham Bell, and Dr. Thomas Alva Edison.  And yes, Mr Edwin Barnes, who said it could not be done, that is to say, the writing of a blueprint for success based on the interviews with successful people.
 
Napoleon Hill turned that into a questions: Who said it could not be done? and went on to publish his Think and Grow Rich, a book that sells well throughout the world, in many languages, in number just after the sales of the Bible, Koran and Bhagavad-Gita and other religious masterpieces.
 
In his research, Napoleon Hill says that the first three years of a marriage often have petty squabbles and friction, but the love that exists between the two will carry it through.  The next fifteen years are those in which the lucky couple start to look alike in their eye movements and thinking, influencing their value judgements and expressions, meaning the happy couple have achieved understanding of one another, and a state of harmony exists between them that we attribute to the magic of chemistry.
A state of harmony, an instinctive understanding, an automatic understanding of mutual goals. It is like both have the same road-map, or at least complementing road maps.
 
Those for whom a partnership does not work, it seems are rather like a horse-drawn carriage where the horses want to pull in differing directions.  Where it is not possible to bring harmony of direction, abandonment of the journey becomes the alternative.  Such is what happens in business partnerships as well, and in politics as well.
 
A question that may help bring harmony back is : What was the road map that brought the partners together in the first place?  Can it be modified and restored?  If the answer is Yes, then hope still remains for reunion and success.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 

Isn't it time to help Mr Maponya build his city?

Posted on June 14, 2013 at 12:11 PM Comments comments (0)
It was over two years ago that I saw a TV programme about Mr Maponya, a South African businessman, nay, Statesman, who wants to build a city.  He has a vision, to put buildings and necessary infrastructure in the townships where you see huts at the moment.  This has a positive feel of aiding growth there.
 
How are they going to pay for it? How are they going to monetise it, I hear people ask. 
 
That is precisely where the growth will be, as people move upwards.  But they have to be helped with investment into such a project.  It would do the economy a huge power of good.
 
At the moment of course there is no social security system in South Africa, and consequently people know that the option is to work (as compared to grow your own or something else).  So if work is created to service the economy, which would expand with development and embourgeoisement of the people, able to utilise the developing new technology and also serving the people with provision of necessary jobs, factories, medical facilities, schools, and so on....Just like America was over a hundred years ago, most parts of Africa are today, ready for development and industrialisation.  The magic item missing is the finance. 
 
Often, I gather, there are shortages of power in South Africa, as the power is transmitted from Mozambique.  There must be potential to develop power in other methods, and utilise solar power, geothermal, hydroelectric, and so on.  Just it seems they need someone to finance such projects, and get the construction thereof under way. 
 
The great respect people have for Mr. Mandela, I hope can also be shown to the worthy Mr Maponya,
whose dream city would do, I believe, the whole country and continent of Africa a huge power of good.
Dreamers and believers, people who have faith and know that such things as I speak of are possible, will
know that this would be a worthwhile project, and it will have the blessings of creating a necessary prosperity for the people in this part of the world.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 

A Spirit Phone, Mr Edison?

Posted on June 10, 2013 at 4:08 PM Comments comments (5)
You have to appreciate how many times the name of the Wizard of Menlo Park comes up with so many inventions - the incandescent light bulb, the motion picture, the telephone.  Having found a means of supplying people with electricity, Edison also invented the meter so he could charge people for the supply thereof.
 
In 1920s, he said he was working on an apparatus to communicate with the people In the spirit world.
 
Just as we can communicate with our friends with the aid of a mobile phone, is it not possible to communicate with God or with the spirit world through something that is beyond such technology - the human spirit.  I would suggest a finely tuned human being is a spirit phone.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 

What of Turkey?

Posted on June 4, 2013 at 12:43 PM Comments comments (3)
There is an underlying assumption of stability and growing prosperity in the Turkish economy, which have kept overseas investors happy so far.  The recent demonstrations, and the somewhat heavy police handling of it in Ankara and Istanbul, have put some mild question-marks on that scenario.
The strikes are over the reduced paypackets people are taking home each month, of the sign that the Turkish economic growth is slowing down from healthy levels. 
 
This is partly due to the drop in productivity, people are not bothered to work so hard as before, and also on the changing culture of more and more people participating in the financial markets and making a living or side income from that in the midst of abundance visited by capital inflows from abroad.
Easier credit availability, which has added to dynamic growth.
 
Some people have also expressed the opinion that PM Erdogan wishes to keep the republic on strict religious lines.  An interpretation is that the Turkish people are happy to live as individuals rather than people subject to a lot of strictures, which can be cumbersome.  Followers of the Prophet Ali (cousin and son-in-law of Prophet Mohammed) can choose not to wear headgear, which is uncomfortable in the hot weather.  As Turkey prepares to join the European Union, the people would like to join Europe on an equal footing. 
 
The Prime Minister is on a tour of North Africa, which was arranged previously.  This suggests a full confidence in his office and in the delegation of duties to his Deputy PM Gul, who has made active effort to engage with his people and offered apologies for the heavy tactics of the police. 
 
Once the peoples' concerns are addressed, I believe the enterprising and dynamic Turkish people can continue to trade and make a good living and maintain their freedoms and emancipation.
I imagine PM Erdogan will listen to his people, and assure them of his approval of the trend of modernisation in culture. 
 
Lower Oil prices will help all nations, and Turkey has many friends in Opec who may influence this.
A high Oil price is a curse to all, a lower Oil price will bring a blessing to all as well.  For that, I pray.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.