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Honest Information, Profitable Trading

Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

My Blog

Blog

www.durudarshan.co.uk/blog

Posted on November 9, 2013 at 6:12 AM Comments comments ()
My thanks to the staff at these Search Engines for listing and indexing my website, and to Vistaprint for so beautifully hosting my website over last 28 months.  It has built from strength to strength, drawing many visitors each day. Thanks to all :
                        Stumbleupon
                        Google (the multi-trillion dollar brain)
                        Twitter  (tweet tweet to you)
                        LinkedIn (professional and so well defined)
                        j.mp
                        Yahoo (book readers love you)
                        Bing (looks like people like spy thrillers)
                        and, just for good measure, a few porno sites, harmless fun is okay I'd say.
 
My blogs being read overnight are as follows :
  -  The ECB's 25 basispoint cut
  -  Stephanie Ruhle, CNBC interviewer 
         (She's actually an anchor for Bloomberg, working in New York)
  -  This is time for buyers to support Bangladesh factories
          (American companies have done so, may blessings be unto them)
  -  Thomas Sugrue's review of The Last Great Prophet
  -  The Bank of America share price.
 
----------------------------------------------LIZZIE--------------------------------------------------------------
 
Yesterday I heard the news that China has experienced good growth and far from a hard-landing which people feared it is experiencing very sound growth, with PMI figures up and increasing. 
 
One commentator has stated that China has several trillion dollars of reserves for investment, so I imagine the worldwide boom can continue.  Today I heard that 80 percent of visas being taken for visits to Portugal are for Chinese property investors.  This way, all economies with an open-door policy to encouraging property ownership and immigration would benefit from the Chinese wherewithal to sustain growth and Recovery. 
 
If the Chinese sources are suggesting U.S. is looking for $561 Billion for next six months, it augers well for the U.S. that the jobs numbers were pretty good and growth potential is inherent in America, and it would be very probable that China would support such borrowings and support, as they have done in the recent past. 
 
The luxury sector may start to rebound in China, who continue to buy Rolls Royce cars and jets as never before, and with the refocus on domestic consumption and increasing exports from China, it is apparent that the Honourable Xi Jinping is inspiring policies that will help the Chinese people achieve higher standards of living. 
 
For stability and optimism into the near future, what more could the world wish for?
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Stimulus? Taper? Where we headed?

Posted on September 27, 2013 at 2:36 PM Comments comments ()
In his penultimate testimony recently, Federal Chief Ben Bernanke suggested that the QE measures had greatly helped the economy. 
 
The infusion of money did indeed stabilise the economy and create jobs on an on-going monthly basis, helping people buy autos and houses, and adding to consumer confidence in the U.S., which has become one of the fastest recovering nations post the 2008-crash. The QE measures introduced in August 2011 helped to propel the economy from a negative loss of confidence to a positive full of hope and promise and enterprise culture.  The QE measures helped to finance the government departments as well as the social net, and has got some of the pick-and-shovel jobs under way, although not as many as may have been envisaged. 
 
Secretary for the Treasury Jack Lew is characterised as pleading for action on the issue of the debt ceiling, but of course this issue cannot have escaped anyone's attention.  A logical time for resolution of this issue in somewhere mid to end October, when Mr Bernanke may be stepping down, having served his nation in a most admirable way.
 
The $40 billion a month stimulus under the first QE measure must have clocked up a trillion just after two years and one month.  The additional stimulus of $45 billion a month in buying of mortgage-backed securities has been in place for nearly a year, and that tots up another half trillion or so.  All told, the authorised stimulus which was the debt ceiling was around $1.45 trillion, plus a further $700 billion from banks and private or public concerns.  The money has swirled in the system and created much happiness for so many people, and sustained livelihoods and restored confidence, not only in the USA, but around the world.  The dark days were when diamond merchants in India were standing idle, because American men had stopped buying diamond rings for their fiancées.  The whole supply chain from South Africa to Antwerp to Tel Aviv felt the effect.  Thankfully, those days are gone, and we all have to thank the return to confidence that has enabled consumers believe in a good life and live with hope.  When people have received loans and mortgages, their purpose has been filled with joy.  May that continue for the foreseeable future, as hard work and enterprise turn into wealth, going round and serving more.  A growing circle of enterprise and industry in each nation has given added confidence to increased trade as well as growth at home.  When the global locomotive of growth drives along, it is music to the ears of people everywhere, be it China, India, the Middle East, Africa, or South America, not to forget Japan and Australia.  Growth and enterprise is good for the world, as each nation trades their unique resources, creating work and purpose, confidence and enterprise.   
 
The cash-flow that the stimulus measures provided have been a great blessing, creating many jobs, creating many livelihoods, helping many families survive and recover from the savage recession that beset the world, and with the creation of activity, opening of factories and workshops, improving purchase of goods both utilitarian and luxury, improved number of travellers and visitors globally, it seems the economies are set for further growth to Prosperity. 
 
Secretary of Treasury Jack Lew and colleagues will know what measures are necessary.  President Obama and House Speaker Boehner will ascertain what is necessary and prudent for continuation of the economic Recovery.  Positive developments on this with bi-partisan co-operation will herald the path to Prosperity.  Trusting in good judgement, no one should have concern. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

The world is swimming in money.....!

Posted on June 25, 2013 at 6:56 AM Comments comments ()
According to Reg Varney, the Fox news commentator, the world's central banks collectively have pumped in some Fifteen Trillion Dollars into the economies over the last few years.  This is a hugely interesting figure...it should suggest the world is swimming in money, and not in need of further stimulus at all at all...
 
So far as publicly available figures indicate, the U.S. raised its Debt Ceiling by $2.15 Trillion Dollars on 3rd August 2011, and thereafter via QE 2 and  QE 3 by a further $85 Billion a month, which has been trimmed by 1/12 since February 2013 since the Sequestration cuts kicked in. 
 
In the United Kingdom, some £375 Billion of Credit Easing facilities have been introduced by the Bank of England, all told, till currently.
 
I wonder which other central banks have printed that gigantic amount of cash and released it into the system. 
 
The current figures from Russia indicate a slow-down there, with GDP figures progressively being downwards, mainly due to lowering Oil prices on which the economy relies so heavily.  Oil prices in the global context are of course likely to head down further, if recession is to be avoided once again.
The current oil stockpiles in the Middle East and the Strategic Oil Reserves would corroborate this scenario, and it can only help the oil exporting nations to keep the oil price low for some time till economies can pick up again. 
 
To avert a slow-down at home which would impact the world, I believe the BRICS nations, with the exception of China, should consider a generous cut in the benchmark interest rate. I would suggest, that is the silver bullet, and they ought to utilise it.
 
China under the Rising Star of Chairman Xi is bound to do well and he likes progress and prosperity for his people; however, they are unlikely to keep on manufacturing goods cheaply and ship them out to the rest of the world, and on credit at that.  A greater demand and consumerism in China itself is likely, and a re-focus is probably causing the current mild hiccup.  It is a matter of record that when Honourable Xi was a rising star in his party, his comments and suggestions created a boom.  I cannot believe that now he is in charge, anything but the best will be possible for China. 
 
With increased trade between nations, and extension of credit facilities and investment into one another's cultures, a great hope of continuation of the world economic Recovery is always bright.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Namaste, Indore!

Posted on May 24, 2013 at 4:36 AM Comments comments ()
As the weather shoots up another 5 degrees in most parts of India, including the normally cooler hills, there is a drought in the state of Maharashtra.  The water wells are empty, and water is being brought in by tankers, which move along and inefficiently distribute the precious water, spilling some of it as the tanker moves along,  one pewter container per person.
 
The drought is all no thanks to the sugar cane industry, which drinks up most of the irrigated water.  There are handsome subsidies in the sugar cane industry, and more acres are earmarked for further plantation of this crop.  The sugar factory bosses are happy, and the regional government ministers have to get their favour.  But it seems absurd as the drought is likely to drive people away from parts of Maharashtra, and the overfill of treasury to the sugar bosses will bring poverty to the rest of the region.
That is something which is best faced up to and averted before it becomes glaringly obvious. 
 
Sugar could be imported quite economically from regions of Africa where there is plenty of land and water, such as Uganda, where the Indian Madhvani family have the biggest sugar mill.
 
In Pune, normally a cool area compared to other parts of Maharashtra, temperatures have soared up to 45 degrees centigrade, and there seems just about enough water to wash the face and brush teeth with a glass of water.  This is in stark contrast to how it used to be, when people could take a comfortable bath.  The CM of Maharashtra and his cabinet must rethink on this policy of allowing more sugar cane plantation, to ensure the economy doesn't become unbalanced.  I hope they will listen to this as constructive criticism, as I have stayed in Pune and have many relatives there.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

From 2008 to Recovery

Posted on May 13, 2013 at 4:09 AM Comments comments ()
The 2008 banking crisis and the collapse that followed could be summed up in a few vignettes:
 
The two major banks in Iceland, who had invested in two entrepreneurs who were buying up British retailers on the High Streets of Britain, went belly up, leading their Finance Minister to remark some time later that "perhaps we should go back to fishing".  The size of the hole was £61 Billion, many times the GDP of that nation.
 
Then came the blow up of the boiler houses like Bear Stearns and Lehmann Bros, whose chairman Mr Fuld had readied an exit strategy of taking a golden parachute of $300 million, totally oblivious to the small investors in India and Brazil and other places bereft of their investments of lifetime savings.
 
The stockmarkets at that time plunged hundreds of points.
 
The next initiative in the Recovery process was the meetings of the G7, then the G20, of discussions of ideas on how to climb out of the mess.  A new infusion of approximately $1.5 Trillion was put into the U.S. and  European economies, in emergency measures, and slowly, steadily some semblance of normality started to materialise.
 
Since then, the U.S. has put in a very necessary and prudent stimulus in the form of quantitative easing (QE I, II or III) and likewise the British economy has been blessed with measure of £375 Billion.  Currently the Bank of Japan is infusing $85 Billion per month, equalling that of the U.S., who have somehow put in a sequestration of one-twelfth of that, to reduce $85Billion over a year.
 
Still, there is plenty of money in the system.  The British banks like HSBC and Barclays are said to be flush with cash.  The stockmarkets worldwide look in a healthy shape, including Kenya and Ghana in the developing nations. 
 
This current week the markets will take a breather, as not much detail is available as to what the G7 and IMF M.D. Christine Lagarde have come up with from their recent meeting in Buckinghamshire.
While there is talk of the stimulus in U.S. being tapered off, the new U.S. Treasury Secretary seems to be calling for a resolution of the Debt Ceiling issue before Labour Day. 
 
Banks seem in robust shape currently, and risk appetite is growing, a good bullish sign in which it is hoped the banks will take courage and loan to small family businesses and young entrepreneurs, and help them transform that mountain of readies into wealth in the long term, creating sustainance for the people and taxes for the nations, and much happiness for all.  When people start to practice the law of generosity and become well-wishers to one and all, everyone will prosper.  For that I pray.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Invest in a house, buy some gold ornaments....

Posted on April 30, 2013 at 3:49 PM Comments comments ()
A friend of mine from India was asking my opinion about the price of gold. His sister is getting married in about eight months, should they buy some ornaments now? 
 
Well, already the price is up nearly $120 per oz after the steep price decline recently, so I guess it will trade in a price channel i.e. hit a top and then retrace.  So I suggested to my friend that a buying opportunity could be in the future.
 
However, the couple or their parents should consider buying their own house, I suggested.  That is a good investment, long term, a roof over the head and pride of ownership, better then renting, wherever the figures work out in favour. 
 
On that note, I reckon house prices seem very attractive in Spain as well as in the English shires.  Parts of rural India are also very good, for those who can live in the 30-40 degree heat during May to September. 
 
The U.S. housing market has started to pick up, and that is a good sign for the strength of the economy.  I surmise the job figures this month will be something to write about.  Anyway, for the individuals and families, it is a great idea to buy a house or apartment  at the record low rates.  If there is job security, and more jobs are created, that would be fun.  I hope the money masters can issue mortgages to people so that they can buy the houses, ultimately that will underpin the whole market and give strength and stability to the whole economy.  Not to mention the happiness people have in having a house of their own. 
 
I believe China will see improved growth this year, so for the world picture to balance, Oil needs to be a little bit cheaper. 
 
As the Dreamliner once again takes to the air in June, I expect a happy world picture.  As I say, Oil needs to be cheaper, and that will help sustain growth in the oil exporting nations also.
 
How do I feel so optimistic?  Well, I was looking through Bob Proctor's book, You Were Born Rich.
Bob Proctor, like Ron G. Holland, inspires confidence in the future.
 
May God's blessings and happiness be with you.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

India's 14th 5year Budget

Posted on February 28, 2013 at 4:57 AM Comments comments ()
Both the Sensex and Nifty have drifted downwards, at the Budget announced by Finance Minister Chidambaram, which allocates increased expenditure by 19 percent to 2014, with a good measure for defense spending as well as additional provisions for Food Secuirty as well as additional provisions for Mid day meals. 
 
It is a Budget that has at least averted the sovereign debt downgrade, although such a downgrade would have been questionable in view of the fact that the debt to GDP is a golden 5.3 percent, making India worthy of a Golden AAA rating, in my view.
 
The good news for the middle class is that for first time buyers, there is a tax rebate of upto 1 lakh on house purchases upto 25 lakhs.  This will put more people on the ladder to house ownership, and provided the economy remains robust, should give a boost to the housing sector.  Demand for housing is of course at a high.  In this regard, a favourable proposal to create a Women's Bank is an Indian first, which will empower women entrepreneurs, and will certainly be the segment to invest in, as women's prudence, thrift and enterprise is a legend.  So, well done to the authorities for creating this dedicated segment for women's empowerment.
 
Cigerettes, liquor, imported cars, bikes and mobile (cell) phones above 2,000 Rupees are going to incur additional taxation, and those who eat in the more UMC air-conditioned restaurants are also likely to pay additional taxes.  There will be a surchage of 10 percent on incomes over 1 Crore, and those lucky people will have to fork that out for only one year.  Imported cars will become kudos, attracting additional taxation, but those who can afford will not be put off from purchasing such luxuries.
 
It seems a good sensible Budget, although the opposition have called it dull, boring and unimaginative.  Indeed the Chief Minister of Uttrakhand says it is a budget that is anti-poor. and makes no or scant provision for the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes.  It is apparent that the government will have to focus on this segment, and ensure that in a spirit of equality and inclusion, some extraordinary provisions are to be made for these segments, to propel improvements for all, starting from the lowest upwards.
 
A nineteen percent increase in expenditure over the next year leading to the 2014 election will ensure a renewed growth, and if fairly implemented, this Budget will definitely lift the doom and gloom that has so far weighed on the Indian markets.  This is a great positive Budget for growth, and the Finance Minister deserves congratulations.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

Children dying of measles in Larkana, Sindh

Posted on January 2, 2013 at 4:48 PM Comments comments ()
Developments in medicine have rendered diseases like measles preventable or curable, but lack of money still claims many a life.  In the last year, 300 children or so have died in Larkana, Sindh, due to lack of basic medical care for measles, which seems to take away children, especially between 9 months and 12 years of age.
 
I watched this news story on Al Jazzera on this day in the New Year.  I was especially shocked to see this abject poverty, in a place which during the British Raj was said to be one of the richest places in the world, the Sindh Province.  But such are the vagaries of time and changes in the economic circumstances. 
 
The poor farmers' families were seated in the hospital dormitory, twelve familes to one big hospital room.  There was a rusted canister containing oxygen, which is shared by four children.  Medical supplies are limited.  The hospital infrastructure looks like it hasn't been upgraded for a quarter century.  These stoic people of Sindh would feel shame to appeal for help, but I am writing this so it may reach people who would be able to help.
 
A young boy is having oxygen fed into one nosetril.  His father, Mousa, earns $3 a day, but has spent all his savings over last 6 months trying to save his child.
 
A programme of vaccination would be good, but that is only possible in the developed countries, I suppose. 
 
Hopefully, there is time to draw the world's attention to this humanitarian need.
 
Who can help?  I am sure there are genereous readers who can organise something to help these people of Larkana, be it medical or monetary or bringing this to the attention of someone who can.
 
Thank you.
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

25 Years after they became Rich

Posted on December 14, 2012 at 6:12 AM Comments comments ()
It is almost a sermon for the times that may be surmised from the reading of two books.
 
There is a chapter in Think and Grow Rich, which tells of a fabulous party at a hotel where eight of the richest and most influential men of those days are assembled.  They transact business deals that make them even richer.
 
You Were Born Rich picks up the thread of the story 25 years later.  Some of these multi-billionaires have died in poverty,  others ended their own lives. 
 
What was motivating and inspiring in one book gives pause for thought in the second.  Not that there is anything wrong in accumulating wealth, but some of these people had overlooked one law of life.
 
According to Bob Proctor, who is a great inspirational writer, such a law is to love humanity, not wealth.  The reversal of that law creates misery. 
 
Surmise what you will from the above, be happy and stay rich, for you were born rich.  So long as money keeps circulating in the system, and doesn't sit there "in a jar", everything should be okay, for not only is humanity born rich, we all are the spiritual wealth of God.
 
As Christmas nears, do as the Good Lord would have us do, and show your kindness to the world.
 
Wish you all a Merry Christmas.
 
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Inspiration from a church in Pasadena

Posted on November 11, 2012 at 12:29 PM Comments comments ()
Last Sunday, I was in Pasadena.   Normally in England, I go to my church here in Ilford, so I took a stroll to the local church, the Church of Christ Jesus, Scientist.
 
This is a great church, started with the work of Mrs Mary Baker Eddy, whose story is worth reading as an inspiration of a woman who found courage and inspiration in the works of Christ, and was inspired to write Science and Health with a Key to the Scriptures.  I have read that book, and benefited from improved health and improved outlook. 
 
The church building in Pasadena is beautiful, with an inscription from Christ :
     "If you believeth on me, you shall do great things;
       you shall do greater things than me;
        for I go on my Father"
 
I thought of the parable of Christ, where He turns two fish into five hundred, and provides water for the many.
 
It occured to me, that that is the same as a man who spends 500 at a club but could instead distribute a dollar each to many, people who are obviously in need. 
 
A few days later, on a bridge in a mall in Las Vegas, I had the good fortune to buy a bottle of water for a dollar.  This bottle retails for 99 cents in the cheapest store.  This was a great spirit, selling water to the thirsty, doing good deeds.  As I turned, I realised, that she was the same good spirit I had bought water from in the Ajanta and Ellora caves in India about eight years ago.  Once again, I realised, this is the good spirit that has come to bless me, and others who drink from her.
 
I wish you a happy Sunday, and may you give generously to those in need.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

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