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Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

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Positive actions would make everything good

Posted on October 29, 2013 at 7:08 AM Comments comments (11)
Following in the math of the sequestration cuts, followed by uncertainity about the U.S. Debt Ceiling raise, and the unwanted shutdown and furloughs, it seems apparent that confidence has taken a bit of a knock, especially with regards to the United States economy, but obviously timely positive action would restore that. 
 
The news that Ms Janet Yellen was nominated by Mr Obama to the chair of the Federal Reserve was actually happy news to the markets, welcoming this dove of the financial system, assured that the punchbowl would be replenished and the taper would be quite some time away now. 
 
Once that nomination is confirmed by one and all, that would send the right signal and boost the confidence that the economy needs right now, in view of the temporary fix of the nation's capacity to continue funding itself until only 15th January 2014. 
 
Around that time Chairman Ben Bernanke steps down, and willing bi-partisan co-operation to extend
the reserve balance capacity and support Ms Yellen in her post will ensure great and much needed stability to the world financial system, and not only to that of the United States.
 
The housing numbers yesterday were obviously disappointing, indicating a shake in the confidence of house buyers.  That is but natural, in view of the uncertainity created by the last-moment and then only such a short temporary fix of the situation. 
 
When I was in California and Las Vegas last year, October and November, I met lots of people and heard their stories about how hopeful they are, and how they are happy working hard, to buy their first house and know things are okay with their economy.  These were people who are taxi-drivers, concierges, receptionists, cleaners, waiters, waiteresses, a scientist working for an oil major, people who had made America their home, and who were sharing in the American dream.
 
It can obviously help the well-being of the nation if normal lending practices continue, where the individual man or woman and families are encouraged to buy their own houses, with the confidence in the system that things will continue positively, so they can believe in the virtue of borrowing and investing for the future. 
 
The oil price on both sides of the Atlantic is so high, and hopefully needs to be around the $85 mark to encourage normal growth in the economies outside the G20 nations.  Their depleted reserves and devalued currencies vis a vis the major currencies don't give them a chance.  A dose of kindness now would greatly assist growth throughout the world, which would bring great mutual benefits to all nations.  When we eat the food that we can so easily buy which has been exported from some country, we must spare a thought for the people there, who may not be able to afford such items in their own countries.  When I wear my beautifully stitched shirt, my heart sends blessings to the factory workers in Bangladesh.  It was heartening news to hear of American companies giving them continued support and helping them make the textile industry safe for workers. 
 
With such friendship and trade between nations, each cog will help turn the small wheel which in turn will drive the greater wheel, and the path to continued economic Recovery, and yes, ultimately a growing Prosperity for all, shall continue.  For that I pray.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 
 

How is the economic Recovery likely to continue?

Posted on October 28, 2013 at 8:34 AM Comments comments (101)
It has taken all of five years for the world economies to be restored to semblance of normality from the dark days of 2008.
 
Remember those days when the interest rates were quite high in the advanced economies, anything from 4 to 7 percent - and that for the benchmark European Central Bank, Federal Reserve and Bank of England rate. 
 
The crisis created by the collapse of Lehmann Bros sent shockwaves throughout the financial system worldwide, with stockmarkets tumbling, loss of confidence in trade, fall in house prices, and a mood of pessimism gripped the world. 
 
At the vortex of the crisis, when Oil price reached $147 per barrel, according to OPEC AND European Union figures, about $250 billion additional bills were imposed on the European Union's oil expenditure, and what a terrible crisis it created, making transportation and manufacturing unviable in many countries, e.g. Portugal, Spain, Greece, the extra drain sucking the life-force out of the system. 
At the peak of the crisis, people who were earlier working in the textile industry were suddenly without work, and wondering how they would find their cod-and-chips.  Enterprising young people and old were trying their hand at the e-commerce economy, and finding lot of work but little revenue.  The Prime Minister of a sovereign nation which was so prosperous not so long ago was visiting the heads of state of various nations, asking for help.  The social security systems were severally stretched, the tax revenues not corresponding to the new outflows.  The interest on the bonds became quite high, to attract investors.  Talented people from universities were not able to find opportunities to make a living. 
Demand on housing was as high as ever, but people didn't have money to rent, nor were banks willing to extend mortgages.  Indeed, banks and loan corporations were suddenly unviable, after the property price plunge and bankruptcies of many individuals. 
 
Today, comparatively, there has been a return of confidence.  Things are getting better.  Spain, Portugal and Greece have seen their bonds become more attractive to international investors.
But the worst is hardly behind us, yet the oil price remains so high.  The pending closure of the Grangemouth Refinery is an indicator of the havoc the oil price plays with the balance sheet of such businesses.  A business that was viable up until recently today stands in need of £300 million, with that it would support 800 jobs until trade is more favourable.  This may be a microcosmic illustration of what could be in store for the OPEC nations, unless they decide to reduce the oil price to a level that is affordable to the rest of the world, and would give the OPEC nations an on-going stable income on a long-term basis into the future, and allow the world to breathe, and help sustain Recovery. 
 
It took two-and-a-half years after the high oil price knocked the economies for six for a return to some kind of normal business activity.  Common sense tells me that the high price today will probably hamper growth for about a year-and-a-half, and it is already restricting growth and causing hardships in many places, e.g. Yemn, Kenya, India, and almost all the nations outside the G20. 
I WOULD RESPECTFULLY SUGGEST THAT THE OIL PRICE NEEDS TO BE BELOW $85  A BARREL.
 
That would help the hard-pressed developing nations meet their bills from their depleted reserves or devalued currencies, and enabling continuation of trade with the U.S., China, European Union, Israel and indeed OPEC, which would create a dynamic of mutual co-operation and support that may help all nations thrive and develop all their potential.  That is the missing piece of the jigsaw in the picture of a continuation of the worldwide economic Recovery. 
 
All the listening hearts of the world know what I am saying, and those who sit in positions of influence will do what is necessary, for that I pray.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

Light a candle....

Posted on September 24, 2013 at 5:10 AM Comments comments (1)
The economic news seems pretty positive all round, for continued worldwide economic Recovery.  India of course is out of sync on the benchmark interest rate, but it is a dynamic economy where the leadership are a little bit too cautious to accelerate growth.  For the moment it seems it will just motor along steadily, and blaming the high inflation on the scarcity of onions, which they are plentifully exporting.
 
The Greek economy seems to be on the mend, with a secondary surplus expected. With a nation with a population of 20 million and a large area, perhaps they need to encourage people who enjoy farming.  The potential must be huge with good climate, abundance of water and good weather as well. 
 
The situation in Spain seems pretty positive too, with a growth of 0.2 percent expected for the second quarter.  The benefits of creating jobs and filling up the empty housing, additionally with putting more buses on the roads to service secluded areas more frequently, will surely add to the growth.  Blessed with good weather and friendly people, I believe there is huge potential for continued growth in Spain.
A Latin version of Hollywood and Bollywood must surely be a possibility, with intercontinental co-productions?
 
Germany, well the situation seems so good, with Mme Angela Merkel back in the driving seat.
 
As regards the U.S., the talk of taper seems both promising and cautionary.  As Treasury Minister Jack Lew has suggested, the Debt Ceiling issue needs addressing quite soon.  The talk to me seems like a tapered candle, or a washer to be tapered on a lathe...I suppose Mr Bernanke will suggested what will need to be done.  The debt ceiling fix of a $1.45 Trillion in August 2011 was a job well done, adding to the money supply and creating the cash flow that has translated into so many jobs, a pick up in the housing market, and continued growth in the US economy, creating heatmaps of happiness for so many more people.  The stockmarkets and the banks seem in robust health, creating a huge pool of capital that will service the needs of people as and when they need to borrow and spend.  Cash rich companies like Apple attest to that fact. 
 
What would be great would be perhaps the creation of 500,000 jobs per month on a costing of $7 billion per month.  If that much additional capital was infused into the system by way of the taper, that would be just great.  Five years after the collapse of October 2008, the economic systems seem in much better shape, with strong financial institutions and safeguards in place.  A steady worldwide Economic Recovery seems to have been achieved, through co-operation and understanding of nations and the grace of God.  In celebration and to continue with Recovery, the world counts on seeing the Republicans and the Democrats in Washington support a cordial agreement, and light a new candle to Prosperity.
 
Ladies and gentlemen, you may step up to the alter, and light the candle that will add substance to the drams of humanity.
 
Amen.
 
(written by Duru-darshan)
 

Thanks for visiting my website.

Posted on September 21, 2013 at 6:09 AM Comments comments (5)
Thanks for visiting my website and reading my blog.  I hope you found something interesting.
 
Life is fun, with demands on time in so many directions.
 
Thursday I went to the Community Centre in Cricklewood.  Every Full Moon, they do prayers to Satnarayan Swami and Mata Laxmi.  It is a tradition we Sindhis have followed for generations, to pray to God and Goddess to give us peace in the household, and prosperity in our business affairs.
 
Later I visited the Southbank Centre, attracted there by the exhibition of her Picasso like painting by
Sangeeta Roshni Babani (she is an inspired painter from Mumbai, and she's Sindhi too, so I thought I'll
pay there a visit).
 
Sangeeta hadn't obtained her visa, and therefore could not be there.  Other artists from India exhibited
their creations alongside a few of Sangeeta's paintings. 
 
Particularly I liked a table whose top opens in segments like a fan, and this is adorned by mirrors.
This is by Yamin Mohiuddin from Hyderabad.  I can see such a piece adorning some young one's bedroom or even a hairdressing salon.  It would look good in a media company's foyer. 
 
If you like genuine teak furniture, like a chair crafted like black petals, or a palm made of teak, and don't mind paying about £800 for such items, Firdos Furnishers of Nagpur have several pieces on display.
 
An English idea that seemed to catch everyone's eye was Gerrad the Second.  This is a folding dog that looks like an inspired work of origami, with 188 sections to unfold and paste together very very carefully with Uhu glue.  The small ones sell for £20, and are limited editions of 500.  Fair enough.  They have decorative prints of dollar notes, piping, mascots, newspaper cuttings and so on, like industry or sector or indeed national mascots.The large ones, including one made of black wool decorated with harlequin squares, well, those will become collector's items, starting in an auction in 2014 at £1,000.  Absolutely grand.  Made by Liam from Liverpool.
 
 #####################################sangeeta############################################
 
Today I missed going to the Millionaire Mentors Bootcamp at the Hilton, London Bridge.  There is a free general entrace, generously hosted by Raymond Aaron, the bestselling author.  Problem is, it starts at 9 am on Saturday and Sunday.  Just a bit too early to travel up there for me;  otherwise it seems an event worth attending.  Finishes at 6pm both days.  Bootcamp to give you quick fire ideas how to boot up your ideas and send them skyrocketing.
 
 
I am sure someone can suggest ideas to make my website and blog into a money minting machine.  Well, hold my hand and show me the way. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.

Germany a good model of employment

Posted on September 13, 2013 at 10:04 AM Comments comments (6)
It is good news in Europe, with purchasing managers indexes up and house prices up in United Kingdom.  The unemployment rate edging downwards to 7.7 percent from 7.8 previously does not cause concern about the interest rate in the near term.  The Bank of England's benchmark rate can remain at the record low 0.5 percent for the foreseeable future, perhaps another three years, until unemployment falls to 7 percent, which is the peg  Governor Mark Carney has indicated.
 
But suppose, just suppose, employment in Britain were to pick up, perhaps using the German model of creating jobs?  There, according to Euronews, the unemployment has fallen to 5.5 percent, mainly helped by creating what are called Mini Jobs.  These are jobs taken by newcomers and students, perhaps earning a few hundred Euros a month for a part time job, or a Mini Job.  There is no contract, no holiday pay, let alone anything towards a pension.  It has no minimum wage.  The rate is fixed between the employer and employee, and lasts as long as there is work, without any guarantee. 
This seems a smart way of creating jobs, and enabling people earn something.  It is an idea that could be copied in other countries, labour laws permitting.  
 
It seems a good way forward to beat the dole ques, and get peoples morale up.  This could eventually help balance the national books.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Good morning, everybody.

Posted on August 14, 2013 at 5:55 AM Comments comments (5)
I note my readers searching for Divine Supplements in Goodmayes.
The address is 855 High Road, Goodmayes, Ilford, IG3 9UZ, not far from Tesco, with ample car parking.
Telephone number is 0208 590 7900.  Shop is open only on Wednesdays and Saturdays, 10 am to 4 pm.
Other days by appointment. 
Mr Wilson there is one of the best masseurs, especially for Frozen Shoulder.
People over 75 years of age can get first massage free.
 
--------------------------------
Missingx.com  is a good website to track anything that passengers may have forgotten on British Airways planes.
 
--------------------------------
 
Anyone wanting to check my professional details could do well to check the volumes at public libraries,
or online, of : Marquis' Who's Who of the World (who have listed me since 1996) and
Stanford Who's Who (where I am listed since November 2011).  Look up Durudarshan H. Dadlani.
My e-mail is : [email protected]
mobile : 07505 830518
 
---------------------------------
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan
 
 
 
 

Right selection, with confidence, will restore Prosperity

Posted on July 26, 2013 at 8:40 AM Comments comments (1)
Yesterday I passed a beautiful shop, Nails of Promise, in Gants Hill, Ilford.
 
Previously, I had been to view this shop, when it was lying empty.  At that time, somebody had just stopped trading there as a Training Provider .  The empty premises were naturally depressive.
The figures didn't stack up for me and a partner for a venture we had in mind.
 
But yesterday when I saw the shop, I was really impressed.  The proprietor, Tony Fox, who is from Brazil, has turned the shop into a beautiful salon, specialising in doing nails.  Now that is a service people like, and most ladies are prepared to pay the charges for beautification.  Ton told me he has a full book, busy every day, and has to turn customers away until he adds a trainee in the very near future.  "Most young people don't realize that the first thing in a business is customer service : how to attend customers and attend to their needs.  And training obviously takes time and attention."
 
He took the empty shell of a shop and has done it up beautifully, with an ivory white laminate floor, complementing walls, lights and mirrors, ceramic desks, swivel chairs, sofas, table lamps and a slim chandelier. You can well imagine what sort of figure conscious customers come in here.
 
He did all the interior decorating himself, with a budget of about thirty thousand pounds.  It's taken courage and confidence to create this salon, but it is doing well, and will grow in the near future.
 
In this location, most other businesses would not have survived, because there are other competing establishments not far away.  But a Nail Salon, great promise.  I draw the lesson from this that the right choice of business (or even a political candidate), backed with promise, will restore Prosperity. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 

Detroit filed for Chapter 9 bankruptcy.

Posted on July 19, 2013 at 10:39 AM Comments comments (5)
Mismanagement and corruption are two words that some reports on TV seem to suggest as possible causes of the neglect and decline of Detroit, leading today to a quickie filing of Bankruptcy.
A sad state for any community, sadder still when it has the towering GM headquarters building there.
There was a time when kids the world over associated the name Detroit with motor car production, or simply with great looking motors, the sort of cars we all wished to drive one day.  What happened to those beautiful Chevvys and Corvettes, those beautiful cars?  What happened to the whole car manufacturing industry?  What happened to the people who worked there, what happened to the houses, lying today in their tens of thousands, abandoned, neglected, derelict?
 
It seems a debt burden of $20 billion, which the municipality today cannot repay, and a neglect over a couple of decades has led today to this sad bankruptcy.
 
A programme of regeneration must materialise, surely, to put Detroit back on its feet, perhaps even put Detroit back in peoples' affections. 
 
It would definitely take the will of government to put some money into this economy, and the vision of enlightened entrepreneurs, who could probably see Detroit as a great opportunity to rebuild.  Money plus the vision of someone (I know such a person is there, but I shall not pre-empt by banding a name, although if you look in the top 100 entrepreneurs in America, you will probably see who fits the bill) will put the life back into Detroit. 
 
When houses became habitable, the people become hospitable, when a New Industry settles in Detroit, wealth will be created, wealth will grow, and life will be breathed into this neglected town.  Hope springs eternal in the human heart, that I do believe, as do the guys playing netball in the streets there.
For the regeneration of Detroit, I pray. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Wear a silly hat and drink a pinta milk a day

Posted on July 6, 2013 at 4:30 AM Comments comments (2)
What else?  It is wisdom from Wal-Mart chairman to wear a silly hat to lighten things up.  A light mood, some light music as well, lightens up the atmosphere and makes people optimistic and believe in the future, as everyone should.  If people learn from the past, live in the present, and look forward to the future with hope and rosy expectations, why, isn't it possible that that is precisely what we can bring into being? 
 
Bob Proctor in his book, You Were Born Rich, says that an acorn has a blueprint to grow into an oak tree.  When the acorn seed is planted, it develops roots and drinks up water (rather like a businessman drinks up the necessary knowledge to grow his business as he goes along).  Then, when it shows its head above ground, all the necessary energy that allows it to grow into an oak tree comes to it.  That is the natural law of attraction. 
 
Milk is plentiful in some parts of the world, but people don't seem to buy as much milk as they used to before, because it has gone up a few pence in price.  Compared to most other things, this nutritious and delicious drink is still one of the cheapest drinks available, and so wholesome.  I don't see why some supermarkets in England charge £1.50 for 4 pints when the corner shop charges £1.10 or £1.20 while other supermarkets charge a £1.00 - for the same size.  Couldn't they all try for some medium price, like £1.20 or £1.25, then all farmers, suppliers and distributors can make a fair living?  The Drink a Pinta Milk a Day poster campaign of the 1970s/80s is something I remember, and I was often encouraged to buy a pint and drink it with a straw at the corner shops.  What a delight!
 
So, as humanity and all living creatures (who humanity looks after) were born rich, it would be a sign of faith to believe in a bright future and yes, wear a silly hat and sing a song, and get some straws out and drink some milk or cream.
 
Wish you a happy Saturday and weekend.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

The magic of human chemistry.

Posted on June 23, 2013 at 4:50 PM Comments comments (4)
There is something about the chemistry, about the language and communication of the mind and soul, which brings people together or drives them apart.  It is this chemistry between people that I would blame for.....or, rather, a change in the chemistry between people that I would blame for separation and divorce. 
 
I am surprised that Napoleon Hill was not given the Noble Prize, but then again there is no category in the Noble Prizes into which his work fits.  Perhaps, on that point, I would suggest there should be another category created by the Trustees of the Noble Foundation.  The Increasing of Human Understanding.
 
Napoleon Hill interviewed 500 of the most successful people in America in the 1920s, and from those interviews he wrote many articles, published in his Hill's Success Magazine.  But a few people made a huge impression on him, viz Andrew Carnegie, Firestone, Henry Ford, Dr.Alexander Graham Bell, and Dr. Thomas Alva Edison.  And yes, Mr Edwin Barnes, who said it could not be done, that is to say, the writing of a blueprint for success based on the interviews with successful people.
 
Napoleon Hill turned that into a questions: Who said it could not be done? and went on to publish his Think and Grow Rich, a book that sells well throughout the world, in many languages, in number just after the sales of the Bible, Koran and Bhagavad-Gita and other religious masterpieces.
 
In his research, Napoleon Hill says that the first three years of a marriage often have petty squabbles and friction, but the love that exists between the two will carry it through.  The next fifteen years are those in which the lucky couple start to look alike in their eye movements and thinking, influencing their value judgements and expressions, meaning the happy couple have achieved understanding of one another, and a state of harmony exists between them that we attribute to the magic of chemistry.
A state of harmony, an instinctive understanding, an automatic understanding of mutual goals. It is like both have the same road-map, or at least complementing road maps.
 
Those for whom a partnership does not work, it seems are rather like a horse-drawn carriage where the horses want to pull in differing directions.  Where it is not possible to bring harmony of direction, abandonment of the journey becomes the alternative.  Such is what happens in business partnerships as well, and in politics as well.
 
A question that may help bring harmony back is : What was the road map that brought the partners together in the first place?  Can it be modified and restored?  If the answer is Yes, then hope still remains for reunion and success.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.