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Honest Information, Profitable Trading

Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

My Blog

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How stimulating!

Posted on March 7, 2013 at 4:30 AM Comments comments ()
Cup of herbal tea, a little square of chocolate....?  Perhaps a cup of decaf, smooth as milk?
 
Today is Thursday, when the Bank of England and the ECB will issue some statements regarding
the interest rates (which are already at an all-time low) or other measures to stimulate the economies
in Europe.
 
After the recent aggregate £375 Billion pumped into the U.K. economy, Sir Mervyn King has to ponder the question of whether another £50 Billion stimulus would be prudent and necessary.  Are the MPC allowed to open their minds to him? 
 
If I had the privilege of sitting on the MPC (which I would welcome at some point in the future, even gratis), I would suggest looking at it this way:  the recent stimulus of £375 Billion quantifies at around for a population of 66 million, at £5681 per head.  By contrat, the U.S. economy, with a population of 330 million, has had a recent stimulus post-2008 of 3T, quantifying at $9090 per head.  At current exchange rate for cable, that is £6060 per head in U.S., so the U.K. would be justified in doing another £379.60 per head, or....well, simple multiplicaion by 66 million....another £25 Billion or so to bring it to par with the U.S. (who will be probably stimulating further).
 
The British landscape shows a picture of shops which are not too busy, but you can't blame people for not spending what they haven't got.  The average social security payment is between £42 and £92 per week, just about enough to eat some simple food and drinks, so money for buying clothing or beds or curtains and such things is a bit scarce, compared to the bankers bonuses (being awarded from money which the banks are hoarding from the stimulus).  More of the stimulus needs to go to retail customers, either through increase in social net, or through direct lending at sensible rates, so the poor don't become victims of the sharks.
 
An additional stimulus of £25 to £50 Billion would be in order, I believe.  Not only that, to feed in an additional £5 per head may require stimulus of upto £275 Billion in due course, leaving scope for another £225 over the next year or 18 months.  That really would be sufficient to stimulate the economy in England, and make it the green and pleasant land it is, with a landscape of thriving businesses and factories, and restaurants (Chinese, Indian, Italian, Greek, Thai, Lebanese, et al), and proud house-owners and expensive cars being driven at a sedate pace. 
 
Such is how it should be, Sir Mervyn.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 

Just a little negative sentiment in the air...

Posted on October 19, 2012 at 1:37 PM Comments comments ()
There seems to be just a touch of negative sentiment in the air, which, together with profit-taking, have sent the markets heading down. 
 
First, the positives:  No matter who wins the U.S. election, the markets will go up.  That seems to be the sentiment, confirmed by David Blitzer of Standard and Poors.  Same sentiment was being expressed by Chief Analyst of Piper Jaffray some while ago, based on research into U.S. Presidential election years.
 
If Mitt Romney wins, then there's a "hoard of cash waiting to go into the markets" according to David Blitzer. 
 
The economic data out of China suggested a soft landing, a happy picture, with the indicators moving upwards currently, meaning a saucer shaped upturn.  The official China economist smiled benignly as he realeased this information.
 
Some people conjure up the negatives, with reference in the press and media to the Black Monday that happened 25 years ago.  Well, the power lines are clear, communications to brokers have not broken or anything, you can still get pretty full coverage of news on TV and Internet, and the weather....well, it is mild.  Some market participants would be happy for some Black Swan event, then their short bets would make a lot of money.  It may or may not happen, I don't have a crystal ball, nor have I taken any position in the market, so I do not win or lose either way.
 
However, it is my belief that the DOW will head upwards, possibly heading for 13,700 plus towards the end of this month.  Based on the natural trajectory to 15,000 by the end of the year, I start to believe Mitt Romney will win.  I know it sounds absurd to say it like this, but markets and their likely technical movements most often foretell even natural events such as rivers flooding or earthquakes or tsunamis.
On the other hand, even perfect formation on the Ichimoku charts have been known to fail, such as happened at the time of the Fukushima disaster. 
 
All in all, I believe in the positive picture, and the markets and the weather will probably reassure us all next week.  I hope so anyway.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

Thanks to Search Engines...w/e 29/9/12

Posted on September 29, 2012 at 11:01 AM Comments comments ()
Thanks very much to all the staff at Search Engines, for indexing me continually and hence enabling lot more people find my website and blog, which is beginning to get a growing number of visitors each week, I am happy to note.
 
Thanks in particular to : Stumbleupon.com - Tops, many many weeks consecutively.  Thanks!
                             -  Google  .com, .co.uk.,   .ca    The thrillion dollar superbrain always delivers
                             -  Facebook,   Myspace,  Delicious....  staid as always
                             -  Lamoda.kiev.ua    and Wearoptom.com.ua - new ones this week from Ukraine.
                                (Say hello to Yulia Tymoshenko, who I would nominate for the Nobel Prize
                                  - she is a heroine who saved people in Europe from a freezing death by
                                     opening the gas taps one Saturday afternoon, and for which she is now in
                                     hospital under prison guard).
 
Lot of people are looking for Baba Ramdev Shop in Seven Kings, Ilford.  Their telephone number is
0208-590 7900, and they are open mainly on Wednesday and Saturday, other days by appointment.
They have run out of stock of most of the very useful herbal remedies for diabetes and cholestrol, and they had something for Bird Flu but the W.H.O. has not yet certified it as such.  Sira's Supermarket in Southall may be able to provide details of a stockist.  Online, you can search at www.natureandherbs.com  in Glasgow and buy your items direct by post.
 
That's all for now.  Wish you good health, and I would appreciate your comments.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Business is failing because service to customers is poor

Posted on September 28, 2012 at 9:09 AM Comments comments ()
Sometimes you wonder what is happening to the High Street shops in Ilford, and why they seem to be closing.  One clue I would like to give them is that the customer service is extremely poor, it leaves a lot to be desired.
 
Last week I popped in at several electronics retailers, to look for a computer.  The shop, in one of those dreadful shopping parks, looked almost vacant from outside.  The doors were closed, there seemed no sign of lights or anything.  Then I saw the plate glass doors open, and I knew people were coming out of the shop. 
 
I went in.  There were a handful of customers, and just as many shop assistants.  I had a look round.  Impressive display of computers.  I was looking for a bargain, on a Pay and Take Away, where I could pay the first instalment and take the computer home with me.  I beckoned one of the assistants and asked him.  "I'm looking for something to buy on a Pay and Take Away, so I can pay over six months.  Could you tell me if you have any special offers at the moment?"
 
"One minute.  I'll check with someone," the assistant said and walked away. 
 
I stood there for ten minutes, then turned round to leave.  If they can't be bothered, customers can't either.  The assistant saw me, but he was busy on his mobile phone, animatedly talking with a friend.  He could see me looking at him, and about to leave.  He did not bother to offer any explanation, let alone an apology for keeping me waiting. 
 
There are lots of shops offering similar prices and similar deals.  It's amazing, even shocking, that with so much competition, shop assistants aren't bothered.  Such folks are letting businesses run down, and then you wonder why there is a feeling of apathy and couldn't care less about.  When people face poor customer service, naturally they too give up.  There's something wrong with peoples' attitudes that is translating into poor business practices and a slow-down in the economic activity.  That needs to be corrected, then I believe the economy will turn round. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 

Baba Ramdev, Ilford Shop

Posted on September 7, 2012 at 5:18 AM Comments comments ()
Couple of visitors to my website have searched for Baba Ramdev shop in Ilford.
This is at junction of Seven Kings High Road and Barley Lane.
There telephone number is 0208-590 7900, they only open on Wednesdays and Saturdays, and have limited supply of the herbal products, due to restrictions by the govt of U.K.  These are products made by Patanjali Yogpeeth of Uttrakhand, India, and have been found to be very beneficial for health.  They are sold at prices which reflect the idea of being affordable by even the poorest.  Patanjali Yogpeeth is a charitable organisation.  When the shop was open full time, they used to have a stream of visitors every day, and lot of the people I have personally spoken with said the products are very beneficial.
 
Of course it takes pressure off the hard-pressed NHS doctors and hospitals as people spend some of their own money to buy herbal products at very affordable rates and make themselves better.  The benefits to well-being are  worthwhile.   In view of this I hope the U.K. government will consider a plea to waive off unnecessary red-tape in the distribution of these herbal products.  It keeps a lot of well-meaning people doing voluntary work in this sector to provide their services and be productively busy.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Markets seem sideways for the moment

Posted on August 28, 2012 at 10:04 AM Comments comments ()
Amid talks of a financial stimulus and what will be announced after the meeting at Jackson Hole, the markets have seemed to pick up somewhat only to stop and pause for answers.  What is happening?  What sort of stimulus is in store?  If Qe2  was not very effective, what can be expected this time?
 
Mario Dragi of the ECB is not going to attend, due to a full intray at home and ongoing developments with the Eurozone. 
 
I guess some reassuring statement will once again be the order of the day, that if things so neccessitate, then a stimulus will be considered by the Federal Reserve. 
 
As the economic indicators in the States seem pretty healthy, suggesting a moderate growth which is likely to strengthen into 2013, perhaps some stimulus in the shape of residential and commercial portfolio consolidation by the government agencies and then more cheaper jumbo loans for hard-working and deserving families to share in the country's wealth, may prove most effective.  That is my suggestion.  More jobs, and side by side easier loans to buy houses and cars.  A common-sense formula for growth, which would see all sectors pick up.
 
I looked at the figures published by the Brookings Institution this morning.  It seems like a very steady Recovery for the U.S.  The Case-Schiller Index and the auto and transportation sector figures auger well for the next 9-12 months, a continuation of Recovery.
 
I welcome your feedback, so please do write in and let me know.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 

The "We must stick to Plan A" mantra is getting the wrong result.

Posted on August 22, 2012 at 2:44 PM Comments comments ()
It was not too long ago, in fact it was only April 2010, when before the May election the British people heard what the Tory Party would bring in.  Six billion pounds worth of cuts.  Oooh, painful, but it's a price that has to be paid, to restore the national budget.  They'll cut the top-heavy pay...about time.
Work instead of welfare....oh, okay, we'd rather be working....
 
And now, hardly two years have gone, and the cuts have turned into a huge exercise that has destroyed many jobs, shut many shops and factories and warehouses, cut services in the NHS and schools, and made people wonder on the insistence with Plan A.  If Plan A isn't working, then it's time to at least modify it : keep the good elements, and throw out the elements which are proving counter-productive.
 
Britain is indeed in a favourable position to borrow money on the international markets at a favourable rate, because of its stringent control of the economy, but there are rumours that the triple A rating may be affected in as little as nine months, going by the by-product of the measures, namely the increase in the public sector borrowing last month.  If this snowballs, then the whole strategy will be blamed.  Now is the time for the powers that be to pause and review Plan A, and see how else it can be modified.  A slightly adjusted navigation with a roadmap to Recovery may do wonders. 
 
As Milton Friedmann concluded from his study of the 1930s depression, the logical remedy was an expansion of the work force, turning people into happy citizens doing some work and earning their living.  That is the way to create wealth.  As people have pay packets, they can buy new cars, take out a mortgage, take some goods on credit, aspire to a rising standard of living.  England for the past several decades has had its unique brand of a society blessed with what was termed the New Prosperity.  England knows the mechanics of recreating that golden dream which all in England aspire too.  Only, the formula needs to be adjusted a little bit, and things will be alright for all, I believe.
 
Until my next blog,
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

Olympics, A-politics, and Interest Rates...

Posted on July 27, 2012 at 8:34 AM Comments comments ()
My blogs over the last 7 days, which are even more popular each week I'm glad to note, have been as follows :-
 
  -  The Golden Flame from Above
  -  Welcome to the Guest Book
  -  Good times ahead for India
  -  Things should only get better for Greece and Spain
  -  London welcomes a million visitors to the Olympics
  -  Hazaar Salaams and a 21 gun salute for President Pranab Mukherjee
  -  Good investment for English High Streets
  -  Amitabh Bachchan to run with the Golden Flame
  -  Who shoud cut the interest rate?
 
My blog is read across Google, Google+, News.Google, Myspace, Stumbleupon, Twitter, Delicious and Facebook and my own website www.durudarshan.co.uk/blog.  As always,
I am happy to hear your comments and suggestions.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Who should cut the interest rate?

Posted on July 26, 2012 at 10:43 AM Comments comments ()
Recently, the South African Central Bank unexpectedly cut its interest rate to 5 percent, in line with the trend of most major economies. 
China has too cut its benchmark rate to 6 percent, in an effort to provide stimulus to their domestic markets.
Thailand uses this a a policy mechanism, responding as swiftly as necessary to maintain their economic momentum.
 
Of the other BRICS nations, Banco Central de Brasil has reduced its rate down from a peak of 12.50 percent in July 2011 to 8 percent on 11th July 2012 in gradual steps.
The Russian Prime 3-month rate is currently 7.31 percent.
 
For the Bank of England, ECB, Bank of Japan, U.S. Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank, the rate is below 1 percent.
 
The Reserve Bank of India cut its repo rate to 8 percent recently.  In view of the slowdown in that economy, and in view of the IMF's advocacy of a policy of interest rate convergence, it seems this would be the best stimulus tool to deploy in the current cycle.  On Tuesday 31st July, hopefully it will be a bold move downwards to ward of recessionary habits taking hold.  The economy, the stockmarkets and the people can only react happily if money is cheaper to borrow, to propel growth and spending.  Hopefully, the picture will be a happier one on Tuesday.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 

Amitabh Bachchan to run with the Golden Flame

Posted on July 26, 2012 at 5:51 AM Comments comments ()
Bollywood Badshah Big B Amitabh Bachchan will be running with the Olympic Torch today, Thursday, participating in the relay of the Golden Flame from Above as it thrills its way through London towards the opening ceremony at Stratford tomorrow.
 
Excitement is certainly mounting up for the opening ceremony to the Games.  The weather is just beautiful, giving visitors a natural welcome.
 
The £9 billion spent on the Olympics is money well spent.  With the recently unveiled Shard Building, the City of London will attract ever more visitors and friends.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 

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