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|Posted on October 19, 2013 at 12:21 PM||comments (7)|
When I get so many readers from Kansas City to my blog, I think Narayani Namastute! Narayani Namastute! Yes, on the auspicious day of Full Moon, as it was yesterday, and with the conjunction of the debt ceiling raise decision in the U.S., I was wondering what the Kansas City Fed Chairman Narayanan Kocharlakota was thinking. I haven't read anything in the press, but he is normally an advocate of quantitative easing with deliberate measure. In this regard, again, it is early days to see a ballpark figure of the debt ceiling raise, and for the 4 months of January 15th, Congress has announced that the U.S. government will be fully funded. Their Comptroller is likely to know what that means, and how much money will continue to flow into the system until then.
In the meantime, it must be a great relief that the shutdown has been lifted. Never again, I can hear everyone saying. People have lost income and business, tourists have suffered not being able to visit monuments and museums they may have especially travelled over the States to visit. The short but very long 14 days have cost the U.S. dear, to the tune of some $24 Billion in lost revenue and productivity. The lesson is clear, such a shutdown over an extended period would cause the economy to slow down, and the economy to lose something on the GDP measure. It is like an economy in good shape being told to trim down. Never again, I hope.
As to the ballpark figure, my suggestion is $1.32 Trillion over 20 months, which works out at $66 Billion per month. After payment of some $60 Billion per month for the social security net, that leaves $6 Billion per month for enterprise and job creation. Jobs ranging in pay from $20 or $30,000 per annum to $250,000 per annum could be created, perhaps 300,000 or 400,000 per month. And he presto! within six months the U.S. would have whizzed on from Recovery to Prosperity.
But that's just a ballpark figure I am suggesting. At current Stimulus of $85 Billion per month, maybe it could be different. In view of the regime of Abenomics in Japan and their Stimulus of $85 Billion per month, the per capita differential is in Japan's favour. It is a theme to be explored over the coming days.
I am glad to note the global economic order has been stabilised after the agreement in the U.S. on the debt ceiling raise. As they all enjoy four months of relative calm and stability until 15th January and then to 7th February, I trust they will have this in mind and not give everyone, including themselves, a tough time.
Certainly, the costings and implementation of Obamacare is something they can review and see how technically it would be best implemented. The beginnings of the British NHS took about 40 years in gestation, before it received the blessing as a Royal Charter in 1947 under the kind King George. Obamacare is by comparison in its infancy, and needs to be tweaked and explored before this very sound principle can bring benefits to the citizens and the nation.
|Posted on October 15, 2013 at 2:35 PM||comments (5)|
Sound bites coming out of Washington this morning suggested that progress had been made on the debt ceiling raise negotiations, but there was still some work to be done.
Indeed, NDTV was stating that a deal had been agreed in principle, to the effect that there would be 'full funding' of the government till 15th January, and thereafter a debt ceiling renegotiation date of 15th February. If that is in fact so, that would be great news for everybody, at least they won't have to worry about the cold winds of November and can have a holiday and relax over Christmas before having to face the cold corridors of Washington in the New Year.
People are counting on the House Fathers Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell to bring everybody to the fold and get some agreement in principle, so that it can be presented to the world latest by Thursday.
Optimistically, everybody is waiting for such news.
In the meantime the U.S. Budget Office is issuing advisories in the event that an agreement is not reached. Namely that in the event of a debt ceiling limit not being raised, the government will have run out of authority to issue any more money into the system. In the most unlikely event of that happening, the ramifications would multiply twelve times what has happened under the Sequestration.
(The sequestration cuts totalled $85 billion over twelve months from a Q.E. budget running at $85 billion per month; hence one twelfth, so the effects of a halt would be magnified twelve times. This is just to put in context some meat for the doomsters. I cannot see the wise elected leaders of the U.S. ever leading America down that path, which would of course spell pessimistic scenarios for the world, as all nations trade with the U.S. and lot of people are engaged in producing something for export or working in calls centres and so forth which serves the major economies.)
Ideally, everybody would like to believe that such an agreement will be reached and released to the world, that full funding of the government continues until January, and then once again they can face the cold winds of February to negotiate another debt ceiling raise. In the meantime, the funding will ensure U.S. continues to trade at full strength with the world, and create more jobs at home and abroad, creating a continuation of the Recovery that has gladly blessed this great nation.
Japan is most definitely looking for an endorsement of the QE policies which they have implemented with a huge success, pulling Japan out from a phase of stagnation that lasted 20 years to what are glad welcomes of a Recovery. China likewise is re-focusing on domestic growth; how much better it will be if things continue in a positive way across the globe, so that there is work for the workshops, freight for the transport and the oceans, everyone doing something purposeful, busy, happy, earning their livelihoods, buying houses, cars, sending their children to schools and colleges and universities, a whole world procession in progress, the army of humanity.
How wonderful it will be for those wise leaders in Washington to agree upon and then issue to the world the words that signal the continuation of the economic Recovery at home, and by extension to the world. I pray for this.
Looking for inspiration yesterday, some words occurred to me, which I tweeted, as follows :
"Have faith, just believe. Everything will be all right, by the grace of God."
I sincerely believe that shall be so.
|Posted on October 8, 2013 at 3:41 PM||comments (6)|
Each one can imagine some kind of bleak scenario, in the event that the Debt Ceiling was breached and there was no agreement in Washington between the Republicans and Democrats.
At the moment, the world watches in exasperation as the two sides debate and give a very mixed impression. As they gleefully remain entrenched as to what they will concede or not, the time is ticking away to 17th October.
Japan and China have wondered at the shutdown, and why it is not being lifted swiftly. In those nations, such a situation, were it ever to arise, would be reversed as a matter of honour and in the interests of not impeding the economic engine. It would be done swiftly with a command from the leadership.
In the U.S., by contrast, as is the nature of democracy, every fine detail has to be debated. That is fair enough, but time is running out nevertheless.
In the event that there is no Debt Ceiling raise by 17th October, one can envisage a bleak picture where government will not be able to pay its employees, which of course also includes the Representatives and Senators who have defended very narrow corners and brought about the current shutdown and the furloughs, disrupting peoples' daily routines and reducing their paypackets. Of course this would have an impact on the economy overall were it to continue for any length of time. Just over a week has gone, and the mood on the stockmarket has been subdued. If it were to continue for consecutive 21 days, probably it would cause a disheartening mood, which would dampen the feelings and start a down-turn.
Secretary of State for the Treasury Mr Jacob Lew has said there would be about $30 billion for cash-flow, in a 'four trillion dollar enterprise'. That may be sufficient for 12 days, which would take everyone to 29th October. If there was no agreement by then, can you imagine anything but the stock markets falling, a fear factor and a lack of confidence, people being laid off by private enterprises as well. I would bet the Oil price would plummet, demand would be so drastically reduced. The domino effect would be worldwide, nothing short of alarming. It would be like looking at Greece in its recent dark days, only the U.S. is a much bigger economy, with over 16 times the population of Greece. Not only that, what is the sovereign currency of a well-functioning economy and the Reserve Currency of the world would have its standing compromised.
I trust they have some arrangement in place, whether by bi-partisan co-operation, putting aside for the moment the other issues which are dividing them at the moment, and agreeing to a Debit Ceiling raise by 17th October; or, arrangements in place to allow the President to exercise his prerogative under the 14th Amendment and sign in an amount that would be prudent and necessary.
Mr Obama has mentioned that the debt burden has been reduced by Two and a Half Trillion in the last few years, so his Administration's policies have been productive and praiseworthy, pulling the whole economy out of a severe recession and creating a nation with huge heatmaps of happiness, which have provided growing confidence worldwide. The sooner the uncertainity regarding the Debt Ceiling raise is removed, the better will it be for the whole world. America's well-wishers and creditors alike would feel good, a positive mood of certainity and predictability for future growth would continue worldwide.
The last Debt Ceiling raise in August 2011 has proved efficacious, and so there would be universal approval and applause for such a measure this once also. Those who believe in doing right by their fellow humanbeings, let them also do right by the currency that says 'In God We Trust'.
|Posted on October 5, 2013 at 2:31 PM||comments (2)|
Hi everyone, how are you?
I wrote and published several blog posts over the last seven days, as follows :-
- Germany a good model of employment
- Forward guidance and the UK Housing market
- Light a candle....
- Stimulus? Taper? Where we headed?
- Mr Bernanke's penultimate testimony before he leaves the Fed.
- The paradox in inflation
- My blog posts this month
- Thanks for visiting my website.
- Bi-partisan Agreement or 14th Amendment, either way Debt Ceiling will be raised.
- Netherlands, Kansas City, Kharkov....welcome, welcome!
Over the 7 days, I note Referring Traffic to my website and blog (www.durudarshan.co.uk)
from the following. I express my thanks to the staff at these organisations, for listing my website and blog....without you, all these readers wouldn't have found me so easily. Thanks!
I am pleased to note that the value of my website is going up, and I am getting more visitors each month. I am particularly pleased to note that I rank tops with Google. That is thanks to my parents for having given me this unique name. (Duru is the North Star, and darshan means obeisance).
I hope you find something interesting to read on my website or blog. I like to tune in to receive any interesting information, most of which I share with my readers.
This morning, I went and helped clean the LDS Chapel here in Ilford. I opened the windows, then squirted some bleach into the toilet pans on all three floors. Whilst this was doing its job, I moved the chairs in the Sacrament Hall and hovered the carpet. Just nice and easy, and the exercise did me good. In the peace and quiet of physical labour, the mind becomes quiet and receives the Eurekas!
Until next time,
Wish you a great weekend.
|Posted on October 4, 2013 at 2:59 PM||comments (3)|
It is a concensus worldwide, and not only in Washingdon D.C., that the Debt Ceiling which needs to be raised to avoid a default, which the U.S. certainly does not wish to entertain, will be raised, be it (preferably) by bi-partisan co-operation and agreement in Congress, or by Presidential Prerogative.
Secretary for the Treasury Jack Lew has suggested 17th October as the date when the current debt ceiling arrangements hit top. It will be both prudent and necessary to raise it further, and in the current shutdown scenario in Washington the options are plain : Either the partial shutdown of the departments is swiftly lifted and government can function once again as normal, giving enough time for a bi-partisan consultation and agreement on a Debt Ceiling raise; alternatively, give the President the opportunity to exercise the Presidential Prerogative under the 14th Amendment and sign into law a figure he believes justified to safeguard the normal functioning of the government and the U.S. economy.
The new jobs created figure today of 155,000 for September seems pretty healthy, although to see a fully fledged Recovery would need about 400,000 to 500,000 new jobs per month for about 6 months. Until then, the environment demands continuation of a Stimulus, which may be tapered later when conditions improve further. In the meantime, the record low interest rate gives hope that the housing market can continue to improve and strengthen, together with auto sales and hand-in-hand creation of many jobs and heatmaps of happiness. Strength of the U.S. economy for now seems a barometer of the world economy, as confidence in the world's largest economy always impacts everywhere else.
In Japan, Premier Abe's government continues with their Stimulus, which was running at $85 billion a month (equal to the U.S. stimulus at its current height). This has enabled the Japanese economy to pull out of the stagnation that has marred it for over 20 years; the investment and build-up after the Fukushima disaster has enabled Japan lay the foundation for continued improvement and growth, the fruits of which Japan shares with investment overseas in neighbouring countries and abroad. Their GNP
figures will be nothing less than impressive, with substantial investments in the U.S. also.
It will be a great blessing for the U.S. to raise the debt ceiling in a timely fashion, and renew the confidence worldwide that things can continue as normal everywhere, which can add impetus to further growth worldwide from a strengthening Recovery to Prosperity. For that I pray.
|Posted on September 28, 2013 at 5:43 PM||comments (42)|
Thanks for visiting my blog and website, I hope you found something interesting to read.
There seems a constant swirl of stacks of information, both online and in printed form.
Most of the relevant information that makes an impact on affairs is both time sensitive and scarce,
that is the information that I try and gather and interpret, for my own reference as well as to share with my readers.
I wrote these blogs this month....I am happy a lot of people enjoy reading my take on various topical issues, with several thousand visiting my blog just last Friday and Saturday, especially from Chicago.
Hello guys, wear your thinking caps on...
Mr Bernanke's penultimate testimony before he leaves the Fed.
Forward guidance and the UK housing market
Light a cancle...
Thanks for visiting my website
Notes from the LDS chapel, Ilford
Germany a good model of employment
The paradox in inflation
Stimulus? Taper? Where we headed?
Bank of England forward guidance.
Have a read, and let me know what you think.
In the meantime, thanks to all the readers who have written in their
compliments and suggestions.
|Posted on September 24, 2013 at 5:10 AM||comments (1)|
The economic news seems pretty positive all round, for continued worldwide economic Recovery. India of course is out of sync on the benchmark interest rate, but it is a dynamic economy where the leadership are a little bit too cautious to accelerate growth. For the moment it seems it will just motor along steadily, and blaming the high inflation on the scarcity of onions, which they are plentifully exporting.
The Greek economy seems to be on the mend, with a secondary surplus expected. With a nation with a population of 20 million and a large area, perhaps they need to encourage people who enjoy farming. The potential must be huge with good climate, abundance of water and good weather as well.
The situation in Spain seems pretty positive too, with a growth of 0.2 percent expected for the second quarter. The benefits of creating jobs and filling up the empty housing, additionally with putting more buses on the roads to service secluded areas more frequently, will surely add to the growth. Blessed with good weather and friendly people, I believe there is huge potential for continued growth in Spain.
A Latin version of Hollywood and Bollywood must surely be a possibility, with intercontinental co-productions?
Germany, well the situation seems so good, with Mme Angela Merkel back in the driving seat.
As regards the U.S., the talk of taper seems both promising and cautionary. As Treasury Minister Jack Lew has suggested, the Debt Ceiling issue needs addressing quite soon. The talk to me seems like a tapered candle, or a washer to be tapered on a lathe...I suppose Mr Bernanke will suggested what will need to be done. The debt ceiling fix of a $1.45 Trillion in August 2011 was a job well done, adding to the money supply and creating the cash flow that has translated into so many jobs, a pick up in the housing market, and continued growth in the US economy, creating heatmaps of happiness for so many more people. The stockmarkets and the banks seem in robust health, creating a huge pool of capital that will service the needs of people as and when they need to borrow and spend. Cash rich companies like Apple attest to that fact.
What would be great would be perhaps the creation of 500,000 jobs per month on a costing of $7 billion per month. If that much additional capital was infused into the system by way of the taper, that would be just great. Five years after the collapse of October 2008, the economic systems seem in much better shape, with strong financial institutions and safeguards in place. A steady worldwide Economic Recovery seems to have been achieved, through co-operation and understanding of nations and the grace of God. In celebration and to continue with Recovery, the world counts on seeing the Republicans and the Democrats in Washington support a cordial agreement, and light a new candle to Prosperity.
Ladies and gentlemen, you may step up to the alter, and light the candle that will add substance to the drams of humanity.
(written by Duru-darshan)
|Posted on September 21, 2013 at 6:09 AM||comments (5)|
Thanks for visiting my website and reading my blog. I hope you found something interesting.
Life is fun, with demands on time in so many directions.
Thursday I went to the Community Centre in Cricklewood. Every Full Moon, they do prayers to Satnarayan Swami and Mata Laxmi. It is a tradition we Sindhis have followed for generations, to pray to God and Goddess to give us peace in the household, and prosperity in our business affairs.
Later I visited the Southbank Centre, attracted there by the exhibition of her Picasso like painting by
Sangeeta Roshni Babani (she is an inspired painter from Mumbai, and she's Sindhi too, so I thought I'll
pay there a visit).
Sangeeta hadn't obtained her visa, and therefore could not be there. Other artists from India exhibited
their creations alongside a few of Sangeeta's paintings.
Particularly I liked a table whose top opens in segments like a fan, and this is adorned by mirrors.
This is by Yamin Mohiuddin from Hyderabad. I can see such a piece adorning some young one's bedroom or even a hairdressing salon. It would look good in a media company's foyer.
If you like genuine teak furniture, like a chair crafted like black petals, or a palm made of teak, and don't mind paying about £800 for such items, Firdos Furnishers of Nagpur have several pieces on display.
An English idea that seemed to catch everyone's eye was Gerrad the Second. This is a folding dog that looks like an inspired work of origami, with 188 sections to unfold and paste together very very carefully with Uhu glue. The small ones sell for £20, and are limited editions of 500. Fair enough. They have decorative prints of dollar notes, piping, mascots, newspaper cuttings and so on, like industry or sector or indeed national mascots.The large ones, including one made of black wool decorated with harlequin squares, well, those will become collector's items, starting in an auction in 2014 at £1,000. Absolutely grand. Made by Liam from Liverpool.
Today I missed going to the Millionaire Mentors Bootcamp at the Hilton, London Bridge. There is a free general entrace, generously hosted by Raymond Aaron, the bestselling author. Problem is, it starts at 9 am on Saturday and Sunday. Just a bit too early to travel up there for me; otherwise it seems an event worth attending. Finishes at 6pm both days. Bootcamp to give you quick fire ideas how to boot up your ideas and send them skyrocketing.
I am sure someone can suggest ideas to make my website and blog into a money minting machine. Well, hold my hand and show me the way.
|Posted on September 19, 2013 at 5:56 PM||comments (1)|
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke made a cordial testimony yesterday, a month now before he is due to step down from office. Essentially, he restated that the quantitative easing measures need to remain in place until the economic Recovery picks up further steam, but such measures have greatly benefitted the economic pickup and that the economy is strengthening thanks to such measures.
There is nothing but appreciation for Ben Bernanke's handling of the Federal Reserve policies, and I admire this Statesman greatly. His unique style has helped keep just that degree of suspense that is discretion, while at the same time sharing as much information as has been necessary to bolster stability. The world stock markets got a boost after his testimony yesterday.
It remains to be seen how the Obama administration will fix the debt ceiling issue, which Treasury Secretary Jack Lew has indicated may fall due in October. Will it be bi-partisan co-operation by the Republicans and the Democrats as before? When everything is going so well, it is to be expected that they will push through the required votes to help Recovery stay on course, as would be both prudent and necessary.
Whoever is selected to be the next Fed Chairman, essentially the pro-growth policies are expected to stay in place.
I have a hunch that the Dow Jones Industrial Index will either shoot for 17000 by the end of the year, or head up for 16000. What the mind of man can conceive and believe, it can achieve. I sense it will be possible.
|Posted on July 26, 2013 at 8:40 AM||comments (1)|
Yesterday I passed a beautiful shop, Nails of Promise, in Gants Hill, Ilford.
Previously, I had been to view this shop, when it was lying empty. At that time, somebody had just stopped trading there as a Training Provider . The empty premises were naturally depressive.
The figures didn't stack up for me and a partner for a venture we had in mind.
But yesterday when I saw the shop, I was really impressed. The proprietor, Tony Fox, who is from Brazil, has turned the shop into a beautiful salon, specialising in doing nails. Now that is a service people like, and most ladies are prepared to pay the charges for beautification. Ton told me he has a full book, busy every day, and has to turn customers away until he adds a trainee in the very near future. "Most young people don't realize that the first thing in a business is customer service : how to attend customers and attend to their needs. And training obviously takes time and attention."
He took the empty shell of a shop and has done it up beautifully, with an ivory white laminate floor, complementing walls, lights and mirrors, ceramic desks, swivel chairs, sofas, table lamps and a slim chandelier. You can well imagine what sort of figure conscious customers come in here.
He did all the interior decorating himself, with a budget of about thirty thousand pounds. It's taken courage and confidence to create this salon, but it is doing well, and will grow in the near future.
In this location, most other businesses would not have survived, because there are other competing establishments not far away. But a Nail Salon, great promise. I draw the lesson from this that the right choice of business (or even a political candidate), backed with promise, will restore Prosperity.