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Honest Information, Profitable Trading

Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

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Magnificent, the ECB Stimulus

Posted on January 25, 2015 at 5:08 PM Comments comments (10)
The Trillion Euro stimulus announced this afternoon by ECB President Mario Draghi is nothing less than magnificent in my view, and will help create jobs and industry for millions, and turn into wealth.  This stimulus augurs well for the European stockmarkets and for the Euro itself, which it now underpins with a very positive aspect.  It seems to have been announced at the right time, and although the immediate market reaction may not have been wildly enthusiastic, it is a complex stimulus, needing people to understand and digest its implications.

In plain terms, it is 60 billion Euros per month over 18 months, starting from March to September 2016, meaning a total of 1,080,000,000,000* Euros.  This was announced by Mr Draghi at the press conference in Frankfurt this afternoon.

It will serve the 19 nations that make up the Euro Area, or Eurozone, which now includes as from 1st January 2015 Lithuania.   However, it will not be available at the moment to Greece, which benefits from arrangements already in place from the IMF, which gave them two bailouts and numerous haircuts.  Perhaps there could be cross border mergers of some organisations which would benefit all?

There seems enough appetite for additional funds, especially by companies who have not been able to find funding from the banks so far.  This is a ready segment that will be glad to be served by this Stimulus.  As in England and Britain, where Mr Cameron has been visiting various companies, who have received funding now, something similar needs to be implemented in the Eurozone.  Money invested in companies which need capital for upgrades of machinery, or cash flow to keep the factories operating while their customers arrange to pay them, will maintain employment and sustain livelihoods and, hopefully, even create wealth in the long term.  That 'old school' way of trading had died recently in the credit crunch, and could well do with revival.  It may be the clue to bring Recovery back on stream.


This Trillion Euro Stimulus was long awaited, and probably is just in time, now joining the money flow in the U.S., Japan and China, to maintain the worldwide economic Recovery, which shall flourish to Prosperity for all nations.  The next stage surely must be for the BRICS nations to reduce their benchmark interest rates and for the Emerging Markets to do something similar, in due course to be followed by Africa perhaps?  Or even simultaneously, and soon?  Why not?  The national books can become squared internationally, as each nation develops its resources, trades with the other nations, and brings development and growth at home.  Would that not be the most marvellous thing to happen?


I wish you peace and prosperity, to every nation, man, woman and child.


Kind regards,

Duru-darshan


(c)  Copyright.

P.S. Earlier I left out three 0's.  Aw aw aw!


Obamacare, some teething problems.

Posted on November 5, 2013 at 7:26 AM Comments comments (3)
It appears the Obamacare rollout has had teething problems, especially with the website interfacing.
 
Perhaps they should have stuck with their initial design, just to guage peoples interest without putting them off by asking comprehensive personal details.  It's like me asking you for your personal details before allowing you to read my blog.
 
Good news comes from Professor Gruber's analysis of the figures that would need or benefit from Obamacare, and provided provisions have been pencilled in for the expenditure, the launch should be quite successful, after the rationale is accepted by Joe Public. 
 
It seems that about 14 percent of the U.S. population would need Obamacare, the other 86 percent are adequately catered for. 
 
Of the 14 percent, Obamacare seeks to enlist the young working people, who don't have any kind of health care provision.  Once these people start to sign up in numbers, I presume the premium costs would start to come down.  It has to be attractive for people to sign up, not a cumbersome figure that people would be unwilling to pay and indeed may not see the immediate necessity to pay if they are currently in good health.  Everything being equal, most people would expect to continue to enjoy good health, and it seems a foolish waste of money to buy an insurance policy for health to most young people.  However, good health carries no guarantees into the future, and it is against this that people need to have cover, seeing how people's lives are sometimes marred by ill-health and their careers written off.  It is against this realistic look that young people need to consider taking up a policy to safeguard their future.
 
(In Britain it is straightforward enough.  Everyone is levied what is termed National Insurance, which is a fixed percentrage of one's income, and universally everyone gets medical cover under the National Health Service.  Some out of personal preference for quicker or better service decide to take out additional policies with private health insurance companies.  Side by side, the NHS and organisations such as the not-for-profit BUPA and Simply Health serve the population very well, in practical terms.)
 
If lot more people show an interest in what Obamacare offers, presumably the insurance premiums would start to come down and encourage more and more people to sign on, so it would actually deliver what would become affordable health care. 
 
As the issue is debated and considered, I guess it will gather acceptance, if not straight away then over a number of years.  Good health brings great benefits in enjoyment of life and work, creating a happy atmosphere and bringing prosperity to all, a welcome place.
 
Kind regards,
Durudarshan Dadlani
 
 

Thanks for visiting my website.

Posted on September 21, 2013 at 6:09 AM Comments comments (5)
Thanks for visiting my website and reading my blog.  I hope you found something interesting.
 
Life is fun, with demands on time in so many directions.
 
Thursday I went to the Community Centre in Cricklewood.  Every Full Moon, they do prayers to Satnarayan Swami and Mata Laxmi.  It is a tradition we Sindhis have followed for generations, to pray to God and Goddess to give us peace in the household, and prosperity in our business affairs.
 
Later I visited the Southbank Centre, attracted there by the exhibition of her Picasso like painting by
Sangeeta Roshni Babani (she is an inspired painter from Mumbai, and she's Sindhi too, so I thought I'll
pay there a visit).
 
Sangeeta hadn't obtained her visa, and therefore could not be there.  Other artists from India exhibited
their creations alongside a few of Sangeeta's paintings. 
 
Particularly I liked a table whose top opens in segments like a fan, and this is adorned by mirrors.
This is by Yamin Mohiuddin from Hyderabad.  I can see such a piece adorning some young one's bedroom or even a hairdressing salon.  It would look good in a media company's foyer. 
 
If you like genuine teak furniture, like a chair crafted like black petals, or a palm made of teak, and don't mind paying about £800 for such items, Firdos Furnishers of Nagpur have several pieces on display.
 
An English idea that seemed to catch everyone's eye was Gerrad the Second.  This is a folding dog that looks like an inspired work of origami, with 188 sections to unfold and paste together very very carefully with Uhu glue.  The small ones sell for £20, and are limited editions of 500.  Fair enough.  They have decorative prints of dollar notes, piping, mascots, newspaper cuttings and so on, like industry or sector or indeed national mascots.The large ones, including one made of black wool decorated with harlequin squares, well, those will become collector's items, starting in an auction in 2014 at £1,000.  Absolutely grand.  Made by Liam from Liverpool.
 
 #####################################sangeeta############################################
 
Today I missed going to the Millionaire Mentors Bootcamp at the Hilton, London Bridge.  There is a free general entrace, generously hosted by Raymond Aaron, the bestselling author.  Problem is, it starts at 9 am on Saturday and Sunday.  Just a bit too early to travel up there for me;  otherwise it seems an event worth attending.  Finishes at 6pm both days.  Bootcamp to give you quick fire ideas how to boot up your ideas and send them skyrocketing.
 
 
I am sure someone can suggest ideas to make my website and blog into a money minting machine.  Well, hold my hand and show me the way. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.

Mixed signals about the economic picture

Posted on July 30, 2013 at 8:08 AM Comments comments (2)
There seem to be mixed signals about the economy. 
 
The OPEC countries exported oil worth $1.27 Trillion last year, so that much wealth has been created for their economies and the nations who trade with them.  What is baffling is the high Oil price, which in my calculation is far too high to sustain Recovery.  Couple that with an observation made by Prince Al-waleed bin Talaal that in view of increasing shale gas production, especially in the U.S., the world is less reliant on oil from OPEC, meaning declining demand in years to come.  Most OPEC nations' infrastructure development projects would stay on line were the price per barrel no less than $85, that was according to Sheikh Al-Naimi and Sheikh Al-Badari as well as the Algerian oil minister about a year ago. 
 
The housing numbers from the U.S. on the Case-Schiller map have not been as robust as was expected; indeed, housing starts have been the slowest for 18 years.  While reduced inventory is holding up prices, there needs to be much more construction activity.
 
In the meantime, Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycles Research Institute, who looks at the leading indicators, suggests he has seen figures to indicate a slow-down, which would probably show up in the real economy in another four-five months time.  Corrective measures by government and big corporations in creating jobs and a resurgence of confidence could help to avert that scenario. 
 
All humans like to eat and drink well, dress well, live in comfortable housing, have good transport, have good entertainment, read books, listen to music, watch movies, play in the park, go on holidays, and so on, and people always have aspirations that the economy - in the combined efforts of all to innovate, develop, utilize and monetize all that God has put on earth - will help them with improving standards of living.  That is what everyone wants. 
 
Good news from the U.S. is that they are creating about 150,000 or more jobs each month, and today sees the announcement by Amazon of the creation of 5,000 jobs at their HQ.
 
I suggest a lower Oil price would help Recovery regain its sure steps, for a worldwide economic Recovery.  I pray for that.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 

The youth unemployment and the Retirement age

Posted on May 28, 2013 at 7:24 AM Comments comments (8)
It seems a little bit of tweaking and changes in policy may improve the situation in Europe dramatically, at least I believe so.
 
The high rate of unemployment amongst the under-25s and the debate about the Retirement age surely throws up possibilities of correction and growth in the right segments. 
 
People like to retire early, not work into their old age!  People like to work a slightly shorter week, so they can enjoy some leisure time enjoying the sunshine, pottering around town, meeting friends, playing cards, taking youngsters to all the exciting places, and so on.  That is the boon of the Digital age, where people shouldn't have to work long hours.  Each new generation should have more leisure time, and a better standard of living.  Why not? 
 
And the young people, why should they be unemployed?  If there is work to be done, they should do it instead of the older people.  Does it not make sense?  It would reduce unemployment amongst the young people, who are the strength of this generation.  What a relief it would bring. 
 
If more young people are facilitated into the jobs market, they will become empowered to do all the traditional jobs such as plumbing, shop-keeping, driving, cooking and catering, house-building, architecture, book-keeping, teaching, nursing, pharmacology, dentistry, librarianship, well you can add a few names as well.
 
As the young people work, the economy will boom, able to support the people who need to retire and draw a pension.  It will seem fair if people who have worked hard for so many years can retire at a reasonable age and enjoy a future of a leisurely life, whilst the young can convert all their talents and energy into wealth for their nations, by work, enterprise and innovation. 
 
Europe can endeavour to put young people into traditional occupations, as well as nurturing talents for the digital economy.  Maybe the lucky ones will help create some star performers like Facebook or Pulse or Tumblr, and those can be developed as hobbies by the rest of us I guess. 
 
Now I hope the legislators and labour department superemos can sit down and formulate some ideas that will turn all that latent energy into wealth and growth for Europe.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

Time for the Presidential Prerogative, I believe

Posted on May 5, 2013 at 4:20 PM Comments comments (1)
A time will come very soon when the U.S. debt clock hits 16.15 Trillion.  That is a self-reminder to the American nation to review its finances, and see what savings and improvements could be made, to eventually balance the National Ledger one day.  As is true of all sovereign nations, the national ledgers are very seldom balanced, thank God, for development, expansion, review and progress are activities that are forward looking. 
 
Nations which are having to balance their books and keep expenditure strictly under control due to lack of overseas support typically are tiny nations, with limited natural resources, who have exhausted their credits with other nations and thus become at the mercy of God and the goodwill of friendly nations.
 
With the U.S., it has plenty of natural resources, a nation that is influential in its friendship across the globe, and in spite of being one of the major developed nations still has plenty of scope for further development.  To wit, they are still building extensions to the railways in Pasadena, in California, and with the product developments there, the U.S. in my opinion is fully several years ahead of most other economies. 
 
Many fine houses were lying empty across the U.S. in the midst of a housing meltdown; that has now gradually and surely started to heal.  Every month the U.S. is creating more jobs, and the unemployment rate has started to go down.  The 165,000 new jobs created in April were something that cheered the markets, and took the DOW to over the golden 15,000 bar which I believed it would vault over (I wrote as much in early 2012). 
 
The only thing that remains is for the U.S. Recovery to continue is the Debt Ceiling II, the date for this seems to be around May the 18th. 
 
It is my assumption that the best course of action would be for the President to exercise his Prerogative in this regard, and sign in, with the full bi-partisan co-operation of Congress, a further figure of 1T.  This may even be modified to say 250B over 6 months from 18th May in view of the improving economy and creation of jobs on a wholesome budget.  That would ensure continuation of Recovery and happiness and welfare of people, together with creation of wealth through exchange of production and consuming thereof, and money swirling in the system and returning to banks and eventually to the Fed
(through financing and creating wealth). 
 
In about two years, when Prosperity appears in U.S. and the other nations which follow and further Peace, the name of the undersigned may be forgotten, but who cares? 
 
God is our Heavenly Father, and as He has so inspired capable men and women to administer the affairs of nations, He has so inspired scribes to give a helping hand. Today, it is my belief that everything will be fine by the grace of God, and the suggested course of action will lead to a greater Prosperity for all. 
 
I am always glad to hear from my Readers their comments and opinions, and any hints they wish to share with me.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

How stimulating!

Posted on March 7, 2013 at 4:30 AM Comments comments (5)
Cup of herbal tea, a little square of chocolate....?  Perhaps a cup of decaf, smooth as milk?
 
Today is Thursday, when the Bank of England and the ECB will issue some statements regarding
the interest rates (which are already at an all-time low) or other measures to stimulate the economies
in Europe.
 
After the recent aggregate £375 Billion pumped into the U.K. economy, Sir Mervyn King has to ponder the question of whether another £50 Billion stimulus would be prudent and necessary.  Are the MPC allowed to open their minds to him? 
 
If I had the privilege of sitting on the MPC (which I would welcome at some point in the future, even gratis), I would suggest looking at it this way:  the recent stimulus of £375 Billion quantifies at around for a population of 66 million, at £5681 per head.  By contrat, the U.S. economy, with a population of 330 million, has had a recent stimulus post-2008 of 3T, quantifying at $9090 per head.  At current exchange rate for cable, that is £6060 per head in U.S., so the U.K. would be justified in doing another £379.60 per head, or....well, simple multiplicaion by 66 million....another £25 Billion or so to bring it to par with the U.S. (who will be probably stimulating further).
 
The British landscape shows a picture of shops which are not too busy, but you can't blame people for not spending what they haven't got.  The average social security payment is between £42 and £92 per week, just about enough to eat some simple food and drinks, so money for buying clothing or beds or curtains and such things is a bit scarce, compared to the bankers bonuses (being awarded from money which the banks are hoarding from the stimulus).  More of the stimulus needs to go to retail customers, either through increase in social net, or through direct lending at sensible rates, so the poor don't become victims of the sharks.
 
An additional stimulus of £25 to £50 Billion would be in order, I believe.  Not only that, to feed in an additional £5 per head may require stimulus of upto £275 Billion in due course, leaving scope for another £225 over the next year or 18 months.  That really would be sufficient to stimulate the economy in England, and make it the green and pleasant land it is, with a landscape of thriving businesses and factories, and restaurants (Chinese, Indian, Italian, Greek, Thai, Lebanese, et al), and proud house-owners and expensive cars being driven at a sedate pace. 
 
Such is how it should be, Sir Mervyn.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 

Is the Fiscal Cliff a Roller-Coaster, or is it a Merry-to-Round?

Posted on December 14, 2012 at 1:02 PM Comments comments (2)
On 2nd August 2011 I believe it was that the debt ceiling was raised by 2.15 Trillion dollars, to take the U.S. national debt outstanding to just over 16 Trillion dollars.  Some of the television channels display the figure, showing just how close it is to the top figure.  What happens then, people may wonder. 
 
At the same time, some channels are displaying the numbers of days, hours, minutes and seconds to the countdown, as if they can't let people just remember it is midnight on the last day of the year, when most people will just be merry with a drink or two and probably looking skywards as firecrackers light up the sky in celebration.
 
The debt ceiling figure when it is reached will be totally at the discretion of the U.S. Federal Reserve and its Chairman, Dr Ben Bernanke, and the U.S. government,  to adjust it upwards.  The response yesterday was a no-comment, although I believe it is necessary and prudent that the ceiling will have to be raised by another One Trillion for another year.  In the meantime, the figures from the U.S. suggest a continuing though lukewarm Recovery, but the signs are positive in the U.S. Housing market, with interest rates at an all-time low, likely to give people courage to buy houses over the coming months.
Some commentators have suggested an additional stimulus to the $40 billion a month Mortgage Backed Securities purchase, in the form of another $45 billion per month to purchase government securities.  This would be a prudent move, and perhaps a figure of $60 billion per month may be more comfortable.
 
Car sales in Europe may be lower than in previous years, but exports to overseas remain strong, as evidenced by figures quoted for the British car manufacturers by PM David Cameron recently.
 
The manufacturing figures from China also give hope that a corner has been turned and things are moving in the right direction.  Both technical and fundamental figures from China give a positive picture.  In 1990, a rising star in the Politburo made a prediction, and subsequently the GDP moved up.  That rising star assumes the reigns of power in China in March, the Party Chief Xi Jinping.
 
The above factors suggest to me a continuation of the worldwide economic Recovery, for that I pray.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

25 Years after they became Rich

Posted on December 14, 2012 at 6:12 AM Comments comments (1)
It is almost a sermon for the times that may be surmised from the reading of two books.
 
There is a chapter in Think and Grow Rich, which tells of a fabulous party at a hotel where eight of the richest and most influential men of those days are assembled.  They transact business deals that make them even richer.
 
You Were Born Rich picks up the thread of the story 25 years later.  Some of these multi-billionaires have died in poverty,  others ended their own lives. 
 
What was motivating and inspiring in one book gives pause for thought in the second.  Not that there is anything wrong in accumulating wealth, but some of these people had overlooked one law of life.
 
According to Bob Proctor, who is a great inspirational writer, such a law is to love humanity, not wealth.  The reversal of that law creates misery. 
 
Surmise what you will from the above, be happy and stay rich, for you were born rich.  So long as money keeps circulating in the system, and doesn't sit there "in a jar", everything should be okay, for not only is humanity born rich, we all are the spiritual wealth of God.
 
As Christmas nears, do as the Good Lord would have us do, and show your kindness to the world.
 
Wish you all a Merry Christmas.
 
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Bailouts and the Fiscal Cliff

Posted on December 10, 2012 at 10:18 AM Comments comments (1)
As Spain gets ready to receive its bailout package of 39.5 Billion on the 12th, the markets are wondering who will next ask for a bailout?  Could it be Ireland, Cyprus, Portugal....?
 
Originally I thought Italy would be next in line, but Signor Silvio Berlusconi's announcement that he's withdrawing support for Premier Mario Monti and thinking of standing again for the Premiership has caused upset in the Italian stockmarket.  Today, it has gone down 3.5 percent upon hearing that Mario Monti, the technocrat Prime Minister who has helped Italy steer a steady course in recent months, is considering resigning if his support is withdrawn.  The yields on Italian bonds have started to go up.  How patriotic would it be for Signor Berlusconi to come back centre stage now?  It would be more patriotic in my view for Signor Berlusconi to support Premier Monti's government.
 
The debacle in Misratta and the aftermath, when bond yields just shot up and have had to be hoisted down, is something that will come back to peoples' memories.  It is an episode not worth repeating.  As Italy makes steady headway to Recovery, the greatest act of patriotism would be for the Signor to back the Premier, and the Premier to stay on, confident in the belief that he is steering the right course of action, and without him his country will become rudderless. 
 
Activity from Lisbon suggests Portugal is also hoping for a bailout, as is Ireland, and as is Cyprus.  They probably could do with about 10 Billion for a year each, to lay further foundations for Recovery. 
 
Superstorm Sandy dealt the U.S. a savage blow, right in the middle of the Presidential election.  Hoboken, Staten Island, Lower Manhattan were all badly flooded, and the announcement of 240 Billion of rebuilding by the government and insurance funds must be a morale booster. 
 
A solution to the U.S. fiscal cliff scenario is the issuance of an additional trillion over the course of the next year.  Some commentators are suggesting a figure of $45 Billion per month for buying government securities, in addition to the $40 billion MBS already announced.  I reckon a figure of $60 billion per month for purchase of government securities would be more comfortable, making a total of 1.2 trillion for the year. 
 
Hearing that millionaire households have had to go on food stamps and that the swing voters were affected by Obamacare and the social security net, is a sobering thought. 
 
The U.S. seems on a sound, expansion phase, and amicable agreement on the course of action regarding the fiscal ledger entries and creation of many more jobs per million of investment, will ensure the framework for a continued worldwide Recovery, as all nations manufacture and consume and trade and develop and grow.  As Swami Vivekanada once remarked "Never underestimate the glory of human nature".  And so it shall always be, the outlook for the world remains positive and optimistic.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.