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Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

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What are the chances of the worldwide economic Recovery continuing this year?

Posted on January 2, 2016 at 11:19 AM Comments comments (16)
The chances are pretty decent of the worldwide economic Recovery continuing this year, with the promising possibility of enhancement.

Japan seems to have decided to continue its Stimulus, running at some $85 billion a month.  This is gigantic for the size of their population, and guarantees the highest standards of living in the world to all Japanese citizens, plus a growing influence around the world, where their capital is likely to foster growth and development.  For example, they have offered $35 billion to India for joint venture in developments of infrastructure, and this will certainly add to Japanese GNP.

India has done joint venture and co-operation treaties with Germany and France, to help develop some of the 100 new cities that Pradhanmantri Shree Narendra Modi announced at the beginning of 2015.  Since then, he has visited China and Russia, and is signing up co-operation and trade agreements with every likely nation, including many in Africa.  As a lot of Indians lived in Africa and grew up there, it seems India is taking an altruistic stance, wishing to repay with gratitude to their African brothers and sisters.  This is a laudable gesture, and will enable the inherent and huge potential growth that is in places such as Lagos and Zimbabwe. 

China too is extending its sphere of influence, Hon Xi Jinping visited so many nations and signing up trade and co-operation treaties.  I can imagine joy for all these nations, where they will have expertise been made available to them, together with the machinery and transportation to fully benefit from their resources as well as create infrastructure developments which they so badly need.  How can people not imagine dams, electricity, drinking water available on the doorstep, schools, dispensaries, hospitals, hotels, housing, tourists.....thriving economies....where God has blessed them with the rich fertile lands, mineral wealth, green vegetation, fragrant flowers, livestock to provide them plenty of milk.  Africa is most likely to come up with the most number of billionaires soon....or if not, at least top social entrepreneurs who will instead contribute to their lands through holding together and creating business enterprises which serve the communities.  If not dollar billionaires, these will be the enlightened spiritual billionaires who will do great good for their communities....at once, their people will have increasing standards of living.  If the local African banks can back these entrepreneurs, they can create the development and wealth and growth that is the potential.  I pray all these people receive the rich blessings from God.

The United States has steadily grown from the dark days of the 2008 meltdown to today, where the economy seems to have been totally restored, and is growing, with confidence, more jobs, more enterprise, more homeowners, more cars......Now the Fed will just need to fix the Debt Ceiling (in March, it seems).  If they just expand the balance sheet to January 2017, the Obama administration will be home and dry, and all the senators and representatives can continue to collect their pay checks. 
The alternative policies of the Tea Party crowd or Republicans like Donald Trump would see Obamacare repealed, and poor students being sent home due to lack of a free lunch at school.  Those dark days caused due to sequestration are something that is best forgotten. 

I pray Hillary Clinton shall become elected as the President at November 2016.  Simply, it seems her destiny.  It would resonate with the times and the perceptions of people today, everybody seeking self-expression in a democracy.  Her election will enshrine the highest achievement in gender equality.  That is a truth the people will not wish to hide, nor deny themselves. The time has come for this Democrat to rise as the dove, and sit in the highest office in the land.

She was very successful as a peacemaker in the Middle East when she was the Secretary of State.  She has a natural gift for making peace agreements, and people trust her.  She is a natural ambassador for peace.  The world atmosphere will change when she becomes President, the whole tone of political relations will change, I believe, for the better.  It is up to the people, to honour her, and elect her to the White House. 

The One Trillion Eighty Billion Stimulus that the European Central Bank has rolled out has the promise of being extended beyond September 2016, as announced by their President Mario Draghi recently.  That will offer ample scope for upgrade and innovation by the companies in the Euro Area (and by extension Europe) to meet the challenges of these times.  On that note, the one thing the world is waiting for is the Juncker Plan.  With reforms under way, Greece must surely be ready for it.

The low Oil price has depleted the reserves of the oil exporting nations, and their budget deficits have been bigger than envisaged.  That suggests they will review their stance on cutting productions, and introduce some cuts before long; their stance has hurt their purses deeply, so some change may be expected.  Russia too could follow suit, unless they are happy to foster a recession at home.  Common sense would suggest oil price could begin to rise.....but when is only known to the bigwigs in OPEC and Russia.  It is past the post-panic stage; it seems it is a time when they must be regretting not cutting back production earlier.  And there would be no loss of face.  Economic reality seems pretty harsh.

May I wish you good health and joy for the New Year.

Kind regards,
Durudarshan H. Dadlani

(c) Copyright, but may be freely shared.

The macro shifts that could help Recovery

Posted on May 13, 2014 at 3:59 PM Comments comments (12)
The U.S. stock market has recovered and gone beyond where it was at the marking point in October 2008.  I hear that even Lehman Brothers continues to make huge profits today.

The job creation in America last month was a bright number, at 300,000.  My suggestion is if such a number was created for another five months, it would be reasonable to say that the economic Recovery has strengthened significantly. 

No, that would not neccesitate further tapering.  I am of the opinion that Dr Yellen needs to perhaps increase the QE by about $5 billion a month for the foreseeable future, until Recovery is complete. 
At $45 billion a month, there is a shortage for the meantime to fund the social aspect, and cutting would have a similar impact to the dreadful sequestration, when poor students were being sent home because there was no provision for a mid-day meal for them.  (Of course, the wisdom may be to ask them to bring their own lunch and provide them the opportunity for education, and keep them from turning to delinquency).

The U.S. housing market seems to have stabilised, but has still scope for improvement.  While foreign investors and hedge funds will avail themselves of these opportunities, the American households are still holding to wait and see that there is sustained recovery in the jobs market with prospects long-term before they start to buy houses.  I of course would suggest that they should consider now, when rates may be just edging up a little from historic highs and prices remain affordable.


On this side of the pond, in the United Kingdom, the housing market has just become stable.  I don't see much upside this year, in view of cut-backs in social security for housing.  A lot of the estate agents relying on government funding for housing have closed shop; and I see a few landlords putting up their big houses for sale.  The time of easy regular income for landlords seems to be now over.  It may be a good chance for the government to provide housing to deserving people on low incomes if the rents are actually downwards from the recent highs.  That would make sense to the government purse as well as tenants.

Other than that the economy seems to be quite robust, with creation of jobs and employment opportunities for many, together with en masse creation of apprenticeships under the guidance and friendly policies of the Cameron government, which has been one of the most people sensitive government the Tories have formed so far.  The multi-cultural cohesion and contented atmosphere is something to be appreciated. 

The Greeks have got their economy improving, with 10 years Bonds at a yield around 6 percent.  Not many moons ago, the yields were an exhorbitant 30 percent or so.  The generosity of the European Union in bailing them out played a tremendous part in helping this situation to be reached.  All European nations, flowers of the same bouquet, must rejoice.  Spain is also seeing signs of improvement, and now that I hear of KKR looking to fund some Spanish bank, I guess the economy there will start to improve quite rapidly.  The huge opportunity is there, for people who like the good climate and culture, to buy properties there perhaps for retirement, and even start businesses there, which could be a way to create jobs in Spain. 

As governments adjust their policies to allow more immigration, especially to parts which are sparsely populated, more young blood can settle and rejuvenate the economies of the advanced nations.  The ageing populations need looking after, and the young immigrants would be happy to come and work hard and pay their taxes, buy houses, cars, books, TVs, etc, etc.  The economies would pick up.  That will I believe be the second leg of Recovery.

I believe the future is very bright, as Recovery will turn to Prosperity, which could be even within six months.  At least I pray for that.

Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.




Light a candle....

Posted on September 24, 2013 at 5:10 AM Comments comments (1)
The economic news seems pretty positive all round, for continued worldwide economic Recovery.  India of course is out of sync on the benchmark interest rate, but it is a dynamic economy where the leadership are a little bit too cautious to accelerate growth.  For the moment it seems it will just motor along steadily, and blaming the high inflation on the scarcity of onions, which they are plentifully exporting.
 
The Greek economy seems to be on the mend, with a secondary surplus expected. With a nation with a population of 20 million and a large area, perhaps they need to encourage people who enjoy farming.  The potential must be huge with good climate, abundance of water and good weather as well. 
 
The situation in Spain seems pretty positive too, with a growth of 0.2 percent expected for the second quarter.  The benefits of creating jobs and filling up the empty housing, additionally with putting more buses on the roads to service secluded areas more frequently, will surely add to the growth.  Blessed with good weather and friendly people, I believe there is huge potential for continued growth in Spain.
A Latin version of Hollywood and Bollywood must surely be a possibility, with intercontinental co-productions?
 
Germany, well the situation seems so good, with Mme Angela Merkel back in the driving seat.
 
As regards the U.S., the talk of taper seems both promising and cautionary.  As Treasury Minister Jack Lew has suggested, the Debt Ceiling issue needs addressing quite soon.  The talk to me seems like a tapered candle, or a washer to be tapered on a lathe...I suppose Mr Bernanke will suggested what will need to be done.  The debt ceiling fix of a $1.45 Trillion in August 2011 was a job well done, adding to the money supply and creating the cash flow that has translated into so many jobs, a pick up in the housing market, and continued growth in the US economy, creating heatmaps of happiness for so many more people.  The stockmarkets and the banks seem in robust health, creating a huge pool of capital that will service the needs of people as and when they need to borrow and spend.  Cash rich companies like Apple attest to that fact. 
 
What would be great would be perhaps the creation of 500,000 jobs per month on a costing of $7 billion per month.  If that much additional capital was infused into the system by way of the taper, that would be just great.  Five years after the collapse of October 2008, the economic systems seem in much better shape, with strong financial institutions and safeguards in place.  A steady worldwide Economic Recovery seems to have been achieved, through co-operation and understanding of nations and the grace of God.  In celebration and to continue with Recovery, the world counts on seeing the Republicans and the Democrats in Washington support a cordial agreement, and light a new candle to Prosperity.
 
Ladies and gentlemen, you may step up to the alter, and light the candle that will add substance to the drams of humanity.
 
Amen.
 
(written by Duru-darshan)
 

Thanks for visiting my website.

Posted on September 21, 2013 at 6:09 AM Comments comments (5)
Thanks for visiting my website and reading my blog.  I hope you found something interesting.
 
Life is fun, with demands on time in so many directions.
 
Thursday I went to the Community Centre in Cricklewood.  Every Full Moon, they do prayers to Satnarayan Swami and Mata Laxmi.  It is a tradition we Sindhis have followed for generations, to pray to God and Goddess to give us peace in the household, and prosperity in our business affairs.
 
Later I visited the Southbank Centre, attracted there by the exhibition of her Picasso like painting by
Sangeeta Roshni Babani (she is an inspired painter from Mumbai, and she's Sindhi too, so I thought I'll
pay there a visit).
 
Sangeeta hadn't obtained her visa, and therefore could not be there.  Other artists from India exhibited
their creations alongside a few of Sangeeta's paintings. 
 
Particularly I liked a table whose top opens in segments like a fan, and this is adorned by mirrors.
This is by Yamin Mohiuddin from Hyderabad.  I can see such a piece adorning some young one's bedroom or even a hairdressing salon.  It would look good in a media company's foyer. 
 
If you like genuine teak furniture, like a chair crafted like black petals, or a palm made of teak, and don't mind paying about £800 for such items, Firdos Furnishers of Nagpur have several pieces on display.
 
An English idea that seemed to catch everyone's eye was Gerrad the Second.  This is a folding dog that looks like an inspired work of origami, with 188 sections to unfold and paste together very very carefully with Uhu glue.  The small ones sell for £20, and are limited editions of 500.  Fair enough.  They have decorative prints of dollar notes, piping, mascots, newspaper cuttings and so on, like industry or sector or indeed national mascots.The large ones, including one made of black wool decorated with harlequin squares, well, those will become collector's items, starting in an auction in 2014 at £1,000.  Absolutely grand.  Made by Liam from Liverpool.
 
 #####################################sangeeta############################################
 
Today I missed going to the Millionaire Mentors Bootcamp at the Hilton, London Bridge.  There is a free general entrace, generously hosted by Raymond Aaron, the bestselling author.  Problem is, it starts at 9 am on Saturday and Sunday.  Just a bit too early to travel up there for me;  otherwise it seems an event worth attending.  Finishes at 6pm both days.  Bootcamp to give you quick fire ideas how to boot up your ideas and send them skyrocketing.
 
 
I am sure someone can suggest ideas to make my website and blog into a money minting machine.  Well, hold my hand and show me the way. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.

Germany a good model of employment

Posted on September 13, 2013 at 10:04 AM Comments comments (6)
It is good news in Europe, with purchasing managers indexes up and house prices up in United Kingdom.  The unemployment rate edging downwards to 7.7 percent from 7.8 previously does not cause concern about the interest rate in the near term.  The Bank of England's benchmark rate can remain at the record low 0.5 percent for the foreseeable future, perhaps another three years, until unemployment falls to 7 percent, which is the peg  Governor Mark Carney has indicated.
 
But suppose, just suppose, employment in Britain were to pick up, perhaps using the German model of creating jobs?  There, according to Euronews, the unemployment has fallen to 5.5 percent, mainly helped by creating what are called Mini Jobs.  These are jobs taken by newcomers and students, perhaps earning a few hundred Euros a month for a part time job, or a Mini Job.  There is no contract, no holiday pay, let alone anything towards a pension.  It has no minimum wage.  The rate is fixed between the employer and employee, and lasts as long as there is work, without any guarantee. 
This seems a smart way of creating jobs, and enabling people earn something.  It is an idea that could be copied in other countries, labour laws permitting.  
 
It seems a good way forward to beat the dole ques, and get peoples morale up.  This could eventually help balance the national books.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Hello, guys, wear your thinking caps on...and read my blogs.

Posted on September 9, 2013 at 4:48 AM Comments comments (2)
Good morning, everybody.
 
I note that a few readers have been reading my blog overnight, especially on topics like Quantitative Easing, the Euro.  The most popular blogs have been as follows, if you wish to read them too :-
 
1)What good would exiting the Euro do for Greece?
2) Would Quantitative Easing or Credit Easing help?
3) Where's the potential growth for the future?
4) Where's the chocolate I kept in the fridge?
5) You can sense the sense of duty Mr Obama has to America
6) What the mind of man can conceive and believe, it can achieve.
 
I imagine you will hear some impassioned debates on TV and the media in days to come.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 

Oil price is far too high, despite accomodative policies

Posted on August 8, 2013 at 3:29 AM Comments comments (6)
For a continuation of the worldwide economic Recovery, in my opinion the price of Oil is far too high  - both WTI and Brent, which hit parity recently and have been both in backwardation on the far futures contracts.
 
The holding of or reduction of benchmark rates in accommodative policies is brilliant, and the only way forward.  The Australian Reserve Bank, U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of England are setting the tone for continuation of Recovery.
 
Mr Raghuram Rajan has been appointed Governor at the Reserve Bank of India, and assumed his post there on 5th September.  In his name are coded the most fond Hindu wishes in Godhead, just as they chant Raghupati Ragav Rajaram.  Hope he will set policies to utilise the various fiscal tools he has at his disposal, and help renew expansionary growth in the Indian economy.  It is noted that he is a gregarious, media-friendly personality, so presumably the world will hear more about what he has in mind. 
 
Oil price at anything above $85 per barrel is too high, and will continue to slow down the world economies.  When people are unable to feed themselves and their children in Yemen and other places, most of the developing world I would surmise, it is time for the OPEC nations to pause and consider what would be best for everybody.  Growing unemployment in South Africa (over 25 percent) and other countries, where social security is not a state policy, does not indicate a robust world picture.  It is imperative that the Oil price be reduced, for continuation of worldwide economic Recovery, which in turn will be able to sustain infrastructure growth in the OPEC and other nations. 
 
Israel with an unemployment rate of over 25 percent could do with international goodwill for their technologically advanced products, and a peace in that region can only help bring the oil price down and help the economies in that region.  In a cooling off of tensions lies the way forward to peace and prosperity.
 
Enlightened souls who help govern the policies, the duty is yours to do the needful.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Wear a silly hat and drink a pinta milk a day

Posted on July 6, 2013 at 4:30 AM Comments comments (2)
What else?  It is wisdom from Wal-Mart chairman to wear a silly hat to lighten things up.  A light mood, some light music as well, lightens up the atmosphere and makes people optimistic and believe in the future, as everyone should.  If people learn from the past, live in the present, and look forward to the future with hope and rosy expectations, why, isn't it possible that that is precisely what we can bring into being? 
 
Bob Proctor in his book, You Were Born Rich, says that an acorn has a blueprint to grow into an oak tree.  When the acorn seed is planted, it develops roots and drinks up water (rather like a businessman drinks up the necessary knowledge to grow his business as he goes along).  Then, when it shows its head above ground, all the necessary energy that allows it to grow into an oak tree comes to it.  That is the natural law of attraction. 
 
Milk is plentiful in some parts of the world, but people don't seem to buy as much milk as they used to before, because it has gone up a few pence in price.  Compared to most other things, this nutritious and delicious drink is still one of the cheapest drinks available, and so wholesome.  I don't see why some supermarkets in England charge £1.50 for 4 pints when the corner shop charges £1.10 or £1.20 while other supermarkets charge a £1.00 - for the same size.  Couldn't they all try for some medium price, like £1.20 or £1.25, then all farmers, suppliers and distributors can make a fair living?  The Drink a Pinta Milk a Day poster campaign of the 1970s/80s is something I remember, and I was often encouraged to buy a pint and drink it with a straw at the corner shops.  What a delight!
 
So, as humanity and all living creatures (who humanity looks after) were born rich, it would be a sign of faith to believe in a bright future and yes, wear a silly hat and sing a song, and get some straws out and drink some milk or cream.
 
Wish you a happy Saturday and weekend.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

Period of Integration and Accomodative Policies

Posted on July 5, 2013 at 4:54 AM Comments comments (32)
It was fun listening to a talk by Tony Plummer, on the theories of the legendary American investor W.D. Gann, who is fabled to have made over $50 million dollars - a huge amount in the 1950s. 
 
Gann theory, which Mr Plummer has interpreted in his new book The Law of Vibration, suggests that there are four cycles : Shock, which the world saw in 2008, followed by Absorption of Shock, which is supposed to have ended in 2012, followed by Integration, which began in 2012/13 and is likely to take us all in 2015.
 
This period of Integration is typified by what has been confirmed by the new Bank of England Guvnor Mark Carney as well as the ECB Chairman Mario Draghi, that the banks will continue with an accommodative stance with regards to stimulus, i.e. the punch bowl will not be removed any time soon.
 
It would seem that that will indeed become the theme of the coming months and years, at all levels, personal, political, economic, cultural, national and international, according to my reading of the situation.  This is based on the rational trends that are in their infancy on the world stage. 
 
Look at the example of Turkey, where an all-inclusive accommodative stance has stabilised the situation there. 
 
Look at the situation in Egypt, where the military as guardians of the peoples' freedoms and economic well-being are supporting the new Interim President, who is a Chief Justice of many years standing and will follow policies which will benefit a wider democracy.  Here again, an accommodative stance by all people, including the Muslim Brotherhood supporters of Dr Mursi, will win the day, to ensure the smooth running of this great cultural nation, so that trading and tourism continues, and continues to provide the bread and butter which all people naturally need. 
 
In this period of Integration 2012/13 to 2015, an accommodative stance by central banks and political leaders will be the rational ways to continue worldwide economic Recovery, and God-willing peace prevails everywhere, which will then lead to a growing Prosperity. 
 
Please let me have your comments as usual.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
  

Forest fires...in Arizona

Posted on July 2, 2013 at 6:15 AM Comments comments (3)
The news of the forest fires in Arizona has been terrible, with deaths of 19 of the 20 elite firefighting force there.  Such are the tragedies which such brave men give their lives to, in the service of their communities, as part of their job.
 
The rising temperatures in various regions of the world, including the mid and west coast of USA, points to the urgent need for something to be done in thinning forests by punctually felling trees in a systematic fashion so that there is least contact between trees and would help prevent forest fires from catching on and spreading further.
 
If there were five trees in a row, and five rows of trees, then a suggestion would be to take out the first, third and fifth tree of the first row, and 2nd and 4th of the second row; then first, third and fifth of third row; and so on.  Draw a little diagram and see.  Such felling would not cause deforestation, and would in fact add to the fertility of that land, as fewer trees drink the water.  It would change the ecological system for the better, with more moisture in the air, improving humidity, and lessening the tinder-box stage which has caused such devastation in Arizona. 
 
Every year, at around this time of the year, forest fires are heard of in Greece, Australia, west coast U.S. and various places, with loss of houses and lives. 
 
My hope remains that the authorities in all such areas would make a concerted effort to thin the forests, and the central governments must allocate budgets and help in this cause.  Nationally and internationally, such initiatives and their implementation can only benefit all world communities.  They would make a much needed contribution to reducing global warming as well.
 
I close this with a prayer - May the souls of the brave Arizona firefighters rest in peace in Heaven.
 
Amen.
 
(written by Duru-darshan)