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Honest Information, Profitable Trading

Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

My Blog

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Netherlands, Kansas City, Kharkov.....Welcome, welcome!

Posted on October 2, 2013 at 8:11 AM Comments comments ()
It is that moment in time when the world knows the answers, yet some do not seem to.  For their narrow vested interests, they may be taking decisions which will adversely affect so many people.
 
Yes, point in question about the shutdown in the United States, affecting some 700,000 government employees who have been told not to turn up for work, because the two caucuses of the centrist Republican Party which is the U.S. Congress cannot agree the left with the right.  They would like concessions on many issues, which are not of prime importance today and bear some relevance to the great impending issue of the raising of the Debt Ceiling.  According to Mr Jack Lew, Secretary of State for the Treasury, the clock is expected to hit a top on 17th October, giving just about 15 days for the Congress to concentrate on this priority. 
 
The aggregate debt stands at a whopping $16.5 Trillion, but certainly that is not huge in comparison to the essence and integrity of the United States of America.  At last count, when the debt ceiling needed to be raised in August 2011, the Chinese Premier Hu Jintao as well as the Japanese leaders offered their continued support. 
 
The cash-flow in the system has enabled an ongoing Recovery, translating into much consumer confidence, demands on goods and services, and heatmaps of happiness across the world, in China, India, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Japan, Australia, Europe, Brazil, Venezuela, and every nation who trades, which includes all nations of the globe. 
 
Indeed it was a great gesture when the Federal Reserve opened the Open Window in Europe, enabling the Eurozone to borrow dollars and pump into their economies, creating much growth and momentum
in production and consumer confidence. 
 
There must be few people who do not see the benefits of a globalised economic powerhouse that is the world, where co-operation and trade between nations helps each nation produce its unique resources and exchange with the rest of the world.
 
I believe the world can confidently assume that the U.S. banks collectively have the wherewithal to underwrite the raising of the Debt Ceiling.  As Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan and other leading bankers meet with Mr Obama today, certainly that will be on the agenda of discussion. 
 
In August 2011 the U.S. banks collectively had over $1.45 Trillion, and enabled that raise.  It will be good news to hear what they may be willing to underwrite this time.  Certainly the money has swirled around the system, enabling people buy the houses and cars and television sets and sofa sets and iPads which they love, and swelled the coffers of companies such as Apple and Oracle and billionaire Carl Icahn.  All that is really needed is for such companies and people to continue to create more employment in the private sector, and for government to continue to serve the people effectively.
 
The lifting of the shutdown would be great, and would be welcome for people who are visiting America, so that their trips are joyful in seeing the monuments they have come to see. 
 
A rethink on what has led to the shutdown can only help the goodwill of America, and the prosperity of her own people.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 
 

Stimulus? Taper? Where we headed?

Posted on September 27, 2013 at 2:36 PM Comments comments ()
In his penultimate testimony recently, Federal Chief Ben Bernanke suggested that the QE measures had greatly helped the economy. 
 
The infusion of money did indeed stabilise the economy and create jobs on an on-going monthly basis, helping people buy autos and houses, and adding to consumer confidence in the U.S., which has become one of the fastest recovering nations post the 2008-crash. The QE measures introduced in August 2011 helped to propel the economy from a negative loss of confidence to a positive full of hope and promise and enterprise culture.  The QE measures helped to finance the government departments as well as the social net, and has got some of the pick-and-shovel jobs under way, although not as many as may have been envisaged. 
 
Secretary for the Treasury Jack Lew is characterised as pleading for action on the issue of the debt ceiling, but of course this issue cannot have escaped anyone's attention.  A logical time for resolution of this issue in somewhere mid to end October, when Mr Bernanke may be stepping down, having served his nation in a most admirable way.
 
The $40 billion a month stimulus under the first QE measure must have clocked up a trillion just after two years and one month.  The additional stimulus of $45 billion a month in buying of mortgage-backed securities has been in place for nearly a year, and that tots up another half trillion or so.  All told, the authorised stimulus which was the debt ceiling was around $1.45 trillion, plus a further $700 billion from banks and private or public concerns.  The money has swirled in the system and created much happiness for so many people, and sustained livelihoods and restored confidence, not only in the USA, but around the world.  The dark days were when diamond merchants in India were standing idle, because American men had stopped buying diamond rings for their fiancées.  The whole supply chain from South Africa to Antwerp to Tel Aviv felt the effect.  Thankfully, those days are gone, and we all have to thank the return to confidence that has enabled consumers believe in a good life and live with hope.  When people have received loans and mortgages, their purpose has been filled with joy.  May that continue for the foreseeable future, as hard work and enterprise turn into wealth, going round and serving more.  A growing circle of enterprise and industry in each nation has given added confidence to increased trade as well as growth at home.  When the global locomotive of growth drives along, it is music to the ears of people everywhere, be it China, India, the Middle East, Africa, or South America, not to forget Japan and Australia.  Growth and enterprise is good for the world, as each nation trades their unique resources, creating work and purpose, confidence and enterprise.   
 
The cash-flow that the stimulus measures provided have been a great blessing, creating many jobs, creating many livelihoods, helping many families survive and recover from the savage recession that beset the world, and with the creation of activity, opening of factories and workshops, improving purchase of goods both utilitarian and luxury, improved number of travellers and visitors globally, it seems the economies are set for further growth to Prosperity. 
 
Secretary of Treasury Jack Lew and colleagues will know what measures are necessary.  President Obama and House Speaker Boehner will ascertain what is necessary and prudent for continuation of the economic Recovery.  Positive developments on this with bi-partisan co-operation will herald the path to Prosperity.  Trusting in good judgement, no one should have concern. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

Fed Chief Bernanke on the Fiscal Cliff

Posted on July 18, 2012 at 7:23 AM Comments comments ()
Fed Chief Ben Bernanke has stated in the past that there will be a stimulus programme, should the circumstances require it, but so far it is an indication of the resilience of the US economy and the confidence people have that it has not been necessary.  If and when it is needed, it will be there, in short.
 
At his testimony on Capitol Hill recently, the Fed Chief proposed an elegant formula for continuation of Recovery by painting in a few brief words the scenario people would like to see averted. 
 
Mr Bernanke said that "Tax increases and spending cuts equal fiscal cliff, resulting in 1.25 million fewer jobs being created in 2013."
 
Therefore, the corollary, if there are no tax increases and job preservation or creation can be implemented, then that would result in avoidance of the fiscal cliff - i.e. a continuation of Recovery.
 
No matter who they may wish to see elected to the White House in November, the body politic on both sides of Washington must see the nobleness and necessity for bi-partisan co-operation to ensure that the above elegant formula has a positive glow for the good of all as a nation.
 
A slight downward correction in the price of Oil from current levels would ensure continuation of Recovery, worldwide.  When America sets the tone, other nations follow suit.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Stephanie Ruhle, CNBC interviewer

Posted on June 30, 2012 at 1:10 PM Comments comments ()
Stephanie Ruhle interviewed the multi-billionaire business magnate Eike Batista some time back.  I wrote up a snap shot of that interview and added my comments. 
 
Someone put the search phrase Stephanie Ruhle stockings.  Like most ladies, I guess she too enjoys wearing stockings, and men like to look at women in stockings, don't they?
 
However, I being male also wear stockings, the surgical variety, to improve circulation in my legs.
They improve the circulation, definitely, and take a little bit of effort to wear them.  Very worthwhile.
I have also written a blog on that subject, A Method for Swollen Legs.
 
You may care to read both blogs.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Why does it seem like such a shock?

Posted on June 28, 2012 at 1:58 PM Comments comments ()
Why does it seem like such a shock if JP Morgan has lost a few billions?  When someone trades, they can win or lose, so the shareholders should be glad they have been on the right side most of the time.
 
As to the Libor Rate fixing by some of the staff at Barclays, if they are trading you assume they will play by the rules but sometimes for purposes of showing off their power, some of the staff do make deals which when caught out are not according to the rules. How can any one person, even a CEO, be aware of exactly what is going on with regards to each employee?  It is a daunting task.  It is to Bob Diamond's credit that he helped to bring back to profitability an ailing giant. 
 
No-one of any integrity can condone the breaking of rules, which ensure fair play in the markets, but the concept that needs to be scrutinized is as to how much scrutiny can be done in real time, when people in dealing rooms make decisions that can sustain or break organisations or their customers.
 
That is my opinion anyway.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 

My posts this week, 22/6/12

Posted on June 22, 2012 at 3:17 AM Comments comments ()
Thanks for your visit to my blog and website, proving popular every week I'm glad to note.
The following were my posts, you may be interested to read them :-
 
  -  Happy Fathers Day
  -  Prayer for Peace in Syria
  -  Consolidation of Economic Recovery
  -  India Reserve Bank hesitant to deploy silver bullett
  -  Enough to feed the hungry, but it is wasted....
  -  Gurdas Sidhu, Forex maestro
  -  J P Morgan and Jamie Dimon
  -  A huge sigh of relief, now to work
  -  "Thank you for your two highly convoluted questions..."
  -  Return to calm waters.
 
Your comments and criticisms are always welcome.
 
Thanks and Kind Regards,
Duru-darshan
 
 
 
 
Mobile  07505 830518

J.P. Morgan and Jamie Dimon

Posted on June 19, 2012 at 12:46 PM Comments comments ()
 
J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon states that it costs the corporation $1 Billion a year to protect assets worth $350 Billion against risk of exposure to interest rate movements.  However, if the interest rates were to move higher, J.P. Morgan would make even more money.  Sounds like a very prudent hedging strategy. 
 
And their risk overseas is so nicely spread that any one country going wrong would not hurt J.P.Morgan's books to any effect.
 
CEO Jamie Dimon presides over a corporation with a winning and very sound strategy.  No wonder its stock is rising after his testimony.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 

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