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Honest Information, Profitable Trading

Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

My Blog

Blog

www.durudarshan.co.uk/blog

Posted on November 9, 2013 at 6:12 AM Comments comments ()
My thanks to the staff at these Search Engines for listing and indexing my website, and to Vistaprint for so beautifully hosting my website over last 28 months.  It has built from strength to strength, drawing many visitors each day. Thanks to all :
                        Stumbleupon
                        Google (the multi-trillion dollar brain)
                        Twitter  (tweet tweet to you)
                        LinkedIn (professional and so well defined)
                        j.mp
                        Yahoo (book readers love you)
                        Bing (looks like people like spy thrillers)
                        and, just for good measure, a few porno sites, harmless fun is okay I'd say.
 
My blogs being read overnight are as follows :
  -  The ECB's 25 basispoint cut
  -  Stephanie Ruhle, CNBC interviewer 
         (She's actually an anchor for Bloomberg, working in New York)
  -  This is time for buyers to support Bangladesh factories
          (American companies have done so, may blessings be unto them)
  -  Thomas Sugrue's review of The Last Great Prophet
  -  The Bank of America share price.
 
----------------------------------------------LIZZIE--------------------------------------------------------------
 
Yesterday I heard the news that China has experienced good growth and far from a hard-landing which people feared it is experiencing very sound growth, with PMI figures up and increasing. 
 
One commentator has stated that China has several trillion dollars of reserves for investment, so I imagine the worldwide boom can continue.  Today I heard that 80 percent of visas being taken for visits to Portugal are for Chinese property investors.  This way, all economies with an open-door policy to encouraging property ownership and immigration would benefit from the Chinese wherewithal to sustain growth and Recovery. 
 
If the Chinese sources are suggesting U.S. is looking for $561 Billion for next six months, it augers well for the U.S. that the jobs numbers were pretty good and growth potential is inherent in America, and it would be very probable that China would support such borrowings and support, as they have done in the recent past. 
 
The luxury sector may start to rebound in China, who continue to buy Rolls Royce cars and jets as never before, and with the refocus on domestic consumption and increasing exports from China, it is apparent that the Honourable Xi Jinping is inspiring policies that will help the Chinese people achieve higher standards of living. 
 
For stability and optimism into the near future, what more could the world wish for?
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Stimulus, Housing, Wall Street and Obamacare...

Posted on October 30, 2013 at 5:30 PM Comments comments ()
The news from the Federal Reserve that it expects of maintain the Stimulus at $85 billion a month in bond purchases should have been great news for the markets, yet they headed slightly lower.  The fact that there was no mention of the sequester was a bonus.  The damper was I believe the news that Senator Paul is prepared to veto the appointment of Ms Janet Yellen to head the Fed.  It seems the tea-party Republicans have been having a crack at bringing down the government for the last three and a half years, and they are trying to give it another go.  Ultimately, it seems that good common sense will prevail in the good of the nation, and Ms Yellen may yet take control of the spigot and give everyone some punch for the New Year.  At least the majority of analysts at CNBC hold that view, and people are expecting the markets to strengthen further : will the DOW test 16,000 before the year-end?
 
The housing figures were disappointing, but you cannot blame the individual homebuyers.  The air of uncertainity created by the previously on-going sequesteration cuts, then the partial government shutdown, then the delay in agreement on the debt ceiling raise, must have compounded to weigh down sentiment.  Yet it seems the hedge funds have purchased lot of housing stock, and put it into the rental sector, and house prices have been buoyed up.  This may be good for the hedge funds, but for the individual homebuyers it means having to begrudgingly pay rent instead of a mortgage, but a roof is a roof anyhow, and thank God for investors who have the wherewithal to buy and rent them out.
 
Once the air is clear, and assuming the punchbowl is replenished, hopefully until the end of 2014, then housing Recovery should gain some stability.  For the individual homebuyers, it will be a great point to join in in the party.
 
Under Mr Obama and the Fed's accommodative policies, Wall Street has done well, now reaching for a record high.  Money has been invested in equities, turned to working capital for the corporations, income for investors, and built up a substantial cushion for the pension pots and investments.  So far, it has been a good reservoir of capital, and providing confidence is maintained, will continue to be so. 
 
What maintains the house should be good for everybody.  Of course one or two senators may not care much. I hope they will not inflict a lot of pain on the system as a whole by sticking to their guns too rigidly.  The climate is one for accommodative policies of co-operation, so that the world may avoid another recession soon after the longest one in recent history is hardly over.  Just for the sake of humanity, they have to rethink the consequences of their stance.
 
Obamacare is a great idea if it were like the National Health Service in Britain; but it seems the way Medicaid is being expanded to cater for the people who were previously without cover is placing substantial burdens on the system.  Quite a lot of people are having to pay much more then they did previously in order for additional people to get cover.  This just does not seem fair.  Perhaps a parallel stand-alone system of walk-in centres could be sponsored by the government to cover people who did not previously have cover, so that those who were happy with Medicaid could possibly be happy with them once again.  As I have remarked previously in my column, the NHS in Britain evolved for 40 years from the Poor Laws of 1907 to Royal Charter in 1947.  Such a grandoise system cannot evolve in a short few years, and the teething troubles with the glitch in the computers may be the least of the problems.
 
All things being equal, 30th November is not far away, for people to see how Obamacare is rolled out.
I would have suggested even more patience so that a balanced, truly Affordable Health Care may evolve for the United States. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

Narayani Namastute!

Posted on October 19, 2013 at 12:21 PM Comments comments ()
When I get so many readers from Kansas City to my blog, I think Narayani Namastute! Narayani Namastute!  Yes, on the auspicious  day of Full Moon, as it was yesterday, and with the conjunction of the debt ceiling raise decision in the U.S., I was wondering what the Kansas City Fed Chairman Narayanan Kocharlakota was thinking.  I haven't read anything in the press, but he is normally an advocate of quantitative easing with deliberate measure.  In this regard, again, it is early days to see a ballpark figure of the debt ceiling raise, and for the 4 months of January 15th, Congress has announced that the U.S. government will be fully funded.  Their Comptroller is likely to know what that means, and how much money will continue to flow into the system until then. 
 
In the meantime, it must be a great relief that the shutdown has been lifted.  Never again, I can hear everyone saying.  People have lost income and business, tourists have suffered not being able to visit monuments and museums they may have especially travelled over the States to visit.  The short but very long 14 days have cost the U.S. dear, to the tune of some $24 Billion in lost revenue and productivity.  The lesson is clear, such a shutdown over an extended period would cause the economy to slow down, and the economy to lose something on the GDP measure.  It is like an economy in good shape being told to trim down.  Never again, I hope.
 
As to the ballpark figure, my suggestion is $1.32 Trillion over 20 months, which works out at $66 Billion per month.  After payment of some $60 Billion per month for the social security net, that leaves $6 Billion per month for enterprise and job creation.  Jobs ranging in pay from $20 or $30,000 per annum to $250,000 per annum could be created, perhaps 300,000 or 400,000 per month.  And he presto! within six months the U.S. would have whizzed on from Recovery to Prosperity. 
 
But that's just a ballpark figure I am suggesting.  At current Stimulus of $85 Billion per month, maybe it could be different.  In view of the regime of Abenomics in Japan and their Stimulus of $85 Billion per month, the per capita differential is in Japan's favour.  It is a theme to be explored over the coming days. 
 
I am glad to note the global economic order has been stabilised after the agreement in the U.S. on the debt ceiling raise.  As they all enjoy four months of relative calm and stability until 15th January and then to 7th February, I trust they will have this in mind and not give everyone, including themselves, a tough time. 
 
Certainly, the costings and implementation of Obamacare is something they can review and see how technically it would be best implemented.  The beginnings of the British NHS took about 40 years in gestation, before it received the blessing as a Royal Charter in 1947 under the kind King George.  Obamacare is by comparison in its infancy, and needs to be tweaked and explored before this very sound principle can bring benefits to the citizens and the nation.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 

"Obedience"

Posted on August 17, 2013 at 5:35 PM Comments comments ()
Brothers and Sisters, I have been asked to give a brief talk on the subject of Obedience. 
 
This is a subject which is very relevant, for late in life, I have found that it gives joy to parents to find their offspring are obedient.  By this I imply that children listen to parents' guidance, and do what would find approval in the parents' hearts and minds.  And so it must be with our Heavenly Father.  And what can be more joyful than to know that we do according to God's wishes, which are known to each one of us according to the dictates of our nature and our conscience.  Just as when we are mature and realize that it makes our parents happy if we do that which they would approve, that we are dutiful and obedient children, similarly, I realise that our God in Heaven looks upon with pleasure when we do what he would have us do.
 
There are rich rewards as fruits of obedience, in the form of good health, good life, good guidance, good nature.  To see what our elders have found true, I read President Lorenzo Snow saying that  "ever feeling grateful for our earthly being, and more especially for the Spirit of God we have received through obedience to the Gospel."  That is really a message of good faith, that we receive the Spirit of God in our hearts when we are obedient.  That is such a precious gift.
 
For such approval and such guidance, the method of following the Gospel is quite straightforward.  When I was 13, the love of Christ found a place in my heart, and somehow automatically I have most of my life followed the gospel, without consciously thinking about it.
 
When Jesus was on Earth, a lawyer asked Him "Master, what is the great commandment in the law?"
 
Our Saviour said unto him : "Thou shalt love the Lord thy God with all thy heart, and all thy soul, and all thy mind."
 
That impressed me greatly at age 13, and it has been a great comfort and delight to me, in good times as well as  when I have faced difficulties in life.
 
And the second commandment, "Love thy neighbour as thyself" is a great promoter of understanding of our fellow human beings.  If I am fair to myself, I cannot be mean towards my neighbour if he says a few nasty things about me, after all, unless I don't love myself and would not excuse any shortcomings on my part.  Before I developed this realization, I always took on faith what our Saviour said : "Love thine enemy".  I realized that this is a great formula to save our hearts from burningwith hatred towards anyone who has wronged us.  We don't call Christ our Saviour for nothing.
 
Those who follow these two great commandments are probably likely to love themselves so much and have such a pleasant life, they are likely to follow the rest of the ten commandments even if they were not aware of them.  That I do believe. 
When one is absorbed in living a joyful life in the assurance of receiving the Spirit of God in one's heart here on earth, and today, not some date in the future, then one  simply cannot do ill or fall prey to temptations.  I simply would not wish to have God disapprove of any of my actions, I have such love and respect for our Heavenly Father. 
 
I share my testimony and ask for God's blessings for continued guidance in the name of Jesus, our teacher and Saviour.
 
Amen.
 
(written by Duru-darshan
Melchizedek Priest, LDS Ilford)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Stockmarket falls, now what?

Posted on August 16, 2013 at 7:09 PM Comments comments ()
It seemed the stockmarkets had topped, and people were willing to take out some profits.  Equally, it seemed there was fresh money waiting to be invested, especially with promise of low interest rates for the foreseeable future in Europe, U.S., Australia and Japan, as well as China, all of which are using policies to generate further growth. 
 
The weak 0.1 percent GDP growth recorded in the second quarter in Eurozone has certainly helped the preceding period not being classified a recession, but the growth is very weak nevertheless, and demands continued stimulus with low interest rates.
 
The Bank of England's Guvnor Mark Carney has suggested an accommodative policy, indicating a low rate would obtain until such time as the unemployment falls to 7 percent.  This is a mixed blessing, as the government would prefer to see the rate fall faster but at the same time a prolonged period of a low rate is good for boosting the economy, as it generates growth.  All that really remains to be seen is the local banks loan the money out to entrepreneurs, start-ups, traditional small businesses seeking to expand capacity and such enterprises.  Britain's bankers will have to be just as willing to lend venture capital as the reputed bankers across the pond if Britain is to emulate the growth that has been created in the U.S. in the last four years.  As they say, money is inert matter and has life breathed into it when it circulates, giving people a living, fulfilling their dreams, going round and coming back with interest.  That is how wealth becomes created, utilizing what God has given in the form of farming and resources, to which is added human ingenuity and creativity, producing goods and services that have particular value and becoming marketable.  How kind God is, the bankers must appreciate and help the cause of humanity in their endeavours by lending money to them, so they can buy houses, cars, trucks, vans, iPods, cooking utensils, giant TVs, etc, etc.  Surely they would like to see people prosper?
 
The tepid movements in the stockmarkets today seem to suggest that the profit taking or jitters may be over.  Despite continued bad news of clashes in Egypt, the markets were quite stable.  It seems the conference called in Europe next week to address this issue by the European Union is probably likely to consider curtailment of aid to Egypt.  The U.S. has continued in a generous spirit not to have touched on this topic, hoping the situation there will be resolved peacefully in a short period.  Hopefully the Egyptian leadership and the people of Egypt will value this generosity, and try to reconcile their differences and work out a formula to appease both sides and let peace rule in their midst. 
 
People seeing dead bodies being carried to a makeshift morgue were lamenting 'Haram, haram' - meaning they did not expect death when their relatives had just gone to protest peacefully. 
I pray that God inspires the people to listen to the voice of common sense and reconcile their differences, and come to a solution that is just for all. 
 
I pray for peace in Egypt.
 
Ameen.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

What's happening with the economic news?

Posted on August 6, 2013 at 10:08 AM Comments comments ()
Recently I wrote about the Mormon church, about their production of a spiritual musical called Truth shall prevail, being staged at the Chorley, Preston temple in Lancashire.  My blog had over 1600 reads, mainly from Hongzhou in China.  Thank you, dear readers.
 
At the moment the most alarming news is from Zimbabwe, where President Mugabe has been re-elected, amidst complaints that the election has been rigged.  His comeback has been with the announcements of implementing policies of nationalisation of mining and natural resources companies.  Mr Mugabe obviously does not believe in free-market economics, nor does the devout Catholic believe in forgiveness, which he and inter-alia his nation received after he took over the white peoples' farms and handed them out to his cronies and their clans.  A nation that was once the bread basket of Africa has reduced itself to a state of constant shortages of food in the supermarkets, due to neglect of a farming sector that has lost its efficiency;  and loss of credibility overseas which have hampered imports.  Just like Zimbabwe produced the Billion Dollar notes and failed to appreciate that their currency cannot have the status of a world reserve currency, so now President Mugabe... but wait, this devout Catholic and clever student and man of the world will surely not fail to realize that nationalising assets belonging to international companies will lose international goodwill towards his nation.  And while it may be very profitable in the short term, in the long term it would be like taking a slow poison.
I pray President Mugabe's  good sense will prevail and he will not decide on such a brutal policy. I hope this man who likes to be portrayed on his country's postage stamps in the manner of a sovereign, follows policies which will leave his country a legacy where they can trade and interact with the rest of the world as a free market economy, for years to come.   Let there not be a time when the nation once again degenerates into a period of stupor and complacency, like recently when so many years were lost due to loss of goodwill abroad and lack of scientific know-how in the country. 
 
The kind gift of globalisation has been the awareness of the spirit that only with co-operation and fairness in dealings can all the nations prosper, by developing their natural resources and exchanging them with others on a fair basis.  To punish the intermediaries of such development, the international companies who operate within the boundaries and jurisdiction of every nation, would not be a welcome gesture.
 
Mr Mugabe's pronouncements have caused market jitters in the short term.  Hopefully he will heed the wise counsel of his Ministers and allow the development of his nation's enterprises continue with international know-how, expertise and capital. 
 
I have many friends from Zimbabwe at the church, and I wish them and their President well.  I hope Mr Mugabe reads my words, and heeds the advise I offer.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

Could the Himalayan tsunami have been averted?

Posted on July 22, 2013 at 5:30 PM Comments comments ()
Thank you for visiting my blog and website, visitors from India with this question.  It will be a question of debate as to whether such an occurrence could have been tamed or averted, through metaphysical means or somehow or perhaps simply by not having removed the temple where the Shakti was said to have been established for many hundreds of years.  The Shakti of Kalimata. 
 
There is a strong belief among those who worship that Shakti of Kalkamata that Her temple should not have been moved.  There were learned people who had also concurred with that view.  Yet somehow the ultra-scientific minds are inclined to push the boundaries.  What has gone cannot be undone, so much damage occurred, so many lives were lost, and so many many more people are left homeless and with meagre means in the aftermath of this calamity. 
 
All that I would add to this debate is this : Yes, we must always respectfully observe religious inclinations of our culture, and not proceed with something if we are forewarned of the consequences.  This is not superstition, but paying homage and heed to the One who has made it all. 
 
A time will come when India will develop much further, and tap into all the possibilities of geothermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power.  Certainly a great need is there, and all tasks will be made easier and large-scale infrastructure feasible with added power capacity, that cannot be denied.  But thorough consultations should be made, and consideration given to any concerns.  It would be better to err on the side of caution than to proceed and then realise the disasterous effects.
 
The government faces this extra challenge of rehousing all these sad homeless people, and providing means of sustainance.  This is the sort of calamity that provides a challenge for any government, but it seems the able UPA under Dr Manmohan Singh-ji is doing all it can to help people survive and relocate.
The 10,000 troops and volunteers deployed in the rescue effort did a heroic job and deserve the nation's thanks.
 
I pray for the well-being of the survivors of the tsunami, and send them my brotherly love.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.

Detroit filed for Chapter 9 bankruptcy.

Posted on July 19, 2013 at 10:39 AM Comments comments ()
Mismanagement and corruption are two words that some reports on TV seem to suggest as possible causes of the neglect and decline of Detroit, leading today to a quickie filing of Bankruptcy.
A sad state for any community, sadder still when it has the towering GM headquarters building there.
There was a time when kids the world over associated the name Detroit with motor car production, or simply with great looking motors, the sort of cars we all wished to drive one day.  What happened to those beautiful Chevvys and Corvettes, those beautiful cars?  What happened to the whole car manufacturing industry?  What happened to the people who worked there, what happened to the houses, lying today in their tens of thousands, abandoned, neglected, derelict?
 
It seems a debt burden of $20 billion, which the municipality today cannot repay, and a neglect over a couple of decades has led today to this sad bankruptcy.
 
A programme of regeneration must materialise, surely, to put Detroit back on its feet, perhaps even put Detroit back in peoples' affections. 
 
It would definitely take the will of government to put some money into this economy, and the vision of enlightened entrepreneurs, who could probably see Detroit as a great opportunity to rebuild.  Money plus the vision of someone (I know such a person is there, but I shall not pre-empt by banding a name, although if you look in the top 100 entrepreneurs in America, you will probably see who fits the bill) will put the life back into Detroit. 
 
When houses became habitable, the people become hospitable, when a New Industry settles in Detroit, wealth will be created, wealth will grow, and life will be breathed into this neglected town.  Hope springs eternal in the human heart, that I do believe, as do the guys playing netball in the streets there.
For the regeneration of Detroit, I pray. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

What has Utah to recommend it? Everything

Posted on July 9, 2013 at 5:43 PM Comments comments ()
I have just returned from a reception held to host the Governor of Utah, Gary Herbert, at Dechert llp's spacious offices in Queen Victoria Street, EC4.
 
I learnt a few things about Utah that tells me it is a very business friendly and enjoyable place to work in, live in or visit. 
 
Utah, together with Dakota and Texas, are the fastest growing states in the U.S, and of the three, Utah is the only one with an economy diversified in seven sectors (Dakota and Texas are mainly concentrated on Energy). 
 
Financial Sector, Aerospace and Defense, Software, are big number producers for Utah, which has kept businesses taxation low for the last 15 years, and has an impressive GDP growth of 4 percent.  It has five national parks, ski slopes, the famous church in Salt Lake City, places of historical interest. 
 
Talking to Governor Herbert, I realized that he and his administration have allowed a pro-growth citizen-friendly philosophy that naturally creates growth.  Activity and consumption create wealth and support a successful economy.  There is something to emulate about the leadership and governance in Utah, I believe.
 
Governor Herbert mentioned he had recently visited Ramallah, so I asked him what were the three  things they need there to create peace and economic growth.  "Eighty five percent of the people in Ramallah want to live peacefully and get along with the rest of the world."  Is there something the rest of the world community can do to help them?  "Yes; investment and aid and trade". What else?
"Good leadership.  A people need a leader like they need a king.  But they don't need any king; they need a good king, a righteous king."  The Guvnor and his delegation had talks with Mr Haddad there, who must be a good leader, representative of his people, for the visitors from Utah to engage in talks with him. 
 
In a nation which has donkey carts for transport, and a small fridge is a prized possession, can one imagine what it would do to create a wherewithal to provide Gaza and the West Bank with fridges, cars (which are plentiful in the developed countries), and help with building their infrastructure, so life for the people there can improve?  As people see such gestures of help and co-operation, their hearts will listen that they too are of the same family as the people of Isaac and Ishmael, of Israel and the twelve tribes of North Africa (which are the modern twelve rich and powerful kingdoms in the Middle East).
I imagine some good gesture for that region following on from the visit of these worthy men, who are the representatives of the spirit of Christ, of the Mormon Church (officially known as the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints).
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan
 
 
 
 

Period of Integration and Accomodative Policies

Posted on July 5, 2013 at 4:54 AM Comments comments ()
It was fun listening to a talk by Tony Plummer, on the theories of the legendary American investor W.D. Gann, who is fabled to have made over $50 million dollars - a huge amount in the 1950s. 
 
Gann theory, which Mr Plummer has interpreted in his new book The Law of Vibration, suggests that there are four cycles : Shock, which the world saw in 2008, followed by Absorption of Shock, which is supposed to have ended in 2012, followed by Integration, which began in 2012/13 and is likely to take us all in 2015.
 
This period of Integration is typified by what has been confirmed by the new Bank of England Guvnor Mark Carney as well as the ECB Chairman Mario Draghi, that the banks will continue with an accommodative stance with regards to stimulus, i.e. the punch bowl will not be removed any time soon.
 
It would seem that that will indeed become the theme of the coming months and years, at all levels, personal, political, economic, cultural, national and international, according to my reading of the situation.  This is based on the rational trends that are in their infancy on the world stage. 
 
Look at the example of Turkey, where an all-inclusive accommodative stance has stabilised the situation there. 
 
Look at the situation in Egypt, where the military as guardians of the peoples' freedoms and economic well-being are supporting the new Interim President, who is a Chief Justice of many years standing and will follow policies which will benefit a wider democracy.  Here again, an accommodative stance by all people, including the Muslim Brotherhood supporters of Dr Mursi, will win the day, to ensure the smooth running of this great cultural nation, so that trading and tourism continues, and continues to provide the bread and butter which all people naturally need. 
 
In this period of Integration 2012/13 to 2015, an accommodative stance by central banks and political leaders will be the rational ways to continue worldwide economic Recovery, and God-willing peace prevails everywhere, which will then lead to a growing Prosperity. 
 
Please let me have your comments as usual.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
  

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