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Honest Information, Profitable Trading

Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

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What would happen if there were no Debt Ceiling raise?

Posted on October 8, 2013 at 3:41 PM Comments comments (6)
Each one can imagine some kind of bleak scenario, in the event that the Debt Ceiling was breached and there was no agreement in Washington between the Republicans and Democrats. 
 
At the moment, the world watches in exasperation as the two sides debate and give a very mixed impression.  As they gleefully remain entrenched as to what they will concede or not, the time is ticking away to 17th October. 
 
Japan and China have wondered at the shutdown, and why it is not being lifted swiftly.  In those nations, such a situation, were it ever to arise, would be reversed as a matter of honour and in the interests of not impeding the economic engine.  It would be done swiftly with a command from the leadership. 
 
In the U.S., by contrast, as is the nature of democracy, every fine detail has to be debated.  That is fair enough, but time is running out nevertheless.
 
In the event that there is no Debt Ceiling raise by 17th October, one can envisage a bleak picture where government will not be able to pay its employees, which of course also includes the Representatives and Senators who have defended very narrow corners and brought about the current shutdown and the furloughs, disrupting peoples' daily routines and reducing their paypackets.  Of course this would have an impact on the economy overall were it to continue for any length of time.  Just over a week has gone, and the mood on the stockmarket has been subdued.  If it were to continue for consecutive 21 days, probably it would cause a disheartening mood, which would dampen the feelings and start a down-turn.
 
Secretary of State for the Treasury Mr Jacob Lew has said there would be about $30 billion for cash-flow, in a 'four trillion dollar enterprise'.  That may be sufficient for 12 days, which would take everyone to 29th October.  If there was no agreement by then, can you imagine anything but the stock markets falling, a fear factor and a lack of confidence, people being laid off by private enterprises as well.  I would bet the Oil price would plummet, demand would be so drastically reduced.  The domino effect would be worldwide, nothing short of alarming.  It would be like looking at Greece in its recent dark days, only the U.S. is a much bigger economy, with over 16 times the population of Greece.  Not only that, what is the sovereign currency of a well-functioning economy and the Reserve Currency of the world would have its standing compromised. 
 
I trust they have some arrangement in place, whether by bi-partisan co-operation, putting aside for the moment the other issues which are dividing them at the moment, and agreeing to a Debit Ceiling raise by 17th October; or, arrangements in place to allow the President to exercise his prerogative under the 14th Amendment and sign in an amount that would be prudent and necessary. 
 
Mr Obama has mentioned that the debt burden has been reduced by Two and a Half Trillion in the last few years, so his Administration's policies have been productive and praiseworthy, pulling the whole economy out of a severe recession and creating a nation with huge heatmaps of happiness, which have  provided growing confidence worldwide.  The sooner the uncertainity regarding the Debt Ceiling raise is removed, the better will it be for the whole world.  America's well-wishers and creditors alike would feel good, a positive mood of certainity and predictability for future growth would continue worldwide.
 
The last Debt Ceiling raise in August 2011 has proved efficacious, and so there would be universal approval and applause for such a measure this once also.  Those who believe in doing right by their fellow humanbeings, let them also do right by the currency that says 'In God We Trust'. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

A Spirit Phone, Mr Edison?

Posted on June 10, 2013 at 4:08 PM Comments comments (5)
You have to appreciate how many times the name of the Wizard of Menlo Park comes up with so many inventions - the incandescent light bulb, the motion picture, the telephone.  Having found a means of supplying people with electricity, Edison also invented the meter so he could charge people for the supply thereof.
 
In 1920s, he said he was working on an apparatus to communicate with the people In the spirit world.
 
Just as we can communicate with our friends with the aid of a mobile phone, is it not possible to communicate with God or with the spirit world through something that is beyond such technology - the human spirit.  I would suggest a finely tuned human being is a spirit phone.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 

Hazaar Salaams and a 21 gun salute for President Pranab Mukherjee

Posted on July 25, 2012 at 5:32 AM Comments comments (4)
Pranab Mukherjee chose the auspicious time of 11:38 to be sworn in as the new President of India.
 
He took the Oath of Office, pledging to uphold the Constitution and faithfully serving the Republic and people of India.
 
Not for Pranabda the speaking to the electorate every five years at the time of voting, but speaking for the people all the time while in office, to propel growth with a unity of purpose, to speak always in the peoples' interest.
 
"Peace is the first ingredient of Prosperity."
 
"Education is the alchemy that can bring India its next Golden Age."
 
"We must raise the poor, so that the word 'poverty' is erased from our dictionary."
 
Dr Mukherjee sees his high office as the privelege of the First Citizen, its principal function being as the custodian of the Republic's freedoms and equalities. Secularism must be upheld and guarded, the equal freedom to every faith.  "The poor must feel that they are in the narrative in the rise of India."  There must be economic equity.
 
"What we have achieved so far is as nothing to what will be achieved by generations to come."
 
The outgoing President, Smt Pratibha-devi Singh Patil, took the National Salute at the Rashtrapati Bhawan, the Presidential Palace on Raisina Hill.  From here now as his new residence, Pranab-da will serve his Republic, "with penitence and accountability" for the next five years.
 
He is hailed as the new President by the body politic and people of India, entrusted to be fair and impartial to all the citizens.  This was his cherished ambition, and he will serve his people well.
 
Congratulations!
 
Duru-darshan
 
 
 
 
 

"He is Divine, he does not lie..."

Posted on July 12, 2012 at 2:31 PM Comments comments (32)
Such is the telepathic transfer I received this morning.  Later, I had confirmation of that.  Dear lady, I am honored by the trust you show in my words.
 
Professing no such powers, I however do my best to comment on the markets, and opining away, as
I find guidance when I sit at the computer and bash away at the keys.
 
Anyway, my Blogs over the last 7 days have been as follows :-
 
  -  Bank of England adds £50 billion Q.E.
  -  Money, work and implementation
  -  In the midst of war, people look for food, safety and loved ones.
  -  Floods, forestfires, landslides...what's happening?
  -  The U.S. jobs report... what does it mean?
  -  The Libor-fixing scandal...
 
You too may wish to read them, at :-
 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
  -  

The ECB drops rate to 0.75 percent

Posted on July 5, 2012 at 10:36 AM Comments comments (1)
Amidst detecting signs that the economy is still on the road to Recovery but in need of a stimulus, the ECB has announced a rate cut from  1 percent by 25 basis points.  This seems a step in the right direction, as the supply of credit is available from the banks but enterprise needs that extra encouragement of a stable low long term rate to borrow and invest for growth.  Hopefully this will be the silver bullet for growth in Europe, as the Central Bank of China has also cut its main rate by 31 bps to 6 percent. CORRECTION : the rate has been cut to 6 percent, not 3.5 percent as previously noted in error.
 
All the major economies ought to be moving in tandem, and to help the cause of worldwide economic Recovery and resume consumerism of a required and sustainable scale to create jobs, encourage house and auto purchases, and improve spending on the High Streets, the required ingredient in my considered opinion is the lowering of Central Bank repo rates among the BRICS countries.  The rate for example in India and Russia is unsustainably high, and not conducive to growth.  If the mature economies have used this formula as a tool for stimulus, why not the BRICS countries also?  Brazil and South Africa too have potential to use this tool.  And, why not? After all, the world has the Oil price as a constant - it is priced in dollars, and has led to inflation everywhere with its recent highs. If the mature economies see it as a benefit to stimulus to have low interest rates, why not the BRICS nations also?
 
A repo rate of 8 percent in India has seen the Manufacturing Index drop in recent months, and the figures are suggesting a slowdown, which will impact globaly.  The emerging market economies need to stimulate growth, and here they have the benefit of being resources-rich, with young populations and potential and need for building houses, hospitals, bridges, airports, railways,roads, etc, etc, etc.
A rate of 8 percent stifles growth, it frightens industries from borrowing, in view of the global demand picture.  But if the domestic demand can be encouraged, with delivering of higher standards of living for the population, this would be an added blessing and more trade can result worldwide. 
 
The manufacturing numbers in Europe seem to be mildly better then previous months, and if industry now takes courage and starts borrowing and investing and creating jobs and consumerism, the anthem for Recovery can continue to play. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

The God Particle. Day of great celebration today for Mankind.

Posted on July 4, 2012 at 4:06 PM Comments comments (38)
Today is a day of great celebration for mankind, the day when they have revealed the finding of the God Particle, the sub-atomic structure that is the DNA of the beginning of Creation.  It is a milestone, like the landing of the First Man on the Moon, or the discovery of penicillin... or even hearing Vivaldi's Four Seasons for the first time.
 
The announcement came amidst palpable excitement amongst the scientists and other observers alike, from the Cern laboratory in Switzerland.  There, in the tunnel of 27 kilometers that houses the Collider, the Higgs Boson particle has been isolated.  What benefits this discovery brings to Mankind, remains to be seen.  It has certainly brought joy to Dr Higgs and his team, which has consisted of 8,000 scientists from over 100 nations, working in co-operation.  The project is said to have cost about $30 billion, and it seems money well spent.  I don't know what was Professor Higgs' inspiration all those 40 years ago when he first proposed the idea, but I have read in the Bhagvad Gita that when the boys and girls playing with Lord Krishna looked into His open mouth, they saw a galaxy... It is virtually as if the God Particle may have fallen out of that vision. 
 
It is naturally fitting that the name of Dr Bose is associated with this project and this particie, for Dr Bose's name is the foremost in super-magnification.  The Higgs-Boson particle, the God particle.  Today is a day that shall inspire many more visions of what there can be, to be found which already exists in Nature, waiting for mankind's curiosity and persistence to unearth it. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.