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Honest Information, Profitable Trading

Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

My Blog

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How stimulating!

Posted on March 7, 2013 at 4:30 AM Comments comments ()
Cup of herbal tea, a little square of chocolate....?  Perhaps a cup of decaf, smooth as milk?
 
Today is Thursday, when the Bank of England and the ECB will issue some statements regarding
the interest rates (which are already at an all-time low) or other measures to stimulate the economies
in Europe.
 
After the recent aggregate £375 Billion pumped into the U.K. economy, Sir Mervyn King has to ponder the question of whether another £50 Billion stimulus would be prudent and necessary.  Are the MPC allowed to open their minds to him? 
 
If I had the privilege of sitting on the MPC (which I would welcome at some point in the future, even gratis), I would suggest looking at it this way:  the recent stimulus of £375 Billion quantifies at around for a population of 66 million, at £5681 per head.  By contrat, the U.S. economy, with a population of 330 million, has had a recent stimulus post-2008 of 3T, quantifying at $9090 per head.  At current exchange rate for cable, that is £6060 per head in U.S., so the U.K. would be justified in doing another £379.60 per head, or....well, simple multiplicaion by 66 million....another £25 Billion or so to bring it to par with the U.S. (who will be probably stimulating further).
 
The British landscape shows a picture of shops which are not too busy, but you can't blame people for not spending what they haven't got.  The average social security payment is between £42 and £92 per week, just about enough to eat some simple food and drinks, so money for buying clothing or beds or curtains and such things is a bit scarce, compared to the bankers bonuses (being awarded from money which the banks are hoarding from the stimulus).  More of the stimulus needs to go to retail customers, either through increase in social net, or through direct lending at sensible rates, so the poor don't become victims of the sharks.
 
An additional stimulus of £25 to £50 Billion would be in order, I believe.  Not only that, to feed in an additional £5 per head may require stimulus of upto £275 Billion in due course, leaving scope for another £225 over the next year or 18 months.  That really would be sufficient to stimulate the economy in England, and make it the green and pleasant land it is, with a landscape of thriving businesses and factories, and restaurants (Chinese, Indian, Italian, Greek, Thai, Lebanese, et al), and proud house-owners and expensive cars being driven at a sedate pace. 
 
Such is how it should be, Sir Mervyn.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 

Finally, it seems the U.K. has started to pull out of recession.

Posted on October 25, 2012 at 5:45 PM Comments comments ()
It seems the U.K. economy has just about started to come out of a long recession.  At least that is what the growth in the GDP of 1 percent for the quarter to September suggests.  The news came amidst some not so heartening news, of the closure of the Transit Vans division of Fords and a parts manufacturing plant in Dagenham, sore news for 4,000 plus employees of the giant automakers.
 
But the good news is that the U.K. is out of a recession, thanks in great part to the visitors to the London Olympics recently and the crowds who celebrated the Queen's Diamond Jubilee.  During the Olympics, some people were working 60 hours a week and earning good money, such a week is a good training for aspiring millionaires.
 
The American and European markets have see-sawed and hee-hawed recently, but I detect them now getting positive for the close of the week tomorrow.  There is just a feeling that everything will be okay, and improvements will happen.  By grace of God, that's how it should be.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Is the DOW going to reach for 15000?

Posted on September 22, 2012 at 4:51 PM Comments comments ()
Without giving anyone false hope, I think it is very possible by the end of the year, regardless of who is President of U.S.A., whether it is Mr Obama or Mr Romney. 
 
As in most Presidential Election years, the markets have followed a similar pattern, being now up in this the third quarter.  Following this, the fourth quarter is very likely to be upwards also. 
 
Housing in the U.S. seems to have started to firm up at the bottom levels, and there has been a slight upwards gradient since early this year.  With the 30-year mortgages at a record low, this is very likely to help enable people buy their homes which now seem to be at an affordable level of price, job security and income sustainability permitting.  What a boon it would be if somehow house mortgages were tied in with employment, perhaps offered by the major employers? 
 
Mr Bernanke's announcement of the QE3, at $40 billion per month on an ongoing basis, is likely to help, especially as a good part of the allocation will be used currently for mortgage backed securities.  The creation of a national bank of mortgage provider would assist the cause greatly.
 
Regarding Europe, the bond purchasing measures announced by the ECB seem to need the blessing from Germany.  Once that is granted, things will start to motor onwards and upwards in Europe also.
 
My blog has received a lot of visitors from China recently.  The Chinese Paralympians and Olympians did
spectacularly well, and are to be congratulated on their fine achievements.  As to the China economy, a soft landing is the most likely accumulation of what has been announced so far. 
 
Just a couple of tweaks, perhaps India (who have recently announced favourable measures) and Russia reducing the repo or benchmark rate, would help the worldwide cause.  As they are such huge countries, they need to be in tune with the new policies being adopted in the  mature economies.  
 
I continue to believe in, and pray for, a worldwide economic Recovery.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 

Blogs and Referring Traffic updates to w/e 8/9/12

Posted on September 10, 2012 at 7:35 AM Comments comments ()
I have been a little bit busier than usual, having now been appointed the Ward Executive Secretary at the Ilford Church of Jesus-Christ of Latter Day Saints, and therefore not having the time to write so many blogs nor updates so promptly as before. 
 
My thanks to all these for Referring Traffic in the week ending 8th September :-
 
  Stumbleupon.com - TOPS for 29th week running.  A huge thanks!
  Api.twitter
  Google.co.uk, .com, News.google.com, .sg, .ca  (HQ!)
  Facebook
  Myspace
 
  isowatches.weebly.com
  luxshop.weebly.com
  officialLouisVuittonoutletfl.com
 
  norwayescortzone.com   too have looked me up, so I list them here. 
 
Last week my blogs were as follows, so should you wish to catch up with my views, please visit : www.durudarshan.co.uk/blog
 
    - Who should the PM tell to stop dithering?
    -  A debt of 10,000 what does it cost?
    -  Are the markets expecting a Black Swan event?
    -  Give away the gift of progress
    -  Baba Ramdev, Ilford Shop.
 
Till my next blog.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

The best proposition I've read of today

Posted on September 9, 2012 at 12:31 PM Comments comments ()
The best idea I've read about today is that of the Business Secretary Vince Cable suggesting that both the Coalition and the Opposition (whose job is not to oppose but to test the propositions of the Government) should co-operate and create policies which will create growth and Recovery.  That is actually how it should be.  In the U.S., the Republicans' support for President Obama's proposals have seen their economy expanding and creating jobs and a positive GDP in a world beset with economic problems.  That is surely how all nations should be?  After all, political parties of all sides are there to serve the people who have elected them, and they have elected them to get a better deal, a better future.  A lot can be achieved with bi-partisan co-operation in most countries, if the elected leaders are open to ideas and are swift at implementing what seems a true course. 
 
The U.K. economy was dipping its toes into a double-dip, but figures recently suggest that scenario can be side-stepped, with the recent Cabinet reshuffle by the PM and return of confidence to the stock-market, which has been seeming to go upwards and onwards but has been holding back in a small range.
 
The infrastructure projects such as housing developments near race-courses or the third runway at Heathrow, and the planned railway link, could set the ball rolling with jobs and amenities which people need, and which will further open up Britain  to investments from overseas.
 
Britain is a great example of a multi-cutural nation where people live harmoniously, going to church or gurudwara or mosque or synagogue, observing their religious fesitvals Eid, Diwali, Hannukah and Christmas as joyous occassions which all people share in.  That is the nature of England.
 
Hopefully the politicians from both sides will also join in in such spirit, and set this nation once again on a path to Recovery and Prosperity.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Baba Ramdev, Ilford Shop

Posted on September 7, 2012 at 5:18 AM Comments comments ()
Couple of visitors to my website have searched for Baba Ramdev shop in Ilford.
This is at junction of Seven Kings High Road and Barley Lane.
There telephone number is 0208-590 7900, they only open on Wednesdays and Saturdays, and have limited supply of the herbal products, due to restrictions by the govt of U.K.  These are products made by Patanjali Yogpeeth of Uttrakhand, India, and have been found to be very beneficial for health.  They are sold at prices which reflect the idea of being affordable by even the poorest.  Patanjali Yogpeeth is a charitable organisation.  When the shop was open full time, they used to have a stream of visitors every day, and lot of the people I have personally spoken with said the products are very beneficial.
 
Of course it takes pressure off the hard-pressed NHS doctors and hospitals as people spend some of their own money to buy herbal products at very affordable rates and make themselves better.  The benefits to well-being are  worthwhile.   In view of this I hope the U.K. government will consider a plea to waive off unnecessary red-tape in the distribution of these herbal products.  It keeps a lot of well-meaning people doing voluntary work in this sector to provide their services and be productively busy.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Give away the gift of progress....

Posted on September 6, 2012 at 1:19 PM Comments comments ()
The Internet has created so many millionaires and billionaires, and left so many people un or underemployed. 
 
The Internet has brought rapid progress.  I don't have to visit the library, I can read so much online.  Saves on time and bus-fare. 
 
By the same token, it has reduced the High Street to empty shops. 
 
When the Internet first started to pick up, it was a novel experience.  Around the same time, they brought in the 7 day a week shopping experience, with shops being open on Sundays as well.  But my observation is that after about 8 or 9 months, some shops started to close, people started to lose their jobs. 
 
Let's make it cheaper, deliver it faster, has become the way of doing business successfully in the Internet age.  Now, if someone has an item that everybody would buy, all they have to do is set up a shop, an online presence, and customers come flooding in.  Cheaper books online mean bookshops are facing closure, so many free books on a £79 Kindle means people won't buy books nor go to libraries.
Can you just imagine how many jobs will be lost?  The whole human experience of going to shops may disappear in some sectors, sad to imagine. 
 
The successful online shops will make their proprietors millionaires, but so many people will be left without jobs. 
 
The new technology is an empowering technology, freeing people from the drudgery of repetitive tasks, so they can have more free time or rather not-too-busy time but still earning a living.  The new tech is a gift from God for the progress of mankind.  The Internet millionaires and billionaires perhaps will one day pay heed to the idea that being so empowered, they have the gift to gift it to other people, just like Tim Berners-Lee did with his world wide web.  Let everybody have a job, and be eating, drinking, reading books, watching movies, listening to more music, enjoying life, but still earning their living. 
That would be mankind's dream come true, the age we have all been praying for, on a nice sunny day to put the sporting shoes and sports shirt, and go for a stroll, secure that the world is a good place, and God has given the world the bounty to share and let everybody enjoy.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Are the markets expecting a Black Swan event?

Posted on September 5, 2012 at 5:18 AM Comments comments ()
Just hearing of a Black Swan event should not be ominous, although of course it will lead some investors to dream of being quick on the short side. 
 
Last night I was at a presentation in Park House, Finsbury Circus, at the meeting of the Market Technicians Association.  There I heard this phrase, although the notion itself does not seem to have weight at the moment. 
 
I looked at the DOW Index chart and that of the FTSE 100.  Both have had some downward pressure, agreed.  The huge volume on the DOW last night lowered the Index by just over 50 points.  Normally, with a volume of 1 million or so, that much occurs.  But yesterday, the volume was a massive 78 million! 
 
If a Black Swan event were to have occured, it would have happened yesterday.  Now it just shows there are people who are hopeful that the markets will head downwards very swiftly and make them rich beyond the dreams of avrice.  But, as that event did not occur with such a volume, maybe that expectation can no longer hold true?
 
There will be doubts, some people will be quick to hedge their bets both ways now. 
 
The Federal Reserve is not going to open the taps of quantitative easing just yet, and hope there is today that ECB Chairman Mario Draghi will formally announce the acceptance of a Bond buying programme of 2-3 year debt.  It is said that new funds of upto 500 Billion Euros are being readied for this purpose, although it will be used very selectively. 
 
That may dismay those looking for a Black Swan event. 
 
I hope people have not forgotten their Stop Loss orders in case the market rebounds this afternoon.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

Who should the PM tell to stop dithering?

Posted on September 3, 2012 at 4:48 PM Comments comments ()
The PM has received an invitation from the Eurozone to get the British economy moving in the right direction, in the direction of growth.  It would provide inspiration and leadership for all.  The British are well-known for being innovative and leading from the front.
 
In tune already and before being asked, David Cameron suggested that Britain's business leaders get a move on and do the necessary to bring about such favourable changes, although he will stick to his guns and stick to the budget reduction exercise. 
 
No one is asking for U-turn or something.  What people are asking for is a slight change in the magnitude and severity of the budget cuts.  A common-sense question to ask is : why destory jobs in the civil service which pay about £1500 only to pay social security and housing benefits to those who thus become unemployed?  What is the point?  It creates a strain on the social security system and deprives the country of the good work done by those civil servants, they are always doing much, much more than twiddling their thumbs.
 
What's happened with the little private educational establishments, where are the pupils or students they should be teaching?  You know what, the parents have become unemployed, they can't afford the fees.  This is but one example of the knock-on effect.  When parents haven't got money for cigerettes, children can't have sweets or crisps from the local shop, where the shopkeeper is standing wondering what has happened to the country, no one seems to buy newspapers or cigerettes or sweets as they used to from his Dad and Uncle before him?  And they go to Tesco's to buy their wines and spirits.  What has gone wrong with the country? 
 
Could the central government not review the Uniform business rates, and give discounts to new or struggling businesses for a year or so, until the economy picks up again?  What about the landlords of the empty commercial properties, can't they take a lower rent until things improve?  What about the teachers sitting at home unemployed, can't they take a cut in pay and help make private education affordable?  Can't the banks start to lend the money that the Bank of England has pumped into the system?  If these and similar measures are put into effect, Britain will come out smiling, smelling of roses, just as the Olympians and Paralympians have done in London, and made Britain so proud.  Those people are an inspiration and a celebration of the human spirit.  And what a spirit!
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

A debt of 10,000 what does it cost?

Posted on September 3, 2012 at 8:02 AM Comments comments ()
Most people, when they take out a loan or incurr credit card debt, don't worry about it long term.  They just meet the minimum payment and hope everything is fine till next month.  But a sobering thought : I looked through an interesting book, The Chinese way to wealth and prosperity, and I woke up to see the context :  A 10,000 loan, if it is being repayed at the minimum 3 percent per month, and say the rate is 20 percent or so, will take 90 years to clear.  90 years is a lifetime. 
 
A solution is to try and repay the debt a bit more, so that the capital repayment is reduced.  Say, pay £30 or $30 more per month, that would reduce the time frame.  Or ask for an interest-freeze, if your circumstances warrant it.  Or request the bank or lender to reduce the interest rate, from 20 percent or whatever to less, much less.  Once that is agreed and set in motion, you can sigh a sigh of relief. 
 
20 percent per annum is a sobering amount.  Just imagine the horrendous 1329 percent or so that some lenders charge.  That ought to be outlawed. 
 
Till next time.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

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