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Honest Information, Profitable Trading

Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

My Blog

Blog

www.durudarshan.co.uk/blog

Posted on November 9, 2013 at 6:12 AM Comments comments ()
My thanks to the staff at these Search Engines for listing and indexing my website, and to Vistaprint for so beautifully hosting my website over last 28 months.  It has built from strength to strength, drawing many visitors each day. Thanks to all :
                        Stumbleupon
                        Google (the multi-trillion dollar brain)
                        Twitter  (tweet tweet to you)
                        LinkedIn (professional and so well defined)
                        j.mp
                        Yahoo (book readers love you)
                        Bing (looks like people like spy thrillers)
                        and, just for good measure, a few porno sites, harmless fun is okay I'd say.
 
My blogs being read overnight are as follows :
  -  The ECB's 25 basispoint cut
  -  Stephanie Ruhle, CNBC interviewer 
         (She's actually an anchor for Bloomberg, working in New York)
  -  This is time for buyers to support Bangladesh factories
          (American companies have done so, may blessings be unto them)
  -  Thomas Sugrue's review of The Last Great Prophet
  -  The Bank of America share price.
 
----------------------------------------------LIZZIE--------------------------------------------------------------
 
Yesterday I heard the news that China has experienced good growth and far from a hard-landing which people feared it is experiencing very sound growth, with PMI figures up and increasing. 
 
One commentator has stated that China has several trillion dollars of reserves for investment, so I imagine the worldwide boom can continue.  Today I heard that 80 percent of visas being taken for visits to Portugal are for Chinese property investors.  This way, all economies with an open-door policy to encouraging property ownership and immigration would benefit from the Chinese wherewithal to sustain growth and Recovery. 
 
If the Chinese sources are suggesting U.S. is looking for $561 Billion for next six months, it augers well for the U.S. that the jobs numbers were pretty good and growth potential is inherent in America, and it would be very probable that China would support such borrowings and support, as they have done in the recent past. 
 
The luxury sector may start to rebound in China, who continue to buy Rolls Royce cars and jets as never before, and with the refocus on domestic consumption and increasing exports from China, it is apparent that the Honourable Xi Jinping is inspiring policies that will help the Chinese people achieve higher standards of living. 
 
For stability and optimism into the near future, what more could the world wish for?
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Positive actions would make everything good

Posted on October 29, 2013 at 7:08 AM Comments comments ()
Following in the math of the sequestration cuts, followed by uncertainity about the U.S. Debt Ceiling raise, and the unwanted shutdown and furloughs, it seems apparent that confidence has taken a bit of a knock, especially with regards to the United States economy, but obviously timely positive action would restore that. 
 
The news that Ms Janet Yellen was nominated by Mr Obama to the chair of the Federal Reserve was actually happy news to the markets, welcoming this dove of the financial system, assured that the punchbowl would be replenished and the taper would be quite some time away now. 
 
Once that nomination is confirmed by one and all, that would send the right signal and boost the confidence that the economy needs right now, in view of the temporary fix of the nation's capacity to continue funding itself until only 15th January 2014. 
 
Around that time Chairman Ben Bernanke steps down, and willing bi-partisan co-operation to extend
the reserve balance capacity and support Ms Yellen in her post will ensure great and much needed stability to the world financial system, and not only to that of the United States.
 
The housing numbers yesterday were obviously disappointing, indicating a shake in the confidence of house buyers.  That is but natural, in view of the uncertainity created by the last-moment and then only such a short temporary fix of the situation. 
 
When I was in California and Las Vegas last year, October and November, I met lots of people and heard their stories about how hopeful they are, and how they are happy working hard, to buy their first house and know things are okay with their economy.  These were people who are taxi-drivers, concierges, receptionists, cleaners, waiters, waiteresses, a scientist working for an oil major, people who had made America their home, and who were sharing in the American dream.
 
It can obviously help the well-being of the nation if normal lending practices continue, where the individual man or woman and families are encouraged to buy their own houses, with the confidence in the system that things will continue positively, so they can believe in the virtue of borrowing and investing for the future. 
 
The oil price on both sides of the Atlantic is so high, and hopefully needs to be around the $85 mark to encourage normal growth in the economies outside the G20 nations.  Their depleted reserves and devalued currencies vis a vis the major currencies don't give them a chance.  A dose of kindness now would greatly assist growth throughout the world, which would bring great mutual benefits to all nations.  When we eat the food that we can so easily buy which has been exported from some country, we must spare a thought for the people there, who may not be able to afford such items in their own countries.  When I wear my beautifully stitched shirt, my heart sends blessings to the factory workers in Bangladesh.  It was heartening news to hear of American companies giving them continued support and helping them make the textile industry safe for workers. 
 
With such friendship and trade between nations, each cog will help turn the small wheel which in turn will drive the greater wheel, and the path to continued economic Recovery, and yes, ultimately a growing Prosperity for all, shall continue.  For that I pray.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 
 

Narayani Namastute!

Posted on October 19, 2013 at 12:21 PM Comments comments ()
When I get so many readers from Kansas City to my blog, I think Narayani Namastute! Narayani Namastute!  Yes, on the auspicious  day of Full Moon, as it was yesterday, and with the conjunction of the debt ceiling raise decision in the U.S., I was wondering what the Kansas City Fed Chairman Narayanan Kocharlakota was thinking.  I haven't read anything in the press, but he is normally an advocate of quantitative easing with deliberate measure.  In this regard, again, it is early days to see a ballpark figure of the debt ceiling raise, and for the 4 months of January 15th, Congress has announced that the U.S. government will be fully funded.  Their Comptroller is likely to know what that means, and how much money will continue to flow into the system until then. 
 
In the meantime, it must be a great relief that the shutdown has been lifted.  Never again, I can hear everyone saying.  People have lost income and business, tourists have suffered not being able to visit monuments and museums they may have especially travelled over the States to visit.  The short but very long 14 days have cost the U.S. dear, to the tune of some $24 Billion in lost revenue and productivity.  The lesson is clear, such a shutdown over an extended period would cause the economy to slow down, and the economy to lose something on the GDP measure.  It is like an economy in good shape being told to trim down.  Never again, I hope.
 
As to the ballpark figure, my suggestion is $1.32 Trillion over 20 months, which works out at $66 Billion per month.  After payment of some $60 Billion per month for the social security net, that leaves $6 Billion per month for enterprise and job creation.  Jobs ranging in pay from $20 or $30,000 per annum to $250,000 per annum could be created, perhaps 300,000 or 400,000 per month.  And he presto! within six months the U.S. would have whizzed on from Recovery to Prosperity. 
 
But that's just a ballpark figure I am suggesting.  At current Stimulus of $85 Billion per month, maybe it could be different.  In view of the regime of Abenomics in Japan and their Stimulus of $85 Billion per month, the per capita differential is in Japan's favour.  It is a theme to be explored over the coming days. 
 
I am glad to note the global economic order has been stabilised after the agreement in the U.S. on the debt ceiling raise.  As they all enjoy four months of relative calm and stability until 15th January and then to 7th February, I trust they will have this in mind and not give everyone, including themselves, a tough time. 
 
Certainly, the costings and implementation of Obamacare is something they can review and see how technically it would be best implemented.  The beginnings of the British NHS took about 40 years in gestation, before it received the blessing as a Royal Charter in 1947 under the kind King George.  Obamacare is by comparison in its infancy, and needs to be tweaked and explored before this very sound principle can bring benefits to the citizens and the nation.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 

Stimulus? Taper? Where we headed?

Posted on September 27, 2013 at 2:36 PM Comments comments ()
In his penultimate testimony recently, Federal Chief Ben Bernanke suggested that the QE measures had greatly helped the economy. 
 
The infusion of money did indeed stabilise the economy and create jobs on an on-going monthly basis, helping people buy autos and houses, and adding to consumer confidence in the U.S., which has become one of the fastest recovering nations post the 2008-crash. The QE measures introduced in August 2011 helped to propel the economy from a negative loss of confidence to a positive full of hope and promise and enterprise culture.  The QE measures helped to finance the government departments as well as the social net, and has got some of the pick-and-shovel jobs under way, although not as many as may have been envisaged. 
 
Secretary for the Treasury Jack Lew is characterised as pleading for action on the issue of the debt ceiling, but of course this issue cannot have escaped anyone's attention.  A logical time for resolution of this issue in somewhere mid to end October, when Mr Bernanke may be stepping down, having served his nation in a most admirable way.
 
The $40 billion a month stimulus under the first QE measure must have clocked up a trillion just after two years and one month.  The additional stimulus of $45 billion a month in buying of mortgage-backed securities has been in place for nearly a year, and that tots up another half trillion or so.  All told, the authorised stimulus which was the debt ceiling was around $1.45 trillion, plus a further $700 billion from banks and private or public concerns.  The money has swirled in the system and created much happiness for so many people, and sustained livelihoods and restored confidence, not only in the USA, but around the world.  The dark days were when diamond merchants in India were standing idle, because American men had stopped buying diamond rings for their fiancées.  The whole supply chain from South Africa to Antwerp to Tel Aviv felt the effect.  Thankfully, those days are gone, and we all have to thank the return to confidence that has enabled consumers believe in a good life and live with hope.  When people have received loans and mortgages, their purpose has been filled with joy.  May that continue for the foreseeable future, as hard work and enterprise turn into wealth, going round and serving more.  A growing circle of enterprise and industry in each nation has given added confidence to increased trade as well as growth at home.  When the global locomotive of growth drives along, it is music to the ears of people everywhere, be it China, India, the Middle East, Africa, or South America, not to forget Japan and Australia.  Growth and enterprise is good for the world, as each nation trades their unique resources, creating work and purpose, confidence and enterprise.   
 
The cash-flow that the stimulus measures provided have been a great blessing, creating many jobs, creating many livelihoods, helping many families survive and recover from the savage recession that beset the world, and with the creation of activity, opening of factories and workshops, improving purchase of goods both utilitarian and luxury, improved number of travellers and visitors globally, it seems the economies are set for further growth to Prosperity. 
 
Secretary of Treasury Jack Lew and colleagues will know what measures are necessary.  President Obama and House Speaker Boehner will ascertain what is necessary and prudent for continuation of the economic Recovery.  Positive developments on this with bi-partisan co-operation will herald the path to Prosperity.  Trusting in good judgement, no one should have concern. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

Light a candle....

Posted on September 24, 2013 at 5:10 AM Comments comments ()
The economic news seems pretty positive all round, for continued worldwide economic Recovery.  India of course is out of sync on the benchmark interest rate, but it is a dynamic economy where the leadership are a little bit too cautious to accelerate growth.  For the moment it seems it will just motor along steadily, and blaming the high inflation on the scarcity of onions, which they are plentifully exporting.
 
The Greek economy seems to be on the mend, with a secondary surplus expected. With a nation with a population of 20 million and a large area, perhaps they need to encourage people who enjoy farming.  The potential must be huge with good climate, abundance of water and good weather as well. 
 
The situation in Spain seems pretty positive too, with a growth of 0.2 percent expected for the second quarter.  The benefits of creating jobs and filling up the empty housing, additionally with putting more buses on the roads to service secluded areas more frequently, will surely add to the growth.  Blessed with good weather and friendly people, I believe there is huge potential for continued growth in Spain.
A Latin version of Hollywood and Bollywood must surely be a possibility, with intercontinental co-productions?
 
Germany, well the situation seems so good, with Mme Angela Merkel back in the driving seat.
 
As regards the U.S., the talk of taper seems both promising and cautionary.  As Treasury Minister Jack Lew has suggested, the Debt Ceiling issue needs addressing quite soon.  The talk to me seems like a tapered candle, or a washer to be tapered on a lathe...I suppose Mr Bernanke will suggested what will need to be done.  The debt ceiling fix of a $1.45 Trillion in August 2011 was a job well done, adding to the money supply and creating the cash flow that has translated into so many jobs, a pick up in the housing market, and continued growth in the US economy, creating heatmaps of happiness for so many more people.  The stockmarkets and the banks seem in robust health, creating a huge pool of capital that will service the needs of people as and when they need to borrow and spend.  Cash rich companies like Apple attest to that fact. 
 
What would be great would be perhaps the creation of 500,000 jobs per month on a costing of $7 billion per month.  If that much additional capital was infused into the system by way of the taper, that would be just great.  Five years after the collapse of October 2008, the economic systems seem in much better shape, with strong financial institutions and safeguards in place.  A steady worldwide Economic Recovery seems to have been achieved, through co-operation and understanding of nations and the grace of God.  In celebration and to continue with Recovery, the world counts on seeing the Republicans and the Democrats in Washington support a cordial agreement, and light a new candle to Prosperity.
 
Ladies and gentlemen, you may step up to the alter, and light the candle that will add substance to the drams of humanity.
 
Amen.
 
(written by Duru-darshan)
 

Good morning, everybody.

Posted on August 14, 2013 at 5:55 AM Comments comments ()
I note my readers searching for Divine Supplements in Goodmayes.
The address is 855 High Road, Goodmayes, Ilford, IG3 9UZ, not far from Tesco, with ample car parking.
Telephone number is 0208 590 7900.  Shop is open only on Wednesdays and Saturdays, 10 am to 4 pm.
Other days by appointment. 
Mr Wilson there is one of the best masseurs, especially for Frozen Shoulder.
People over 75 years of age can get first massage free.
 
--------------------------------
Missingx.com  is a good website to track anything that passengers may have forgotten on British Airways planes.
 
--------------------------------
 
Anyone wanting to check my professional details could do well to check the volumes at public libraries,
or online, of : Marquis' Who's Who of the World (who have listed me since 1996) and
Stanford Who's Who (where I am listed since November 2011).  Look up Durudarshan H. Dadlani.
My e-mail is : [email protected]
mobile : 07505 830518
 
---------------------------------
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan
 
 
 
 

Oil price is far too high, despite accomodative policies

Posted on August 8, 2013 at 3:29 AM Comments comments ()
For a continuation of the worldwide economic Recovery, in my opinion the price of Oil is far too high  - both WTI and Brent, which hit parity recently and have been both in backwardation on the far futures contracts.
 
The holding of or reduction of benchmark rates in accommodative policies is brilliant, and the only way forward.  The Australian Reserve Bank, U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of England are setting the tone for continuation of Recovery.
 
Mr Raghuram Rajan has been appointed Governor at the Reserve Bank of India, and assumed his post there on 5th September.  In his name are coded the most fond Hindu wishes in Godhead, just as they chant Raghupati Ragav Rajaram.  Hope he will set policies to utilise the various fiscal tools he has at his disposal, and help renew expansionary growth in the Indian economy.  It is noted that he is a gregarious, media-friendly personality, so presumably the world will hear more about what he has in mind. 
 
Oil price at anything above $85 per barrel is too high, and will continue to slow down the world economies.  When people are unable to feed themselves and their children in Yemen and other places, most of the developing world I would surmise, it is time for the OPEC nations to pause and consider what would be best for everybody.  Growing unemployment in South Africa (over 25 percent) and other countries, where social security is not a state policy, does not indicate a robust world picture.  It is imperative that the Oil price be reduced, for continuation of worldwide economic Recovery, which in turn will be able to sustain infrastructure growth in the OPEC and other nations. 
 
Israel with an unemployment rate of over 25 percent could do with international goodwill for their technologically advanced products, and a peace in that region can only help bring the oil price down and help the economies in that region.  In a cooling off of tensions lies the way forward to peace and prosperity.
 
Enlightened souls who help govern the policies, the duty is yours to do the needful.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Mixed signals about the economic picture

Posted on July 30, 2013 at 8:08 AM Comments comments ()
There seem to be mixed signals about the economy. 
 
The OPEC countries exported oil worth $1.27 Trillion last year, so that much wealth has been created for their economies and the nations who trade with them.  What is baffling is the high Oil price, which in my calculation is far too high to sustain Recovery.  Couple that with an observation made by Prince Al-waleed bin Talaal that in view of increasing shale gas production, especially in the U.S., the world is less reliant on oil from OPEC, meaning declining demand in years to come.  Most OPEC nations' infrastructure development projects would stay on line were the price per barrel no less than $85, that was according to Sheikh Al-Naimi and Sheikh Al-Badari as well as the Algerian oil minister about a year ago. 
 
The housing numbers from the U.S. on the Case-Schiller map have not been as robust as was expected; indeed, housing starts have been the slowest for 18 years.  While reduced inventory is holding up prices, there needs to be much more construction activity.
 
In the meantime, Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycles Research Institute, who looks at the leading indicators, suggests he has seen figures to indicate a slow-down, which would probably show up in the real economy in another four-five months time.  Corrective measures by government and big corporations in creating jobs and a resurgence of confidence could help to avert that scenario. 
 
All humans like to eat and drink well, dress well, live in comfortable housing, have good transport, have good entertainment, read books, listen to music, watch movies, play in the park, go on holidays, and so on, and people always have aspirations that the economy - in the combined efforts of all to innovate, develop, utilize and monetize all that God has put on earth - will help them with improving standards of living.  That is what everyone wants. 
 
Good news from the U.S. is that they are creating about 150,000 or more jobs each month, and today sees the announcement by Amazon of the creation of 5,000 jobs at their HQ.
 
I suggest a lower Oil price would help Recovery regain its sure steps, for a worldwide economic Recovery.  I pray for that.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 

Hello Everybody....Oakland, Detroit, Miami

Posted on July 21, 2013 at 12:36 PM Comments comments ()
The Chapter 9 Bankruptcy of Detroit last Friday is a stark reminder of what happens to an economy when trust breaks down between communities and disrupts the social fabric, leading to decline and decay and a sad breakdown of an economy.
 
I understand from cursory reading of books on Detroit that the 1967 riots sparked off a distrust between the communities, and may have been the turning point for the breakdown of the economy which has now resulted to this sad, sad decline.
 
No two children of the same family will be totally understanding or obedient to their parent(s), but if family members work in harmony and common objectives, they tend to be more successful.  That rule of harmony holds true for organisations as well as for communities, there is no reason why it should not hold true for cities or even nations, hence last week I referred to Cario and Oakland but of course I should also have mentioned Miami.
 
Just imagine Detroit in the 1950s, which now appears to have been its heyday, full of harmony and enterprise, inspiring dreams, the American dream, contributing to its status as a city of great reputation worldwide, with its ballrooms, museums, theatres, skyscrapers....The industry and enterprise was there to give a livelihood to the 465,000 residents there, who soon grew to over a million and to nearly two million towards the peak.  The infrastructure was added to as it served the citizens and visitors, and the town grew to a city. 
 
The decline has seen people leave, mainly white people leaving the city to suburbs, leaving a ghetto at its core, the deserted buildings falling apart, now ready for demolition or refurbishment. 
 
The population has fallen, leaving the municipality with an income of about $1 billion a year, when it probably needs at least a billion-and-a-half just to service the interest on the bonds. 
 
A solution may be repopulation, with some company and a group of New Economy companies able to generate a lot of jobs and sustain the livelihoods of the citizens.  Obviously there is a lot of talent and raw energy, that can be purposefully employed and will create wealth and sustain the people and regenerate the city.  All that is now needed is for a few men and women of vision to locate their wealth generating companies there, and give a boost to the regeneration of the housing and public buildings.
The talent is there, you cannot stand and see a great city die.  Hopefully, the government can make a special provision for a funding programme to regenerate this great iconic city with its beautiful landmarks. 
 
As harmony exists between people, so will Recovery and Prosperity bloom in their midst. Today, I pray for restoration of faith in Detroit. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

Detroit filed for Chapter 9 bankruptcy.

Posted on July 19, 2013 at 10:39 AM Comments comments ()
Mismanagement and corruption are two words that some reports on TV seem to suggest as possible causes of the neglect and decline of Detroit, leading today to a quickie filing of Bankruptcy.
A sad state for any community, sadder still when it has the towering GM headquarters building there.
There was a time when kids the world over associated the name Detroit with motor car production, or simply with great looking motors, the sort of cars we all wished to drive one day.  What happened to those beautiful Chevvys and Corvettes, those beautiful cars?  What happened to the whole car manufacturing industry?  What happened to the people who worked there, what happened to the houses, lying today in their tens of thousands, abandoned, neglected, derelict?
 
It seems a debt burden of $20 billion, which the municipality today cannot repay, and a neglect over a couple of decades has led today to this sad bankruptcy.
 
A programme of regeneration must materialise, surely, to put Detroit back on its feet, perhaps even put Detroit back in peoples' affections. 
 
It would definitely take the will of government to put some money into this economy, and the vision of enlightened entrepreneurs, who could probably see Detroit as a great opportunity to rebuild.  Money plus the vision of someone (I know such a person is there, but I shall not pre-empt by banding a name, although if you look in the top 100 entrepreneurs in America, you will probably see who fits the bill) will put the life back into Detroit. 
 
When houses became habitable, the people become hospitable, when a New Industry settles in Detroit, wealth will be created, wealth will grow, and life will be breathed into this neglected town.  Hope springs eternal in the human heart, that I do believe, as do the guys playing netball in the streets there.
For the regeneration of Detroit, I pray. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

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