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Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

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The youth unemployment and the Retirement age

Posted on May 28, 2013 at 7:24 AM Comments comments (8)
It seems a little bit of tweaking and changes in policy may improve the situation in Europe dramatically, at least I believe so.
 
The high rate of unemployment amongst the under-25s and the debate about the Retirement age surely throws up possibilities of correction and growth in the right segments. 
 
People like to retire early, not work into their old age!  People like to work a slightly shorter week, so they can enjoy some leisure time enjoying the sunshine, pottering around town, meeting friends, playing cards, taking youngsters to all the exciting places, and so on.  That is the boon of the Digital age, where people shouldn't have to work long hours.  Each new generation should have more leisure time, and a better standard of living.  Why not? 
 
And the young people, why should they be unemployed?  If there is work to be done, they should do it instead of the older people.  Does it not make sense?  It would reduce unemployment amongst the young people, who are the strength of this generation.  What a relief it would bring. 
 
If more young people are facilitated into the jobs market, they will become empowered to do all the traditional jobs such as plumbing, shop-keeping, driving, cooking and catering, house-building, architecture, book-keeping, teaching, nursing, pharmacology, dentistry, librarianship, well you can add a few names as well.
 
As the young people work, the economy will boom, able to support the people who need to retire and draw a pension.  It will seem fair if people who have worked hard for so many years can retire at a reasonable age and enjoy a future of a leisurely life, whilst the young can convert all their talents and energy into wealth for their nations, by work, enterprise and innovation. 
 
Europe can endeavour to put young people into traditional occupations, as well as nurturing talents for the digital economy.  Maybe the lucky ones will help create some star performers like Facebook or Pulse or Tumblr, and those can be developed as hobbies by the rest of us I guess. 
 
Now I hope the legislators and labour department superemos can sit down and formulate some ideas that will turn all that latent energy into wealth and growth for Europe.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

How stimulating!

Posted on March 7, 2013 at 4:30 AM Comments comments (5)
Cup of herbal tea, a little square of chocolate....?  Perhaps a cup of decaf, smooth as milk?
 
Today is Thursday, when the Bank of England and the ECB will issue some statements regarding
the interest rates (which are already at an all-time low) or other measures to stimulate the economies
in Europe.
 
After the recent aggregate £375 Billion pumped into the U.K. economy, Sir Mervyn King has to ponder the question of whether another £50 Billion stimulus would be prudent and necessary.  Are the MPC allowed to open their minds to him? 
 
If I had the privilege of sitting on the MPC (which I would welcome at some point in the future, even gratis), I would suggest looking at it this way:  the recent stimulus of £375 Billion quantifies at around for a population of 66 million, at £5681 per head.  By contrat, the U.S. economy, with a population of 330 million, has had a recent stimulus post-2008 of 3T, quantifying at $9090 per head.  At current exchange rate for cable, that is £6060 per head in U.S., so the U.K. would be justified in doing another £379.60 per head, or....well, simple multiplicaion by 66 million....another £25 Billion or so to bring it to par with the U.S. (who will be probably stimulating further).
 
The British landscape shows a picture of shops which are not too busy, but you can't blame people for not spending what they haven't got.  The average social security payment is between £42 and £92 per week, just about enough to eat some simple food and drinks, so money for buying clothing or beds or curtains and such things is a bit scarce, compared to the bankers bonuses (being awarded from money which the banks are hoarding from the stimulus).  More of the stimulus needs to go to retail customers, either through increase in social net, or through direct lending at sensible rates, so the poor don't become victims of the sharks.
 
An additional stimulus of £25 to £50 Billion would be in order, I believe.  Not only that, to feed in an additional £5 per head may require stimulus of upto £275 Billion in due course, leaving scope for another £225 over the next year or 18 months.  That really would be sufficient to stimulate the economy in England, and make it the green and pleasant land it is, with a landscape of thriving businesses and factories, and restaurants (Chinese, Indian, Italian, Greek, Thai, Lebanese, et al), and proud house-owners and expensive cars being driven at a sedate pace. 
 
Such is how it should be, Sir Mervyn.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 

Bailouts and the Fiscal Cliff

Posted on December 10, 2012 at 10:18 AM Comments comments (1)
As Spain gets ready to receive its bailout package of 39.5 Billion on the 12th, the markets are wondering who will next ask for a bailout?  Could it be Ireland, Cyprus, Portugal....?
 
Originally I thought Italy would be next in line, but Signor Silvio Berlusconi's announcement that he's withdrawing support for Premier Mario Monti and thinking of standing again for the Premiership has caused upset in the Italian stockmarket.  Today, it has gone down 3.5 percent upon hearing that Mario Monti, the technocrat Prime Minister who has helped Italy steer a steady course in recent months, is considering resigning if his support is withdrawn.  The yields on Italian bonds have started to go up.  How patriotic would it be for Signor Berlusconi to come back centre stage now?  It would be more patriotic in my view for Signor Berlusconi to support Premier Monti's government.
 
The debacle in Misratta and the aftermath, when bond yields just shot up and have had to be hoisted down, is something that will come back to peoples' memories.  It is an episode not worth repeating.  As Italy makes steady headway to Recovery, the greatest act of patriotism would be for the Signor to back the Premier, and the Premier to stay on, confident in the belief that he is steering the right course of action, and without him his country will become rudderless. 
 
Activity from Lisbon suggests Portugal is also hoping for a bailout, as is Ireland, and as is Cyprus.  They probably could do with about 10 Billion for a year each, to lay further foundations for Recovery. 
 
Superstorm Sandy dealt the U.S. a savage blow, right in the middle of the Presidential election.  Hoboken, Staten Island, Lower Manhattan were all badly flooded, and the announcement of 240 Billion of rebuilding by the government and insurance funds must be a morale booster. 
 
A solution to the U.S. fiscal cliff scenario is the issuance of an additional trillion over the course of the next year.  Some commentators are suggesting a figure of $45 Billion per month for buying government securities, in addition to the $40 billion MBS already announced.  I reckon a figure of $60 billion per month for purchase of government securities would be more comfortable, making a total of 1.2 trillion for the year. 
 
Hearing that millionaire households have had to go on food stamps and that the swing voters were affected by Obamacare and the social security net, is a sobering thought. 
 
The U.S. seems on a sound, expansion phase, and amicable agreement on the course of action regarding the fiscal ledger entries and creation of many more jobs per million of investment, will ensure the framework for a continued worldwide Recovery, as all nations manufacture and consume and trade and develop and grow.  As Swami Vivekanada once remarked "Never underestimate the glory of human nature".  And so it shall always be, the outlook for the world remains positive and optimistic.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.

My blogs over last two weeks, w/e 8/12/12

Posted on December 8, 2012 at 12:39 PM Comments comments (5)
Hello, friends and readers,
 
My blogs over the last two weeks were as follows :-
  - Baba Ramdev medicine in Ilford
  - Gifts - for Christmas and all year round
  -  Goods lost on aircraft - check on missingx.com
  -  Austerity or Growth?
  -  The Fiscal Cliff
  -  Are people buying houses in the U.S.?
  -  Free money and government grants in the USA
  -  The Chancellor's Autumn Statement
  -  The situation in Egypt
  -  Interest Rates.
 
Top Referring Traffic and Search Engines were :-
   Stumbleupon.com - tops for many, many weeks running!
   Google - always up there!
   Facebook - also
   t.co - Hello stranger?  Where you been?
 
Thanks to staff at all above, for listing my website, and to the wonderful people at
Vistaprint who maintain my website in such beautiful condition 24/7/365.  Well done!  
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 

Interest Rates

Posted on December 7, 2012 at 2:03 PM Comments comments (1)
Interest rates seem to be at a historic low, both in Europe and the U.S.
 
30-year mortgages are being made available at 2.99 percent in the U.S., according to some commentators.  This is a fresh low and very attractive rate, but also suggests that the market is tuned into the confidence in the growth of jobs, on which house purchases will depend.  But at such times is the best opportunity for prospective house buyers.  149,000 new jobs being added in the U.S. in November seems a great figure, given the disruption of Superstorm Sandy.  Once the question of the fiscal cliff is traditionally put to rest, the economic Recovery will be even stronger.
 
The decisions by the ECB and the Bank of England to leave the rates on hold, at 0.75 and 0.5 percent respectively, indicates more stimulus is not necessary, and the halt on further quantitative easing by the Bank of England suggests that maybe enough has been done in the way of stimulus, and the feed through needs some time to work.  That is sound common sense.
 
The Prime Minister was today visiting the heart of the industrial north, especially the car manufacturing plants.  He noted that British car exports have picked up, the best numbers since the 1970s being currently achieved, and a broad based Recovery will take shape as the manufacturing base is brought back into expansion.  Colleges are being encouraged to ask local manufacturers what the students should learn for the jobs that can be created.  This is a sound approach where supply can be created to the demand.  The harsh recession and then a dip in the puddle of another recession has woken everybody up, and obviously all solutions are being explored and implemented.  There seems a resurgence of confidence that Britain can make the best and there is a demand for it in the world.
 
So long as peace prevails and Oil remains at around current levels or lower, WTI at $85 and Brent at $105 or lower, the world seems synchronized for production and growth, with improving living standards for more and more people.  For that I pray.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

The Chancellor's Autumn Statement

Posted on December 6, 2012 at 5:29 AM Comments comments (34)
Chancellor George Osborne has announced a Statement of measures to be implemented over the course of next year, and his message has been, overall, favourably received. 
 
The stockmarket has gone up, business owners are pleased at the capital expenditure allowances which will enable investment and growth with up-to-date technology, and avoidance of the proposed 3p fuel duty altogether has sent up a cheer. 
 
Working families on the whole will be better off, and those on benefits will not be hard done by, with increases in benefits of one percent. 
 
The proposed measures will help growth. 
 
The studious remarks of the Opposition, when noted and acted upon, would obviously create further growth.  The banks are said not to give their managers 'discretionary' powers in granting loans; this is something that can be corrected, and would introduce capital into the local communities, especially the small shops and traders and restaurants and pubs.  It could revive a lot of businesses as the nation gets into a mood of growth.  With the 1 percent GDP increase last quarter (after three quarters of mini falls, causing a 'double dip' of a puddle variety) confidence seems clearly to be returning.  Even casual observation of people shopping in Romford or Ilford or Green Street, Upton Park, suggests that.
 
The People's  Bank with an injection of a Billion Pounds has been long awaited.  If it actually backs entrepreneurs to scale up and invest in films, music, arts, culture, crafts, and such enterprises, people will say that not only does Britain have talent, it is finding expression and fulfillment too.  That would have a good impact for job creation for youngsters, I believe.
 
The Chancellor's words are a stimulus to growth.  What more could Britain ask for?
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.