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|Posted on January 2, 2016 at 11:19 AM||comments ()|
The chances are pretty decent of the worldwide economic Recovery continuing this year, with the promising possibility of enhancement.
Japan seems to have decided to continue its Stimulus, running at some $85 billion a month. This is gigantic for the size of their population, and guarantees the highest standards of living in the world to all Japanese citizens, plus a growing influence around the world, where their capital is likely to foster growth and development. For example, they have offered $35 billion to India for joint venture in developments of infrastructure, and this will certainly add to Japanese GNP.
India has done joint venture and co-operation treaties with Germany and France, to help develop some of the 100 new cities that Pradhanmantri Shree Narendra Modi announced at the beginning of 2015. Since then, he has visited China and Russia, and is signing up co-operation and trade agreements with every likely nation, including many in Africa. As a lot of Indians lived in Africa and grew up there, it seems India is taking an altruistic stance, wishing to repay with gratitude to their African brothers and sisters. This is a laudable gesture, and will enable the inherent and huge potential growth that is in places such as Lagos and Zimbabwe.
China too is extending its sphere of influence, Hon Xi Jinping visited so many nations and signing up trade and co-operation treaties. I can imagine joy for all these nations, where they will have expertise been made available to them, together with the machinery and transportation to fully benefit from their resources as well as create infrastructure developments which they so badly need. How can people not imagine dams, electricity, drinking water available on the doorstep, schools, dispensaries, hospitals, hotels, housing, tourists.....thriving economies....where God has blessed them with the rich fertile lands, mineral wealth, green vegetation, fragrant flowers, livestock to provide them plenty of milk. Africa is most likely to come up with the most number of billionaires soon....or if not, at least top social entrepreneurs who will instead contribute to their lands through holding together and creating business enterprises which serve the communities. If not dollar billionaires, these will be the enlightened spiritual billionaires who will do great good for their communities....at once, their people will have increasing standards of living. If the local African banks can back these entrepreneurs, they can create the development and wealth and growth that is the potential. I pray all these people receive the rich blessings from God.
The United States has steadily grown from the dark days of the 2008 meltdown to today, where the economy seems to have been totally restored, and is growing, with confidence, more jobs, more enterprise, more homeowners, more cars......Now the Fed will just need to fix the Debt Ceiling (in March, it seems). If they just expand the balance sheet to January 2017, the Obama administration will be home and dry, and all the senators and representatives can continue to collect their pay checks.
The alternative policies of the Tea Party crowd or Republicans like Donald Trump would see Obamacare repealed, and poor students being sent home due to lack of a free lunch at school. Those dark days caused due to sequestration are something that is best forgotten.
I pray Hillary Clinton shall become elected as the President at November 2016. Simply, it seems her destiny. It would resonate with the times and the perceptions of people today, everybody seeking self-expression in a democracy. Her election will enshrine the highest achievement in gender equality. That is a truth the people will not wish to hide, nor deny themselves. The time has come for this Democrat to rise as the dove, and sit in the highest office in the land.
She was very successful as a peacemaker in the Middle East when she was the Secretary of State. She has a natural gift for making peace agreements, and people trust her. She is a natural ambassador for peace. The world atmosphere will change when she becomes President, the whole tone of political relations will change, I believe, for the better. It is up to the people, to honour her, and elect her to the White House.
The One Trillion Eighty Billion Stimulus that the European Central Bank has rolled out has the promise of being extended beyond September 2016, as announced by their President Mario Draghi recently. That will offer ample scope for upgrade and innovation by the companies in the Euro Area (and by extension Europe) to meet the challenges of these times. On that note, the one thing the world is waiting for is the Juncker Plan. With reforms under way, Greece must surely be ready for it.
The low Oil price has depleted the reserves of the oil exporting nations, and their budget deficits have been bigger than envisaged. That suggests they will review their stance on cutting productions, and introduce some cuts before long; their stance has hurt their purses deeply, so some change may be expected. Russia too could follow suit, unless they are happy to foster a recession at home. Common sense would suggest oil price could begin to rise.....but when is only known to the bigwigs in OPEC and Russia. It is past the post-panic stage; it seems it is a time when they must be regretting not cutting back production earlier. And there would be no loss of face. Economic reality seems pretty harsh.
May I wish you good health and joy for the New Year.
Durudarshan H. Dadlani
(c) Copyright, but may be freely shared.
|Posted on February 6, 2015 at 7:09 AM||comments ()|
Two Thousand and Fifteen may become a very good year, for most nations.
In China, where they recently cut rates and introduced a Trillion Dollar stimulus, the dynamics of internal growth and development as well as for the export markets suggests robust growth. The Honourable Xi Jinping is quoted as saying that China will achieve a new standard in progress. His words are welcome, and should give heart to anyone who may be fearing a slowdown in China. The actual production and shipments overseas ( I hear huge ship loads arriving in Britain, and for the first time in many years hear the trains ferry the goods across in the middle of the night in a huge procession) testify to that.
In the U.S., the start of Prosperity which I had foreseen for November 2014 seems to have materialised, and heatmaps of happiness continue to grow for the people there, with increasing numbers of auto purchases, mortgages taken out on single family units, more people in work both seasonal and permanent, lower Oil prices (although that is a mixed blessing), and good weather, apart from the recent snow.
I see the DOW going upto 18,500* by June this year, although the prospects for 2016 may be mild, with perhaps the saving grace of Hillary Clinton becoming elected as the President. Sentator Jeb Bush is a strong candidate, but I detect the dynamics at play will ensure the Democrats will again have tenure of the highest position in the land.
*I am just expressing my opinion, based on the logics of what I perceive. People should speculate at their own risk.
The Oil producing nations will have to work in co-operation and ensure a stable oil price, otherwise their dollar-denominated revenues will not meet the cost of their imports, and may lead to ques outside empty supermarkets, waiting to buy stocks (g00ds) which are being rationed, as in Venezuela.
It makes me cringe in shock to see the situation in Ukraine, where the rebels loyal to the Soviet leadership are wrecking havoc and creating ghost towns, where life seems at 1950s levels. Mr Putin can be generous and call these people off. He must extricate himself from this very messy situation. It is doing no one any good. Once peace is restored in this region, hopefully the Rouble will recover, and help people in Russia share the common prosperity that is developing worldwide. Oil seems to be bouncing around levels which may be optimum, and which may prove good for everybody, including the newly formed shale and fracking operators. Mr Putin has to apply the generosity principle, and help the kindred folks in Ukraine. That conflict is just so unnecessary, it is just like bullying people who at one time Mr Putin was willing to big a brotherly hug. I just don't believe it.
Under Pradhanmantri Shree Modiji, India is on track for the fastest growth since Independence, although the recent industrial productions figures at 2.6 percent seem so faint. Provided the RBI decide to enjoin the procession of Recovery and lower the benchmark repo rate, things should improve. There is a great natural appetite for investment into India, with the right atmosphere. Creating a major air hub to compete with what exists in the Arab Emirates may be a good raising of the bar, but let us all wait and see what will actually materialise. But in the meantime, the commencement of building a 100 new cities seems a great vision, and Modiji has my congratulations. I hope his BJP policymakers and bureaucrats will ensure implementation and fulfilment of such measures.
The caution that I mentioned....while times are good, save a little for the future, and build some reserves for the second half of 2016, when it will all come in handy.
May the Lord's blessings be upon all.
Durudarshan H. Dadlani
|Posted on January 25, 2015 at 5:08 PM||comments ()|
The Trillion Euro stimulus announced this afternoon by ECB President Mario Draghi is nothing less than magnificent in my view, and will help create jobs and industry for millions, and turn into wealth. This stimulus augurs well for the European stockmarkets and for the Euro itself, which it now underpins with a very positive aspect. It seems to have been announced at the right time, and although the immediate market reaction may not have been wildly enthusiastic, it is a complex stimulus, needing people to understand and digest its implications.
In plain terms, it is 60 billion Euros per month over 18 months, starting from March to September 2016, meaning a total of 1,080,000,000,000* Euros. This was announced by Mr Draghi at the press conference in Frankfurt this afternoon.
It will serve the 19 nations that make up the Euro Area, or Eurozone, which now includes as from 1st January 2015 Lithuania. However, it will not be available at the moment to Greece, which benefits from arrangements already in place from the IMF, which gave them two bailouts and numerous haircuts. Perhaps there could be cross border mergers of some organisations which would benefit all?
There seems enough appetite for additional funds, especially by companies who have not been able to find funding from the banks so far. This is a ready segment that will be glad to be served by this Stimulus. As in England and Britain, where Mr Cameron has been visiting various companies, who have received funding now, something similar needs to be implemented in the Eurozone. Money invested in companies which need capital for upgrades of machinery, or cash flow to keep the factories operating while their customers arrange to pay them, will maintain employment and sustain livelihoods and, hopefully, even create wealth in the long term. That 'old school' way of trading had died recently in the credit crunch, and could well do with revival. It may be the clue to bring Recovery back on stream.
This Trillion Euro Stimulus was long awaited, and probably is just in time, now joining the money flow in the U.S., Japan and China, to maintain the worldwide economic Recovery, which shall flourish to Prosperity for all nations. The next stage surely must be for the BRICS nations to reduce their benchmark interest rates and for the Emerging Markets to do something similar, in due course to be followed by Africa perhaps? Or even simultaneously, and soon? Why not? The national books can become squared internationally, as each nation develops its resources, trades with the other nations, and brings development and growth at home. Would that not be the most marvellous thing to happen?
I wish you peace and prosperity, to every nation, man, woman and child.
P.S. Earlier I left out three 0's. Aw aw aw!
|Posted on March 2, 2014 at 4:19 PM||comments ()|
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|Posted on November 13, 2013 at 3:08 PM||comments ()|
Today the markets looked so mixed, I decided to take a stroll to the town and popped in at a bookstore.
There is something a bit forlorn about the carpets, and so many shelves looking emptied during open times gave me the impression that they are either going to lay on the decorations for Christmas or close down. I hope not the latter, for there were half a dozen people browsing, in the 50 plus group, at one glance, so the type of people who enjoy books and likely have the spending power also.
I couldn't see any books on technical analysis, nor on social media. Perhaps that's what the empty shelves are for.
My eye fell on a seductive book, The Mystery Method...a glance through it made me cheer up.
It says use women's perfume instead of aftershave! and the man seen with women at a bar finds more attraction, just like the house just sold or the girl just engaged gets envious glances.
The writer of that work on etiquette for the lothario or would be Casanova must know a few things, as he has even coached people to sit at a pub with him and directed them to go and chat up the woman of their fancy. Certainly some willpower is necessary to go and chat the gorgeous woman no-one else seems to go up to. That's what the Mystery Method teaches. It's somewhat like giving someone the courage to trade.
The book gives fresh amusement, such as seems to be absent in some of the oh-so-direct books that people probably buy in a hurry then wish they hadn't. But this book liked like a nice cuddly cat.
|Posted on November 9, 2013 at 6:12 AM||comments ()|
My thanks to the staff at these Search Engines for listing and indexing my website, and to Vistaprint for so beautifully hosting my website over last 28 months. It has built from strength to strength, drawing many visitors each day. Thanks to all :
Google (the multi-trillion dollar brain)
Twitter (tweet tweet to you)
LinkedIn (professional and so well defined)
Yahoo (book readers love you)
Bing (looks like people like spy thrillers)
and, just for good measure, a few porno sites, harmless fun is okay I'd say.
My blogs being read overnight are as follows :
- The ECB's 25 basispoint cut
- Stephanie Ruhle, CNBC interviewer
(She's actually an anchor for Bloomberg, working in New York)
- This is time for buyers to support Bangladesh factories
(American companies have done so, may blessings be unto them)
- Thomas Sugrue's review of The Last Great Prophet
- The Bank of America share price.
Yesterday I heard the news that China has experienced good growth and far from a hard-landing which people feared it is experiencing very sound growth, with PMI figures up and increasing.
One commentator has stated that China has several trillion dollars of reserves for investment, so I imagine the worldwide boom can continue. Today I heard that 80 percent of visas being taken for visits to Portugal are for Chinese property investors. This way, all economies with an open-door policy to encouraging property ownership and immigration would benefit from the Chinese wherewithal to sustain growth and Recovery.
If the Chinese sources are suggesting U.S. is looking for $561 Billion for next six months, it augers well for the U.S. that the jobs numbers were pretty good and growth potential is inherent in America, and it would be very probable that China would support such borrowings and support, as they have done in the recent past.
The luxury sector may start to rebound in China, who continue to buy Rolls Royce cars and jets as never before, and with the refocus on domestic consumption and increasing exports from China, it is apparent that the Honourable Xi Jinping is inspiring policies that will help the Chinese people achieve higher standards of living.
For stability and optimism into the near future, what more could the world wish for?
|Posted on October 23, 2013 at 3:29 PM||comments ()|
Recently I've had a lot of visitors to my blog and website from Putian as well as Beijing.
I note the Indian Premier Dr Manmohan Singh has been to visit Beijing soon after his trip to Moscow, and
things are looking good for co-operation on peacefully observing each other's shared borders as well as increase in friendly relations and trade.
My personal hope is to become nominated by the Congress Party of India (UPA) as the Prime Ministerial candidate for May 2014. Should my wish be fulfilled with approval of Rahul and Mrs Sonia Gandhi, I would be thrilled and would go to India straight away to start campaigning in earnest.
I have a vision for India as a good neighbour to China, Russia, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Afghanistan and the whole region, as well as to unlock the huge potential that there obviously is for growth of infrastructure such as roads, bridges, dams, power generation, further irrigation, as well as housing, hospitals, schools, universities, and so on, which would utilise the resources and cater to the public, as well as use the skills and expertise internationally in building up this great nation. I have lived in London the last 41 years, and see the n-th degree developments of this nation (United Kingdom) as something India could well try to aim for. I imagine that with India's resources both of the peoples' savings and growing expectations of improvements in living standards, it would fit hand-in-glove.
It is regrettable that there have been skirmishes on the international border with Pakistan, especially just after Dr Manmohan Singh-ji had constructive talks with Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif in New York recently. Mr Nawaz Sharif has a great reputation as a man of his people and a positive personality, who would only wish the best for his people and continuation of peaceful co-existence with India. The Indian PM has offered bilateral talks on this issue to find a resolution, and I sincerely hope common-sense and peace prevails once again.
I hope my readers will be able to make an accurate picture of what I would like to do, and I would welcome your comments on this matter.
In the meantime, I wish you a peaceful and happy evening.
|Posted on October 17, 2013 at 3:29 PM||comments ()|
Someone from New Zealand seems to remember the 'wear a silly hat and sing a song' article I blogged some time ago. That, plus all others (over 1100 articles on my blog www.durudarshan.co.uk/blog) are there for your amusement.
When I was much younger, some of my colleagues used to say that perhaps one day I should write a book and call it 'The Thoughts of Chairman Duru'. My style must have been an amusing version of the great Chinese leader.
My collection of work I have merely labelled for the meantime as 'From 2008 to Recovery'. I started to put my words on Google soon after the collapse of Lehman Bros in October 2008, which had the effect of a whirlwind hitting the capital markets. At that time, with subdued optimism and a fool's courage, I started to search for Worldwide Economic Recovery, May 2009, at Amazon.co.uk. The computerised book search merely cancelled out the May 2009 and gave me a handful of economics books. I found Nobel prizewinner but very modest hence great economist Dr. Edmund Phelps words inspiring. I feel still that in his works we can uncover some of the dynamics of restructuring our economies and re-creating Recovery from the clean landscape after 2008.
In the U.S., a lot of things seem to have been implemented, as well as in China, which has seen phenomenal growth in the last 30 years. Looking at this giant nation which is still partly a command economy, with a hierarchy where commands are given and executed without loss of time, one marvels at the inspiration to build and modernise left them by their great leader Chairman Mao. He was ruthless towards his enemies, but to his nation, he was a jovial comrade, leading them with emotional songs and poetry even when they worked hard on half empty stomachs. China has done their Leader proud, and the tradition has continued with the Honourable Hu Jintao furthering friendship with Mr Obama, which will surely further blossom now with the Honourable Xi Jinping.
The world is open for trade and further development, with Britain and Mr Cameron today inviting participation from France and China in building a nuclear power plant here in England. It is my belief that the lessons learnt from Fukushima as to how safe actually nuclear technology is, will be used to build a new generation of nuclear power plants throughout the world, which needs all alternative sources of power to build and continue forward.
The worldwide economic Recovery will continue by the grace of God, with more trade developing between nations, more co-operation in investing and helping build the other nations, so that in peace and exchanging the resources each nation is blessed with, all can share what God has given, to the glory of our Father in Heaven, whose name is Allah to some, Bhagvan to others, who loves all humanity deeply and will surely help us all find solutions to the problems that confront us. That I sincerely believe, and after the fiscal arrangements America has put in place last night, it seems for the meantime the music of Recovery will continue.
Putting on a silly hat and singing a song is a great idea of the Wal-Mart chairman. Haeri Mai, that's what the sister at church says to us sometimes. It means hello; to me, it sounds like my own Mum's name.
Today I hear the North and South parts of New Zealand have two new names in Mauri, the green island and the other one. Please do let me know when you write to me. I'd appreciate your comments.
In the meantime, kind regards,
|Posted on October 15, 2013 at 2:35 PM||comments ()|
Sound bites coming out of Washington this morning suggested that progress had been made on the debt ceiling raise negotiations, but there was still some work to be done.
Indeed, NDTV was stating that a deal had been agreed in principle, to the effect that there would be 'full funding' of the government till 15th January, and thereafter a debt ceiling renegotiation date of 15th February. If that is in fact so, that would be great news for everybody, at least they won't have to worry about the cold winds of November and can have a holiday and relax over Christmas before having to face the cold corridors of Washington in the New Year.
People are counting on the House Fathers Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell to bring everybody to the fold and get some agreement in principle, so that it can be presented to the world latest by Thursday.
Optimistically, everybody is waiting for such news.
In the meantime the U.S. Budget Office is issuing advisories in the event that an agreement is not reached. Namely that in the event of a debt ceiling limit not being raised, the government will have run out of authority to issue any more money into the system. In the most unlikely event of that happening, the ramifications would multiply twelve times what has happened under the Sequestration.
(The sequestration cuts totalled $85 billion over twelve months from a Q.E. budget running at $85 billion per month; hence one twelfth, so the effects of a halt would be magnified twelve times. This is just to put in context some meat for the doomsters. I cannot see the wise elected leaders of the U.S. ever leading America down that path, which would of course spell pessimistic scenarios for the world, as all nations trade with the U.S. and lot of people are engaged in producing something for export or working in calls centres and so forth which serves the major economies.)
Ideally, everybody would like to believe that such an agreement will be reached and released to the world, that full funding of the government continues until January, and then once again they can face the cold winds of February to negotiate another debt ceiling raise. In the meantime, the funding will ensure U.S. continues to trade at full strength with the world, and create more jobs at home and abroad, creating a continuation of the Recovery that has gladly blessed this great nation.
Japan is most definitely looking for an endorsement of the QE policies which they have implemented with a huge success, pulling Japan out from a phase of stagnation that lasted 20 years to what are glad welcomes of a Recovery. China likewise is re-focusing on domestic growth; how much better it will be if things continue in a positive way across the globe, so that there is work for the workshops, freight for the transport and the oceans, everyone doing something purposeful, busy, happy, earning their livelihoods, buying houses, cars, sending their children to schools and colleges and universities, a whole world procession in progress, the army of humanity.
How wonderful it will be for those wise leaders in Washington to agree upon and then issue to the world the words that signal the continuation of the economic Recovery at home, and by extension to the world. I pray for this.
Looking for inspiration yesterday, some words occurred to me, which I tweeted, as follows :
"Have faith, just believe. Everything will be all right, by the grace of God."
I sincerely believe that shall be so.
|Posted on October 13, 2013 at 4:11 PM||comments ()|
Although some positive soundbites were coming out of Washington as at Friday, there seems no pathway at the moment that could facilitate a decision by Thursday, 17th October, when the authorised fiscal instruments need to be extended.
The U.S. Debt which stands at some $16.7 Trillion, is a sizeable amount, but with the essence and integrity that is the United States of America, the sum is precisely just an overdraft for the productive economy whose turnover is some four trillion dollars per annum.
The main obstacle to the pathway is the President's unwillingness to water-down the Obamacare, which has already been signed and put onto the Statute. The Republicans would like to see it repealed or revoked or at least re-negotiated. It becomes clear to understand why, when the cost implications for the working man and woman are put into focus.
Today on the Huckabee show on Fox News, a woman interviewee stated that her medical insurance costs were previously $75 a month, but under Obamacare her insurance company will not extend this cover but is able to offer her cover at some $361 a month. This is an increase of some 381 percent!
Clearly this would not be affordable by most people who were happy previously paying $75 a month. Clearly it is not fair, and probably penablises the swing voters who voted for Mr Obama at 6h November, thinking Obamacare is a necessary and good measure and useful to everyone in the tough times. Few may have realised that the way it is structured, it frustrates the people it is meant to serve.
People were happy to see Obamacare come into being, imagining it to be somewhat similar to the National Health Service in the United Kingdom, which brings universal health care benefits to the vast majority of the population at a cost that is levied upon each working individual to add to a pot that serves the whole nation. That was the charter granted under kind King George in 1947, even when the national debt of the UK was, at that time, a massive £6 billion. At that time, the implementation of the NHS service brought many benefits to the economy, the creation of many hospitals which could serve the wounded soldiers who had just returned from the war, the creation of alternative jobs in nursing for people who were previously engaged in the war effort, and together with this scheme the necessary creation of hospitals, training colleges, rehabilitation centres, psychiatric hospitals and so on.
The NHS has done Britian proud, and is reputed to be the best in the world. It puts peoples' health first.
My suggestion is that something tailored along the lines of the British National Health Service may be something our American friends should consider. If it be called Obamacare, that is perfect as this President has championed it on behalf of the citizens whom he cares about so deeply. The costing and delivery of such a service must be perhaps re-worked so that it offers universal medical coverage at an affordable price for the average citizen. Perhaps creating some pool of money on behalf of the unwaged and the retirees to supplement contributions made by working individuals would prove fair and affordable.
Definitely the lady interviewed by Mr Huckabee would like her medical insurance cover to be available at a price similar to one previously ($75 a month).
With this in mind, it may prove practical to re-introduce some elements of this Bill for renegotiations.
On this I do believe the Republicans have a point which should be re-considered.
However, the Debt Ceiling issue is of prime urgency. If a decision is not reached by 17th October, then it seems the alternative will be the signing in of an additional amount under a Presidential Prerogative under the 14th Amendment, to safeguard the interests and economy of the United States.
I have highest regard for Mr Obama, but I would suggest that the Obamacare bill needs to be re-worked so it delivers benefits to the people it is meant to serve, and does not instead cause hardships working individuals or impose conditions on employers which all would not be able or willing to meet.
Hopefully with the rescheduling of some elements of the Obamacare bill, the main obstacle would be cleared for the Republicans and Democrats, both Representatives and Senators, to sit down and in a spirit of bi-partisan co-operation sign in the extension of the fiscal instrument to enable the Debt Ceiling raise. For a nation of some 330 million people, a multiplier of 4K* per head would give a very reasonable figure (say, $1.32 Trillion) for the next twelve months, enabling the economy to add to the gains made since Mr Obama became President. In view of the continuing Recovery and the jobs created and the debt burden of $2.5 Trillion reduced recently, I guess the bankers would call it a bankable proposition.
This necessary and prudent step will enable confidence to once again fill every home around the world, so that all people can be busy and productive and nations produce and transport and exchange their unique resources with the rest of the world. May the worldwide economic Recovery continue, so that in due time, it may turn to a common Prosperity for all people of the world. For that I pray.
*Postscript. Figure should of course be 4K, and not just 4.