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Honest Information, Profitable Trading

Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

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Positive actions would make everything good

Posted on October 29, 2013 at 7:08 AM Comments comments ()
Following in the math of the sequestration cuts, followed by uncertainity about the U.S. Debt Ceiling raise, and the unwanted shutdown and furloughs, it seems apparent that confidence has taken a bit of a knock, especially with regards to the United States economy, but obviously timely positive action would restore that. 
 
The news that Ms Janet Yellen was nominated by Mr Obama to the chair of the Federal Reserve was actually happy news to the markets, welcoming this dove of the financial system, assured that the punchbowl would be replenished and the taper would be quite some time away now. 
 
Once that nomination is confirmed by one and all, that would send the right signal and boost the confidence that the economy needs right now, in view of the temporary fix of the nation's capacity to continue funding itself until only 15th January 2014. 
 
Around that time Chairman Ben Bernanke steps down, and willing bi-partisan co-operation to extend
the reserve balance capacity and support Ms Yellen in her post will ensure great and much needed stability to the world financial system, and not only to that of the United States.
 
The housing numbers yesterday were obviously disappointing, indicating a shake in the confidence of house buyers.  That is but natural, in view of the uncertainity created by the last-moment and then only such a short temporary fix of the situation. 
 
When I was in California and Las Vegas last year, October and November, I met lots of people and heard their stories about how hopeful they are, and how they are happy working hard, to buy their first house and know things are okay with their economy.  These were people who are taxi-drivers, concierges, receptionists, cleaners, waiters, waiteresses, a scientist working for an oil major, people who had made America their home, and who were sharing in the American dream.
 
It can obviously help the well-being of the nation if normal lending practices continue, where the individual man or woman and families are encouraged to buy their own houses, with the confidence in the system that things will continue positively, so they can believe in the virtue of borrowing and investing for the future. 
 
The oil price on both sides of the Atlantic is so high, and hopefully needs to be around the $85 mark to encourage normal growth in the economies outside the G20 nations.  Their depleted reserves and devalued currencies vis a vis the major currencies don't give them a chance.  A dose of kindness now would greatly assist growth throughout the world, which would bring great mutual benefits to all nations.  When we eat the food that we can so easily buy which has been exported from some country, we must spare a thought for the people there, who may not be able to afford such items in their own countries.  When I wear my beautifully stitched shirt, my heart sends blessings to the factory workers in Bangladesh.  It was heartening news to hear of American companies giving them continued support and helping them make the textile industry safe for workers. 
 
With such friendship and trade between nations, each cog will help turn the small wheel which in turn will drive the greater wheel, and the path to continued economic Recovery, and yes, ultimately a growing Prosperity for all, shall continue.  For that I pray.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 
 

Stimulus? Taper? Where we headed?

Posted on September 27, 2013 at 2:36 PM Comments comments ()
In his penultimate testimony recently, Federal Chief Ben Bernanke suggested that the QE measures had greatly helped the economy. 
 
The infusion of money did indeed stabilise the economy and create jobs on an on-going monthly basis, helping people buy autos and houses, and adding to consumer confidence in the U.S., which has become one of the fastest recovering nations post the 2008-crash. The QE measures introduced in August 2011 helped to propel the economy from a negative loss of confidence to a positive full of hope and promise and enterprise culture.  The QE measures helped to finance the government departments as well as the social net, and has got some of the pick-and-shovel jobs under way, although not as many as may have been envisaged. 
 
Secretary for the Treasury Jack Lew is characterised as pleading for action on the issue of the debt ceiling, but of course this issue cannot have escaped anyone's attention.  A logical time for resolution of this issue in somewhere mid to end October, when Mr Bernanke may be stepping down, having served his nation in a most admirable way.
 
The $40 billion a month stimulus under the first QE measure must have clocked up a trillion just after two years and one month.  The additional stimulus of $45 billion a month in buying of mortgage-backed securities has been in place for nearly a year, and that tots up another half trillion or so.  All told, the authorised stimulus which was the debt ceiling was around $1.45 trillion, plus a further $700 billion from banks and private or public concerns.  The money has swirled in the system and created much happiness for so many people, and sustained livelihoods and restored confidence, not only in the USA, but around the world.  The dark days were when diamond merchants in India were standing idle, because American men had stopped buying diamond rings for their fiancées.  The whole supply chain from South Africa to Antwerp to Tel Aviv felt the effect.  Thankfully, those days are gone, and we all have to thank the return to confidence that has enabled consumers believe in a good life and live with hope.  When people have received loans and mortgages, their purpose has been filled with joy.  May that continue for the foreseeable future, as hard work and enterprise turn into wealth, going round and serving more.  A growing circle of enterprise and industry in each nation has given added confidence to increased trade as well as growth at home.  When the global locomotive of growth drives along, it is music to the ears of people everywhere, be it China, India, the Middle East, Africa, or South America, not to forget Japan and Australia.  Growth and enterprise is good for the world, as each nation trades their unique resources, creating work and purpose, confidence and enterprise.   
 
The cash-flow that the stimulus measures provided have been a great blessing, creating many jobs, creating many livelihoods, helping many families survive and recover from the savage recession that beset the world, and with the creation of activity, opening of factories and workshops, improving purchase of goods both utilitarian and luxury, improved number of travellers and visitors globally, it seems the economies are set for further growth to Prosperity. 
 
Secretary of Treasury Jack Lew and colleagues will know what measures are necessary.  President Obama and House Speaker Boehner will ascertain what is necessary and prudent for continuation of the economic Recovery.  Positive developments on this with bi-partisan co-operation will herald the path to Prosperity.  Trusting in good judgement, no one should have concern. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

Light a candle....

Posted on September 24, 2013 at 5:10 AM Comments comments ()
The economic news seems pretty positive all round, for continued worldwide economic Recovery.  India of course is out of sync on the benchmark interest rate, but it is a dynamic economy where the leadership are a little bit too cautious to accelerate growth.  For the moment it seems it will just motor along steadily, and blaming the high inflation on the scarcity of onions, which they are plentifully exporting.
 
The Greek economy seems to be on the mend, with a secondary surplus expected. With a nation with a population of 20 million and a large area, perhaps they need to encourage people who enjoy farming.  The potential must be huge with good climate, abundance of water and good weather as well. 
 
The situation in Spain seems pretty positive too, with a growth of 0.2 percent expected for the second quarter.  The benefits of creating jobs and filling up the empty housing, additionally with putting more buses on the roads to service secluded areas more frequently, will surely add to the growth.  Blessed with good weather and friendly people, I believe there is huge potential for continued growth in Spain.
A Latin version of Hollywood and Bollywood must surely be a possibility, with intercontinental co-productions?
 
Germany, well the situation seems so good, with Mme Angela Merkel back in the driving seat.
 
As regards the U.S., the talk of taper seems both promising and cautionary.  As Treasury Minister Jack Lew has suggested, the Debt Ceiling issue needs addressing quite soon.  The talk to me seems like a tapered candle, or a washer to be tapered on a lathe...I suppose Mr Bernanke will suggested what will need to be done.  The debt ceiling fix of a $1.45 Trillion in August 2011 was a job well done, adding to the money supply and creating the cash flow that has translated into so many jobs, a pick up in the housing market, and continued growth in the US economy, creating heatmaps of happiness for so many more people.  The stockmarkets and the banks seem in robust health, creating a huge pool of capital that will service the needs of people as and when they need to borrow and spend.  Cash rich companies like Apple attest to that fact. 
 
What would be great would be perhaps the creation of 500,000 jobs per month on a costing of $7 billion per month.  If that much additional capital was infused into the system by way of the taper, that would be just great.  Five years after the collapse of October 2008, the economic systems seem in much better shape, with strong financial institutions and safeguards in place.  A steady worldwide Economic Recovery seems to have been achieved, through co-operation and understanding of nations and the grace of God.  In celebration and to continue with Recovery, the world counts on seeing the Republicans and the Democrats in Washington support a cordial agreement, and light a new candle to Prosperity.
 
Ladies and gentlemen, you may step up to the alter, and light the candle that will add substance to the drams of humanity.
 
Amen.
 
(written by Duru-darshan)
 

Oil price is far too high, despite accomodative policies

Posted on August 8, 2013 at 3:29 AM Comments comments ()
For a continuation of the worldwide economic Recovery, in my opinion the price of Oil is far too high  - both WTI and Brent, which hit parity recently and have been both in backwardation on the far futures contracts.
 
The holding of or reduction of benchmark rates in accommodative policies is brilliant, and the only way forward.  The Australian Reserve Bank, U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of England are setting the tone for continuation of Recovery.
 
Mr Raghuram Rajan has been appointed Governor at the Reserve Bank of India, and assumed his post there on 5th September.  In his name are coded the most fond Hindu wishes in Godhead, just as they chant Raghupati Ragav Rajaram.  Hope he will set policies to utilise the various fiscal tools he has at his disposal, and help renew expansionary growth in the Indian economy.  It is noted that he is a gregarious, media-friendly personality, so presumably the world will hear more about what he has in mind. 
 
Oil price at anything above $85 per barrel is too high, and will continue to slow down the world economies.  When people are unable to feed themselves and their children in Yemen and other places, most of the developing world I would surmise, it is time for the OPEC nations to pause and consider what would be best for everybody.  Growing unemployment in South Africa (over 25 percent) and other countries, where social security is not a state policy, does not indicate a robust world picture.  It is imperative that the Oil price be reduced, for continuation of worldwide economic Recovery, which in turn will be able to sustain infrastructure growth in the OPEC and other nations. 
 
Israel with an unemployment rate of over 25 percent could do with international goodwill for their technologically advanced products, and a peace in that region can only help bring the oil price down and help the economies in that region.  In a cooling off of tensions lies the way forward to peace and prosperity.
 
Enlightened souls who help govern the policies, the duty is yours to do the needful.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Right selection, with confidence, will restore Prosperity

Posted on July 26, 2013 at 8:40 AM Comments comments ()
Yesterday I passed a beautiful shop, Nails of Promise, in Gants Hill, Ilford.
 
Previously, I had been to view this shop, when it was lying empty.  At that time, somebody had just stopped trading there as a Training Provider .  The empty premises were naturally depressive.
The figures didn't stack up for me and a partner for a venture we had in mind.
 
But yesterday when I saw the shop, I was really impressed.  The proprietor, Tony Fox, who is from Brazil, has turned the shop into a beautiful salon, specialising in doing nails.  Now that is a service people like, and most ladies are prepared to pay the charges for beautification.  Ton told me he has a full book, busy every day, and has to turn customers away until he adds a trainee in the very near future.  "Most young people don't realize that the first thing in a business is customer service : how to attend customers and attend to their needs.  And training obviously takes time and attention."
 
He took the empty shell of a shop and has done it up beautifully, with an ivory white laminate floor, complementing walls, lights and mirrors, ceramic desks, swivel chairs, sofas, table lamps and a slim chandelier. You can well imagine what sort of figure conscious customers come in here.
 
He did all the interior decorating himself, with a budget of about thirty thousand pounds.  It's taken courage and confidence to create this salon, but it is doing well, and will grow in the near future.
 
In this location, most other businesses would not have survived, because there are other competing establishments not far away.  But a Nail Salon, great promise.  I draw the lesson from this that the right choice of business (or even a political candidate), backed with promise, will restore Prosperity. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 

Hello Everybody....Oakland, Detroit, Miami

Posted on July 21, 2013 at 12:36 PM Comments comments ()
The Chapter 9 Bankruptcy of Detroit last Friday is a stark reminder of what happens to an economy when trust breaks down between communities and disrupts the social fabric, leading to decline and decay and a sad breakdown of an economy.
 
I understand from cursory reading of books on Detroit that the 1967 riots sparked off a distrust between the communities, and may have been the turning point for the breakdown of the economy which has now resulted to this sad, sad decline.
 
No two children of the same family will be totally understanding or obedient to their parent(s), but if family members work in harmony and common objectives, they tend to be more successful.  That rule of harmony holds true for organisations as well as for communities, there is no reason why it should not hold true for cities or even nations, hence last week I referred to Cario and Oakland but of course I should also have mentioned Miami.
 
Just imagine Detroit in the 1950s, which now appears to have been its heyday, full of harmony and enterprise, inspiring dreams, the American dream, contributing to its status as a city of great reputation worldwide, with its ballrooms, museums, theatres, skyscrapers....The industry and enterprise was there to give a livelihood to the 465,000 residents there, who soon grew to over a million and to nearly two million towards the peak.  The infrastructure was added to as it served the citizens and visitors, and the town grew to a city. 
 
The decline has seen people leave, mainly white people leaving the city to suburbs, leaving a ghetto at its core, the deserted buildings falling apart, now ready for demolition or refurbishment. 
 
The population has fallen, leaving the municipality with an income of about $1 billion a year, when it probably needs at least a billion-and-a-half just to service the interest on the bonds. 
 
A solution may be repopulation, with some company and a group of New Economy companies able to generate a lot of jobs and sustain the livelihoods of the citizens.  Obviously there is a lot of talent and raw energy, that can be purposefully employed and will create wealth and sustain the people and regenerate the city.  All that is now needed is for a few men and women of vision to locate their wealth generating companies there, and give a boost to the regeneration of the housing and public buildings.
The talent is there, you cannot stand and see a great city die.  Hopefully, the government can make a special provision for a funding programme to regenerate this great iconic city with its beautiful landmarks. 
 
As harmony exists between people, so will Recovery and Prosperity bloom in their midst. Today, I pray for restoration of faith in Detroit. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

Hello, Oakland, Cairo, Goma

Posted on July 16, 2013 at 9:12 AM Comments comments ()
The people are not happy with the acquittal in the U.S. of George Zimmermann, accused of shooting dead the teenager Trayvon Martin.  It seems people both black and white and all ethnic groups are pouring out onto the streets of Oakland and Los Angeles, California.  According to the law of the land, the jury found the accused aquitted, but the people are not satisfied with this verdict. 
 
In the minds and hearts of the people protesting for justice for the late Trayvon Martin, the verdict delivered is not what they expected.  I don't know if they are likely to now lodge an appeal for a re-trial, but the current situation suggests that may be an option to cool people down. 
 
Meanwhile, in Cairo the pro-Mursi suppoters are filling the streets and the situation is far from peaceful.  Here about 20 million out of 86 million of the Egyptian people voted for Dr Mursi.  He seems to be the accommodative voice of peace and tolerance in this region, and obviously the U.S. were happy to see him in charge.  The Muslim Brotherhood under his guidance provides an orthodox but democratic brand of Islam, which itself means Democracy, and keeping within their cultural interpretation, are a progressive people.  The U.S. educated Dr Mursi and his supporters insist that the deposting was a coup d'état, counting on the U.S. to withdraw aid support for Egypt, which would hurt the nation.  An accommodative stance for the Egyptian military leaders would be to give Dr Mursi a position in the political top.   
 
Goma in the Democratic Republic of Congo is a sad place, a country that is blessed with fertile land, plentiful rain, and used to provide plenty when it was Belgian Congo.  Alas, the dam at Matadi which was built to generate a huge amount of power, probably needs technical know-how to keep functioning and potentially provide the power that could electrify a good part of that region.  It seems sad that a million people of bare means are often being driven round and round in circles by a military that must now become their well-wishers and protectors and guides, so that the potential of this region can find fuller expression.
 
My Facebook friend Marc Allen, the living apostle of New Age thinking, sees sea changes around the globe which will bring changes in the collective consciousness.  His words today inspired a recap of the above scenarios.  Humanity loves peace, and strives for justice.  It is part of the unfolding picture today and when the leaders make efforts to provide pragmatic solutions to the situations that face them, then hope is there peace will be restored. 
 
Mahatma Gandhi popularised the concept of Satyagraha - non-violent struggle for justice.  Martin Luther King found success for his struggle with this method, although regretfully his life was cut short.  In South Africa, the great soul Nelson Mandela is glorious proof of this philosophy. 
 
I pray for peaceful outcome to all these situations.  As we emit peace from our hearts, so may peace reciprocate  from those around us.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

The magic of human chemistry.

Posted on June 23, 2013 at 4:50 PM Comments comments ()
There is something about the chemistry, about the language and communication of the mind and soul, which brings people together or drives them apart.  It is this chemistry between people that I would blame for.....or, rather, a change in the chemistry between people that I would blame for separation and divorce. 
 
I am surprised that Napoleon Hill was not given the Noble Prize, but then again there is no category in the Noble Prizes into which his work fits.  Perhaps, on that point, I would suggest there should be another category created by the Trustees of the Noble Foundation.  The Increasing of Human Understanding.
 
Napoleon Hill interviewed 500 of the most successful people in America in the 1920s, and from those interviews he wrote many articles, published in his Hill's Success Magazine.  But a few people made a huge impression on him, viz Andrew Carnegie, Firestone, Henry Ford, Dr.Alexander Graham Bell, and Dr. Thomas Alva Edison.  And yes, Mr Edwin Barnes, who said it could not be done, that is to say, the writing of a blueprint for success based on the interviews with successful people.
 
Napoleon Hill turned that into a questions: Who said it could not be done? and went on to publish his Think and Grow Rich, a book that sells well throughout the world, in many languages, in number just after the sales of the Bible, Koran and Bhagavad-Gita and other religious masterpieces.
 
In his research, Napoleon Hill says that the first three years of a marriage often have petty squabbles and friction, but the love that exists between the two will carry it through.  The next fifteen years are those in which the lucky couple start to look alike in their eye movements and thinking, influencing their value judgements and expressions, meaning the happy couple have achieved understanding of one another, and a state of harmony exists between them that we attribute to the magic of chemistry.
A state of harmony, an instinctive understanding, an automatic understanding of mutual goals. It is like both have the same road-map, or at least complementing road maps.
 
Those for whom a partnership does not work, it seems are rather like a horse-drawn carriage where the horses want to pull in differing directions.  Where it is not possible to bring harmony of direction, abandonment of the journey becomes the alternative.  Such is what happens in business partnerships as well, and in politics as well.
 
A question that may help bring harmony back is : What was the road map that brought the partners together in the first place?  Can it be modified and restored?  If the answer is Yes, then hope still remains for reunion and success.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 

My blogs over the last 30 days

Posted on January 7, 2013 at 8:36 AM Comments comments ()
I am glad to note that there are at least a few hundred visitors who like to read my blog each day.
 
My blogs over the last 30 days have been as follows :-
 
  -  Right to work demos in Michigan
  -  If the Fiscal Cliff a Roller-Coaster, or is it a Merry-go-round?
  -  25 Years after they became Rich
  -  You can sense the sense of duty Mr Obama has to America.
  -  What's up, Beverley Hills?
  -  Children dying of measles in Larkana, Sindh.
 
Now I have over 1,000 blogs to date, and nearly 96 readers have responded with some comments, I am glad to note.
 
Recently I have had blog comments on issues on which I wrote about a year ago!
But just goes to show, readers read something, bookmark it, and then when they see the comments have made good, they pay a compliment.  That has been in the nature of my blogs on Tree thinning, share prices (Bank of America, J P Morgan, Thomas Cook, LinkedIn, MacDonalds, and so on). 
 
Let me know what you think, you can fill in the comments under the blog.
 
Thanks in advance and Kind Regards,
 
Duru-darshan.
 
 

What's up, Beverley Hills?

Posted on December 31, 2012 at 2:09 PM Comments comments ()
Beverley Hills is one cool place, quite expensive, but you like it none the less.  It's that vibration of energy, of dreams, of works in progress that gives Beverley Hills its buzz.  It's a city of Sundays, of leisurely lunches at the restaurants, a sedate stroll down the Wiltshire Boulevard, where, if money is no object, you're the King.  Or Queen, or Rockstar, or Celebrity, or the hopeful wannabee. 
 
Some of the streets seem to run for miles, so it is very useful to have precise locations.  Taxi fares are quite expensive, with add-ons after certain times of night or bank holidays.  Try using buses to make it cheaper?  Not enough time to figure it out on a short visit.  Taxis from the hotel always seem to have a surcharge added.  The ones you hail charge what's on the meter.  Big difference.
 
There is so much to see and do in L.A.
 
One morning, I and my companions headed to the Walk of Fame.  There's a star that says Cubby Brocolli.  Another says Burt Reynolds.  Another, oh yes, Jane Fonda!
 
There's a cinema school opposite, that does guided tours. 
 
I opt to buy a few trinkets from the shop. There's a nice golden Oscar, that reads 'For Achievement'.  That's a gift that will be appreciated by somebody. 
 
Our stay at the Pasadena Hilton was comfortable.  It has that home-from-home charm, from where we visited the Santa Anita Park for the races, the Breeders Cup; Chateau Marmont, a funky nightclub; The W, or should I say the famous W, which has a breath-taking all-round view of L.A.; a reasonably priced drinking place called Mastros; and the Beverley Hills Hotel, famous in an Eddie Murphy film. 
 
As movies are once again starting to make good returns, and audience numbers starting to improve, I believe the talents of Hollywood will have a hand in contributing to the revival and Recovery. 
 
When I saw a railway line was being laid from Pasadena, I realised this place is still young, and still growing, and huge potential lies in this place.
 
With this short write-up of my very short visit to L.A., I can only say that I do hope to visit there again in the future.
 
Wishing you all a Very Happy New Year, and may Joy and Good Health be with you.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

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