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Honest Information, Profitable Trading

Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

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DOW passes 16,000 - where next?

Posted on November 19, 2013 at 4:21 AM Comments comments ()
Good morning, readers.  As the DOW passed 16,000 yesterday, I didn't write anything at that moment.  Regular readers of my column/blog will surely know that I was one of the few to suggest the DOW would go past 14,000 - then past 15,000 (the magic of 15,000) - and only recently 16,000.  I was of the view that the DOW could even do 17,000 this year, in the next five weeks or so.  A thousand points in say 25 working days, is it possible?  I shall wait to assess the markets further before I would commit to such a suggestion. 
 
In the meantime, I imagine a lot of punters will take some money off the table, and put into alternative markets.  India SENSEX has seen more inflows in last few days.
 
If not this year, then certainly I believe the DOW will hit 17,000 in next few months, on the proviso that the feel-good is assisted by the candy distribution, on which the panel will decide in the US this week.
 
That's all for now.
 
I wish joy and success to all my readers, in Netherlands, Fuzhou, California, India, Kenya, Tokyo, etc, etc.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
Caveat : Everyone trades entirely at their own risk, I am merely sharing my views.
 
 
(c) Copyright  19th November 2013, Durudarshan H. Dadlani.
 
 
 

Stimulus, Housing, Wall Street and Obamacare...

Posted on October 30, 2013 at 5:30 PM Comments comments ()
The news from the Federal Reserve that it expects of maintain the Stimulus at $85 billion a month in bond purchases should have been great news for the markets, yet they headed slightly lower.  The fact that there was no mention of the sequester was a bonus.  The damper was I believe the news that Senator Paul is prepared to veto the appointment of Ms Janet Yellen to head the Fed.  It seems the tea-party Republicans have been having a crack at bringing down the government for the last three and a half years, and they are trying to give it another go.  Ultimately, it seems that good common sense will prevail in the good of the nation, and Ms Yellen may yet take control of the spigot and give everyone some punch for the New Year.  At least the majority of analysts at CNBC hold that view, and people are expecting the markets to strengthen further : will the DOW test 16,000 before the year-end?
 
The housing figures were disappointing, but you cannot blame the individual homebuyers.  The air of uncertainity created by the previously on-going sequesteration cuts, then the partial government shutdown, then the delay in agreement on the debt ceiling raise, must have compounded to weigh down sentiment.  Yet it seems the hedge funds have purchased lot of housing stock, and put it into the rental sector, and house prices have been buoyed up.  This may be good for the hedge funds, but for the individual homebuyers it means having to begrudgingly pay rent instead of a mortgage, but a roof is a roof anyhow, and thank God for investors who have the wherewithal to buy and rent them out.
 
Once the air is clear, and assuming the punchbowl is replenished, hopefully until the end of 2014, then housing Recovery should gain some stability.  For the individual homebuyers, it will be a great point to join in in the party.
 
Under Mr Obama and the Fed's accommodative policies, Wall Street has done well, now reaching for a record high.  Money has been invested in equities, turned to working capital for the corporations, income for investors, and built up a substantial cushion for the pension pots and investments.  So far, it has been a good reservoir of capital, and providing confidence is maintained, will continue to be so. 
 
What maintains the house should be good for everybody.  Of course one or two senators may not care much. I hope they will not inflict a lot of pain on the system as a whole by sticking to their guns too rigidly.  The climate is one for accommodative policies of co-operation, so that the world may avoid another recession soon after the longest one in recent history is hardly over.  Just for the sake of humanity, they have to rethink the consequences of their stance.
 
Obamacare is a great idea if it were like the National Health Service in Britain; but it seems the way Medicaid is being expanded to cater for the people who were previously without cover is placing substantial burdens on the system.  Quite a lot of people are having to pay much more then they did previously in order for additional people to get cover.  This just does not seem fair.  Perhaps a parallel stand-alone system of walk-in centres could be sponsored by the government to cover people who did not previously have cover, so that those who were happy with Medicaid could possibly be happy with them once again.  As I have remarked previously in my column, the NHS in Britain evolved for 40 years from the Poor Laws of 1907 to Royal Charter in 1947.  Such a grandoise system cannot evolve in a short few years, and the teething troubles with the glitch in the computers may be the least of the problems.
 
All things being equal, 30th November is not far away, for people to see how Obamacare is rolled out.
I would have suggested even more patience so that a balanced, truly Affordable Health Care may evolve for the United States. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

My blogs in the last 7 days, and Referring Traffic

Posted on October 5, 2013 at 2:31 PM Comments comments ()
Hi everyone, how are you?
I wrote and published several blog posts over the last seven days, as follows :-
  -  Germany a good model of employment
  -  Forward guidance and the UK Housing market
  -  Light a candle....
  -  Stimulus? Taper?  Where we headed?
  -  Mr Bernanke's penultimate testimony before he leaves the Fed.
  -  The paradox in inflation
  -  My blog posts this month
  -  Thanks for visiting my website.
  -  Bi-partisan Agreement or 14th Amendment, either way Debt Ceiling will be raised.
  -  Netherlands, Kansas City, Kharkov....welcome, welcome!
 
Over the 7 days, I note Referring Traffic to my website and blog (www.durudarshan.co.uk)
from the following.  I express my thanks to the staff at these organisations, for listing my website and blog....without you, all these readers wouldn't have found me so easily.  Thanks!
     -  Google.co.uk
     -  woman.seopower.su
     -  Google.co.in
     -  Stumbleupon.com
     -  t.co
     -  webconfs.com
     -  Google.com
     -  durudarshan.co.uk
     -  api.twitter.com
     -  News.Google.com
 
I am pleased to note that the value of my website is going up, and I am getting more visitors each month.  I am particularly pleased to note that I rank tops with Google.  That is thanks to my parents for having given me this unique name.  (Duru is the North Star, and darshan means obeisance). 
 
I hope you find something interesting to read on my website or blog.  I like to tune in to receive any interesting information, most of which I share with my readers.   
 
This morning, I went and helped clean the LDS Chapel here in Ilford.  I opened the windows, then squirted some bleach into the toilet pans on all three floors.  Whilst this was doing its job, I moved the chairs in the Sacrament Hall and hovered the carpet.  Just nice and easy, and the exercise did me good.  In the peace and quiet of physical labour, the mind becomes quiet and receives the Eurekas!
 
Until next time,
 
Wish you a great weekend.
 
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 

My blog posts this month

Posted on September 28, 2013 at 5:43 PM Comments comments ()
Thanks for visiting my blog and website, I hope you found something interesting to read.
 
There seems a constant swirl of stacks of information, both online and in printed form.
 
Most of the relevant information that makes an impact on affairs is both time sensitive and scarce,
that is the information that I try and gather and interpret, for my own reference as well as to share with my readers.
 
I wrote these blogs this month....I am happy a lot of people enjoy reading my take on various topical issues, with several thousand visiting my blog just last Friday and Saturday, especially from Chicago.
 
  Hello guys, wear your thinking caps on...
  Mr Bernanke's penultimate testimony before he leaves the Fed.
  Forward guidance and the UK housing market
  Light a cancle...
  Thanks for visiting my website
  Notes from the LDS chapel, Ilford
  Germany a good model of employment
  The paradox in inflation
  Stimulus?  Taper?  Where we headed?
  Bank of England forward guidance.
 
Have a read, and let me know what you think. 
In the meantime, thanks to all the readers who have written in their
compliments and suggestions.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 

Stimulus? Taper? Where we headed?

Posted on September 27, 2013 at 2:36 PM Comments comments ()
In his penultimate testimony recently, Federal Chief Ben Bernanke suggested that the QE measures had greatly helped the economy. 
 
The infusion of money did indeed stabilise the economy and create jobs on an on-going monthly basis, helping people buy autos and houses, and adding to consumer confidence in the U.S., which has become one of the fastest recovering nations post the 2008-crash. The QE measures introduced in August 2011 helped to propel the economy from a negative loss of confidence to a positive full of hope and promise and enterprise culture.  The QE measures helped to finance the government departments as well as the social net, and has got some of the pick-and-shovel jobs under way, although not as many as may have been envisaged. 
 
Secretary for the Treasury Jack Lew is characterised as pleading for action on the issue of the debt ceiling, but of course this issue cannot have escaped anyone's attention.  A logical time for resolution of this issue in somewhere mid to end October, when Mr Bernanke may be stepping down, having served his nation in a most admirable way.
 
The $40 billion a month stimulus under the first QE measure must have clocked up a trillion just after two years and one month.  The additional stimulus of $45 billion a month in buying of mortgage-backed securities has been in place for nearly a year, and that tots up another half trillion or so.  All told, the authorised stimulus which was the debt ceiling was around $1.45 trillion, plus a further $700 billion from banks and private or public concerns.  The money has swirled in the system and created much happiness for so many people, and sustained livelihoods and restored confidence, not only in the USA, but around the world.  The dark days were when diamond merchants in India were standing idle, because American men had stopped buying diamond rings for their fiancées.  The whole supply chain from South Africa to Antwerp to Tel Aviv felt the effect.  Thankfully, those days are gone, and we all have to thank the return to confidence that has enabled consumers believe in a good life and live with hope.  When people have received loans and mortgages, their purpose has been filled with joy.  May that continue for the foreseeable future, as hard work and enterprise turn into wealth, going round and serving more.  A growing circle of enterprise and industry in each nation has given added confidence to increased trade as well as growth at home.  When the global locomotive of growth drives along, it is music to the ears of people everywhere, be it China, India, the Middle East, Africa, or South America, not to forget Japan and Australia.  Growth and enterprise is good for the world, as each nation trades their unique resources, creating work and purpose, confidence and enterprise.   
 
The cash-flow that the stimulus measures provided have been a great blessing, creating many jobs, creating many livelihoods, helping many families survive and recover from the savage recession that beset the world, and with the creation of activity, opening of factories and workshops, improving purchase of goods both utilitarian and luxury, improved number of travellers and visitors globally, it seems the economies are set for further growth to Prosperity. 
 
Secretary of Treasury Jack Lew and colleagues will know what measures are necessary.  President Obama and House Speaker Boehner will ascertain what is necessary and prudent for continuation of the economic Recovery.  Positive developments on this with bi-partisan co-operation will herald the path to Prosperity.  Trusting in good judgement, no one should have concern. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

Light a candle....

Posted on September 24, 2013 at 5:10 AM Comments comments ()
The economic news seems pretty positive all round, for continued worldwide economic Recovery.  India of course is out of sync on the benchmark interest rate, but it is a dynamic economy where the leadership are a little bit too cautious to accelerate growth.  For the moment it seems it will just motor along steadily, and blaming the high inflation on the scarcity of onions, which they are plentifully exporting.
 
The Greek economy seems to be on the mend, with a secondary surplus expected. With a nation with a population of 20 million and a large area, perhaps they need to encourage people who enjoy farming.  The potential must be huge with good climate, abundance of water and good weather as well. 
 
The situation in Spain seems pretty positive too, with a growth of 0.2 percent expected for the second quarter.  The benefits of creating jobs and filling up the empty housing, additionally with putting more buses on the roads to service secluded areas more frequently, will surely add to the growth.  Blessed with good weather and friendly people, I believe there is huge potential for continued growth in Spain.
A Latin version of Hollywood and Bollywood must surely be a possibility, with intercontinental co-productions?
 
Germany, well the situation seems so good, with Mme Angela Merkel back in the driving seat.
 
As regards the U.S., the talk of taper seems both promising and cautionary.  As Treasury Minister Jack Lew has suggested, the Debt Ceiling issue needs addressing quite soon.  The talk to me seems like a tapered candle, or a washer to be tapered on a lathe...I suppose Mr Bernanke will suggested what will need to be done.  The debt ceiling fix of a $1.45 Trillion in August 2011 was a job well done, adding to the money supply and creating the cash flow that has translated into so many jobs, a pick up in the housing market, and continued growth in the US economy, creating heatmaps of happiness for so many more people.  The stockmarkets and the banks seem in robust health, creating a huge pool of capital that will service the needs of people as and when they need to borrow and spend.  Cash rich companies like Apple attest to that fact. 
 
What would be great would be perhaps the creation of 500,000 jobs per month on a costing of $7 billion per month.  If that much additional capital was infused into the system by way of the taper, that would be just great.  Five years after the collapse of October 2008, the economic systems seem in much better shape, with strong financial institutions and safeguards in place.  A steady worldwide Economic Recovery seems to have been achieved, through co-operation and understanding of nations and the grace of God.  In celebration and to continue with Recovery, the world counts on seeing the Republicans and the Democrats in Washington support a cordial agreement, and light a new candle to Prosperity.
 
Ladies and gentlemen, you may step up to the alter, and light the candle that will add substance to the drams of humanity.
 
Amen.
 
(written by Duru-darshan)
 

Mr Bernanke's penulimate tesimony before he leaves the Fed.

Posted on September 19, 2013 at 5:56 PM Comments comments ()
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke made a cordial testimony yesterday, a month now before he is due to step down from office.  Essentially, he restated that the quantitative easing measures need to remain in place until the economic Recovery picks up further steam, but such measures have greatly benefitted the economic pickup and that the economy is strengthening thanks to such measures. 
 
There is nothing but appreciation for Ben Bernanke's handling of the Federal Reserve policies, and I admire this Statesman greatly.  His unique style has helped keep just that degree of suspense that is discretion, while at the same time sharing as much information as has been necessary to bolster stability.  The world stock markets got a boost after his testimony yesterday.
 
It remains to be seen how the Obama administration will fix the debt ceiling issue, which Treasury Secretary Jack Lew has indicated may fall due in October.  Will it be bi-partisan co-operation by the Republicans and the Democrats as before?  When everything is going so well, it is to be expected that they will push through the required votes to help Recovery stay on course, as would be both prudent and necessary.
 
Whoever is selected to be the next Fed Chairman, essentially the pro-growth policies are expected to stay in place. 
 
I have a hunch that the Dow Jones Industrial Index will either shoot for 17000 by the end of the year, or head up for 16000.  What the mind of man can conceive and believe, it can achieve.  I sense it will be possible.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

The world is swimming in money.....!

Posted on June 25, 2013 at 6:56 AM Comments comments ()
According to Reg Varney, the Fox news commentator, the world's central banks collectively have pumped in some Fifteen Trillion Dollars into the economies over the last few years.  This is a hugely interesting figure...it should suggest the world is swimming in money, and not in need of further stimulus at all at all...
 
So far as publicly available figures indicate, the U.S. raised its Debt Ceiling by $2.15 Trillion Dollars on 3rd August 2011, and thereafter via QE 2 and  QE 3 by a further $85 Billion a month, which has been trimmed by 1/12 since February 2013 since the Sequestration cuts kicked in. 
 
In the United Kingdom, some £375 Billion of Credit Easing facilities have been introduced by the Bank of England, all told, till currently.
 
I wonder which other central banks have printed that gigantic amount of cash and released it into the system. 
 
The current figures from Russia indicate a slow-down there, with GDP figures progressively being downwards, mainly due to lowering Oil prices on which the economy relies so heavily.  Oil prices in the global context are of course likely to head down further, if recession is to be avoided once again.
The current oil stockpiles in the Middle East and the Strategic Oil Reserves would corroborate this scenario, and it can only help the oil exporting nations to keep the oil price low for some time till economies can pick up again. 
 
To avert a slow-down at home which would impact the world, I believe the BRICS nations, with the exception of China, should consider a generous cut in the benchmark interest rate. I would suggest, that is the silver bullet, and they ought to utilise it.
 
China under the Rising Star of Chairman Xi is bound to do well and he likes progress and prosperity for his people; however, they are unlikely to keep on manufacturing goods cheaply and ship them out to the rest of the world, and on credit at that.  A greater demand and consumerism in China itself is likely, and a re-focus is probably causing the current mild hiccup.  It is a matter of record that when Honourable Xi was a rising star in his party, his comments and suggestions created a boom.  I cannot believe that now he is in charge, anything but the best will be possible for China. 
 
With increased trade between nations, and extension of credit facilities and investment into one another's cultures, a great hope of continuation of the world economic Recovery is always bright.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

My posts for the last 30 days, to 1st June

Posted on June 1, 2013 at 9:21 AM Comments comments ()
Hello Readers,
Thanks for your visits to my website and blog.  The stats are quite impressive to me anyway, with an average of 12,000 visitors a month over the last six months, with a total of 196,493 visitors so far since I started to blog in June 2011.  So the latest numbers indicate a gratifying growing number of readers, thanks to you all.  I hope you continue to find my blog informative on debates of contemporary concern In the world of finance, economics, philanthropy and other issues of human concern.
 
Anyway, my posts over the last 30 days were as follows, and you may wish to look them up and have a read :-
 
   Heavenly Father likes us to be joyful
 
  Ramdev Ayurvedic - Goodmayes Business Centre
 
  Winds, be thee still
 
  Hello, Dorking and Oakland
 
  What should we have instead of austerity
 
  Namaste, Indore!
 
  Welcome Amsterdam, Walnut, Atlanta
 
  The youth employment and the Retirement age.
 
  What's happening with the economy?
 
  Hello, Amsterdam.  Masseur voor Frozen shoulder.
 
That's it for the moment.  Wish you all an enjoyable weekend.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 

Monetary expansion - from Recovery to Prosperity

Posted on May 16, 2013 at 1:54 PM Comments comments ()
 
 
 
Thanks to Oscar for his comments re Monetary Expansion.
 
My comments are as follows :-

The banks were hoarding cash and then giving bonuses to their main staff. If more goes to the public, it would be great. That would turn the printed money breathe life into the economy. Once people borrow, they become centred on making a return on the money, so they can feed their families and also make enough to return it to the bank. That turns money into wealth - familes eating and consuming all kinds of things, thereby helping production and marketing, etc.
The Basel III strictures make banks have certain liquidity ratios, which is good, but banks somehow make it difficult for people to borrow, as most people who wish to borrow cannot meet the criteria. That is the crux of the matter. Where money is needed, there people often don’t have collateral. That is where I would suggest government has to lend money, i.e. authorise their money holders to lend, via government guarantees. That will be the way to get the economy moving and create wealth, from Recovery to Prosperity. That is my belief.

Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.

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