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Honest Information, Profitable Trading

Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

My Blog

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Hello Putian, Beijing, China....

Posted on October 23, 2013 at 3:29 PM Comments comments (9)
Recently I've had a lot of visitors to my blog and website from Putian as well as Beijing. 
 
I note the Indian Premier Dr Manmohan Singh has been to visit Beijing soon after his trip to Moscow, and
things are looking good for co-operation on peacefully observing each other's shared borders as well as increase in friendly relations and trade.
 
My personal hope is to become nominated by the Congress Party of India (UPA) as the Prime Ministerial candidate for May 2014.  Should my wish be fulfilled with approval of Rahul and Mrs Sonia Gandhi, I would be thrilled and would go to India straight away to start campaigning in earnest. 
 
I have a vision for India as a good neighbour to China, Russia, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Afghanistan and the whole region, as well as to unlock the huge potential that there obviously is for growth of infrastructure such as roads, bridges, dams, power generation, further irrigation, as well as housing, hospitals, schools, universities, and so on, which would utilise the resources and cater to the public, as well as use the skills and expertise internationally in building up this great nation.  I have lived in London the last 41 years, and see the n-th degree developments of this nation (United Kingdom) as something India could well try to aim for.  I imagine that with India's resources both of the peoples' savings and growing expectations of improvements in living standards, it would fit hand-in-glove. 
 
It is regrettable that there have been skirmishes on the international border with Pakistan, especially just after Dr Manmohan Singh-ji had constructive talks with Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif in New York recently. Mr Nawaz Sharif  has a great reputation as a man of his people and a positive personality, who would only wish the best for his people and continuation of peaceful co-existence with India.  The Indian PM has offered bilateral talks on this issue to find a resolution, and I sincerely hope common-sense and peace prevails once again.
 
I hope my readers will be able to make an accurate picture of what I would like to do, and I would welcome your comments on this matter.
 
In the meantime, I wish you a peaceful and happy evening.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 
 

My blog posts this month

Posted on September 28, 2013 at 5:43 PM Comments comments (42)
Thanks for visiting my blog and website, I hope you found something interesting to read.
 
There seems a constant swirl of stacks of information, both online and in printed form.
 
Most of the relevant information that makes an impact on affairs is both time sensitive and scarce,
that is the information that I try and gather and interpret, for my own reference as well as to share with my readers.
 
I wrote these blogs this month....I am happy a lot of people enjoy reading my take on various topical issues, with several thousand visiting my blog just last Friday and Saturday, especially from Chicago.
 
  Hello guys, wear your thinking caps on...
  Mr Bernanke's penultimate testimony before he leaves the Fed.
  Forward guidance and the UK housing market
  Light a cancle...
  Thanks for visiting my website
  Notes from the LDS chapel, Ilford
  Germany a good model of employment
  The paradox in inflation
  Stimulus?  Taper?  Where we headed?
  Bank of England forward guidance.
 
Have a read, and let me know what you think. 
In the meantime, thanks to all the readers who have written in their
compliments and suggestions.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 

Light a candle....

Posted on September 24, 2013 at 5:10 AM Comments comments (1)
The economic news seems pretty positive all round, for continued worldwide economic Recovery.  India of course is out of sync on the benchmark interest rate, but it is a dynamic economy where the leadership are a little bit too cautious to accelerate growth.  For the moment it seems it will just motor along steadily, and blaming the high inflation on the scarcity of onions, which they are plentifully exporting.
 
The Greek economy seems to be on the mend, with a secondary surplus expected. With a nation with a population of 20 million and a large area, perhaps they need to encourage people who enjoy farming.  The potential must be huge with good climate, abundance of water and good weather as well. 
 
The situation in Spain seems pretty positive too, with a growth of 0.2 percent expected for the second quarter.  The benefits of creating jobs and filling up the empty housing, additionally with putting more buses on the roads to service secluded areas more frequently, will surely add to the growth.  Blessed with good weather and friendly people, I believe there is huge potential for continued growth in Spain.
A Latin version of Hollywood and Bollywood must surely be a possibility, with intercontinental co-productions?
 
Germany, well the situation seems so good, with Mme Angela Merkel back in the driving seat.
 
As regards the U.S., the talk of taper seems both promising and cautionary.  As Treasury Minister Jack Lew has suggested, the Debt Ceiling issue needs addressing quite soon.  The talk to me seems like a tapered candle, or a washer to be tapered on a lathe...I suppose Mr Bernanke will suggested what will need to be done.  The debt ceiling fix of a $1.45 Trillion in August 2011 was a job well done, adding to the money supply and creating the cash flow that has translated into so many jobs, a pick up in the housing market, and continued growth in the US economy, creating heatmaps of happiness for so many more people.  The stockmarkets and the banks seem in robust health, creating a huge pool of capital that will service the needs of people as and when they need to borrow and spend.  Cash rich companies like Apple attest to that fact. 
 
What would be great would be perhaps the creation of 500,000 jobs per month on a costing of $7 billion per month.  If that much additional capital was infused into the system by way of the taper, that would be just great.  Five years after the collapse of October 2008, the economic systems seem in much better shape, with strong financial institutions and safeguards in place.  A steady worldwide Economic Recovery seems to have been achieved, through co-operation and understanding of nations and the grace of God.  In celebration and to continue with Recovery, the world counts on seeing the Republicans and the Democrats in Washington support a cordial agreement, and light a new candle to Prosperity.
 
Ladies and gentlemen, you may step up to the alter, and light the candle that will add substance to the drams of humanity.
 
Amen.
 
(written by Duru-darshan)
 

Indian Rupee fall overdone

Posted on August 22, 2013 at 8:21 AM Comments comments (6)
You know, there was a time when Twelve and a half Indian Rupees exchanged for a U.S. Dollar.
Today, the rate is 65 Rupees to the Dollar.  Hardly a month ago, it was 55 Rupees.
For a country with U.S.$277 Billion in reserves, and a debt to GDP ratio of about 27 percent, this is
clearly selling the Indian Rupee too cheap. 
What sort of policies have been in place that the currency has virtually fallen 400 percent against the greenback, in a period of less than two decades, when the growth in India has been quite healthy while the mature economies have structurally slowed down? 
What is the purpose of encouraging foreign inflows of capital which periodically take flight and cause a panic in the markets? 
Of course, with the Rupee at current levels, most overseas investors see this as a golden opportunity to invest in India.  And the Finance Minister, Mr P. Chidambaram, has confirmed that inflows have been very healthy, and as it is absorbed into the system, a healthy picture will emerge.  Growth for the 2nd half of this year is expected to be much improved, with exports increasing month on month.
Can't blame anyone for snapping up quality Indian goods at ridiculous prices, can you?
 
The Reserve Bank of India's repo rate of 7-1/2 percent is really responsible for the slight slowdown that Indian industry and consumerism have seen over the last year and a half.  When the picture is so healthy, why should the RBI offer such a high rate to attract overseas investment?  When compared to the mature economies, the differential is more than 5 percent and as much as Seven and a quarter percent.  Is anyone listening?  What is the logic of it?  When India has enough for good growth, why does she need foreign inflows which periodically make the currency bleed?
 
The best announcement is that the RBI will not take any policy measures to try and curb the current and temporary fall of the Rupee to the absurd level. 
 
On 5th September, the new Governor of the RBI will assume his office, and both Corporate India and the public wait with hope to see what path he follows to restore robust growth and much need relief for consumers in India.  More people wish to buy houses and cars, take out loans for education and travel.  India needs must add to the world economic growth story, and an orderly drop in the repo rate would prove the tonic.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Oil price is far too high, despite accomodative policies

Posted on August 8, 2013 at 3:29 AM Comments comments (6)
For a continuation of the worldwide economic Recovery, in my opinion the price of Oil is far too high  - both WTI and Brent, which hit parity recently and have been both in backwardation on the far futures contracts.
 
The holding of or reduction of benchmark rates in accommodative policies is brilliant, and the only way forward.  The Australian Reserve Bank, U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of England are setting the tone for continuation of Recovery.
 
Mr Raghuram Rajan has been appointed Governor at the Reserve Bank of India, and assumed his post there on 5th September.  In his name are coded the most fond Hindu wishes in Godhead, just as they chant Raghupati Ragav Rajaram.  Hope he will set policies to utilise the various fiscal tools he has at his disposal, and help renew expansionary growth in the Indian economy.  It is noted that he is a gregarious, media-friendly personality, so presumably the world will hear more about what he has in mind. 
 
Oil price at anything above $85 per barrel is too high, and will continue to slow down the world economies.  When people are unable to feed themselves and their children in Yemen and other places, most of the developing world I would surmise, it is time for the OPEC nations to pause and consider what would be best for everybody.  Growing unemployment in South Africa (over 25 percent) and other countries, where social security is not a state policy, does not indicate a robust world picture.  It is imperative that the Oil price be reduced, for continuation of worldwide economic Recovery, which in turn will be able to sustain infrastructure growth in the OPEC and other nations. 
 
Israel with an unemployment rate of over 25 percent could do with international goodwill for their technologically advanced products, and a peace in that region can only help bring the oil price down and help the economies in that region.  In a cooling off of tensions lies the way forward to peace and prosperity.
 
Enlightened souls who help govern the policies, the duty is yours to do the needful.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Welcome, readers, my posts this month

Posted on July 31, 2013 at 1:52 PM Comments comments (4)
Hello, dear Readers, my posts this month have been as follows.  There was a slight problem with my Vistaprint site, and I was not getting the up-to-date statistics recently, so in case there has been a problem with the communication, I thought I'd bring you up-to-date with my posts :-
 
1)  Hello, Oakland, Cairo, Goma  16/7
 
2)  In God we trust, Charity, Spiritual and Temporal Blessings  17/7
 
3)  Detroit filed for Chapter 9 Bankruptcy  19/7
 
4)  Hello Everybody...Oakland, Detroit, Miami  21/7
 
5)  Could the Himalayan tsunami have been averted?  22/7
 
6)  Potholes, potholes everywhere...hello India   25/7
 
7)  Right selection, with confidence, will restore Prosperity  26/7
 
8)  Baba Ramdev shop in Seven Kings  27/7
 
9)  'I trust according to the spirit of God that is within me'  28/7
 
As always, I look forward to receiving your comments.  Keep them coming in- at lasts count, I had received a gratifying 806 comments to 1180 posts.  Wey hey, readers, I am glad to hear from you.
 
Wish you a joyful time in your activities.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 
 

Potholes, potholes everywhere....hello India!

Posted on July 25, 2013 at 9:37 AM Comments comments (6)
It is monsoon and rains intermittently, making roadworks difficult.  Much money has been allocated to repairing the roads, which are full of potholes, in Hyderabad, Mumbai and Banglaore.  Within the last 24 hours, 4 people have been killed on the roads as a result of the potholes, sending people off their scooters and cars off balance.  Traffic grinds down, and it is sheer determination of people to go to their work, take children to school or return home that makes them carry out these bumpy, back-arching journeys.  Just to see the roads on NDTV and their representative coverage of this situation makes people cringe.
 
There is no clarity as to who is responsible for keeping the roads up to date.  The local people have given up on the politicians and councillors, whose job it is to organise the repairs and point them out to the relevant municipal authorities, but confusion over which patch it is, whose jurisdiction it is, who is responsible and so on leaves a poor impression.  Just how do the politicians and councillors and the road works departments liaise and co-ordinate is a fool's blessing. 
 
Of course there is a lot that can be done to rectify the situation, and ensure the traffic moves at a normal pace, saving people time and frustration.  This would surely add to the economic growth?  Time is money, and a satisfied people can enjoy the finer things in life than being regularly trapped on the bouncy journeys. 
 
It is time clear maps were drawn for people to know who is responsible for road maintainaince on each patch, and then for the teams responsible to get the work done of filling the potholes.  It may not be the best plan to fill them all in a short while of say 48 hours, but rather to fill in a few roads each day when the weather permits so that the job is well done and the filling solidifies and takes hold and lasts longer.  Attention to this problem of repairing the potholes will do Indian cities a lot of good, and the people proud.  Those who are in charge must ensure they don't let the people down.  Travel on Indian roads ought to be safe and comfort and free of stress as possible.  That's something to achieve.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Period of Integration and Accomodative Policies

Posted on July 5, 2013 at 4:54 AM Comments comments (32)
It was fun listening to a talk by Tony Plummer, on the theories of the legendary American investor W.D. Gann, who is fabled to have made over $50 million dollars - a huge amount in the 1950s. 
 
Gann theory, which Mr Plummer has interpreted in his new book The Law of Vibration, suggests that there are four cycles : Shock, which the world saw in 2008, followed by Absorption of Shock, which is supposed to have ended in 2012, followed by Integration, which began in 2012/13 and is likely to take us all in 2015.
 
This period of Integration is typified by what has been confirmed by the new Bank of England Guvnor Mark Carney as well as the ECB Chairman Mario Draghi, that the banks will continue with an accommodative stance with regards to stimulus, i.e. the punch bowl will not be removed any time soon.
 
It would seem that that will indeed become the theme of the coming months and years, at all levels, personal, political, economic, cultural, national and international, according to my reading of the situation.  This is based on the rational trends that are in their infancy on the world stage. 
 
Look at the example of Turkey, where an all-inclusive accommodative stance has stabilised the situation there. 
 
Look at the situation in Egypt, where the military as guardians of the peoples' freedoms and economic well-being are supporting the new Interim President, who is a Chief Justice of many years standing and will follow policies which will benefit a wider democracy.  Here again, an accommodative stance by all people, including the Muslim Brotherhood supporters of Dr Mursi, will win the day, to ensure the smooth running of this great cultural nation, so that trading and tourism continues, and continues to provide the bread and butter which all people naturally need. 
 
In this period of Integration 2012/13 to 2015, an accommodative stance by central banks and political leaders will be the rational ways to continue worldwide economic Recovery, and God-willing peace prevails everywhere, which will then lead to a growing Prosperity. 
 
Please let me have your comments as usual.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
  

The magic of human chemistry.

Posted on June 23, 2013 at 4:50 PM Comments comments (4)
There is something about the chemistry, about the language and communication of the mind and soul, which brings people together or drives them apart.  It is this chemistry between people that I would blame for.....or, rather, a change in the chemistry between people that I would blame for separation and divorce. 
 
I am surprised that Napoleon Hill was not given the Noble Prize, but then again there is no category in the Noble Prizes into which his work fits.  Perhaps, on that point, I would suggest there should be another category created by the Trustees of the Noble Foundation.  The Increasing of Human Understanding.
 
Napoleon Hill interviewed 500 of the most successful people in America in the 1920s, and from those interviews he wrote many articles, published in his Hill's Success Magazine.  But a few people made a huge impression on him, viz Andrew Carnegie, Firestone, Henry Ford, Dr.Alexander Graham Bell, and Dr. Thomas Alva Edison.  And yes, Mr Edwin Barnes, who said it could not be done, that is to say, the writing of a blueprint for success based on the interviews with successful people.
 
Napoleon Hill turned that into a questions: Who said it could not be done? and went on to publish his Think and Grow Rich, a book that sells well throughout the world, in many languages, in number just after the sales of the Bible, Koran and Bhagavad-Gita and other religious masterpieces.
 
In his research, Napoleon Hill says that the first three years of a marriage often have petty squabbles and friction, but the love that exists between the two will carry it through.  The next fifteen years are those in which the lucky couple start to look alike in their eye movements and thinking, influencing their value judgements and expressions, meaning the happy couple have achieved understanding of one another, and a state of harmony exists between them that we attribute to the magic of chemistry.
A state of harmony, an instinctive understanding, an automatic understanding of mutual goals. It is like both have the same road-map, or at least complementing road maps.
 
Those for whom a partnership does not work, it seems are rather like a horse-drawn carriage where the horses want to pull in differing directions.  Where it is not possible to bring harmony of direction, abandonment of the journey becomes the alternative.  Such is what happens in business partnerships as well, and in politics as well.
 
A question that may help bring harmony back is : What was the road map that brought the partners together in the first place?  Can it be modified and restored?  If the answer is Yes, then hope still remains for reunion and success.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 

G8 - great!

Posted on June 18, 2013 at 3:54 PM Comments comments (6)
Some good points have come out of the G8 summit held in Enniskillen, Ireland.
 
It was prefaced with the arrival of President Obama, where he started with an endearing and inspiring speech, that is sure to have sowed the seeds of peace and progress through co-operation and understanding, a theme which has built and matured in Ireland since the visit of President Clinton fifteen years ago.
 
The G8 leaders seem to have agreed on tackling the question regarding tax havens and thereby tax evasion by corporations and individuals.  The loopholes which have till now existed are going to be closed through legislation and a requirement for corporations and individuals to disclose fuller details regarding creation of profits, taxes paid, where domiciled, where taxes paid, etc.  This will mean the national treasuries benefit from tax collection.
 
Such legislation will also help the Emerging economies, such as Russia, India, South Africa, Brazil and China (otherwise the BRICS nations) who at the moment are bereft of tax to the tune of some $180 Billion which corporations operating in their jurisdictions adjust through having their identity domiciled elsewhere.  This will be a boon for all these economies.
 
President Obama mentioned the trade amounting to One Trillion Dollars annually each way between the U.S. and the European Union, and the fact that Europe invests Four Trillion Dollars  into U.S. annually, and the U.S. does likewise into the European Union.  This helps to preserve some 9 million jobs on both sides of the Atlantic.  This is a cause for mutual celebration.
 
Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke has reiterated the policy of continuing with the stimulus, but tapering it if improvement or deterioration in the economy dictates.  In any case, the policy will be to take a step away and observe the need of the economy.  This augers well for continuation.
 
The Bank of Japan seems to have tamed their stimulus, and this again augers well so that it does not aid inflation.  To the contrary, Japanese goods and investments available overseas will create a good market, and help prosperity, especially in the developing world.
 
As usual, you can send me your comments by filling in the form ----> Your comments please.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.