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Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

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Contact at Facebook: Durudarshan Dadlani

Posted on March 2, 2014 at 4:19 PM Comments comments ()
My topical comments are on Facebook.  Please connect and read on there.

Debt Ceiling, grounds for optimism

Posted on October 15, 2013 at 2:35 PM Comments comments ()
Sound bites coming out of Washington this morning suggested that progress had been made on the debt ceiling raise negotiations, but there was still some work to be done. 
 
Indeed, NDTV was stating that a deal had been agreed in principle, to the effect that there would be 'full funding' of the government till 15th January, and thereafter a debt ceiling renegotiation date of 15th February.  If that is in fact so, that would be great news for everybody, at least they won't have to worry about the cold winds of November and can have a holiday and relax over Christmas before having to face the cold corridors of Washington in the New Year.
 
People are counting on the House Fathers Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell to bring everybody to the fold and get some agreement in principle, so that it can be presented to the world latest by Thursday.
Optimistically, everybody is waiting for such news.
 
In the meantime the U.S. Budget Office is issuing advisories in the event that an agreement is not reached.  Namely that in the event of a debt ceiling limit not being raised, the government will have run out of authority to issue any more money into the system.  In the most unlikely event of that happening, the ramifications would multiply twelve times what has happened under the Sequestration.
(The sequestration cuts totalled $85 billion over twelve months from a Q.E. budget running at $85 billion per month; hence one twelfth, so the effects of a halt would be magnified twelve times.  This is just to put in context some meat for the doomsters.  I cannot see the wise elected leaders of the U.S. ever leading America down that path, which would of course spell pessimistic scenarios for the world, as all nations trade with the U.S. and lot of people are engaged in producing something for export or working in calls centres and so forth which serves the major economies.)
 
Ideally, everybody would like to believe that such an agreement will be reached and released to the world, that full funding of the government continues until January, and then once again they can face the cold winds of February to negotiate another debt ceiling raise.  In the meantime, the funding will ensure U.S. continues to trade at full strength with the world, and create more jobs at home and abroad, creating a continuation of the Recovery that has gladly blessed this great nation. 
 
Japan is most definitely looking for an endorsement of the QE policies which they have implemented with a huge success, pulling Japan out from a phase of stagnation that lasted 20 years to what are glad welcomes of a Recovery.  China likewise is re-focusing on domestic growth; how much better it will be if things continue in a positive way across the globe, so that there is work for the workshops, freight for the transport and the oceans, everyone doing something purposeful, busy, happy, earning their livelihoods, buying houses, cars, sending their children to schools and colleges and universities, a whole world procession in progress, the army of humanity. 
 
How wonderful it will be for those wise leaders in Washington to agree upon and then issue to the world the words that signal the continuation of the economic Recovery at home, and by extension to the world.  I pray for this. 
 
Looking for inspiration yesterday, some words occurred to me, which I tweeted, as follows :
  "Have faith, just believe.  Everything will be all right, by the grace of God."
 
I sincerely believe that shall be so.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Bank of England's forward guidance

Posted on August 29, 2013 at 4:52 AM Comments comments ()
The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has reassured the markets that a further stimulus would be available if market conditions dictate it.  In the meantime, he has restated what he mentioned when he took over the reigns a month and a half ago, namely :
 
 That the record low interest rate, currently 0.5 percent, would be maintained until such time as the unemployment figure falls to 7 percent. 
 
Most market forecasters believe this indicates a period of about three years, according to the BBC.
 
So industry and enterprise can assume an atmosphere of prevailing calm and steady investment and growth over the coming three years in the United Kingdom, perhaps even rescue and turnaround of sectors which may be in the doldrums at the moment.  The forward moves will probably be in construction, as demand for housing in Britain continues to grow.  Currently there are government incentives for new-built houses; new year, starting April-May 2014, there would be help available for those purchasing older houses.  The government is trying to satisfy the appetite for home ownership, at the same time welcoming qualified people from abroad who see Britain as a safe and pleasant land to live in.  More demands will arise in the health (probably private now) and schools sector, and accordingly new buildings will need to go up. 
 
So long as banks continue to lend (from the stimulus portfolio of about £375 Billions already issued) there should be little trouble in seeing growth and opportunities in the U.K. for the foreseeable future. It is for entrepreneurs and business owners to take up courage and ask for working capital, and set about their work with vim and vigour.  The time has never been better.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan
 
 
 
 

The youth unemployment and the Retirement age

Posted on May 28, 2013 at 7:24 AM Comments comments ()
It seems a little bit of tweaking and changes in policy may improve the situation in Europe dramatically, at least I believe so.
 
The high rate of unemployment amongst the under-25s and the debate about the Retirement age surely throws up possibilities of correction and growth in the right segments. 
 
People like to retire early, not work into their old age!  People like to work a slightly shorter week, so they can enjoy some leisure time enjoying the sunshine, pottering around town, meeting friends, playing cards, taking youngsters to all the exciting places, and so on.  That is the boon of the Digital age, where people shouldn't have to work long hours.  Each new generation should have more leisure time, and a better standard of living.  Why not? 
 
And the young people, why should they be unemployed?  If there is work to be done, they should do it instead of the older people.  Does it not make sense?  It would reduce unemployment amongst the young people, who are the strength of this generation.  What a relief it would bring. 
 
If more young people are facilitated into the jobs market, they will become empowered to do all the traditional jobs such as plumbing, shop-keeping, driving, cooking and catering, house-building, architecture, book-keeping, teaching, nursing, pharmacology, dentistry, librarianship, well you can add a few names as well.
 
As the young people work, the economy will boom, able to support the people who need to retire and draw a pension.  It will seem fair if people who have worked hard for so many years can retire at a reasonable age and enjoy a future of a leisurely life, whilst the young can convert all their talents and energy into wealth for their nations, by work, enterprise and innovation. 
 
Europe can endeavour to put young people into traditional occupations, as well as nurturing talents for the digital economy.  Maybe the lucky ones will help create some star performers like Facebook or Pulse or Tumblr, and those can be developed as hobbies by the rest of us I guess. 
 
Now I hope the legislators and labour department superemos can sit down and formulate some ideas that will turn all that latent energy into wealth and growth for Europe.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

An Enterprise friendly Budget

Posted on March 20, 2013 at 8:01 PM Comments comments ()
The spritely Budget announced today by Chancellor George Osborne is to be applauded as an Enterprise friendly Budget.
 
Mr Osborne alluded to the Asset Purchase Facility established by the Bank of England, and confirmed that it is to remain in place for the foreseeable future.  A Select Committee recently weighing up the long and short term rates suggested that there is scope for the 'unconventional fiscal measure' when Mark Carney takes charge as  Governor of the Bank of England.  Those who can surmise the benefits thereof will know the good it will do, especially to the Housing Market.
 
The Monetary Policy Committee will have the remit to maintain low and stable inflation.
 
The Enterprise stimulant measures include :
  Research and Development Credits being increased to 10 percent.  That's quite handsome, upto £100,000 per annum.
  Tax Free Loans from Firms to Workers up, to £10,000.
  Stamp Duty on shares traded on the A.I.M.s scrapped.  Yes, true.
  Corporation Tax to be cut by 1 pc to 20 pc, making it one of the lowest in the world, from 2015.
  Tax Free Personal Alloance up to the first £10,000 per annum - meaning 3 million people will have
    to pay no tax at all.
  20 percent of Child Care to be Tax Free on £6,000 for each child.  Many will say Hurrah!
 
This was George Osborne's spritely message to the nation today, that Britain is moving to lower and competitive tax rates, changing the poliicies which were set in the 1920s to be in tune with the world of the internet economy.  (People in the developing world following 'Cambridge' policies with blinkers had best wake up).
 
There will be an Enterprise Allowance for every business from 2014 of £2,000 in the way of not paying National Insurance contributions to that amount for employee(s).  Useful saving for small enterprises, even engaging trainees on low pay.  A true way to kick start the enterprise culture.
 
Provided the banks faithfully lend to all qualifying customers without discrimination for the legitimate purpose of starting businesses and buying houses and vehicles, then this Budget will have paved the way to continued economic Recovery for Britain.  I applaud Mr Osborne's faith in things not yet seen, things that are yet to be.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 

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