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Honest Information, Profitable Trading

Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

My Blog

Blog

www.durudarshan.co.uk/blog

Posted on November 9, 2013 at 6:12 AM Comments comments ()
My thanks to the staff at these Search Engines for listing and indexing my website, and to Vistaprint for so beautifully hosting my website over last 28 months.  It has built from strength to strength, drawing many visitors each day. Thanks to all :
                        Stumbleupon
                        Google (the multi-trillion dollar brain)
                        Twitter  (tweet tweet to you)
                        LinkedIn (professional and so well defined)
                        j.mp
                        Yahoo (book readers love you)
                        Bing (looks like people like spy thrillers)
                        and, just for good measure, a few porno sites, harmless fun is okay I'd say.
 
My blogs being read overnight are as follows :
  -  The ECB's 25 basispoint cut
  -  Stephanie Ruhle, CNBC interviewer 
         (She's actually an anchor for Bloomberg, working in New York)
  -  This is time for buyers to support Bangladesh factories
          (American companies have done so, may blessings be unto them)
  -  Thomas Sugrue's review of The Last Great Prophet
  -  The Bank of America share price.
 
----------------------------------------------LIZZIE--------------------------------------------------------------
 
Yesterday I heard the news that China has experienced good growth and far from a hard-landing which people feared it is experiencing very sound growth, with PMI figures up and increasing. 
 
One commentator has stated that China has several trillion dollars of reserves for investment, so I imagine the worldwide boom can continue.  Today I heard that 80 percent of visas being taken for visits to Portugal are for Chinese property investors.  This way, all economies with an open-door policy to encouraging property ownership and immigration would benefit from the Chinese wherewithal to sustain growth and Recovery. 
 
If the Chinese sources are suggesting U.S. is looking for $561 Billion for next six months, it augers well for the U.S. that the jobs numbers were pretty good and growth potential is inherent in America, and it would be very probable that China would support such borrowings and support, as they have done in the recent past. 
 
The luxury sector may start to rebound in China, who continue to buy Rolls Royce cars and jets as never before, and with the refocus on domestic consumption and increasing exports from China, it is apparent that the Honourable Xi Jinping is inspiring policies that will help the Chinese people achieve higher standards of living. 
 
For stability and optimism into the near future, what more could the world wish for?
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Positive actions would make everything good

Posted on October 29, 2013 at 7:08 AM Comments comments ()
Following in the math of the sequestration cuts, followed by uncertainity about the U.S. Debt Ceiling raise, and the unwanted shutdown and furloughs, it seems apparent that confidence has taken a bit of a knock, especially with regards to the United States economy, but obviously timely positive action would restore that. 
 
The news that Ms Janet Yellen was nominated by Mr Obama to the chair of the Federal Reserve was actually happy news to the markets, welcoming this dove of the financial system, assured that the punchbowl would be replenished and the taper would be quite some time away now. 
 
Once that nomination is confirmed by one and all, that would send the right signal and boost the confidence that the economy needs right now, in view of the temporary fix of the nation's capacity to continue funding itself until only 15th January 2014. 
 
Around that time Chairman Ben Bernanke steps down, and willing bi-partisan co-operation to extend
the reserve balance capacity and support Ms Yellen in her post will ensure great and much needed stability to the world financial system, and not only to that of the United States.
 
The housing numbers yesterday were obviously disappointing, indicating a shake in the confidence of house buyers.  That is but natural, in view of the uncertainity created by the last-moment and then only such a short temporary fix of the situation. 
 
When I was in California and Las Vegas last year, October and November, I met lots of people and heard their stories about how hopeful they are, and how they are happy working hard, to buy their first house and know things are okay with their economy.  These were people who are taxi-drivers, concierges, receptionists, cleaners, waiters, waiteresses, a scientist working for an oil major, people who had made America their home, and who were sharing in the American dream.
 
It can obviously help the well-being of the nation if normal lending practices continue, where the individual man or woman and families are encouraged to buy their own houses, with the confidence in the system that things will continue positively, so they can believe in the virtue of borrowing and investing for the future. 
 
The oil price on both sides of the Atlantic is so high, and hopefully needs to be around the $85 mark to encourage normal growth in the economies outside the G20 nations.  Their depleted reserves and devalued currencies vis a vis the major currencies don't give them a chance.  A dose of kindness now would greatly assist growth throughout the world, which would bring great mutual benefits to all nations.  When we eat the food that we can so easily buy which has been exported from some country, we must spare a thought for the people there, who may not be able to afford such items in their own countries.  When I wear my beautifully stitched shirt, my heart sends blessings to the factory workers in Bangladesh.  It was heartening news to hear of American companies giving them continued support and helping them make the textile industry safe for workers. 
 
With such friendship and trade between nations, each cog will help turn the small wheel which in turn will drive the greater wheel, and the path to continued economic Recovery, and yes, ultimately a growing Prosperity for all, shall continue.  For that I pray.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 
 

Debt Ceiling, grounds for optimism

Posted on October 15, 2013 at 2:35 PM Comments comments ()
Sound bites coming out of Washington this morning suggested that progress had been made on the debt ceiling raise negotiations, but there was still some work to be done. 
 
Indeed, NDTV was stating that a deal had been agreed in principle, to the effect that there would be 'full funding' of the government till 15th January, and thereafter a debt ceiling renegotiation date of 15th February.  If that is in fact so, that would be great news for everybody, at least they won't have to worry about the cold winds of November and can have a holiday and relax over Christmas before having to face the cold corridors of Washington in the New Year.
 
People are counting on the House Fathers Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell to bring everybody to the fold and get some agreement in principle, so that it can be presented to the world latest by Thursday.
Optimistically, everybody is waiting for such news.
 
In the meantime the U.S. Budget Office is issuing advisories in the event that an agreement is not reached.  Namely that in the event of a debt ceiling limit not being raised, the government will have run out of authority to issue any more money into the system.  In the most unlikely event of that happening, the ramifications would multiply twelve times what has happened under the Sequestration.
(The sequestration cuts totalled $85 billion over twelve months from a Q.E. budget running at $85 billion per month; hence one twelfth, so the effects of a halt would be magnified twelve times.  This is just to put in context some meat for the doomsters.  I cannot see the wise elected leaders of the U.S. ever leading America down that path, which would of course spell pessimistic scenarios for the world, as all nations trade with the U.S. and lot of people are engaged in producing something for export or working in calls centres and so forth which serves the major economies.)
 
Ideally, everybody would like to believe that such an agreement will be reached and released to the world, that full funding of the government continues until January, and then once again they can face the cold winds of February to negotiate another debt ceiling raise.  In the meantime, the funding will ensure U.S. continues to trade at full strength with the world, and create more jobs at home and abroad, creating a continuation of the Recovery that has gladly blessed this great nation. 
 
Japan is most definitely looking for an endorsement of the QE policies which they have implemented with a huge success, pulling Japan out from a phase of stagnation that lasted 20 years to what are glad welcomes of a Recovery.  China likewise is re-focusing on domestic growth; how much better it will be if things continue in a positive way across the globe, so that there is work for the workshops, freight for the transport and the oceans, everyone doing something purposeful, busy, happy, earning their livelihoods, buying houses, cars, sending their children to schools and colleges and universities, a whole world procession in progress, the army of humanity. 
 
How wonderful it will be for those wise leaders in Washington to agree upon and then issue to the world the words that signal the continuation of the economic Recovery at home, and by extension to the world.  I pray for this. 
 
Looking for inspiration yesterday, some words occurred to me, which I tweeted, as follows :
  "Have faith, just believe.  Everything will be all right, by the grace of God."
 
I sincerely believe that shall be so.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

How does money get to the real economy?

Posted on May 10, 2013 at 4:43 AM Comments comments ()
There seems a mood of optimism, which is founded in reality, that the world economy will grow and continue growing and people will enjoy semblance of Prosperity, which is not very far.
 
Most of the Central Banks have been doing their bit in the quest for convergence of benchmark interest rates, evidenced by Australia and South Korea recently, something that the IMF was calling out for about two years ago.
 
Japan seems to have turned  the corner from a stagnant to a dynamic economy, with its GNP likely to rise in the near future, with added investments in overseas markets.  This should create spending power in those places for purchase of much-liked Japanese technology.  This is a great positive sign, and the quantitative easing in Japan is feeding into the world economy, adding to consumption and growth worldwide.  For nations like Portugal and Spain, Japan could bankroll their Recovery, that is one scenario.
 
The Fed Bank regional Presidents asking rhetorical questions as to how money feeds into the real economy, they know that the Main Road banks lending to small business owners and gangs of builders to buy and do up properties and such like will be the way forward, not to mention loans to young entrepreneurs who may not have physical collateral but have intangible assets and intellectual property to their names - such will be the Bill Gates and Steve Jobs of this new generation, and backing them will pay rich dividends in the near future as they explore new frontiers of the Digital Economy.  I believe a whole new world is around the corner, with more leisure time for each and every one, and utilisation of the Internet in all its glory for making life easier and more enjoyable, for more and more people across the globe.  You could even say, The good times have just started again.
 
The stockmarkets are likely to pause for breath now, but they seem heading up and that is a sign of faith of the investing public and the money managers.  It is accumulation of wealth, which augers well.
 
So, the bankers know how the money gets to the real people, and by lending sympathetically and not only judiciously, they will be doing their bit.  All prosper together.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
   

This is time for buyers to support Bangladesh factories

Posted on May 4, 2013 at 11:20 AM Comments comments ()
The tragic collapse of the eight storey commercial building in Dhaka last week which left over 500 dead is a point to reflect on. 
 
I hear that Disney were considering stopping sourcing their goods from Bangladesh because of poor working conditions for workers which have resulted in accidents prior to last week. 
 
If a backpack made in Bangladesh retails in the States for $10, and the alternative is one at $40, there is sufficient margin perhaps to offer more to the Bangladeshi factories...this would take off some pressure and definitely enable them improve both workers' wages as well as working safety. 
 
Bangladesh relies on a huge number in its GDP on garment manufacturing, and prides itself as the cheapest on price.  It would be amiss for buyers to pull out, thereby reducing jobs and livelihood of people.  To the contrary, it may be noble to offer continued support in purchasing goods made in Bangladesh, and offering them a better price for their work.  I believe it would effectively take pressure off and help them improve working conditions and safety.  Next time customers in England or U.S. pay a couple of quid more on an item, they will know the money is actually reaching people to sustain their livelihoods and improve their safety at work.  In this regard the Bangladeshi government could possibly expand the number of factory inspectors, and implement measures to improve peoples' safety.
 
In the wake of the tragedy, it is time for consumers in the West to offer ongoing support for manufacturers in Bangladesh. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 

Dhaka factory collapse - a tragedy.

Posted on April 24, 2013 at 3:25 PM Comments comments ()
It is saddening to see loss of so many lives in the 8-storey building collapse in Dhaka.  The building apparently housed several factories and a bank, and was getting full of workers near 9 am when the steel and concrete structure collapsed, killing nearly a hundred with lots more injured from the nearly 2,000 people who worked within the building.
 
It is saddening to note that a huge crack had been noticed yesterday, and people were specifically warned not to use the building, but somehow the need to earn the daily bread and the factory owners' rationale to recover their investment ignored such good counsel.  Today, the spot is like the scene of an earthquake, with people injured and dead and wailing and weeping. 
 
There is no machinery for heavy lifting to lift the rubble.
 
Bangladesh is a developing nation, full of enterprising and hard-working people.  A sympathetic gesture for the Western nations who import the manufactured goods from Bangladesh would be to offer investment for buildings provided they are built to high specifications, thereby ensuring peoples' safety and well-being. 
 
May God's blessings be upon the relatives and friends of the people who have died in this tragedy.
 
Khuda-hafiz.
 
 
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 

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