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|Posted on October 19, 2013 at 12:21 PM||comments ()|
When I get so many readers from Kansas City to my blog, I think Narayani Namastute! Narayani Namastute! Yes, on the auspicious day of Full Moon, as it was yesterday, and with the conjunction of the debt ceiling raise decision in the U.S., I was wondering what the Kansas City Fed Chairman Narayanan Kocharlakota was thinking. I haven't read anything in the press, but he is normally an advocate of quantitative easing with deliberate measure. In this regard, again, it is early days to see a ballpark figure of the debt ceiling raise, and for the 4 months of January 15th, Congress has announced that the U.S. government will be fully funded. Their Comptroller is likely to know what that means, and how much money will continue to flow into the system until then.
In the meantime, it must be a great relief that the shutdown has been lifted. Never again, I can hear everyone saying. People have lost income and business, tourists have suffered not being able to visit monuments and museums they may have especially travelled over the States to visit. The short but very long 14 days have cost the U.S. dear, to the tune of some $24 Billion in lost revenue and productivity. The lesson is clear, such a shutdown over an extended period would cause the economy to slow down, and the economy to lose something on the GDP measure. It is like an economy in good shape being told to trim down. Never again, I hope.
As to the ballpark figure, my suggestion is $1.32 Trillion over 20 months, which works out at $66 Billion per month. After payment of some $60 Billion per month for the social security net, that leaves $6 Billion per month for enterprise and job creation. Jobs ranging in pay from $20 or $30,000 per annum to $250,000 per annum could be created, perhaps 300,000 or 400,000 per month. And he presto! within six months the U.S. would have whizzed on from Recovery to Prosperity.
But that's just a ballpark figure I am suggesting. At current Stimulus of $85 Billion per month, maybe it could be different. In view of the regime of Abenomics in Japan and their Stimulus of $85 Billion per month, the per capita differential is in Japan's favour. It is a theme to be explored over the coming days.
I am glad to note the global economic order has been stabilised after the agreement in the U.S. on the debt ceiling raise. As they all enjoy four months of relative calm and stability until 15th January and then to 7th February, I trust they will have this in mind and not give everyone, including themselves, a tough time.
Certainly, the costings and implementation of Obamacare is something they can review and see how technically it would be best implemented. The beginnings of the British NHS took about 40 years in gestation, before it received the blessing as a Royal Charter in 1947 under the kind King George. Obamacare is by comparison in its infancy, and needs to be tweaked and explored before this very sound principle can bring benefits to the citizens and the nation.
|Posted on July 21, 2013 at 12:36 PM||comments ()|
The Chapter 9 Bankruptcy of Detroit last Friday is a stark reminder of what happens to an economy when trust breaks down between communities and disrupts the social fabric, leading to decline and decay and a sad breakdown of an economy.
I understand from cursory reading of books on Detroit that the 1967 riots sparked off a distrust between the communities, and may have been the turning point for the breakdown of the economy which has now resulted to this sad, sad decline.
No two children of the same family will be totally understanding or obedient to their parent(s), but if family members work in harmony and common objectives, they tend to be more successful. That rule of harmony holds true for organisations as well as for communities, there is no reason why it should not hold true for cities or even nations, hence last week I referred to Cario and Oakland but of course I should also have mentioned Miami.
Just imagine Detroit in the 1950s, which now appears to have been its heyday, full of harmony and enterprise, inspiring dreams, the American dream, contributing to its status as a city of great reputation worldwide, with its ballrooms, museums, theatres, skyscrapers....The industry and enterprise was there to give a livelihood to the 465,000 residents there, who soon grew to over a million and to nearly two million towards the peak. The infrastructure was added to as it served the citizens and visitors, and the town grew to a city.
The decline has seen people leave, mainly white people leaving the city to suburbs, leaving a ghetto at its core, the deserted buildings falling apart, now ready for demolition or refurbishment.
The population has fallen, leaving the municipality with an income of about $1 billion a year, when it probably needs at least a billion-and-a-half just to service the interest on the bonds.
A solution may be repopulation, with some company and a group of New Economy companies able to generate a lot of jobs and sustain the livelihoods of the citizens. Obviously there is a lot of talent and raw energy, that can be purposefully employed and will create wealth and sustain the people and regenerate the city. All that is now needed is for a few men and women of vision to locate their wealth generating companies there, and give a boost to the regeneration of the housing and public buildings.
The talent is there, you cannot stand and see a great city die. Hopefully, the government can make a special provision for a funding programme to regenerate this great iconic city with its beautiful landmarks.
As harmony exists between people, so will Recovery and Prosperity bloom in their midst. Today, I pray for restoration of faith in Detroit.
|Posted on June 23, 2013 at 4:50 PM||comments ()|
There is something about the chemistry, about the language and communication of the mind and soul, which brings people together or drives them apart. It is this chemistry between people that I would blame for.....or, rather, a change in the chemistry between people that I would blame for separation and divorce.
I am surprised that Napoleon Hill was not given the Noble Prize, but then again there is no category in the Noble Prizes into which his work fits. Perhaps, on that point, I would suggest there should be another category created by the Trustees of the Noble Foundation. The Increasing of Human Understanding.
Napoleon Hill interviewed 500 of the most successful people in America in the 1920s, and from those interviews he wrote many articles, published in his Hill's Success Magazine. But a few people made a huge impression on him, viz Andrew Carnegie, Firestone, Henry Ford, Dr.Alexander Graham Bell, and Dr. Thomas Alva Edison. And yes, Mr Edwin Barnes, who said it could not be done, that is to say, the writing of a blueprint for success based on the interviews with successful people.
Napoleon Hill turned that into a questions: Who said it could not be done? and went on to publish his Think and Grow Rich, a book that sells well throughout the world, in many languages, in number just after the sales of the Bible, Koran and Bhagavad-Gita and other religious masterpieces.
In his research, Napoleon Hill says that the first three years of a marriage often have petty squabbles and friction, but the love that exists between the two will carry it through. The next fifteen years are those in which the lucky couple start to look alike in their eye movements and thinking, influencing their value judgements and expressions, meaning the happy couple have achieved understanding of one another, and a state of harmony exists between them that we attribute to the magic of chemistry.
A state of harmony, an instinctive understanding, an automatic understanding of mutual goals. It is like both have the same road-map, or at least complementing road maps.
Those for whom a partnership does not work, it seems are rather like a horse-drawn carriage where the horses want to pull in differing directions. Where it is not possible to bring harmony of direction, abandonment of the journey becomes the alternative. Such is what happens in business partnerships as well, and in politics as well.
A question that may help bring harmony back is : What was the road map that brought the partners together in the first place? Can it be modified and restored? If the answer is Yes, then hope still remains for reunion and success.
|Posted on June 1, 2013 at 9:21 AM||comments ()|
Thanks for your visits to my website and blog. The stats are quite impressive to me anyway, with an average of 12,000 visitors a month over the last six months, with a total of 196,493 visitors so far since I started to blog in June 2011. So the latest numbers indicate a gratifying growing number of readers, thanks to you all. I hope you continue to find my blog informative on debates of contemporary concern In the world of finance, economics, philanthropy and other issues of human concern.
Anyway, my posts over the last 30 days were as follows, and you may wish to look them up and have a read :-
Heavenly Father likes us to be joyful
Ramdev Ayurvedic - Goodmayes Business Centre
Winds, be thee still
Hello, Dorking and Oakland
What should we have instead of austerity
Welcome Amsterdam, Walnut, Atlanta
The youth employment and the Retirement age.
What's happening with the economy?
Hello, Amsterdam. Masseur voor Frozen shoulder.
That's it for the moment. Wish you all an enjoyable weekend.
|Posted on May 23, 2013 at 5:33 AM||comments ()|
The I.M.F. has a good suggestion for Britain : to inject some capital into infrastructure projects. That would of course create or maintain lots of jobs, as well as upgrading the infrastructure.
There may be a good argument to bring forward the house-building at the racecourses, refurbishing houses in the deserted towns in the regions, and perhaps assisting people to move away from the main areas and into these new areas, which could create a lot of economic activity as well as giving people better housing, jobs (in a new town you would need doctors, nurses, cinema ushers, porters, teachers, traffic wardens, salespeople, double-glazing companies, solar panel engineers, builders, drivers, electricians).
The shale cracking or fracking industry could be a viable alternative, once safety concerns have been ascertained, creating jobs, lowering energy bills, making Britain an affordable place to live in, and attracting more people to consider making Britain their home if they are suitably qualified to add to the economic life here.
The lending requirements in the housing sector are of the order of a £100 billion, and yet Bank of England Guvnor Sir Merwyn King is only backed by 2 of the 9 MPC members for an additional stimulus of £25 billion. The other seven would probably like to keep Austerity measures, the snake that is squeezing life out of the European economies. As the IMF has suggested, growth would be the alternative, and a stimulus is the required cash flow mechanism that must be utilized. The U.S. quantitative easing policy has shown that it is a practical way to come out of recession, and both the U.S. and Britain are blessed in this regard in that they can issue their own legal tender. The MPC board members can hopefully see the sense of it, and give Sir Merwyn the vote to issue a further stimulus before he retires. It will be a blessing to the nation, and in time for the royal birth in June.
What should we have instead of Austerity? Well, of course, a jamboree and a celebration would be good, which will help people satisfy their reasonable demands of a growing prosperity. The quicker it is put in place, the earlier the cycle of wealth creation can continue, which in turn will bring money to address the deficit, and the only really practical way of growth. Can you imagine a shop-keeper without cash flow? Nor should the MPC board members see Britain in such a light.
|Posted on May 16, 2013 at 7:35 AM||comments ()|
I am very glad that I have so many readers who regularly visit my website and check out my blogs.
For your continued reading pleasure, I wrote the following blogs recently, in the last 30 days :-
Interest only mortgages, what's the fuss?
RBI repo rate cut of 0.25 percent (25 basis points)
This is time for buyers to support Bangladesh factories
Time for the Presidential Prerogative, I believe
Ramdev shop Ilford address
The Queen's Speech 8th May
How does money get to the real economy?
Wear a silly hat and sing a song
From 2008 to Recovery
When the monetary expansion stops, does the party end?
What was Cinderella told? Is the beautiful carriage going to turn back to a pumpkin?
Is the slipper going to lead her Prince to her?
I hope my blog posts will provide you some amusement.
|Posted on May 5, 2013 at 4:20 PM||comments ()|
A time will come very soon when the U.S. debt clock hits 16.15 Trillion. That is a self-reminder to the American nation to review its finances, and see what savings and improvements could be made, to eventually balance the National Ledger one day. As is true of all sovereign nations, the national ledgers are very seldom balanced, thank God, for development, expansion, review and progress are activities that are forward looking.
Nations which are having to balance their books and keep expenditure strictly under control due to lack of overseas support typically are tiny nations, with limited natural resources, who have exhausted their credits with other nations and thus become at the mercy of God and the goodwill of friendly nations.
With the U.S., it has plenty of natural resources, a nation that is influential in its friendship across the globe, and in spite of being one of the major developed nations still has plenty of scope for further development. To wit, they are still building extensions to the railways in Pasadena, in California, and with the product developments there, the U.S. in my opinion is fully several years ahead of most other economies.
Many fine houses were lying empty across the U.S. in the midst of a housing meltdown; that has now gradually and surely started to heal. Every month the U.S. is creating more jobs, and the unemployment rate has started to go down. The 165,000 new jobs created in April were something that cheered the markets, and took the DOW to over the golden 15,000 bar which I believed it would vault over (I wrote as much in early 2012).
The only thing that remains is for the U.S. Recovery to continue is the Debt Ceiling II, the date for this seems to be around May the 18th.
It is my assumption that the best course of action would be for the President to exercise his Prerogative in this regard, and sign in, with the full bi-partisan co-operation of Congress, a further figure of 1T. This may even be modified to say 250B over 6 months from 18th May in view of the improving economy and creation of jobs on a wholesome budget. That would ensure continuation of Recovery and happiness and welfare of people, together with creation of wealth through exchange of production and consuming thereof, and money swirling in the system and returning to banks and eventually to the Fed
(through financing and creating wealth).
In about two years, when Prosperity appears in U.S. and the other nations which follow and further Peace, the name of the undersigned may be forgotten, but who cares?
God is our Heavenly Father, and as He has so inspired capable men and women to administer the affairs of nations, He has so inspired scribes to give a helping hand. Today, it is my belief that everything will be fine by the grace of God, and the suggested course of action will lead to a greater Prosperity for all.
I am always glad to hear from my Readers their comments and opinions, and any hints they wish to share with me.
|Posted on May 2, 2013 at 6:40 PM||comments ()|
I don't see what the real fuss is about regarding the Interest-only mortgages.
At one time, people used to buy interest-only mortgages side by side with an Endowment policy, that would hopefully build up and mature into the principal sum owed on the mortgage.
Then, people did a smartness. They cancelled the endowment policies. That meant their monthly outgoing was lower than on a Repayment mortgage, and they had relative security of a roof over their head which was cheaper than renting. And that is the light an Interest-only mortgage should be looked at.
Often, it is cheaper than renting, and if there is a surplus over the price paid to buying price of the house, that's the icing on the cake. If not, at least it is a secure roof for as long as you continue to work hard and pay for it, meaning it is cheaper than renting and you are your own landlord.
So if it is cheaper than renting and you have pride of ownership, then at the end of the mortgage term if the house doesn't belong to you should not be such an awkward question. That's the reality of it.
However, if property prices improve (and they probably will in England over the next four year I believe, going by previous house-price cycles) then there may to nothing to worry about.
The U.K. economy will recover and strengthen in the coming months and years, as growth continues in the U.S. and China, not to mention huge growth in Africa (where they regularly discover some hidden Oil resources, potential for building towns and railways, etc, etc) and an improved outlook for India, in my opinion, where the current UPA Congress government has published figures which show a steady improvement in standards of living, declining mortality rates, better nourishment for people, it is such a promising picture....If the Oil price is cheaper, all economies will grow and prosper, including the oil exporters, who will have sufficient income to sustain their infrastructure growth and prosperity of their people.
Look forward to the future with optimism; the ECB rate cut today to half percent should give added impetus to growth in the Euroland, to complete the global picture.