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Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

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What are the chances of the worldwide economic Recovery continuing this year?

Posted on January 2, 2016 at 11:19 AM Comments comments (16)
The chances are pretty decent of the worldwide economic Recovery continuing this year, with the promising possibility of enhancement.

Japan seems to have decided to continue its Stimulus, running at some $85 billion a month.  This is gigantic for the size of their population, and guarantees the highest standards of living in the world to all Japanese citizens, plus a growing influence around the world, where their capital is likely to foster growth and development.  For example, they have offered $35 billion to India for joint venture in developments of infrastructure, and this will certainly add to Japanese GNP.

India has done joint venture and co-operation treaties with Germany and France, to help develop some of the 100 new cities that Pradhanmantri Shree Narendra Modi announced at the beginning of 2015.  Since then, he has visited China and Russia, and is signing up co-operation and trade agreements with every likely nation, including many in Africa.  As a lot of Indians lived in Africa and grew up there, it seems India is taking an altruistic stance, wishing to repay with gratitude to their African brothers and sisters.  This is a laudable gesture, and will enable the inherent and huge potential growth that is in places such as Lagos and Zimbabwe. 

China too is extending its sphere of influence, Hon Xi Jinping visited so many nations and signing up trade and co-operation treaties.  I can imagine joy for all these nations, where they will have expertise been made available to them, together with the machinery and transportation to fully benefit from their resources as well as create infrastructure developments which they so badly need.  How can people not imagine dams, electricity, drinking water available on the doorstep, schools, dispensaries, hospitals, hotels, housing, tourists.....thriving economies....where God has blessed them with the rich fertile lands, mineral wealth, green vegetation, fragrant flowers, livestock to provide them plenty of milk.  Africa is most likely to come up with the most number of billionaires soon....or if not, at least top social entrepreneurs who will instead contribute to their lands through holding together and creating business enterprises which serve the communities.  If not dollar billionaires, these will be the enlightened spiritual billionaires who will do great good for their communities....at once, their people will have increasing standards of living.  If the local African banks can back these entrepreneurs, they can create the development and wealth and growth that is the potential.  I pray all these people receive the rich blessings from God.

The United States has steadily grown from the dark days of the 2008 meltdown to today, where the economy seems to have been totally restored, and is growing, with confidence, more jobs, more enterprise, more homeowners, more cars......Now the Fed will just need to fix the Debt Ceiling (in March, it seems).  If they just expand the balance sheet to January 2017, the Obama administration will be home and dry, and all the senators and representatives can continue to collect their pay checks. 
The alternative policies of the Tea Party crowd or Republicans like Donald Trump would see Obamacare repealed, and poor students being sent home due to lack of a free lunch at school.  Those dark days caused due to sequestration are something that is best forgotten. 

I pray Hillary Clinton shall become elected as the President at November 2016.  Simply, it seems her destiny.  It would resonate with the times and the perceptions of people today, everybody seeking self-expression in a democracy.  Her election will enshrine the highest achievement in gender equality.  That is a truth the people will not wish to hide, nor deny themselves. The time has come for this Democrat to rise as the dove, and sit in the highest office in the land.

She was very successful as a peacemaker in the Middle East when she was the Secretary of State.  She has a natural gift for making peace agreements, and people trust her.  She is a natural ambassador for peace.  The world atmosphere will change when she becomes President, the whole tone of political relations will change, I believe, for the better.  It is up to the people, to honour her, and elect her to the White House. 

The One Trillion Eighty Billion Stimulus that the European Central Bank has rolled out has the promise of being extended beyond September 2016, as announced by their President Mario Draghi recently.  That will offer ample scope for upgrade and innovation by the companies in the Euro Area (and by extension Europe) to meet the challenges of these times.  On that note, the one thing the world is waiting for is the Juncker Plan.  With reforms under way, Greece must surely be ready for it.

The low Oil price has depleted the reserves of the oil exporting nations, and their budget deficits have been bigger than envisaged.  That suggests they will review their stance on cutting productions, and introduce some cuts before long; their stance has hurt their purses deeply, so some change may be expected.  Russia too could follow suit, unless they are happy to foster a recession at home.  Common sense would suggest oil price could begin to rise.....but when is only known to the bigwigs in OPEC and Russia.  It is past the post-panic stage; it seems it is a time when they must be regretting not cutting back production earlier.  And there would be no loss of face.  Economic reality seems pretty harsh.

May I wish you good health and joy for the New Year.

Kind regards,
Durudarshan H. Dadlani

(c) Copyright, but may be freely shared.

2015 may be a very good year, but caution ahead

Posted on February 6, 2015 at 7:09 AM Comments comments (12)
Two Thousand and Fifteen may become a very good year, for most nations.

In China, where they recently cut rates and introduced a Trillion Dollar stimulus, the dynamics of internal growth and development as well as for the export markets suggests robust growth.  The Honourable Xi Jinping is quoted as saying that China will achieve a new standard in progress.  His words are welcome, and should give heart to anyone who may be fearing a slowdown in China.  The actual production and shipments overseas ( I hear huge ship loads arriving in Britain, and for the first time in many years hear the trains ferry the goods across in the middle of the night in a huge procession) testify to that.

In the U.S., the start of Prosperity which I had foreseen for November 2014 seems to have materialised, and heatmaps of happiness continue to grow for the people there, with increasing numbers of auto purchases, mortgages taken out on single family units, more people in work both seasonal and permanent, lower Oil prices (although that is a mixed blessing), and good weather, apart from the recent snow.

I see the DOW going upto 18,500* by June this year, although the prospects for 2016 may be mild, with perhaps the saving grace of Hillary Clinton becoming elected as the President.  Sentator Jeb Bush is a strong candidate, but I detect the dynamics at play will ensure the Democrats will again have tenure of the highest position in the land. 

*I am just expressing my opinion, based on the logics of what I perceive.  People should speculate at their own risk.

The Oil producing nations will have to work in co-operation and ensure a stable oil price, otherwise their dollar-denominated revenues will not meet the cost of their imports, and may lead to ques outside empty supermarkets, waiting to buy stocks (g00ds) which are being rationed, as in Venezuela. 
It makes me cringe in shock to see the situation in Ukraine, where the rebels loyal to the Soviet leadership are wrecking havoc and creating ghost towns, where life seems at 1950s levels.  Mr Putin can be generous and call these people off.  He must extricate himself from this very messy situation.  It is doing no one any good.  Once peace is restored in this region, hopefully the Rouble will recover, and help people in Russia share the common prosperity that is developing worldwide.  Oil seems to be bouncing around levels which may be optimum, and which may prove good for everybody, including the newly formed shale and fracking operators.  Mr Putin has to apply the generosity principle, and help the kindred folks in Ukraine.  That conflict is just so unnecessary, it is just like bullying people who at one time Mr Putin was willing to big a brotherly hug.  I just don't believe it.

Under Pradhanmantri Shree Modiji, India is on track for the fastest growth since Independence, although the recent industrial productions figures at 2.6 percent seem so faint.  Provided the RBI decide to enjoin the procession of Recovery and lower the benchmark repo rate, things should improve.  There is a great natural appetite for investment into India, with the right atmosphere.  Creating a major air hub to compete with what exists in the Arab Emirates may be a good raising of the bar, but let us all wait and see what will actually materialise.  But in the meantime, the commencement of building a 100 new cities seems a great vision, and Modiji has my congratulations.  I hope his BJP policymakers and bureaucrats will ensure implementation and fulfilment of such measures.

The caution that I mentioned....while times are good, save a little for the future, and build some reserves for the second half of 2016, when it will all come in handy.


May the Lord's blessings be upon all.


Kind regards,

Durudarshan H. Dadlani


(c) Copyright. 



 





Magnificent, the ECB Stimulus

Posted on January 25, 2015 at 5:08 PM Comments comments (8)
The Trillion Euro stimulus announced this afternoon by ECB President Mario Draghi is nothing less than magnificent in my view, and will help create jobs and industry for millions, and turn into wealth.  This stimulus augurs well for the European stockmarkets and for the Euro itself, which it now underpins with a very positive aspect.  It seems to have been announced at the right time, and although the immediate market reaction may not have been wildly enthusiastic, it is a complex stimulus, needing people to understand and digest its implications.

In plain terms, it is 60 billion Euros per month over 18 months, starting from March to September 2016, meaning a total of 1,080,000,000,000* Euros.  This was announced by Mr Draghi at the press conference in Frankfurt this afternoon.

It will serve the 19 nations that make up the Euro Area, or Eurozone, which now includes as from 1st January 2015 Lithuania.   However, it will not be available at the moment to Greece, which benefits from arrangements already in place from the IMF, which gave them two bailouts and numerous haircuts.  Perhaps there could be cross border mergers of some organisations which would benefit all?

There seems enough appetite for additional funds, especially by companies who have not been able to find funding from the banks so far.  This is a ready segment that will be glad to be served by this Stimulus.  As in England and Britain, where Mr Cameron has been visiting various companies, who have received funding now, something similar needs to be implemented in the Eurozone.  Money invested in companies which need capital for upgrades of machinery, or cash flow to keep the factories operating while their customers arrange to pay them, will maintain employment and sustain livelihoods and, hopefully, even create wealth in the long term.  That 'old school' way of trading had died recently in the credit crunch, and could well do with revival.  It may be the clue to bring Recovery back on stream.


This Trillion Euro Stimulus was long awaited, and probably is just in time, now joining the money flow in the U.S., Japan and China, to maintain the worldwide economic Recovery, which shall flourish to Prosperity for all nations.  The next stage surely must be for the BRICS nations to reduce their benchmark interest rates and for the Emerging Markets to do something similar, in due course to be followed by Africa perhaps?  Or even simultaneously, and soon?  Why not?  The national books can become squared internationally, as each nation develops its resources, trades with the other nations, and brings development and growth at home.  Would that not be the most marvellous thing to happen?


I wish you peace and prosperity, to every nation, man, woman and child.


Kind regards,

Duru-darshan


(c)  Copyright.

P.S. Earlier I left out three 0's.  Aw aw aw!


Where's the Oil price headed?

Posted on January 21, 2015 at 12:19 PM Comments comments (6)
The Oil price started to slide from the mid $80s down to the recent $45 after Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia would not cut the 300,000 barrels per day which the market expected.  It was the same day as the OPEC meeting in Vienna.  The Arabs must have felt compelled to go with this strategy, Sheikh Ali Al-Naimi declaring that Saudi would not cut production either.  The pronouncements of that day have left a big scar on the landscape, with the Russian economy nearly entering a period of recession.  The OPEC nations have tried to bravely weather the storm, relying on the abundant surpluses they had built up when the price was high. 

But pressures from the populations at home together with anger at the absurdity of pricing the valued commodity so cheaply, has seen the Venezuelan President Maduro trying to gather friends for his cause.  A low Oil price may be okay for a major producer like Saudi Arabia, who would be profitable even if the price dropped further, but for Iran to say they would be happy with a price of $25 per barrel is just tongue-in-cheek.  That sardonic tongue has been well interpreted, and the price has started to rally.

Even today, the words of OPEC Secretary General El-Badri speaking in Davos today, suggest the floor has been reached.  According to him, the low current oil prices may obtain for this month or so, but are likely to rebound from now on. 

With a low Oil price starting to hit shale and fracking producers in the U.S. and elsewhere, with announcement of job cuts in this industry worldwide, the Saudis must see that they are hurting their friends while they were trying to help, and it has been at a huge financial loss to themselves. 

The current oil surplus on the world markets will by common sense bring cuts in production in most countries, bar those who would continue producing more regardless in an effort to wear down their competitors and take as much market share as possible.  But certainly, on pure financial logic, why produce more to achieve a lower gross figure?  Some calculations suggest a price of $50 to $60 per barrel would be a cut off point.  Cheaper than that is just throwing away this precious commodity.
There is no sense in overproducing now and suffering shortages later.

A stable honest price will do the whole world a power of good, helping the OPEC and other oil producing nations with their revenues, and even allowing the shale and frackers to get back on stream, which will help maintain the only-recently-created jobs in that segment of the energy industry.
Choosing the golden route of stable pricing and stable supplies would be good for the whole world.

I predict this will be a golden year for global growth, as more and more nations try to fulfil the dreams of their people, and create growth and prosperity.  It is possible, if all are guided by the urge for peace and equitable exchange of resources, which God has granted to every nation.  What could be better than to win a prosperity for their people with those resources?

I am guided by a feeling that our Heavenly Father would be happiest to see all nations live in peace and prosperity.

I send you my good wishes for the New Year.

Kind regards,
Durudarshan H. Dadlani





The Oil price - what's happening?

Posted on November 24, 2014 at 4:05 PM Comments comments (7)
I had suggested a few months ago that the Oil price should be down, as had Oppenheimer chief economist Fadel Gheit.

Now it is down, well below $85.  At this level, I believe it is overdone, now at around $76 for Brent Ice and $71 for West Texas Intermediate.

Most of the economies who export oil would not find it viable to be producing at $70 a barrel - there would be no profit.

The only exception is Saudi Arabia.  Some have suggested that they would be profitable producing it at an even lower price.  However, the supply and demand dynamics as well as the political advantage would tip outside their interest, and economically, they would be throwing away their clout in the market by making it cheaper.  Under $70 a barrel will hurt a lot of the Oil exporting nations and their balance sheets.  Their infrastructure development projects would probably come to a halt in a short while, and that - forgive me pointing out - may induce a contraction in the world economy, that most people would rather not see.

In their own best interests as well as that of other OPEC nations, this Friday's meeting in Vienna I predict will produce a tightening on production quotas to restore the value of Oil. 

It is suggested that Russia may be reducing their production by about 300,000 barrels a day; if Saudi Arabia cuts their production by around a million barrels a day, the demand-supply dynamics may restore the price upwards.  The winter in the Western hemisphere is predicted to be cold, which will necessitate more fuel use.  If the price is restored upwards, that in fact would be best for the world, so all economies can continue as before (and better for those obtaining Oil at the current lower prices) without harming anyone too much. 

The world will be waiting for some sensible decisions in Vienna this Friday.

Kind regards,
Durudarshan H. Dadlani

www.durudarshan.co.uk/blog

The macro shifts that could help Recovery

Posted on May 13, 2014 at 3:59 PM Comments comments (12)
The U.S. stock market has recovered and gone beyond where it was at the marking point in October 2008.  I hear that even Lehman Brothers continues to make huge profits today.

The job creation in America last month was a bright number, at 300,000.  My suggestion is if such a number was created for another five months, it would be reasonable to say that the economic Recovery has strengthened significantly. 

No, that would not neccesitate further tapering.  I am of the opinion that Dr Yellen needs to perhaps increase the QE by about $5 billion a month for the foreseeable future, until Recovery is complete. 
At $45 billion a month, there is a shortage for the meantime to fund the social aspect, and cutting would have a similar impact to the dreadful sequestration, when poor students were being sent home because there was no provision for a mid-day meal for them.  (Of course, the wisdom may be to ask them to bring their own lunch and provide them the opportunity for education, and keep them from turning to delinquency).

The U.S. housing market seems to have stabilised, but has still scope for improvement.  While foreign investors and hedge funds will avail themselves of these opportunities, the American households are still holding to wait and see that there is sustained recovery in the jobs market with prospects long-term before they start to buy houses.  I of course would suggest that they should consider now, when rates may be just edging up a little from historic highs and prices remain affordable.


On this side of the pond, in the United Kingdom, the housing market has just become stable.  I don't see much upside this year, in view of cut-backs in social security for housing.  A lot of the estate agents relying on government funding for housing have closed shop; and I see a few landlords putting up their big houses for sale.  The time of easy regular income for landlords seems to be now over.  It may be a good chance for the government to provide housing to deserving people on low incomes if the rents are actually downwards from the recent highs.  That would make sense to the government purse as well as tenants.

Other than that the economy seems to be quite robust, with creation of jobs and employment opportunities for many, together with en masse creation of apprenticeships under the guidance and friendly policies of the Cameron government, which has been one of the most people sensitive government the Tories have formed so far.  The multi-cultural cohesion and contented atmosphere is something to be appreciated. 

The Greeks have got their economy improving, with 10 years Bonds at a yield around 6 percent.  Not many moons ago, the yields were an exhorbitant 30 percent or so.  The generosity of the European Union in bailing them out played a tremendous part in helping this situation to be reached.  All European nations, flowers of the same bouquet, must rejoice.  Spain is also seeing signs of improvement, and now that I hear of KKR looking to fund some Spanish bank, I guess the economy there will start to improve quite rapidly.  The huge opportunity is there, for people who like the good climate and culture, to buy properties there perhaps for retirement, and even start businesses there, which could be a way to create jobs in Spain. 

As governments adjust their policies to allow more immigration, especially to parts which are sparsely populated, more young blood can settle and rejuvenate the economies of the advanced nations.  The ageing populations need looking after, and the young immigrants would be happy to come and work hard and pay their taxes, buy houses, cars, books, TVs, etc, etc.  The economies would pick up.  That will I believe be the second leg of Recovery.

I believe the future is very bright, as Recovery will turn to Prosperity, which could be even within six months.  At least I pray for that.

Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.




Where next for the worldwide economic Recovery?

Posted on November 26, 2013 at 8:04 AM Comments comments (9)

What is the Mystery Method?

Posted on November 13, 2013 at 3:08 PM Comments comments (11)
Today the markets looked so mixed, I decided to take a stroll to the town and popped in at a bookstore.
 
There is something a bit forlorn about the carpets, and so many shelves looking emptied during open times gave me the impression that they are either going to lay on the decorations for Christmas or close down.  I hope not the latter, for there were half a dozen people browsing, in the 50 plus group, at one glance, so the type of people who enjoy books and likely have the spending power also. 
 
I couldn't see any books on technical analysis, nor on social media.  Perhaps that's what the empty shelves are for. 
 
My eye fell on a seductive book, The Mystery Method...a glance through it made me cheer up.
It says use women's perfume instead of aftershave!  and the man seen with women at a bar finds more attraction, just like the house just sold or the girl just engaged gets envious glances. 
 
The writer of that work on etiquette for the lothario or would be Casanova must know a few things, as he has even coached people to sit at a pub with him and directed them to go and chat up the woman of their fancy.  Certainly some willpower is necessary to go and chat the gorgeous woman no-one else seems to go up to.  That's what the Mystery Method teaches.  It's somewhat like giving someone the courage to trade.
 
Useful skills.
 
The book gives fresh amusement, such as seems to be absent in some of the oh-so-direct books that people probably buy in a hurry then wish they hadn't.  But this book liked like a nice cuddly cat.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Remembrance Day at the LDS, Ilford

Posted on November 10, 2013 at 11:40 AM Comments comments (9)
Remembrance Day at the Ilford chapel of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints was marked by the Bishop and congregation paying respects to the memories of the heroes and heroines who gave their lives in the quest for freedom from tyranny and injustice. 
 
How great a freedom we enjoy today as citizens of England is all due to the heroes and heroines who laid down their lives, as well as those valiant men and women who helped negotiate peace and brought forward this day into being.
 
Brother Jeremy Boyden : "We remember all those who made the ultimate sacrifice, like our Saviour, and we mark this day when peace was first agreed between all nations, on 11th November 1918".
 
The President's wife Sister Saltzman read a poem about Flanders Fields.
 
The Bishop's son, Brother Michael Onaolapo Jnr : "Greater love hath no man then He who gave up His own life so that others may live."
 
Sister Shannon Pickering, who was baptised in the Ilford ward two weeks ago, spoke a few words about the loving atmosphere that prevails in this land, thanks to people like her gransparents who did their bit during the war.
 
Sister Joanne Boyden read a famous poem, starting The glory shines upon my tears....She read the bit about hopes and expectations and stars and then became very emotional.  (I asked her later; she explained that her Mother lost two brothers in the war). (For the Fallen, Robert Laurence Binyon).
 
Brother Michael Lighten paid tribute to the great example of Captain Noel Godfrey Chavasse, recounting events in the Captain's life  in the Royal Army Medical Corp, who had to combine civilian with military duties at the front, where he saw within a few hours 189 casualties out of 600.  Captain Chavasse worked behind enemy lines for four hours, just 500 yards to safety.    On another occasion just 25 yards from enemy trenches. Altogether, Captain Chavasse saved the lives of approximately 20,000 men.
On another occasion, he worked with protection against an attack of mustard gas.
     Noel picked up his torch, and rose up in his time, working against impossible conditions of mud, blood and water.  Captain Chavasse was decoated with a rare second Victoria Cross.  Such men are rare indeed, and we all recall his courage with awe and celebration.
 
"For their tomorrows, we give our today"  John Maxwell Edmonds.  That was the spirit of the unknown solider, great soul who's memory we salute today.
 
We stood and paid our respects to the memories of the men and women who have won the freedoms that have greatly contributed to the enjoyment of peace and peaceful life that England enjoys today.
 
Bishop Onaolapo made these closing remarks : "We are here because of the sacrifices the soldiers, male and female, have made for us.  That is why the great atmosphere of stability and safety, friendliness and love prevails in this nation.  I am sure this country will go from strength to strength because of that, and I am proud to be a citizen of this great country of ours."
 
I believe this sums up the congregations sentiments on this day, when we salute those whose lives were lost, as well as those who brought about peace.
 
May God's blessings be upon all.
 
Amen
(written by Duru-darshan
Melchizedek Priest,
LDS Ilford ward)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Obamacare, some teething problems.

Posted on November 5, 2013 at 7:26 AM Comments comments (3)
It appears the Obamacare rollout has had teething problems, especially with the website interfacing.
 
Perhaps they should have stuck with their initial design, just to guage peoples interest without putting them off by asking comprehensive personal details.  It's like me asking you for your personal details before allowing you to read my blog.
 
Good news comes from Professor Gruber's analysis of the figures that would need or benefit from Obamacare, and provided provisions have been pencilled in for the expenditure, the launch should be quite successful, after the rationale is accepted by Joe Public. 
 
It seems that about 14 percent of the U.S. population would need Obamacare, the other 86 percent are adequately catered for. 
 
Of the 14 percent, Obamacare seeks to enlist the young working people, who don't have any kind of health care provision.  Once these people start to sign up in numbers, I presume the premium costs would start to come down.  It has to be attractive for people to sign up, not a cumbersome figure that people would be unwilling to pay and indeed may not see the immediate necessity to pay if they are currently in good health.  Everything being equal, most people would expect to continue to enjoy good health, and it seems a foolish waste of money to buy an insurance policy for health to most young people.  However, good health carries no guarantees into the future, and it is against this that people need to have cover, seeing how people's lives are sometimes marred by ill-health and their careers written off.  It is against this realistic look that young people need to consider taking up a policy to safeguard their future.
 
(In Britain it is straightforward enough.  Everyone is levied what is termed National Insurance, which is a fixed percentrage of one's income, and universally everyone gets medical cover under the National Health Service.  Some out of personal preference for quicker or better service decide to take out additional policies with private health insurance companies.  Side by side, the NHS and organisations such as the not-for-profit BUPA and Simply Health serve the population very well, in practical terms.)
 
If lot more people show an interest in what Obamacare offers, presumably the insurance premiums would start to come down and encourage more and more people to sign on, so it would actually deliver what would become affordable health care. 
 
As the issue is debated and considered, I guess it will gather acceptance, if not straight away then over a number of years.  Good health brings great benefits in enjoyment of life and work, creating a happy atmosphere and bringing prosperity to all, a welcome place.
 
Kind regards,
Durudarshan Dadlani