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Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

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DOW passes 16,000 - where next?

Posted on November 19, 2013 at 4:21 AM Comments comments (8)
Good morning, readers.  As the DOW passed 16,000 yesterday, I didn't write anything at that moment.  Regular readers of my column/blog will surely know that I was one of the few to suggest the DOW would go past 14,000 - then past 15,000 (the magic of 15,000) - and only recently 16,000.  I was of the view that the DOW could even do 17,000 this year, in the next five weeks or so.  A thousand points in say 25 working days, is it possible?  I shall wait to assess the markets further before I would commit to such a suggestion. 
 
In the meantime, I imagine a lot of punters will take some money off the table, and put into alternative markets.  India SENSEX has seen more inflows in last few days.
 
If not this year, then certainly I believe the DOW will hit 17,000 in next few months, on the proviso that the feel-good is assisted by the candy distribution, on which the panel will decide in the US this week.
 
That's all for now.
 
I wish joy and success to all my readers, in Netherlands, Fuzhou, California, India, Kenya, Tokyo, etc, etc.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
Caveat : Everyone trades entirely at their own risk, I am merely sharing my views.
 
 
(c) Copyright  19th November 2013, Durudarshan H. Dadlani.
 
 
 

Remembrance Day at the LDS, Ilford

Posted on November 10, 2013 at 11:40 AM Comments comments (9)
Remembrance Day at the Ilford chapel of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints was marked by the Bishop and congregation paying respects to the memories of the heroes and heroines who gave their lives in the quest for freedom from tyranny and injustice. 
 
How great a freedom we enjoy today as citizens of England is all due to the heroes and heroines who laid down their lives, as well as those valiant men and women who helped negotiate peace and brought forward this day into being.
 
Brother Jeremy Boyden : "We remember all those who made the ultimate sacrifice, like our Saviour, and we mark this day when peace was first agreed between all nations, on 11th November 1918".
 
The President's wife Sister Saltzman read a poem about Flanders Fields.
 
The Bishop's son, Brother Michael Onaolapo Jnr : "Greater love hath no man then He who gave up His own life so that others may live."
 
Sister Shannon Pickering, who was baptised in the Ilford ward two weeks ago, spoke a few words about the loving atmosphere that prevails in this land, thanks to people like her gransparents who did their bit during the war.
 
Sister Joanne Boyden read a famous poem, starting The glory shines upon my tears....She read the bit about hopes and expectations and stars and then became very emotional.  (I asked her later; she explained that her Mother lost two brothers in the war). (For the Fallen, Robert Laurence Binyon).
 
Brother Michael Lighten paid tribute to the great example of Captain Noel Godfrey Chavasse, recounting events in the Captain's life  in the Royal Army Medical Corp, who had to combine civilian with military duties at the front, where he saw within a few hours 189 casualties out of 600.  Captain Chavasse worked behind enemy lines for four hours, just 500 yards to safety.    On another occasion just 25 yards from enemy trenches. Altogether, Captain Chavasse saved the lives of approximately 20,000 men.
On another occasion, he worked with protection against an attack of mustard gas.
     Noel picked up his torch, and rose up in his time, working against impossible conditions of mud, blood and water.  Captain Chavasse was decoated with a rare second Victoria Cross.  Such men are rare indeed, and we all recall his courage with awe and celebration.
 
"For their tomorrows, we give our today"  John Maxwell Edmonds.  That was the spirit of the unknown solider, great soul who's memory we salute today.
 
We stood and paid our respects to the memories of the men and women who have won the freedoms that have greatly contributed to the enjoyment of peace and peaceful life that England enjoys today.
 
Bishop Onaolapo made these closing remarks : "We are here because of the sacrifices the soldiers, male and female, have made for us.  That is why the great atmosphere of stability and safety, friendliness and love prevails in this nation.  I am sure this country will go from strength to strength because of that, and I am proud to be a citizen of this great country of ours."
 
I believe this sums up the congregations sentiments on this day, when we salute those whose lives were lost, as well as those who brought about peace.
 
May God's blessings be upon all.
 
Amen
(written by Duru-darshan
Melchizedek Priest,
LDS Ilford ward)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

www.durudarshan.co.uk/blog

Posted on November 9, 2013 at 6:12 AM Comments comments (19)
My thanks to the staff at these Search Engines for listing and indexing my website, and to Vistaprint for so beautifully hosting my website over last 28 months.  It has built from strength to strength, drawing many visitors each day. Thanks to all :
                        Stumbleupon
                        Google (the multi-trillion dollar brain)
                        Twitter  (tweet tweet to you)
                        LinkedIn (professional and so well defined)
                        j.mp
                        Yahoo (book readers love you)
                        Bing (looks like people like spy thrillers)
                        and, just for good measure, a few porno sites, harmless fun is okay I'd say.
 
My blogs being read overnight are as follows :
  -  The ECB's 25 basispoint cut
  -  Stephanie Ruhle, CNBC interviewer 
         (She's actually an anchor for Bloomberg, working in New York)
  -  This is time for buyers to support Bangladesh factories
          (American companies have done so, may blessings be unto them)
  -  Thomas Sugrue's review of The Last Great Prophet
  -  The Bank of America share price.
 
----------------------------------------------LIZZIE--------------------------------------------------------------
 
Yesterday I heard the news that China has experienced good growth and far from a hard-landing which people feared it is experiencing very sound growth, with PMI figures up and increasing. 
 
One commentator has stated that China has several trillion dollars of reserves for investment, so I imagine the worldwide boom can continue.  Today I heard that 80 percent of visas being taken for visits to Portugal are for Chinese property investors.  This way, all economies with an open-door policy to encouraging property ownership and immigration would benefit from the Chinese wherewithal to sustain growth and Recovery. 
 
If the Chinese sources are suggesting U.S. is looking for $561 Billion for next six months, it augers well for the U.S. that the jobs numbers were pretty good and growth potential is inherent in America, and it would be very probable that China would support such borrowings and support, as they have done in the recent past. 
 
The luxury sector may start to rebound in China, who continue to buy Rolls Royce cars and jets as never before, and with the refocus on domestic consumption and increasing exports from China, it is apparent that the Honourable Xi Jinping is inspiring policies that will help the Chinese people achieve higher standards of living. 
 
For stability and optimism into the near future, what more could the world wish for?
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

How is the economic Recovery likely to continue?

Posted on October 28, 2013 at 8:34 AM Comments comments (101)
It has taken all of five years for the world economies to be restored to semblance of normality from the dark days of 2008.
 
Remember those days when the interest rates were quite high in the advanced economies, anything from 4 to 7 percent - and that for the benchmark European Central Bank, Federal Reserve and Bank of England rate. 
 
The crisis created by the collapse of Lehmann Bros sent shockwaves throughout the financial system worldwide, with stockmarkets tumbling, loss of confidence in trade, fall in house prices, and a mood of pessimism gripped the world. 
 
At the vortex of the crisis, when Oil price reached $147 per barrel, according to OPEC AND European Union figures, about $250 billion additional bills were imposed on the European Union's oil expenditure, and what a terrible crisis it created, making transportation and manufacturing unviable in many countries, e.g. Portugal, Spain, Greece, the extra drain sucking the life-force out of the system. 
At the peak of the crisis, people who were earlier working in the textile industry were suddenly without work, and wondering how they would find their cod-and-chips.  Enterprising young people and old were trying their hand at the e-commerce economy, and finding lot of work but little revenue.  The Prime Minister of a sovereign nation which was so prosperous not so long ago was visiting the heads of state of various nations, asking for help.  The social security systems were severally stretched, the tax revenues not corresponding to the new outflows.  The interest on the bonds became quite high, to attract investors.  Talented people from universities were not able to find opportunities to make a living. 
Demand on housing was as high as ever, but people didn't have money to rent, nor were banks willing to extend mortgages.  Indeed, banks and loan corporations were suddenly unviable, after the property price plunge and bankruptcies of many individuals. 
 
Today, comparatively, there has been a return of confidence.  Things are getting better.  Spain, Portugal and Greece have seen their bonds become more attractive to international investors.
But the worst is hardly behind us, yet the oil price remains so high.  The pending closure of the Grangemouth Refinery is an indicator of the havoc the oil price plays with the balance sheet of such businesses.  A business that was viable up until recently today stands in need of £300 million, with that it would support 800 jobs until trade is more favourable.  This may be a microcosmic illustration of what could be in store for the OPEC nations, unless they decide to reduce the oil price to a level that is affordable to the rest of the world, and would give the OPEC nations an on-going stable income on a long-term basis into the future, and allow the world to breathe, and help sustain Recovery. 
 
It took two-and-a-half years after the high oil price knocked the economies for six for a return to some kind of normal business activity.  Common sense tells me that the high price today will probably hamper growth for about a year-and-a-half, and it is already restricting growth and causing hardships in many places, e.g. Yemn, Kenya, India, and almost all the nations outside the G20. 
I WOULD RESPECTFULLY SUGGEST THAT THE OIL PRICE NEEDS TO BE BELOW $85  A BARREL.
 
That would help the hard-pressed developing nations meet their bills from their depleted reserves or devalued currencies, and enabling continuation of trade with the U.S., China, European Union, Israel and indeed OPEC, which would create a dynamic of mutual co-operation and support that may help all nations thrive and develop all their potential.  That is the missing piece of the jigsaw in the picture of a continuation of the worldwide economic Recovery. 
 
All the listening hearts of the world know what I am saying, and those who sit in positions of influence will do what is necessary, for that I pray.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

Andhra Pradesh and Odisha cyclones

Posted on October 26, 2013 at 12:27 PM Comments comments (92)
It seems a frequent occurrence, the coming of typhoons and cyclones that seem to hit the Eastern board of India every year, often hitting Odisha the hardest, together with Andhra Pradesh as well as Bengal.
 
This October, cyclone Phailin landed at Gopalpur in Odisha with a core speed of 200 Kilometres per hour, reducing to matchsticks the flimsy dwellings in the low-lying areas, flooding vast majority of farmland and dwellings.  Fallen trees and power lines added to the problems in travelling. Thanfully early warming of the oncoming SuperCyclone enabled the local municipal authorities put into action evacuation plans, together with assistance from the Army and Navy, which were on standby, and so only a tiny number of people lost their lives this time, compared to the 10,000 last time.
 
Nearly a million people had been evacuated, with a timely and well-ordinated effort by the authorities.  Social media must have helped, emphasising the dangers of flooding and the ferocity of the winds, and, most important, how much time they had to get out of harm's way.  Villagers became convinced of the seriousness and left for the safety of higher areas and strong public dwellings, travelling at the last minute by buses laid on by the local councils.  Thankfully, so many people saved their lives by not ignoring the messages. 
 
About 100,000 people were similarly affected in Andhra Pradesh also.
 
Odisha Chief Minister has requested the government in Delhi to provide approximately a billion pounds over and above the 572 million pounds which would be available in the state disaster response fund, such has been the devastation left by Cyclone Phailin. 
 
The government and local authorities are stretched trying to provide food, shelter and rehabilitation for the million plus people affected in the last fortnight.
 
As if that was not bad enough, another cyclone has hit the same region today, killing 29 and leaving another 85,000 marooned.  The government and the local communities have a huge task of rebuilding and rehabilitating nearly 1.3 million people in Eastern states, some of the poorest and least developed in India.  It would be a great blessing for the people if this encourages the construction of alternative housing in such areas. 
 
In the meantime, again I pray for the safety and well-being of the people of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh and Bengal.
 
Respectfully Invoking our Saviour's prayer I intone :"Winds, be thee still".
 
May God's love and care be with the people there.
 
Amen
(written by Duru-darshan
Melchizedek priest at Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints, Ilford)
 
Good news heard today, 9th November 2013.
Indian Prime Minister has announced allocation of funds of 1,000 Crores each for Odisha and Andhra Pradesh.  (approx. 1 Billion Pounds each).
 
 
 
 
 
 
  

Hello, New Zealand....silly song with a silly hat!

Posted on October 17, 2013 at 3:29 PM Comments comments (10)
Someone from New Zealand seems to remember the 'wear a silly hat and sing a song' article I blogged some time ago.  That, plus all others (over 1100 articles on my blog www.durudarshan.co.uk/blog) are there for your amusement. 
 
When I was much younger, some of my colleagues used to say that perhaps one day I should write a book and call it 'The Thoughts of Chairman Duru'.  My style must have been an amusing version of the great Chinese leader. 
 
My collection of work I have merely labelled for the meantime as 'From 2008 to Recovery'.  I started to put my words on Google soon after the collapse of Lehman Bros in October 2008, which had the effect of a whirlwind hitting the capital markets.  At that time, with subdued optimism and a fool's courage, I started to search for Worldwide Economic Recovery, May 2009, at Amazon.co.uk.  The computerised book search merely cancelled out the May 2009 and gave me a handful of economics books.  I found Nobel prizewinner but very modest hence great economist Dr. Edmund Phelps words inspiring.  I feel still that in his works we can uncover some of the dynamics of restructuring our economies and re-creating Recovery from the clean landscape after 2008. 
 
In the U.S., a lot of things seem to have been implemented, as well as in China, which has seen phenomenal growth in the last 30 years.  Looking at this giant nation which is still partly a command economy, with a hierarchy where commands are given and executed without loss of time, one marvels at the inspiration to build and modernise left them by their great leader Chairman Mao.  He was ruthless towards his enemies, but to his nation, he was a jovial comrade, leading them with emotional songs and poetry even when they worked hard on half empty stomachs.  China has done their Leader proud, and the tradition has continued with the Honourable Hu Jintao furthering friendship with Mr Obama, which will surely further blossom now with the Honourable Xi Jinping.
 
The world is open for trade and further development, with Britain and Mr Cameron today inviting participation from France and China in building a nuclear power plant here in England.  It is my belief that the lessons learnt from Fukushima as to how safe actually nuclear technology is, will be used to build a new generation of nuclear power plants throughout the world, which needs all alternative sources of power to build and continue forward. 
 
The worldwide economic Recovery will continue by the grace of God, with more trade developing between nations, more co-operation in investing and helping build the other nations, so that in peace and exchanging the resources each nation is blessed with, all can share what God has given, to the glory of our Father in Heaven, whose name is Allah to some, Bhagvan to others, who loves all humanity deeply and will surely help us all find solutions to the problems that confront us.  That I sincerely believe, and after the fiscal arrangements America has put in place last night, it seems for the meantime the music of Recovery will continue.
 
Putting on a silly hat and singing a song is a great idea of the Wal-Mart chairman.  Haeri Mai, that's what the sister at church says to us sometimes.  It means hello; to me, it sounds like my own Mum's name.
Today I hear the North and South parts of New Zealand have two new names in Mauri, the green island and the other one. Please do let me know when you write to me.  I'd appreciate your comments.
 
In the meantime, kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

"I trust according to the spirit of God that is within me"

Posted on July 28, 2013 at 4:34 PM Comments comments (2)
Today we had the Firesdie Evening meeting at the Ilford chapel of the LDS, otherwise known as the Mormons.
 
Brother Nana Aggrey quoted some very inspiring quotes from the Bible and the Book of Mormon.
 
Before Christ left, at His last supper, he told his apostles : "I am going to my Father.  I will leave you with a Comforter, who will be your companion."
 
What example should we follow ?  "Be an ambassador or representative of Christ.  Be the best.  Be learned and do as He would do."
 
"I trust you have not set your desire on riches".  This of course refers to material riches above one's needs, for those who may have become avaricious with Satan's temptation.
 
On Trust : "I trust according to the spirit of God that is within me."
 
"The only way we can have testimony is by fasting and going on our knees."
 
What don't we have to be grateful for.  "I am grateful we have something precious.  Sometimes we forget.  If we reflect on our blessings one by one, we all realize how blessed we all are." 
 
 
The Bishop is a living example of the message of Christ.  His name is Bishop Michael Onaolapo.  He has great understanding for the young single adults in the congregation, and everybody else. 
 
"The Lord in His immense mercy knows what difficulties and challenges you face.  But through all our difficulties and challenges, let the gospel of Jesus Christ be your foundation."
 
Brother Paul Stevenson closed the remarks by adding that the Romford Stake is to form a Single Adult Committee, chaired by President Saltzman with two representatives.  The purpose will be to plan and organise activities.  Finding marriage partners will not be the main purpose, although if that happens, it would a happy situation.
 
Brother John Phillips made an eloquent closing prayer, observing that the church and  congregation is a joyful place for people to meet.  The Ilford ward is one of the fastest growing congregations, with many baptisms each year.
 
Amen.
 
(written by Duru-darshan
Melchizedek Priest at the LDS
Chapel, Ilford)
 
 

Could the Himalayan tsunami have been averted?

Posted on July 22, 2013 at 5:30 PM Comments comments (2)
Thank you for visiting my blog and website, visitors from India with this question.  It will be a question of debate as to whether such an occurrence could have been tamed or averted, through metaphysical means or somehow or perhaps simply by not having removed the temple where the Shakti was said to have been established for many hundreds of years.  The Shakti of Kalimata. 
 
There is a strong belief among those who worship that Shakti of Kalkamata that Her temple should not have been moved.  There were learned people who had also concurred with that view.  Yet somehow the ultra-scientific minds are inclined to push the boundaries.  What has gone cannot be undone, so much damage occurred, so many lives were lost, and so many many more people are left homeless and with meagre means in the aftermath of this calamity. 
 
All that I would add to this debate is this : Yes, we must always respectfully observe religious inclinations of our culture, and not proceed with something if we are forewarned of the consequences.  This is not superstition, but paying homage and heed to the One who has made it all. 
 
A time will come when India will develop much further, and tap into all the possibilities of geothermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power.  Certainly a great need is there, and all tasks will be made easier and large-scale infrastructure feasible with added power capacity, that cannot be denied.  But thorough consultations should be made, and consideration given to any concerns.  It would be better to err on the side of caution than to proceed and then realise the disasterous effects.
 
The government faces this extra challenge of rehousing all these sad homeless people, and providing means of sustainance.  This is the sort of calamity that provides a challenge for any government, but it seems the able UPA under Dr Manmohan Singh-ji is doing all it can to help people survive and relocate.
The 10,000 troops and volunteers deployed in the rescue effort did a heroic job and deserve the nation's thanks.
 
I pray for the well-being of the survivors of the tsunami, and send them my brotherly love.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.

Hello, Oakland, Cairo, Goma

Posted on July 16, 2013 at 9:12 AM Comments comments (2)
The people are not happy with the acquittal in the U.S. of George Zimmermann, accused of shooting dead the teenager Trayvon Martin.  It seems people both black and white and all ethnic groups are pouring out onto the streets of Oakland and Los Angeles, California.  According to the law of the land, the jury found the accused aquitted, but the people are not satisfied with this verdict. 
 
In the minds and hearts of the people protesting for justice for the late Trayvon Martin, the verdict delivered is not what they expected.  I don't know if they are likely to now lodge an appeal for a re-trial, but the current situation suggests that may be an option to cool people down. 
 
Meanwhile, in Cairo the pro-Mursi suppoters are filling the streets and the situation is far from peaceful.  Here about 20 million out of 86 million of the Egyptian people voted for Dr Mursi.  He seems to be the accommodative voice of peace and tolerance in this region, and obviously the U.S. were happy to see him in charge.  The Muslim Brotherhood under his guidance provides an orthodox but democratic brand of Islam, which itself means Democracy, and keeping within their cultural interpretation, are a progressive people.  The U.S. educated Dr Mursi and his supporters insist that the deposting was a coup d'état, counting on the U.S. to withdraw aid support for Egypt, which would hurt the nation.  An accommodative stance for the Egyptian military leaders would be to give Dr Mursi a position in the political top.   
 
Goma in the Democratic Republic of Congo is a sad place, a country that is blessed with fertile land, plentiful rain, and used to provide plenty when it was Belgian Congo.  Alas, the dam at Matadi which was built to generate a huge amount of power, probably needs technical know-how to keep functioning and potentially provide the power that could electrify a good part of that region.  It seems sad that a million people of bare means are often being driven round and round in circles by a military that must now become their well-wishers and protectors and guides, so that the potential of this region can find fuller expression.
 
My Facebook friend Marc Allen, the living apostle of New Age thinking, sees sea changes around the globe which will bring changes in the collective consciousness.  His words today inspired a recap of the above scenarios.  Humanity loves peace, and strives for justice.  It is part of the unfolding picture today and when the leaders make efforts to provide pragmatic solutions to the situations that face them, then hope is there peace will be restored. 
 
Mahatma Gandhi popularised the concept of Satyagraha - non-violent struggle for justice.  Martin Luther King found success for his struggle with this method, although regretfully his life was cut short.  In South Africa, the great soul Nelson Mandela is glorious proof of this philosophy. 
 
I pray for peaceful outcome to all these situations.  As we emit peace from our hearts, so may peace reciprocate  from those around us.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Swollen legs

Posted on July 8, 2013 at 4:13 AM Comments comments (5)
Swollen legs are a most painful condition.  I am diabetic, and I developed swollen legs, and I was frightened.
 
My legs used to feel like lead.  The blood was not circulating properly.  In fact, blood was collecting in the lower parts of the legs.  I was determined to find relief for me, through some method, if a method there was.
 
First thing I remembered was something called 'bench exercises', which a reknowned magazine owner had once written about.  I tried what I imagined were bench exercises.  I would hold the edge of the table and try to raise up and down on my legs - do sit ups holding the table.  Very painful with bloated legs.
 
But observing Baba Ramdev doing his exercises on Aastah TV, I realized that the way to do this exercise is to lie flat on the back, then BREATHE OUT and bring one knee to the chest, BREATHE OUT again and bring the other knee to the chest.  In other words, knock the air out of the stomach, naturally and not forcefully.  The relax.  And, still lying down on the back, do cycling movements with your legs, for five, ten, fifteen, twenty minutes progressively as the legs become less bloated, more normal and are able to take more exercise.
 
Another thing, and in fact the first thing to do, is to soak your legs in a bucket of warm-to-hot water with some Dettol or antibacterial liquid, and enjoy this for 20 minutes to half hour, till the veins open up and gradually after a few days the circulation may be restored to normal.
 
The third thing is to wear tights (or hosiery) from a chemists shop, although I imagine any tights will do for the time-being if those are not available.  Wearing the tights will give pressure to maintain the good work done.  Then, if you follow this routine, within about eight weeks, your legs will start to look and feel normal.  Then use this routine with your own judgement, as and when necessary.
 
May friends, I wish you good health.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.