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|Posted on January 2, 2016 at 11:19 AM||comments (16)|
The chances are pretty decent of the worldwide economic Recovery continuing this year, with the promising possibility of enhancement.
Japan seems to have decided to continue its Stimulus, running at some $85 billion a month. This is gigantic for the size of their population, and guarantees the highest standards of living in the world to all Japanese citizens, plus a growing influence around the world, where their capital is likely to foster growth and development. For example, they have offered $35 billion to India for joint venture in developments of infrastructure, and this will certainly add to Japanese GNP.
India has done joint venture and co-operation treaties with Germany and France, to help develop some of the 100 new cities that Pradhanmantri Shree Narendra Modi announced at the beginning of 2015. Since then, he has visited China and Russia, and is signing up co-operation and trade agreements with every likely nation, including many in Africa. As a lot of Indians lived in Africa and grew up there, it seems India is taking an altruistic stance, wishing to repay with gratitude to their African brothers and sisters. This is a laudable gesture, and will enable the inherent and huge potential growth that is in places such as Lagos and Zimbabwe.
China too is extending its sphere of influence, Hon Xi Jinping visited so many nations and signing up trade and co-operation treaties. I can imagine joy for all these nations, where they will have expertise been made available to them, together with the machinery and transportation to fully benefit from their resources as well as create infrastructure developments which they so badly need. How can people not imagine dams, electricity, drinking water available on the doorstep, schools, dispensaries, hospitals, hotels, housing, tourists.....thriving economies....where God has blessed them with the rich fertile lands, mineral wealth, green vegetation, fragrant flowers, livestock to provide them plenty of milk. Africa is most likely to come up with the most number of billionaires soon....or if not, at least top social entrepreneurs who will instead contribute to their lands through holding together and creating business enterprises which serve the communities. If not dollar billionaires, these will be the enlightened spiritual billionaires who will do great good for their communities....at once, their people will have increasing standards of living. If the local African banks can back these entrepreneurs, they can create the development and wealth and growth that is the potential. I pray all these people receive the rich blessings from God.
The United States has steadily grown from the dark days of the 2008 meltdown to today, where the economy seems to have been totally restored, and is growing, with confidence, more jobs, more enterprise, more homeowners, more cars......Now the Fed will just need to fix the Debt Ceiling (in March, it seems). If they just expand the balance sheet to January 2017, the Obama administration will be home and dry, and all the senators and representatives can continue to collect their pay checks.
The alternative policies of the Tea Party crowd or Republicans like Donald Trump would see Obamacare repealed, and poor students being sent home due to lack of a free lunch at school. Those dark days caused due to sequestration are something that is best forgotten.
I pray Hillary Clinton shall become elected as the President at November 2016. Simply, it seems her destiny. It would resonate with the times and the perceptions of people today, everybody seeking self-expression in a democracy. Her election will enshrine the highest achievement in gender equality. That is a truth the people will not wish to hide, nor deny themselves. The time has come for this Democrat to rise as the dove, and sit in the highest office in the land.
She was very successful as a peacemaker in the Middle East when she was the Secretary of State. She has a natural gift for making peace agreements, and people trust her. She is a natural ambassador for peace. The world atmosphere will change when she becomes President, the whole tone of political relations will change, I believe, for the better. It is up to the people, to honour her, and elect her to the White House.
The One Trillion Eighty Billion Stimulus that the European Central Bank has rolled out has the promise of being extended beyond September 2016, as announced by their President Mario Draghi recently. That will offer ample scope for upgrade and innovation by the companies in the Euro Area (and by extension Europe) to meet the challenges of these times. On that note, the one thing the world is waiting for is the Juncker Plan. With reforms under way, Greece must surely be ready for it.
The low Oil price has depleted the reserves of the oil exporting nations, and their budget deficits have been bigger than envisaged. That suggests they will review their stance on cutting productions, and introduce some cuts before long; their stance has hurt their purses deeply, so some change may be expected. Russia too could follow suit, unless they are happy to foster a recession at home. Common sense would suggest oil price could begin to rise.....but when is only known to the bigwigs in OPEC and Russia. It is past the post-panic stage; it seems it is a time when they must be regretting not cutting back production earlier. And there would be no loss of face. Economic reality seems pretty harsh.
May I wish you good health and joy for the New Year.
Durudarshan H. Dadlani
(c) Copyright, but may be freely shared.
|Posted on February 6, 2015 at 7:09 AM||comments (12)|
Two Thousand and Fifteen may become a very good year, for most nations.
In China, where they recently cut rates and introduced a Trillion Dollar stimulus, the dynamics of internal growth and development as well as for the export markets suggests robust growth. The Honourable Xi Jinping is quoted as saying that China will achieve a new standard in progress. His words are welcome, and should give heart to anyone who may be fearing a slowdown in China. The actual production and shipments overseas ( I hear huge ship loads arriving in Britain, and for the first time in many years hear the trains ferry the goods across in the middle of the night in a huge procession) testify to that.
In the U.S., the start of Prosperity which I had foreseen for November 2014 seems to have materialised, and heatmaps of happiness continue to grow for the people there, with increasing numbers of auto purchases, mortgages taken out on single family units, more people in work both seasonal and permanent, lower Oil prices (although that is a mixed blessing), and good weather, apart from the recent snow.
I see the DOW going upto 18,500* by June this year, although the prospects for 2016 may be mild, with perhaps the saving grace of Hillary Clinton becoming elected as the President. Sentator Jeb Bush is a strong candidate, but I detect the dynamics at play will ensure the Democrats will again have tenure of the highest position in the land.
*I am just expressing my opinion, based on the logics of what I perceive. People should speculate at their own risk.
The Oil producing nations will have to work in co-operation and ensure a stable oil price, otherwise their dollar-denominated revenues will not meet the cost of their imports, and may lead to ques outside empty supermarkets, waiting to buy stocks (g00ds) which are being rationed, as in Venezuela.
It makes me cringe in shock to see the situation in Ukraine, where the rebels loyal to the Soviet leadership are wrecking havoc and creating ghost towns, where life seems at 1950s levels. Mr Putin can be generous and call these people off. He must extricate himself from this very messy situation. It is doing no one any good. Once peace is restored in this region, hopefully the Rouble will recover, and help people in Russia share the common prosperity that is developing worldwide. Oil seems to be bouncing around levels which may be optimum, and which may prove good for everybody, including the newly formed shale and fracking operators. Mr Putin has to apply the generosity principle, and help the kindred folks in Ukraine. That conflict is just so unnecessary, it is just like bullying people who at one time Mr Putin was willing to big a brotherly hug. I just don't believe it.
Under Pradhanmantri Shree Modiji, India is on track for the fastest growth since Independence, although the recent industrial productions figures at 2.6 percent seem so faint. Provided the RBI decide to enjoin the procession of Recovery and lower the benchmark repo rate, things should improve. There is a great natural appetite for investment into India, with the right atmosphere. Creating a major air hub to compete with what exists in the Arab Emirates may be a good raising of the bar, but let us all wait and see what will actually materialise. But in the meantime, the commencement of building a 100 new cities seems a great vision, and Modiji has my congratulations. I hope his BJP policymakers and bureaucrats will ensure implementation and fulfilment of such measures.
The caution that I mentioned....while times are good, save a little for the future, and build some reserves for the second half of 2016, when it will all come in handy.
May the Lord's blessings be upon all.
Durudarshan H. Dadlani
|Posted on January 25, 2015 at 5:08 PM||comments (10)|
The Trillion Euro stimulus announced this afternoon by ECB President Mario Draghi is nothing less than magnificent in my view, and will help create jobs and industry for millions, and turn into wealth. This stimulus augurs well for the European stockmarkets and for the Euro itself, which it now underpins with a very positive aspect. It seems to have been announced at the right time, and although the immediate market reaction may not have been wildly enthusiastic, it is a complex stimulus, needing people to understand and digest its implications.
In plain terms, it is 60 billion Euros per month over 18 months, starting from March to September 2016, meaning a total of 1,080,000,000,000* Euros. This was announced by Mr Draghi at the press conference in Frankfurt this afternoon.
It will serve the 19 nations that make up the Euro Area, or Eurozone, which now includes as from 1st January 2015 Lithuania. However, it will not be available at the moment to Greece, which benefits from arrangements already in place from the IMF, which gave them two bailouts and numerous haircuts. Perhaps there could be cross border mergers of some organisations which would benefit all?
There seems enough appetite for additional funds, especially by companies who have not been able to find funding from the banks so far. This is a ready segment that will be glad to be served by this Stimulus. As in England and Britain, where Mr Cameron has been visiting various companies, who have received funding now, something similar needs to be implemented in the Eurozone. Money invested in companies which need capital for upgrades of machinery, or cash flow to keep the factories operating while their customers arrange to pay them, will maintain employment and sustain livelihoods and, hopefully, even create wealth in the long term. That 'old school' way of trading had died recently in the credit crunch, and could well do with revival. It may be the clue to bring Recovery back on stream.
This Trillion Euro Stimulus was long awaited, and probably is just in time, now joining the money flow in the U.S., Japan and China, to maintain the worldwide economic Recovery, which shall flourish to Prosperity for all nations. The next stage surely must be for the BRICS nations to reduce their benchmark interest rates and for the Emerging Markets to do something similar, in due course to be followed by Africa perhaps? Or even simultaneously, and soon? Why not? The national books can become squared internationally, as each nation develops its resources, trades with the other nations, and brings development and growth at home. Would that not be the most marvellous thing to happen?
I wish you peace and prosperity, to every nation, man, woman and child.
P.S. Earlier I left out three 0's. Aw aw aw!
|Posted on May 13, 2014 at 3:59 PM||comments (12)|
The U.S. stock market has recovered and gone beyond where it was at the marking point in October 2008. I hear that even Lehman Brothers continues to make huge profits today.
The job creation in America last month was a bright number, at 300,000. My suggestion is if such a number was created for another five months, it would be reasonable to say that the economic Recovery has strengthened significantly.
No, that would not neccesitate further tapering. I am of the opinion that Dr Yellen needs to perhaps increase the QE by about $5 billion a month for the foreseeable future, until Recovery is complete.
At $45 billion a month, there is a shortage for the meantime to fund the social aspect, and cutting would have a similar impact to the dreadful sequestration, when poor students were being sent home because there was no provision for a mid-day meal for them. (Of course, the wisdom may be to ask them to bring their own lunch and provide them the opportunity for education, and keep them from turning to delinquency).
The U.S. housing market seems to have stabilised, but has still scope for improvement. While foreign investors and hedge funds will avail themselves of these opportunities, the American households are still holding to wait and see that there is sustained recovery in the jobs market with prospects long-term before they start to buy houses. I of course would suggest that they should consider now, when rates may be just edging up a little from historic highs and prices remain affordable.
On this side of the pond, in the United Kingdom, the housing market has just become stable. I don't see much upside this year, in view of cut-backs in social security for housing. A lot of the estate agents relying on government funding for housing have closed shop; and I see a few landlords putting up their big houses for sale. The time of easy regular income for landlords seems to be now over. It may be a good chance for the government to provide housing to deserving people on low incomes if the rents are actually downwards from the recent highs. That would make sense to the government purse as well as tenants.
Other than that the economy seems to be quite robust, with creation of jobs and employment opportunities for many, together with en masse creation of apprenticeships under the guidance and friendly policies of the Cameron government, which has been one of the most people sensitive government the Tories have formed so far. The multi-cultural cohesion and contented atmosphere is something to be appreciated.
The Greeks have got their economy improving, with 10 years Bonds at a yield around 6 percent. Not many moons ago, the yields were an exhorbitant 30 percent or so. The generosity of the European Union in bailing them out played a tremendous part in helping this situation to be reached. All European nations, flowers of the same bouquet, must rejoice. Spain is also seeing signs of improvement, and now that I hear of KKR looking to fund some Spanish bank, I guess the economy there will start to improve quite rapidly. The huge opportunity is there, for people who like the good climate and culture, to buy properties there perhaps for retirement, and even start businesses there, which could be a way to create jobs in Spain.
As governments adjust their policies to allow more immigration, especially to parts which are sparsely populated, more young blood can settle and rejuvenate the economies of the advanced nations. The ageing populations need looking after, and the young immigrants would be happy to come and work hard and pay their taxes, buy houses, cars, books, TVs, etc, etc. The economies would pick up. That will I believe be the second leg of Recovery.
I believe the future is very bright, as Recovery will turn to Prosperity, which could be even within six months. At least I pray for that.
|Posted on November 13, 2013 at 3:08 PM||comments (11)|
Today the markets looked so mixed, I decided to take a stroll to the town and popped in at a bookstore.
There is something a bit forlorn about the carpets, and so many shelves looking emptied during open times gave me the impression that they are either going to lay on the decorations for Christmas or close down. I hope not the latter, for there were half a dozen people browsing, in the 50 plus group, at one glance, so the type of people who enjoy books and likely have the spending power also.
I couldn't see any books on technical analysis, nor on social media. Perhaps that's what the empty shelves are for.
My eye fell on a seductive book, The Mystery Method...a glance through it made me cheer up.
It says use women's perfume instead of aftershave! and the man seen with women at a bar finds more attraction, just like the house just sold or the girl just engaged gets envious glances.
The writer of that work on etiquette for the lothario or would be Casanova must know a few things, as he has even coached people to sit at a pub with him and directed them to go and chat up the woman of their fancy. Certainly some willpower is necessary to go and chat the gorgeous woman no-one else seems to go up to. That's what the Mystery Method teaches. It's somewhat like giving someone the courage to trade.
The book gives fresh amusement, such as seems to be absent in some of the oh-so-direct books that people probably buy in a hurry then wish they hadn't. But this book liked like a nice cuddly cat.
|Posted on November 9, 2013 at 6:12 AM||comments (19)|
My thanks to the staff at these Search Engines for listing and indexing my website, and to Vistaprint for so beautifully hosting my website over last 28 months. It has built from strength to strength, drawing many visitors each day. Thanks to all :
Google (the multi-trillion dollar brain)
Twitter (tweet tweet to you)
LinkedIn (professional and so well defined)
Yahoo (book readers love you)
Bing (looks like people like spy thrillers)
and, just for good measure, a few porno sites, harmless fun is okay I'd say.
My blogs being read overnight are as follows :
- The ECB's 25 basispoint cut
- Stephanie Ruhle, CNBC interviewer
(She's actually an anchor for Bloomberg, working in New York)
- This is time for buyers to support Bangladesh factories
(American companies have done so, may blessings be unto them)
- Thomas Sugrue's review of The Last Great Prophet
- The Bank of America share price.
Yesterday I heard the news that China has experienced good growth and far from a hard-landing which people feared it is experiencing very sound growth, with PMI figures up and increasing.
One commentator has stated that China has several trillion dollars of reserves for investment, so I imagine the worldwide boom can continue. Today I heard that 80 percent of visas being taken for visits to Portugal are for Chinese property investors. This way, all economies with an open-door policy to encouraging property ownership and immigration would benefit from the Chinese wherewithal to sustain growth and Recovery.
If the Chinese sources are suggesting U.S. is looking for $561 Billion for next six months, it augers well for the U.S. that the jobs numbers were pretty good and growth potential is inherent in America, and it would be very probable that China would support such borrowings and support, as they have done in the recent past.
The luxury sector may start to rebound in China, who continue to buy Rolls Royce cars and jets as never before, and with the refocus on domestic consumption and increasing exports from China, it is apparent that the Honourable Xi Jinping is inspiring policies that will help the Chinese people achieve higher standards of living.
For stability and optimism into the near future, what more could the world wish for?
|Posted on October 28, 2013 at 8:34 AM||comments (101)|
It has taken all of five years for the world economies to be restored to semblance of normality from the dark days of 2008.
Remember those days when the interest rates were quite high in the advanced economies, anything from 4 to 7 percent - and that for the benchmark European Central Bank, Federal Reserve and Bank of England rate.
The crisis created by the collapse of Lehmann Bros sent shockwaves throughout the financial system worldwide, with stockmarkets tumbling, loss of confidence in trade, fall in house prices, and a mood of pessimism gripped the world.
At the vortex of the crisis, when Oil price reached $147 per barrel, according to OPEC AND European Union figures, about $250 billion additional bills were imposed on the European Union's oil expenditure, and what a terrible crisis it created, making transportation and manufacturing unviable in many countries, e.g. Portugal, Spain, Greece, the extra drain sucking the life-force out of the system.
At the peak of the crisis, people who were earlier working in the textile industry were suddenly without work, and wondering how they would find their cod-and-chips. Enterprising young people and old were trying their hand at the e-commerce economy, and finding lot of work but little revenue. The Prime Minister of a sovereign nation which was so prosperous not so long ago was visiting the heads of state of various nations, asking for help. The social security systems were severally stretched, the tax revenues not corresponding to the new outflows. The interest on the bonds became quite high, to attract investors. Talented people from universities were not able to find opportunities to make a living.
Demand on housing was as high as ever, but people didn't have money to rent, nor were banks willing to extend mortgages. Indeed, banks and loan corporations were suddenly unviable, after the property price plunge and bankruptcies of many individuals.
Today, comparatively, there has been a return of confidence. Things are getting better. Spain, Portugal and Greece have seen their bonds become more attractive to international investors.
But the worst is hardly behind us, yet the oil price remains so high. The pending closure of the Grangemouth Refinery is an indicator of the havoc the oil price plays with the balance sheet of such businesses. A business that was viable up until recently today stands in need of £300 million, with that it would support 800 jobs until trade is more favourable. This may be a microcosmic illustration of what could be in store for the OPEC nations, unless they decide to reduce the oil price to a level that is affordable to the rest of the world, and would give the OPEC nations an on-going stable income on a long-term basis into the future, and allow the world to breathe, and help sustain Recovery.
It took two-and-a-half years after the high oil price knocked the economies for six for a return to some kind of normal business activity. Common sense tells me that the high price today will probably hamper growth for about a year-and-a-half, and it is already restricting growth and causing hardships in many places, e.g. Yemn, Kenya, India, and almost all the nations outside the G20.
I WOULD RESPECTFULLY SUGGEST THAT THE OIL PRICE NEEDS TO BE BELOW $85 A BARREL.
That would help the hard-pressed developing nations meet their bills from their depleted reserves or devalued currencies, and enabling continuation of trade with the U.S., China, European Union, Israel and indeed OPEC, which would create a dynamic of mutual co-operation and support that may help all nations thrive and develop all their potential. That is the missing piece of the jigsaw in the picture of a continuation of the worldwide economic Recovery.
All the listening hearts of the world know what I am saying, and those who sit in positions of influence will do what is necessary, for that I pray.
|Posted on October 19, 2013 at 12:21 PM||comments (7)|
When I get so many readers from Kansas City to my blog, I think Narayani Namastute! Narayani Namastute! Yes, on the auspicious day of Full Moon, as it was yesterday, and with the conjunction of the debt ceiling raise decision in the U.S., I was wondering what the Kansas City Fed Chairman Narayanan Kocharlakota was thinking. I haven't read anything in the press, but he is normally an advocate of quantitative easing with deliberate measure. In this regard, again, it is early days to see a ballpark figure of the debt ceiling raise, and for the 4 months of January 15th, Congress has announced that the U.S. government will be fully funded. Their Comptroller is likely to know what that means, and how much money will continue to flow into the system until then.
In the meantime, it must be a great relief that the shutdown has been lifted. Never again, I can hear everyone saying. People have lost income and business, tourists have suffered not being able to visit monuments and museums they may have especially travelled over the States to visit. The short but very long 14 days have cost the U.S. dear, to the tune of some $24 Billion in lost revenue and productivity. The lesson is clear, such a shutdown over an extended period would cause the economy to slow down, and the economy to lose something on the GDP measure. It is like an economy in good shape being told to trim down. Never again, I hope.
As to the ballpark figure, my suggestion is $1.32 Trillion over 20 months, which works out at $66 Billion per month. After payment of some $60 Billion per month for the social security net, that leaves $6 Billion per month for enterprise and job creation. Jobs ranging in pay from $20 or $30,000 per annum to $250,000 per annum could be created, perhaps 300,000 or 400,000 per month. And he presto! within six months the U.S. would have whizzed on from Recovery to Prosperity.
But that's just a ballpark figure I am suggesting. At current Stimulus of $85 Billion per month, maybe it could be different. In view of the regime of Abenomics in Japan and their Stimulus of $85 Billion per month, the per capita differential is in Japan's favour. It is a theme to be explored over the coming days.
I am glad to note the global economic order has been stabilised after the agreement in the U.S. on the debt ceiling raise. As they all enjoy four months of relative calm and stability until 15th January and then to 7th February, I trust they will have this in mind and not give everyone, including themselves, a tough time.
Certainly, the costings and implementation of Obamacare is something they can review and see how technically it would be best implemented. The beginnings of the British NHS took about 40 years in gestation, before it received the blessing as a Royal Charter in 1947 under the kind King George. Obamacare is by comparison in its infancy, and needs to be tweaked and explored before this very sound principle can bring benefits to the citizens and the nation.
|Posted on September 24, 2013 at 5:10 AM||comments (1)|
The economic news seems pretty positive all round, for continued worldwide economic Recovery. India of course is out of sync on the benchmark interest rate, but it is a dynamic economy where the leadership are a little bit too cautious to accelerate growth. For the moment it seems it will just motor along steadily, and blaming the high inflation on the scarcity of onions, which they are plentifully exporting.
The Greek economy seems to be on the mend, with a secondary surplus expected. With a nation with a population of 20 million and a large area, perhaps they need to encourage people who enjoy farming. The potential must be huge with good climate, abundance of water and good weather as well.
The situation in Spain seems pretty positive too, with a growth of 0.2 percent expected for the second quarter. The benefits of creating jobs and filling up the empty housing, additionally with putting more buses on the roads to service secluded areas more frequently, will surely add to the growth. Blessed with good weather and friendly people, I believe there is huge potential for continued growth in Spain.
A Latin version of Hollywood and Bollywood must surely be a possibility, with intercontinental co-productions?
Germany, well the situation seems so good, with Mme Angela Merkel back in the driving seat.
As regards the U.S., the talk of taper seems both promising and cautionary. As Treasury Minister Jack Lew has suggested, the Debt Ceiling issue needs addressing quite soon. The talk to me seems like a tapered candle, or a washer to be tapered on a lathe...I suppose Mr Bernanke will suggested what will need to be done. The debt ceiling fix of a $1.45 Trillion in August 2011 was a job well done, adding to the money supply and creating the cash flow that has translated into so many jobs, a pick up in the housing market, and continued growth in the US economy, creating heatmaps of happiness for so many more people. The stockmarkets and the banks seem in robust health, creating a huge pool of capital that will service the needs of people as and when they need to borrow and spend. Cash rich companies like Apple attest to that fact.
What would be great would be perhaps the creation of 500,000 jobs per month on a costing of $7 billion per month. If that much additional capital was infused into the system by way of the taper, that would be just great. Five years after the collapse of October 2008, the economic systems seem in much better shape, with strong financial institutions and safeguards in place. A steady worldwide Economic Recovery seems to have been achieved, through co-operation and understanding of nations and the grace of God. In celebration and to continue with Recovery, the world counts on seeing the Republicans and the Democrats in Washington support a cordial agreement, and light a new candle to Prosperity.
Ladies and gentlemen, you may step up to the alter, and light the candle that will add substance to the drams of humanity.
(written by Duru-darshan)