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|Posted on October 29, 2013 at 7:08 AM||comments (11)|
Following in the math of the sequestration cuts, followed by uncertainity about the U.S. Debt Ceiling raise, and the unwanted shutdown and furloughs, it seems apparent that confidence has taken a bit of a knock, especially with regards to the United States economy, but obviously timely positive action would restore that.
The news that Ms Janet Yellen was nominated by Mr Obama to the chair of the Federal Reserve was actually happy news to the markets, welcoming this dove of the financial system, assured that the punchbowl would be replenished and the taper would be quite some time away now.
Once that nomination is confirmed by one and all, that would send the right signal and boost the confidence that the economy needs right now, in view of the temporary fix of the nation's capacity to continue funding itself until only 15th January 2014.
Around that time Chairman Ben Bernanke steps down, and willing bi-partisan co-operation to extend
the reserve balance capacity and support Ms Yellen in her post will ensure great and much needed stability to the world financial system, and not only to that of the United States.
The housing numbers yesterday were obviously disappointing, indicating a shake in the confidence of house buyers. That is but natural, in view of the uncertainity created by the last-moment and then only such a short temporary fix of the situation.
When I was in California and Las Vegas last year, October and November, I met lots of people and heard their stories about how hopeful they are, and how they are happy working hard, to buy their first house and know things are okay with their economy. These were people who are taxi-drivers, concierges, receptionists, cleaners, waiters, waiteresses, a scientist working for an oil major, people who had made America their home, and who were sharing in the American dream.
It can obviously help the well-being of the nation if normal lending practices continue, where the individual man or woman and families are encouraged to buy their own houses, with the confidence in the system that things will continue positively, so they can believe in the virtue of borrowing and investing for the future.
The oil price on both sides of the Atlantic is so high, and hopefully needs to be around the $85 mark to encourage normal growth in the economies outside the G20 nations. Their depleted reserves and devalued currencies vis a vis the major currencies don't give them a chance. A dose of kindness now would greatly assist growth throughout the world, which would bring great mutual benefits to all nations. When we eat the food that we can so easily buy which has been exported from some country, we must spare a thought for the people there, who may not be able to afford such items in their own countries. When I wear my beautifully stitched shirt, my heart sends blessings to the factory workers in Bangladesh. It was heartening news to hear of American companies giving them continued support and helping them make the textile industry safe for workers.
With such friendship and trade between nations, each cog will help turn the small wheel which in turn will drive the greater wheel, and the path to continued economic Recovery, and yes, ultimately a growing Prosperity for all, shall continue. For that I pray.
|Posted on June 25, 2013 at 6:56 AM||comments (31)|
According to Reg Varney, the Fox news commentator, the world's central banks collectively have pumped in some Fifteen Trillion Dollars into the economies over the last few years. This is a hugely interesting figure...it should suggest the world is swimming in money, and not in need of further stimulus at all at all...
So far as publicly available figures indicate, the U.S. raised its Debt Ceiling by $2.15 Trillion Dollars on 3rd August 2011, and thereafter via QE 2 and QE 3 by a further $85 Billion a month, which has been trimmed by 1/12 since February 2013 since the Sequestration cuts kicked in.
In the United Kingdom, some £375 Billion of Credit Easing facilities have been introduced by the Bank of England, all told, till currently.
I wonder which other central banks have printed that gigantic amount of cash and released it into the system.
The current figures from Russia indicate a slow-down there, with GDP figures progressively being downwards, mainly due to lowering Oil prices on which the economy relies so heavily. Oil prices in the global context are of course likely to head down further, if recession is to be avoided once again.
The current oil stockpiles in the Middle East and the Strategic Oil Reserves would corroborate this scenario, and it can only help the oil exporting nations to keep the oil price low for some time till economies can pick up again.
To avert a slow-down at home which would impact the world, I believe the BRICS nations, with the exception of China, should consider a generous cut in the benchmark interest rate. I would suggest, that is the silver bullet, and they ought to utilise it.
China under the Rising Star of Chairman Xi is bound to do well and he likes progress and prosperity for his people; however, they are unlikely to keep on manufacturing goods cheaply and ship them out to the rest of the world, and on credit at that. A greater demand and consumerism in China itself is likely, and a re-focus is probably causing the current mild hiccup. It is a matter of record that when Honourable Xi was a rising star in his party, his comments and suggestions created a boom. I cannot believe that now he is in charge, anything but the best will be possible for China.
With increased trade between nations, and extension of credit facilities and investment into one another's cultures, a great hope of continuation of the world economic Recovery is always bright.
|Posted on June 23, 2013 at 4:50 PM||comments (4)|
There is something about the chemistry, about the language and communication of the mind and soul, which brings people together or drives them apart. It is this chemistry between people that I would blame for.....or, rather, a change in the chemistry between people that I would blame for separation and divorce.
I am surprised that Napoleon Hill was not given the Noble Prize, but then again there is no category in the Noble Prizes into which his work fits. Perhaps, on that point, I would suggest there should be another category created by the Trustees of the Noble Foundation. The Increasing of Human Understanding.
Napoleon Hill interviewed 500 of the most successful people in America in the 1920s, and from those interviews he wrote many articles, published in his Hill's Success Magazine. But a few people made a huge impression on him, viz Andrew Carnegie, Firestone, Henry Ford, Dr.Alexander Graham Bell, and Dr. Thomas Alva Edison. And yes, Mr Edwin Barnes, who said it could not be done, that is to say, the writing of a blueprint for success based on the interviews with successful people.
Napoleon Hill turned that into a questions: Who said it could not be done? and went on to publish his Think and Grow Rich, a book that sells well throughout the world, in many languages, in number just after the sales of the Bible, Koran and Bhagavad-Gita and other religious masterpieces.
In his research, Napoleon Hill says that the first three years of a marriage often have petty squabbles and friction, but the love that exists between the two will carry it through. The next fifteen years are those in which the lucky couple start to look alike in their eye movements and thinking, influencing their value judgements and expressions, meaning the happy couple have achieved understanding of one another, and a state of harmony exists between them that we attribute to the magic of chemistry.
A state of harmony, an instinctive understanding, an automatic understanding of mutual goals. It is like both have the same road-map, or at least complementing road maps.
Those for whom a partnership does not work, it seems are rather like a horse-drawn carriage where the horses want to pull in differing directions. Where it is not possible to bring harmony of direction, abandonment of the journey becomes the alternative. Such is what happens in business partnerships as well, and in politics as well.
A question that may help bring harmony back is : What was the road map that brought the partners together in the first place? Can it be modified and restored? If the answer is Yes, then hope still remains for reunion and success.
|Posted on June 18, 2013 at 3:54 PM||comments (6)|
Some good points have come out of the G8 summit held in Enniskillen, Ireland.
It was prefaced with the arrival of President Obama, where he started with an endearing and inspiring speech, that is sure to have sowed the seeds of peace and progress through co-operation and understanding, a theme which has built and matured in Ireland since the visit of President Clinton fifteen years ago.
The G8 leaders seem to have agreed on tackling the question regarding tax havens and thereby tax evasion by corporations and individuals. The loopholes which have till now existed are going to be closed through legislation and a requirement for corporations and individuals to disclose fuller details regarding creation of profits, taxes paid, where domiciled, where taxes paid, etc. This will mean the national treasuries benefit from tax collection.
Such legislation will also help the Emerging economies, such as Russia, India, South Africa, Brazil and China (otherwise the BRICS nations) who at the moment are bereft of tax to the tune of some $180 Billion which corporations operating in their jurisdictions adjust through having their identity domiciled elsewhere. This will be a boon for all these economies.
President Obama mentioned the trade amounting to One Trillion Dollars annually each way between the U.S. and the European Union, and the fact that Europe invests Four Trillion Dollars into U.S. annually, and the U.S. does likewise into the European Union. This helps to preserve some 9 million jobs on both sides of the Atlantic. This is a cause for mutual celebration.
Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke has reiterated the policy of continuing with the stimulus, but tapering it if improvement or deterioration in the economy dictates. In any case, the policy will be to take a step away and observe the need of the economy. This augers well for continuation.
The Bank of Japan seems to have tamed their stimulus, and this again augers well so that it does not aid inflation. To the contrary, Japanese goods and investments available overseas will create a good market, and help prosperity, especially in the developing world.
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