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|Posted on January 2, 2016 at 11:19 AM||comments (16)|
The chances are pretty decent of the worldwide economic Recovery continuing this year, with the promising possibility of enhancement.
Japan seems to have decided to continue its Stimulus, running at some $85 billion a month. This is gigantic for the size of their population, and guarantees the highest standards of living in the world to all Japanese citizens, plus a growing influence around the world, where their capital is likely to foster growth and development. For example, they have offered $35 billion to India for joint venture in developments of infrastructure, and this will certainly add to Japanese GNP.
India has done joint venture and co-operation treaties with Germany and France, to help develop some of the 100 new cities that Pradhanmantri Shree Narendra Modi announced at the beginning of 2015. Since then, he has visited China and Russia, and is signing up co-operation and trade agreements with every likely nation, including many in Africa. As a lot of Indians lived in Africa and grew up there, it seems India is taking an altruistic stance, wishing to repay with gratitude to their African brothers and sisters. This is a laudable gesture, and will enable the inherent and huge potential growth that is in places such as Lagos and Zimbabwe.
China too is extending its sphere of influence, Hon Xi Jinping visited so many nations and signing up trade and co-operation treaties. I can imagine joy for all these nations, where they will have expertise been made available to them, together with the machinery and transportation to fully benefit from their resources as well as create infrastructure developments which they so badly need. How can people not imagine dams, electricity, drinking water available on the doorstep, schools, dispensaries, hospitals, hotels, housing, tourists.....thriving economies....where God has blessed them with the rich fertile lands, mineral wealth, green vegetation, fragrant flowers, livestock to provide them plenty of milk. Africa is most likely to come up with the most number of billionaires soon....or if not, at least top social entrepreneurs who will instead contribute to their lands through holding together and creating business enterprises which serve the communities. If not dollar billionaires, these will be the enlightened spiritual billionaires who will do great good for their communities....at once, their people will have increasing standards of living. If the local African banks can back these entrepreneurs, they can create the development and wealth and growth that is the potential. I pray all these people receive the rich blessings from God.
The United States has steadily grown from the dark days of the 2008 meltdown to today, where the economy seems to have been totally restored, and is growing, with confidence, more jobs, more enterprise, more homeowners, more cars......Now the Fed will just need to fix the Debt Ceiling (in March, it seems). If they just expand the balance sheet to January 2017, the Obama administration will be home and dry, and all the senators and representatives can continue to collect their pay checks.
The alternative policies of the Tea Party crowd or Republicans like Donald Trump would see Obamacare repealed, and poor students being sent home due to lack of a free lunch at school. Those dark days caused due to sequestration are something that is best forgotten.
I pray Hillary Clinton shall become elected as the President at November 2016. Simply, it seems her destiny. It would resonate with the times and the perceptions of people today, everybody seeking self-expression in a democracy. Her election will enshrine the highest achievement in gender equality. That is a truth the people will not wish to hide, nor deny themselves. The time has come for this Democrat to rise as the dove, and sit in the highest office in the land.
She was very successful as a peacemaker in the Middle East when she was the Secretary of State. She has a natural gift for making peace agreements, and people trust her. She is a natural ambassador for peace. The world atmosphere will change when she becomes President, the whole tone of political relations will change, I believe, for the better. It is up to the people, to honour her, and elect her to the White House.
The One Trillion Eighty Billion Stimulus that the European Central Bank has rolled out has the promise of being extended beyond September 2016, as announced by their President Mario Draghi recently. That will offer ample scope for upgrade and innovation by the companies in the Euro Area (and by extension Europe) to meet the challenges of these times. On that note, the one thing the world is waiting for is the Juncker Plan. With reforms under way, Greece must surely be ready for it.
The low Oil price has depleted the reserves of the oil exporting nations, and their budget deficits have been bigger than envisaged. That suggests they will review their stance on cutting productions, and introduce some cuts before long; their stance has hurt their purses deeply, so some change may be expected. Russia too could follow suit, unless they are happy to foster a recession at home. Common sense would suggest oil price could begin to rise.....but when is only known to the bigwigs in OPEC and Russia. It is past the post-panic stage; it seems it is a time when they must be regretting not cutting back production earlier. And there would be no loss of face. Economic reality seems pretty harsh.
May I wish you good health and joy for the New Year.
Durudarshan H. Dadlani
(c) Copyright, but may be freely shared.
|Posted on August 16, 2013 at 7:09 PM||comments (1)|
It seemed the stockmarkets had topped, and people were willing to take out some profits. Equally, it seemed there was fresh money waiting to be invested, especially with promise of low interest rates for the foreseeable future in Europe, U.S., Australia and Japan, as well as China, all of which are using policies to generate further growth.
The weak 0.1 percent GDP growth recorded in the second quarter in Eurozone has certainly helped the preceding period not being classified a recession, but the growth is very weak nevertheless, and demands continued stimulus with low interest rates.
The Bank of England's Guvnor Mark Carney has suggested an accommodative policy, indicating a low rate would obtain until such time as the unemployment falls to 7 percent. This is a mixed blessing, as the government would prefer to see the rate fall faster but at the same time a prolonged period of a low rate is good for boosting the economy, as it generates growth. All that really remains to be seen is the local banks loan the money out to entrepreneurs, start-ups, traditional small businesses seeking to expand capacity and such enterprises. Britain's bankers will have to be just as willing to lend venture capital as the reputed bankers across the pond if Britain is to emulate the growth that has been created in the U.S. in the last four years. As they say, money is inert matter and has life breathed into it when it circulates, giving people a living, fulfilling their dreams, going round and coming back with interest. That is how wealth becomes created, utilizing what God has given in the form of farming and resources, to which is added human ingenuity and creativity, producing goods and services that have particular value and becoming marketable. How kind God is, the bankers must appreciate and help the cause of humanity in their endeavours by lending money to them, so they can buy houses, cars, trucks, vans, iPods, cooking utensils, giant TVs, etc, etc. Surely they would like to see people prosper?
The tepid movements in the stockmarkets today seem to suggest that the profit taking or jitters may be over. Despite continued bad news of clashes in Egypt, the markets were quite stable. It seems the conference called in Europe next week to address this issue by the European Union is probably likely to consider curtailment of aid to Egypt. The U.S. has continued in a generous spirit not to have touched on this topic, hoping the situation there will be resolved peacefully in a short period. Hopefully the Egyptian leadership and the people of Egypt will value this generosity, and try to reconcile their differences and work out a formula to appease both sides and let peace rule in their midst.
People seeing dead bodies being carried to a makeshift morgue were lamenting 'Haram, haram' - meaning they did not expect death when their relatives had just gone to protest peacefully.
I pray that God inspires the people to listen to the voice of common sense and reconcile their differences, and come to a solution that is just for all.
I pray for peace in Egypt.
|Posted on August 15, 2013 at 6:17 PM||comments (1)|
It has been called a massacre, the deaths of nearly 500 people in clashes between the military and pro-Mursi supporters, after the ruling junta lost patience with the protestors occupying squares in Cairo and Alexandria. Bulldozer-tanks demolished the barricades Dr Mursi's supporters had built around themselves, and soon thus provoked the people started to throw bricks and stones at the tanks, and soon the army moved in to confront the protestors.
In the midst of this, or soon after it started, the Interim Vice President Mr El Baradei resigned, leaving the leadership mostly composed of military brass headed by General Sisi.
It has been a sad situation, and I hope and pray that during the one month of a State Emergency, when curfew is being enforced rigidly at night time, the ruling junta will consider the possibilities of how to now form a civilian government under its aegis and continue with restoration of the democracy and continuation of the economy vis a vis the world. The best solution, a pragmatic jigsaw fix, would be to reinstate Dr Mursi in a power-sharing leadership, which will appease the Muslim Brotherhood and not give U.S. the excuse to withdraw aid, which it could well do if the leadership is a de facto military one.
Under the aegis of the military, Dr Mursi can be relied upon to interpret the constitutional parameters of his duties. Perhaps if peace prevails, Dr El Baradei hopefully could be asked to also resume his position, perhaps as Joint Vice President with Dr Mursi. I am taking the liberty to give my impartial view, but I believe the Egyptian democracy must be saved at this first sign of trouble, so that it can continue to function normally with the tourism and trading, thereby putting this nation onto a path of Recovery, which it can achieve if there is a peaceful outcome to the current situation. I dread to imagine this nation of Nasser's and Anwar Sadat's people, who believe in Arab unity and regional peace, having such violence and anger which has visited Egypt in the last few days. I pray all sides will show restraint and unending patience and help to resolve the crisis peacefully.
The stock market in Cairo was a plunger, and the world markets too have taken fright, fearing escalation of violence in Egypt in the absence of a sound plan of reinstatement of an acceptable leadership that will appease the Muslim brotherhood protestors, who feel robbed of legitimate representation in the form of Dr Mursi, who the Yemini Nobel laureate Tawakkol Karman has described as 'the Nelson Mandela of the Arab world'.
The Oil price has headed up again, when really it should be heading down given the weak figure of 0.1 percent growth in Eurozone GDP. Okay, we don't have a recession, but it is very weak growth.
The high unemployment in Israel should give people food for thought. Oil price is far too high, and a few traders becoming millionaires will leave a lot of people suffering, especially in places like Yemen, Kenya, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar and China. High oil prices just slow the economies down, that is now pure common-sense, based on extensive data from the time Oil hit a high of $147 and saw the world economies suffer a slow down and the deepest recession in living memory.
May Allah inspire the Egyptian people to bridge their differences and set their nation back on track for peace and Recovery. My prayers are with all brothers and sisters in Egypt.
|Posted on July 31, 2013 at 1:52 PM||comments (4)|
Hello, dear Readers, my posts this month have been as follows. There was a slight problem with my Vistaprint site, and I was not getting the up-to-date statistics recently, so in case there has been a problem with the communication, I thought I'd bring you up-to-date with my posts :-
1) Hello, Oakland, Cairo, Goma 16/7
2) In God we trust, Charity, Spiritual and Temporal Blessings 17/7
3) Detroit filed for Chapter 9 Bankruptcy 19/7
4) Hello Everybody...Oakland, Detroit, Miami 21/7
5) Could the Himalayan tsunami have been averted? 22/7
6) Potholes, potholes everywhere...hello India 25/7
7) Right selection, with confidence, will restore Prosperity 26/7
8) Baba Ramdev shop in Seven Kings 27/7
9) 'I trust according to the spirit of God that is within me' 28/7
As always, I look forward to receiving your comments. Keep them coming in- at lasts count, I had received a gratifying 806 comments to 1180 posts. Wey hey, readers, I am glad to hear from you.
Wish you a joyful time in your activities.
|Posted on July 16, 2013 at 9:12 AM||comments (2)|
The people are not happy with the acquittal in the U.S. of George Zimmermann, accused of shooting dead the teenager Trayvon Martin. It seems people both black and white and all ethnic groups are pouring out onto the streets of Oakland and Los Angeles, California. According to the law of the land, the jury found the accused aquitted, but the people are not satisfied with this verdict.
In the minds and hearts of the people protesting for justice for the late Trayvon Martin, the verdict delivered is not what they expected. I don't know if they are likely to now lodge an appeal for a re-trial, but the current situation suggests that may be an option to cool people down.
Meanwhile, in Cairo the pro-Mursi suppoters are filling the streets and the situation is far from peaceful. Here about 20 million out of 86 million of the Egyptian people voted for Dr Mursi. He seems to be the accommodative voice of peace and tolerance in this region, and obviously the U.S. were happy to see him in charge. The Muslim Brotherhood under his guidance provides an orthodox but democratic brand of Islam, which itself means Democracy, and keeping within their cultural interpretation, are a progressive people. The U.S. educated Dr Mursi and his supporters insist that the deposting was a coup d'état, counting on the U.S. to withdraw aid support for Egypt, which would hurt the nation. An accommodative stance for the Egyptian military leaders would be to give Dr Mursi a position in the political top.
Goma in the Democratic Republic of Congo is a sad place, a country that is blessed with fertile land, plentiful rain, and used to provide plenty when it was Belgian Congo. Alas, the dam at Matadi which was built to generate a huge amount of power, probably needs technical know-how to keep functioning and potentially provide the power that could electrify a good part of that region. It seems sad that a million people of bare means are often being driven round and round in circles by a military that must now become their well-wishers and protectors and guides, so that the potential of this region can find fuller expression.
My Facebook friend Marc Allen, the living apostle of New Age thinking, sees sea changes around the globe which will bring changes in the collective consciousness. His words today inspired a recap of the above scenarios. Humanity loves peace, and strives for justice. It is part of the unfolding picture today and when the leaders make efforts to provide pragmatic solutions to the situations that face them, then hope is there peace will be restored.
Mahatma Gandhi popularised the concept of Satyagraha - non-violent struggle for justice. Martin Luther King found success for his struggle with this method, although regretfully his life was cut short. In South Africa, the great soul Nelson Mandela is glorious proof of this philosophy.
I pray for peaceful outcome to all these situations. As we emit peace from our hearts, so may peace reciprocate from those around us.
|Posted on July 10, 2013 at 12:51 PM||comments (2)|
The price of the West Texas Intermediate and the Brent crude, traded on the International Commodities Exchange (hence ICE) seems to be spiking upwards and will probably match any time soon.
The situation in Egypt may have caused that spiking, but since Egypt is not a major oil exporter, there can be no logical reason for the price of oil to be so affected. However, perhaps the excuse is good that both prices move together in tandem, to create a global parity.
The Fitch downgrading of Italy's rating today may be contested; however, it indicates the weak state of the Recovery in Europe. Similarly, the news from China that their boom is not so strong as figures had previously indicated (due to numbers which had been inflated) shows there is euphoria amongst the traders. This brings a reality check, especially for the Oil price bulls, who perhaps will ignore the plentiful supply that currently prevails and the strategic oil reserves that are always there and have not been utilised for a long, long time.
Why Oil price should be up under the circumstances can only be explained by some traders and commentators, whose kudos will be to make a fast buck or get some furthering of controversy on the grades and quality of oil. Great talking points, but not anything to help the worldwide economic Recovery, which would suggest the Oil price ought to be lower. I imagine the OPEC economists and Ministers would agree, to sustain their own economies on a growth phase. If the rest of the world stalls, the reduction in their GDPs will automatically have an effect on the OPEC nations as well. The world is a joined-whole, where development and prosperity moves hand in hand for all together.
I have previously suggested that the Oil price needs to be under $85 a barrel for the worldwide economic Recovery to be sustained. At that price, most of the infrastructure development in the OPEC nations can be viable, according to several Ministers comments that I have noted previously. The current spike I hope will be only temporary, until the price starts to trundle down once again. Market forces and the situations worldwide will hopefully prove favourable.
Sometimes the numbers of contracts traded at higher prices are so thin; perhaps the reporting price ought to be based on a wider number of actual sales, from a reliable source.
I will be pleased to receive your comments on this issue.
|Posted on July 8, 2013 at 4:13 AM||comments (5)|
Swollen legs are a most painful condition. I am diabetic, and I developed swollen legs, and I was frightened.
My legs used to feel like lead. The blood was not circulating properly. In fact, blood was collecting in the lower parts of the legs. I was determined to find relief for me, through some method, if a method there was.
First thing I remembered was something called 'bench exercises', which a reknowned magazine owner had once written about. I tried what I imagined were bench exercises. I would hold the edge of the table and try to raise up and down on my legs - do sit ups holding the table. Very painful with bloated legs.
But observing Baba Ramdev doing his exercises on Aastah TV, I realized that the way to do this exercise is to lie flat on the back, then BREATHE OUT and bring one knee to the chest, BREATHE OUT again and bring the other knee to the chest. In other words, knock the air out of the stomach, naturally and not forcefully. The relax. And, still lying down on the back, do cycling movements with your legs, for five, ten, fifteen, twenty minutes progressively as the legs become less bloated, more normal and are able to take more exercise.
Another thing, and in fact the first thing to do, is to soak your legs in a bucket of warm-to-hot water with some Dettol or antibacterial liquid, and enjoy this for 20 minutes to half hour, till the veins open up and gradually after a few days the circulation may be restored to normal.
The third thing is to wear tights (or hosiery) from a chemists shop, although I imagine any tights will do for the time-being if those are not available. Wearing the tights will give pressure to maintain the good work done. Then, if you follow this routine, within about eight weeks, your legs will start to look and feel normal. Then use this routine with your own judgement, as and when necessary.
May friends, I wish you good health.
|Posted on July 6, 2013 at 4:30 AM||comments (2)|
What else? It is wisdom from Wal-Mart chairman to wear a silly hat to lighten things up. A light mood, some light music as well, lightens up the atmosphere and makes people optimistic and believe in the future, as everyone should. If people learn from the past, live in the present, and look forward to the future with hope and rosy expectations, why, isn't it possible that that is precisely what we can bring into being?
Bob Proctor in his book, You Were Born Rich, says that an acorn has a blueprint to grow into an oak tree. When the acorn seed is planted, it develops roots and drinks up water (rather like a businessman drinks up the necessary knowledge to grow his business as he goes along). Then, when it shows its head above ground, all the necessary energy that allows it to grow into an oak tree comes to it. That is the natural law of attraction.
Milk is plentiful in some parts of the world, but people don't seem to buy as much milk as they used to before, because it has gone up a few pence in price. Compared to most other things, this nutritious and delicious drink is still one of the cheapest drinks available, and so wholesome. I don't see why some supermarkets in England charge £1.50 for 4 pints when the corner shop charges £1.10 or £1.20 while other supermarkets charge a £1.00 - for the same size. Couldn't they all try for some medium price, like £1.20 or £1.25, then all farmers, suppliers and distributors can make a fair living? The Drink a Pinta Milk a Day poster campaign of the 1970s/80s is something I remember, and I was often encouraged to buy a pint and drink it with a straw at the corner shops. What a delight!
So, as humanity and all living creatures (who humanity looks after) were born rich, it would be a sign of faith to believe in a bright future and yes, wear a silly hat and sing a song, and get some straws out and drink some milk or cream.
Wish you a happy Saturday and weekend.
|Posted on July 5, 2013 at 4:54 AM||comments (32)|
It was fun listening to a talk by Tony Plummer, on the theories of the legendary American investor W.D. Gann, who is fabled to have made over $50 million dollars - a huge amount in the 1950s.
Gann theory, which Mr Plummer has interpreted in his new book The Law of Vibration, suggests that there are four cycles : Shock, which the world saw in 2008, followed by Absorption of Shock, which is supposed to have ended in 2012, followed by Integration, which began in 2012/13 and is likely to take us all in 2015.
This period of Integration is typified by what has been confirmed by the new Bank of England Guvnor Mark Carney as well as the ECB Chairman Mario Draghi, that the banks will continue with an accommodative stance with regards to stimulus, i.e. the punch bowl will not be removed any time soon.
It would seem that that will indeed become the theme of the coming months and years, at all levels, personal, political, economic, cultural, national and international, according to my reading of the situation. This is based on the rational trends that are in their infancy on the world stage.
Look at the example of Turkey, where an all-inclusive accommodative stance has stabilised the situation there.
Look at the situation in Egypt, where the military as guardians of the peoples' freedoms and economic well-being are supporting the new Interim President, who is a Chief Justice of many years standing and will follow policies which will benefit a wider democracy. Here again, an accommodative stance by all people, including the Muslim Brotherhood supporters of Dr Mursi, will win the day, to ensure the smooth running of this great cultural nation, so that trading and tourism continues, and continues to provide the bread and butter which all people naturally need.
In this period of Integration 2012/13 to 2015, an accommodative stance by central banks and political leaders will be the rational ways to continue worldwide economic Recovery, and God-willing peace prevails everywhere, which will then lead to a growing Prosperity.
Please let me have your comments as usual.