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Honest Information, Profitable Trading

Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

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DOW passes 16,000 - where next?

Posted on November 19, 2013 at 4:21 AM Comments comments (8)
Good morning, readers.  As the DOW passed 16,000 yesterday, I didn't write anything at that moment.  Regular readers of my column/blog will surely know that I was one of the few to suggest the DOW would go past 14,000 - then past 15,000 (the magic of 15,000) - and only recently 16,000.  I was of the view that the DOW could even do 17,000 this year, in the next five weeks or so.  A thousand points in say 25 working days, is it possible?  I shall wait to assess the markets further before I would commit to such a suggestion. 
 
In the meantime, I imagine a lot of punters will take some money off the table, and put into alternative markets.  India SENSEX has seen more inflows in last few days.
 
If not this year, then certainly I believe the DOW will hit 17,000 in next few months, on the proviso that the feel-good is assisted by the candy distribution, on which the panel will decide in the US this week.
 
That's all for now.
 
I wish joy and success to all my readers, in Netherlands, Fuzhou, California, India, Kenya, Tokyo, etc, etc.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
Caveat : Everyone trades entirely at their own risk, I am merely sharing my views.
 
 
(c) Copyright  19th November 2013, Durudarshan H. Dadlani.
 
 
 

Obamacare, some teething problems.

Posted on November 5, 2013 at 7:26 AM Comments comments (3)
It appears the Obamacare rollout has had teething problems, especially with the website interfacing.
 
Perhaps they should have stuck with their initial design, just to guage peoples interest without putting them off by asking comprehensive personal details.  It's like me asking you for your personal details before allowing you to read my blog.
 
Good news comes from Professor Gruber's analysis of the figures that would need or benefit from Obamacare, and provided provisions have been pencilled in for the expenditure, the launch should be quite successful, after the rationale is accepted by Joe Public. 
 
It seems that about 14 percent of the U.S. population would need Obamacare, the other 86 percent are adequately catered for. 
 
Of the 14 percent, Obamacare seeks to enlist the young working people, who don't have any kind of health care provision.  Once these people start to sign up in numbers, I presume the premium costs would start to come down.  It has to be attractive for people to sign up, not a cumbersome figure that people would be unwilling to pay and indeed may not see the immediate necessity to pay if they are currently in good health.  Everything being equal, most people would expect to continue to enjoy good health, and it seems a foolish waste of money to buy an insurance policy for health to most young people.  However, good health carries no guarantees into the future, and it is against this that people need to have cover, seeing how people's lives are sometimes marred by ill-health and their careers written off.  It is against this realistic look that young people need to consider taking up a policy to safeguard their future.
 
(In Britain it is straightforward enough.  Everyone is levied what is termed National Insurance, which is a fixed percentrage of one's income, and universally everyone gets medical cover under the National Health Service.  Some out of personal preference for quicker or better service decide to take out additional policies with private health insurance companies.  Side by side, the NHS and organisations such as the not-for-profit BUPA and Simply Health serve the population very well, in practical terms.)
 
If lot more people show an interest in what Obamacare offers, presumably the insurance premiums would start to come down and encourage more and more people to sign on, so it would actually deliver what would become affordable health care. 
 
As the issue is debated and considered, I guess it will gather acceptance, if not straight away then over a number of years.  Good health brings great benefits in enjoyment of life and work, creating a happy atmosphere and bringing prosperity to all, a welcome place.
 
Kind regards,
Durudarshan Dadlani
 
 

Hello Putian, Beijing, China....

Posted on October 23, 2013 at 3:29 PM Comments comments (9)
Recently I've had a lot of visitors to my blog and website from Putian as well as Beijing. 
 
I note the Indian Premier Dr Manmohan Singh has been to visit Beijing soon after his trip to Moscow, and
things are looking good for co-operation on peacefully observing each other's shared borders as well as increase in friendly relations and trade.
 
My personal hope is to become nominated by the Congress Party of India (UPA) as the Prime Ministerial candidate for May 2014.  Should my wish be fulfilled with approval of Rahul and Mrs Sonia Gandhi, I would be thrilled and would go to India straight away to start campaigning in earnest. 
 
I have a vision for India as a good neighbour to China, Russia, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Afghanistan and the whole region, as well as to unlock the huge potential that there obviously is for growth of infrastructure such as roads, bridges, dams, power generation, further irrigation, as well as housing, hospitals, schools, universities, and so on, which would utilise the resources and cater to the public, as well as use the skills and expertise internationally in building up this great nation.  I have lived in London the last 41 years, and see the n-th degree developments of this nation (United Kingdom) as something India could well try to aim for.  I imagine that with India's resources both of the peoples' savings and growing expectations of improvements in living standards, it would fit hand-in-glove. 
 
It is regrettable that there have been skirmishes on the international border with Pakistan, especially just after Dr Manmohan Singh-ji had constructive talks with Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif in New York recently. Mr Nawaz Sharif  has a great reputation as a man of his people and a positive personality, who would only wish the best for his people and continuation of peaceful co-existence with India.  The Indian PM has offered bilateral talks on this issue to find a resolution, and I sincerely hope common-sense and peace prevails once again.
 
I hope my readers will be able to make an accurate picture of what I would like to do, and I would welcome your comments on this matter.
 
In the meantime, I wish you a peaceful and happy evening.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 
 

Hello, New Zealand....silly song with a silly hat!

Posted on October 17, 2013 at 3:29 PM Comments comments (10)
Someone from New Zealand seems to remember the 'wear a silly hat and sing a song' article I blogged some time ago.  That, plus all others (over 1100 articles on my blog www.durudarshan.co.uk/blog) are there for your amusement. 
 
When I was much younger, some of my colleagues used to say that perhaps one day I should write a book and call it 'The Thoughts of Chairman Duru'.  My style must have been an amusing version of the great Chinese leader. 
 
My collection of work I have merely labelled for the meantime as 'From 2008 to Recovery'.  I started to put my words on Google soon after the collapse of Lehman Bros in October 2008, which had the effect of a whirlwind hitting the capital markets.  At that time, with subdued optimism and a fool's courage, I started to search for Worldwide Economic Recovery, May 2009, at Amazon.co.uk.  The computerised book search merely cancelled out the May 2009 and gave me a handful of economics books.  I found Nobel prizewinner but very modest hence great economist Dr. Edmund Phelps words inspiring.  I feel still that in his works we can uncover some of the dynamics of restructuring our economies and re-creating Recovery from the clean landscape after 2008. 
 
In the U.S., a lot of things seem to have been implemented, as well as in China, which has seen phenomenal growth in the last 30 years.  Looking at this giant nation which is still partly a command economy, with a hierarchy where commands are given and executed without loss of time, one marvels at the inspiration to build and modernise left them by their great leader Chairman Mao.  He was ruthless towards his enemies, but to his nation, he was a jovial comrade, leading them with emotional songs and poetry even when they worked hard on half empty stomachs.  China has done their Leader proud, and the tradition has continued with the Honourable Hu Jintao furthering friendship with Mr Obama, which will surely further blossom now with the Honourable Xi Jinping.
 
The world is open for trade and further development, with Britain and Mr Cameron today inviting participation from France and China in building a nuclear power plant here in England.  It is my belief that the lessons learnt from Fukushima as to how safe actually nuclear technology is, will be used to build a new generation of nuclear power plants throughout the world, which needs all alternative sources of power to build and continue forward. 
 
The worldwide economic Recovery will continue by the grace of God, with more trade developing between nations, more co-operation in investing and helping build the other nations, so that in peace and exchanging the resources each nation is blessed with, all can share what God has given, to the glory of our Father in Heaven, whose name is Allah to some, Bhagvan to others, who loves all humanity deeply and will surely help us all find solutions to the problems that confront us.  That I sincerely believe, and after the fiscal arrangements America has put in place last night, it seems for the meantime the music of Recovery will continue.
 
Putting on a silly hat and singing a song is a great idea of the Wal-Mart chairman.  Haeri Mai, that's what the sister at church says to us sometimes.  It means hello; to me, it sounds like my own Mum's name.
Today I hear the North and South parts of New Zealand have two new names in Mauri, the green island and the other one. Please do let me know when you write to me.  I'd appreciate your comments.
 
In the meantime, kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Mr Bernanke's penulimate tesimony before he leaves the Fed.

Posted on September 19, 2013 at 5:56 PM Comments comments (1)
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke made a cordial testimony yesterday, a month now before he is due to step down from office.  Essentially, he restated that the quantitative easing measures need to remain in place until the economic Recovery picks up further steam, but such measures have greatly benefitted the economic pickup and that the economy is strengthening thanks to such measures. 
 
There is nothing but appreciation for Ben Bernanke's handling of the Federal Reserve policies, and I admire this Statesman greatly.  His unique style has helped keep just that degree of suspense that is discretion, while at the same time sharing as much information as has been necessary to bolster stability.  The world stock markets got a boost after his testimony yesterday.
 
It remains to be seen how the Obama administration will fix the debt ceiling issue, which Treasury Secretary Jack Lew has indicated may fall due in October.  Will it be bi-partisan co-operation by the Republicans and the Democrats as before?  When everything is going so well, it is to be expected that they will push through the required votes to help Recovery stay on course, as would be both prudent and necessary.
 
Whoever is selected to be the next Fed Chairman, essentially the pro-growth policies are expected to stay in place. 
 
I have a hunch that the Dow Jones Industrial Index will either shoot for 17000 by the end of the year, or head up for 16000.  What the mind of man can conceive and believe, it can achieve.  I sense it will be possible.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Notes from the LDS chapel, Ilford.

Posted on September 8, 2013 at 3:30 PM Comments comments (5)
On this glorious autumnal Sunday morning, Brother Jeremy Boyden opened the Sacrament Meeting, with Bishop Onaolapo presiding.
 
The opening Innvocation was by Sister Munden, followed by some words from President Akkune's family.
 
First of all, their son Ike :  My brother does not like to share, but he is still my brother.  I love my family.  I love my father, because he keeps us all together.
 
Sister Akkune :  I am aware that not every household has a Priesthood Holder in the house.
God has assigned to the Priesthood Holder the duty of fellowship, for the benefit of the entire human family, to build up and uplift.
 
I am happy and lucky to have a Priesthood Holder in the house, so how should I support him?  I have to be patient and willing to support him, when he has to go to his Home Teaching meetings.  I have been fortunate to always have a Priesthood Holder in my house.  My Father instilled in me a testimony that I received at 13, and it has always been with me ever since.
 
President Akkunne (A-Ku-nay) : The family is central to God's plan of salvation for His creation.
Parents have a sacred duty to bring up children.  The Lord is not pleased when children quarrel.
 
President Hinckley had a simple 4 point plan :
1) Pray
2) Study
3) Pay tithe
4) Attend the church meetings.
 
When we pay the Tithe, there is a blessing upon our families.
Then Brother Chima (as President Akkune is also known) related the very touching story of how after
21 years of marriage he one day took out another woman on a dinner date, the lady in question being his beloved Mother.  She had been a widow for 19 years, and was so thrilled to go out for dinner with her son.  "Son" she wrote to him.  "You don't know what it has meant to me going out on this dinner date with you.  You are a wonderful son, and I love you very dearly." 
Sadly, a few days later, Chima's Mother died, but he has the glorious memory of how happy she felt with his show of respect and affection for her. 
 
The Sacrament was followed by Bible Class, in which the topic of Priesthood and fellowship continued.
 
Later this afternoon, we had the blessed Baptism of Benjamin, son of Nana and Sister Aggrey.  This was celebrated with immersion of Benjamin in the water, singing of hymns and invocations of blessings.
There was a feast, with several varieties of rice, dumplings, salads, fish, meat and a variety of drinks.
This glorious autumnal day augers well for the love and respect people have for one another.  A great day for this gathering of kindred spirits, may blessings be upon all.
 
Amen.
(written by Duru-darshan,
Melchizedek Priest, LDS Ilford)
 
 
 

Bank of England's forward guidance

Posted on August 29, 2013 at 4:52 AM Comments comments (4)
The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has reassured the markets that a further stimulus would be available if market conditions dictate it.  In the meantime, he has restated what he mentioned when he took over the reigns a month and a half ago, namely :
 
 That the record low interest rate, currently 0.5 percent, would be maintained until such time as the unemployment figure falls to 7 percent. 
 
Most market forecasters believe this indicates a period of about three years, according to the BBC.
 
So industry and enterprise can assume an atmosphere of prevailing calm and steady investment and growth over the coming three years in the United Kingdom, perhaps even rescue and turnaround of sectors which may be in the doldrums at the moment.  The forward moves will probably be in construction, as demand for housing in Britain continues to grow.  Currently there are government incentives for new-built houses; new year, starting April-May 2014, there would be help available for those purchasing older houses.  The government is trying to satisfy the appetite for home ownership, at the same time welcoming qualified people from abroad who see Britain as a safe and pleasant land to live in.  More demands will arise in the health (probably private now) and schools sector, and accordingly new buildings will need to go up. 
 
So long as banks continue to lend (from the stimulus portfolio of about £375 Billions already issued) there should be little trouble in seeing growth and opportunities in the U.K. for the foreseeable future. It is for entrepreneurs and business owners to take up courage and ask for working capital, and set about their work with vim and vigour.  The time has never been better.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan
 
 
 
 

Inspiration from the LDS Church, Ilford

Posted on August 25, 2013 at 2:03 PM Comments comments (14)
I was glad to see Terry at the church today.  He has been to the hospital.  Last time he said he was going for a cancer operation.  Today he looked fine.
 
Eleven-year old Brother Joseph Omuroyi was asked to give a talk on Prayer.  He had just been asked this morning, so he gave an impromptu speech : "How can we talk to our Heavenly Father?  Prayer is the basic thing we do, when we get home and at the end of the day."  I am sure we all pray for safety for all our loved ones.  "I know my Father loves me.  Without prayer I wouldn't feel that protection".  
 
Today, we were joined by four new missionaries.  Sister Stoja is from Tirana, Albania.  She stood at the pilpit and made her introductory speech : "I know this Church is true.  I know the Book of Mormon is true.  It is a blessing for me to be here.  I love you."
 
This is a great, democratic aspect about the Church of Latter-Day Saints, all members are allowed, indeed encouraged, to stand at the pulpit and give their testimonies. 
 
Brother Judy (all missionaries are normally addressed by their surnames, unless they choose to tell us their first names) comes from Utah.  He says "When I was little, I didn't like the rules.  But when I came to this Church, I learned that the two great commandments were these: That we should love God our Lord with all our hearts, and all our souls, and all our minds.  The 2nd that we should love our neighbours as we love ourselves.  If we obey these two rules, and have love in our hearts, the other commandments become automatically understood by us."  My sentiments precisely.
 
President Saltzman's daughters are visiting from Utah.  "I feel privileged for the chance to address you. We are all capable of receiving revelations.  The first revelation is that we all have a physical as well as a spiritual identity."  Then he gave the analogy of children learning to ride a bicycle. " We are all capable of receiving revelations.  We have to be prepared to do what the Lord tells us (like the subconscious, me thinks)  If we are not sincere in following through, He will not tell us. 
He is sometimes going to Let Go as we try to ride the bicycle."
 
Later, in the Gospel study class, we all sing Happy Birthday to Sister Grace Patterson, who is here all the way from New Zealand.  It's her 21st.  Happy Birthday, Grace!
 
Sister Kathy Su, who was from Singapore, has gone somewhere else.  Sister Kathy, you were missed.  Also missed Elder Botcha from Andhra Pradesh.
 
I am very impressed by the young missionaries, who have travelled from far and wide, to come and spread the message of our Saviour and Redeemer, whose example of Divine love and understanding has brought all of us together.
 
In His name, I ask for blessings upon us all.
Amen.
(Written by Duru-darshan
Melchizedek Priest, LDS Ilford)
 

Indian Rupee fall overdone

Posted on August 22, 2013 at 8:21 AM Comments comments (6)
You know, there was a time when Twelve and a half Indian Rupees exchanged for a U.S. Dollar.
Today, the rate is 65 Rupees to the Dollar.  Hardly a month ago, it was 55 Rupees.
For a country with U.S.$277 Billion in reserves, and a debt to GDP ratio of about 27 percent, this is
clearly selling the Indian Rupee too cheap. 
What sort of policies have been in place that the currency has virtually fallen 400 percent against the greenback, in a period of less than two decades, when the growth in India has been quite healthy while the mature economies have structurally slowed down? 
What is the purpose of encouraging foreign inflows of capital which periodically take flight and cause a panic in the markets? 
Of course, with the Rupee at current levels, most overseas investors see this as a golden opportunity to invest in India.  And the Finance Minister, Mr P. Chidambaram, has confirmed that inflows have been very healthy, and as it is absorbed into the system, a healthy picture will emerge.  Growth for the 2nd half of this year is expected to be much improved, with exports increasing month on month.
Can't blame anyone for snapping up quality Indian goods at ridiculous prices, can you?
 
The Reserve Bank of India's repo rate of 7-1/2 percent is really responsible for the slight slowdown that Indian industry and consumerism have seen over the last year and a half.  When the picture is so healthy, why should the RBI offer such a high rate to attract overseas investment?  When compared to the mature economies, the differential is more than 5 percent and as much as Seven and a quarter percent.  Is anyone listening?  What is the logic of it?  When India has enough for good growth, why does she need foreign inflows which periodically make the currency bleed?
 
The best announcement is that the RBI will not take any policy measures to try and curb the current and temporary fall of the Rupee to the absurd level. 
 
On 5th September, the new Governor of the RBI will assume his office, and both Corporate India and the public wait with hope to see what path he follows to restore robust growth and much need relief for consumers in India.  More people wish to buy houses and cars, take out loans for education and travel.  India needs must add to the world economic growth story, and an orderly drop in the repo rate would prove the tonic.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

"Obedience"

Posted on August 17, 2013 at 5:35 PM Comments comments (1)
Brothers and Sisters, I have been asked to give a brief talk on the subject of Obedience. 
 
This is a subject which is very relevant, for late in life, I have found that it gives joy to parents to find their offspring are obedient.  By this I imply that children listen to parents' guidance, and do what would find approval in the parents' hearts and minds.  And so it must be with our Heavenly Father.  And what can be more joyful than to know that we do according to God's wishes, which are known to each one of us according to the dictates of our nature and our conscience.  Just as when we are mature and realize that it makes our parents happy if we do that which they would approve, that we are dutiful and obedient children, similarly, I realise that our God in Heaven looks upon with pleasure when we do what he would have us do.
 
There are rich rewards as fruits of obedience, in the form of good health, good life, good guidance, good nature.  To see what our elders have found true, I read President Lorenzo Snow saying that  "ever feeling grateful for our earthly being, and more especially for the Spirit of God we have received through obedience to the Gospel."  That is really a message of good faith, that we receive the Spirit of God in our hearts when we are obedient.  That is such a precious gift.
 
For such approval and such guidance, the method of following the Gospel is quite straightforward.  When I was 13, the love of Christ found a place in my heart, and somehow automatically I have most of my life followed the gospel, without consciously thinking about it.
 
When Jesus was on Earth, a lawyer asked Him "Master, what is the great commandment in the law?"
 
Our Saviour said unto him : "Thou shalt love the Lord thy God with all thy heart, and all thy soul, and all thy mind."
 
That impressed me greatly at age 13, and it has been a great comfort and delight to me, in good times as well as  when I have faced difficulties in life.
 
And the second commandment, "Love thy neighbour as thyself" is a great promoter of understanding of our fellow human beings.  If I am fair to myself, I cannot be mean towards my neighbour if he says a few nasty things about me, after all, unless I don't love myself and would not excuse any shortcomings on my part.  Before I developed this realization, I always took on faith what our Saviour said : "Love thine enemy".  I realized that this is a great formula to save our hearts from burningwith hatred towards anyone who has wronged us.  We don't call Christ our Saviour for nothing.
 
Those who follow these two great commandments are probably likely to love themselves so much and have such a pleasant life, they are likely to follow the rest of the ten commandments even if they were not aware of them.  That I do believe. 
When one is absorbed in living a joyful life in the assurance of receiving the Spirit of God in one's heart here on earth, and today, not some date in the future, then one  simply cannot do ill or fall prey to temptations.  I simply would not wish to have God disapprove of any of my actions, I have such love and respect for our Heavenly Father. 
 
I share my testimony and ask for God's blessings for continued guidance in the name of Jesus, our teacher and Saviour.
 
Amen.
 
(written by Duru-darshan
Melchizedek Priest, LDS Ilford)