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Honest Information, Profitable Trading

Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

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Where next for the worldwide economic Recovery?

Posted on November 26, 2013 at 8:04 AM Comments comments ()

DOW passes 16,000 - where next?

Posted on November 19, 2013 at 4:21 AM Comments comments ()
Good morning, readers.  As the DOW passed 16,000 yesterday, I didn't write anything at that moment.  Regular readers of my column/blog will surely know that I was one of the few to suggest the DOW would go past 14,000 - then past 15,000 (the magic of 15,000) - and only recently 16,000.  I was of the view that the DOW could even do 17,000 this year, in the next five weeks or so.  A thousand points in say 25 working days, is it possible?  I shall wait to assess the markets further before I would commit to such a suggestion. 
 
In the meantime, I imagine a lot of punters will take some money off the table, and put into alternative markets.  India SENSEX has seen more inflows in last few days.
 
If not this year, then certainly I believe the DOW will hit 17,000 in next few months, on the proviso that the feel-good is assisted by the candy distribution, on which the panel will decide in the US this week.
 
That's all for now.
 
I wish joy and success to all my readers, in Netherlands, Fuzhou, California, India, Kenya, Tokyo, etc, etc.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
Caveat : Everyone trades entirely at their own risk, I am merely sharing my views.
 
 
(c) Copyright  19th November 2013, Durudarshan H. Dadlani.
 
 
 

Remembrance Day at the LDS, Ilford

Posted on November 10, 2013 at 11:40 AM Comments comments ()
Remembrance Day at the Ilford chapel of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints was marked by the Bishop and congregation paying respects to the memories of the heroes and heroines who gave their lives in the quest for freedom from tyranny and injustice. 
 
How great a freedom we enjoy today as citizens of England is all due to the heroes and heroines who laid down their lives, as well as those valiant men and women who helped negotiate peace and brought forward this day into being.
 
Brother Jeremy Boyden : "We remember all those who made the ultimate sacrifice, like our Saviour, and we mark this day when peace was first agreed between all nations, on 11th November 1918".
 
The President's wife Sister Saltzman read a poem about Flanders Fields.
 
The Bishop's son, Brother Michael Onaolapo Jnr : "Greater love hath no man then He who gave up His own life so that others may live."
 
Sister Shannon Pickering, who was baptised in the Ilford ward two weeks ago, spoke a few words about the loving atmosphere that prevails in this land, thanks to people like her gransparents who did their bit during the war.
 
Sister Joanne Boyden read a famous poem, starting The glory shines upon my tears....She read the bit about hopes and expectations and stars and then became very emotional.  (I asked her later; she explained that her Mother lost two brothers in the war). (For the Fallen, Robert Laurence Binyon).
 
Brother Michael Lighten paid tribute to the great example of Captain Noel Godfrey Chavasse, recounting events in the Captain's life  in the Royal Army Medical Corp, who had to combine civilian with military duties at the front, where he saw within a few hours 189 casualties out of 600.  Captain Chavasse worked behind enemy lines for four hours, just 500 yards to safety.    On another occasion just 25 yards from enemy trenches. Altogether, Captain Chavasse saved the lives of approximately 20,000 men.
On another occasion, he worked with protection against an attack of mustard gas.
     Noel picked up his torch, and rose up in his time, working against impossible conditions of mud, blood and water.  Captain Chavasse was decoated with a rare second Victoria Cross.  Such men are rare indeed, and we all recall his courage with awe and celebration.
 
"For their tomorrows, we give our today"  John Maxwell Edmonds.  That was the spirit of the unknown solider, great soul who's memory we salute today.
 
We stood and paid our respects to the memories of the men and women who have won the freedoms that have greatly contributed to the enjoyment of peace and peaceful life that England enjoys today.
 
Bishop Onaolapo made these closing remarks : "We are here because of the sacrifices the soldiers, male and female, have made for us.  That is why the great atmosphere of stability and safety, friendliness and love prevails in this nation.  I am sure this country will go from strength to strength because of that, and I am proud to be a citizen of this great country of ours."
 
I believe this sums up the congregations sentiments on this day, when we salute those whose lives were lost, as well as those who brought about peace.
 
May God's blessings be upon all.
 
Amen
(written by Duru-darshan
Melchizedek Priest,
LDS Ilford ward)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

www.durudarshan.co.uk/blog

Posted on November 9, 2013 at 6:12 AM Comments comments ()
My thanks to the staff at these Search Engines for listing and indexing my website, and to Vistaprint for so beautifully hosting my website over last 28 months.  It has built from strength to strength, drawing many visitors each day. Thanks to all :
                        Stumbleupon
                        Google (the multi-trillion dollar brain)
                        Twitter  (tweet tweet to you)
                        LinkedIn (professional and so well defined)
                        j.mp
                        Yahoo (book readers love you)
                        Bing (looks like people like spy thrillers)
                        and, just for good measure, a few porno sites, harmless fun is okay I'd say.
 
My blogs being read overnight are as follows :
  -  The ECB's 25 basispoint cut
  -  Stephanie Ruhle, CNBC interviewer 
         (She's actually an anchor for Bloomberg, working in New York)
  -  This is time for buyers to support Bangladesh factories
          (American companies have done so, may blessings be unto them)
  -  Thomas Sugrue's review of The Last Great Prophet
  -  The Bank of America share price.
 
----------------------------------------------LIZZIE--------------------------------------------------------------
 
Yesterday I heard the news that China has experienced good growth and far from a hard-landing which people feared it is experiencing very sound growth, with PMI figures up and increasing. 
 
One commentator has stated that China has several trillion dollars of reserves for investment, so I imagine the worldwide boom can continue.  Today I heard that 80 percent of visas being taken for visits to Portugal are for Chinese property investors.  This way, all economies with an open-door policy to encouraging property ownership and immigration would benefit from the Chinese wherewithal to sustain growth and Recovery. 
 
If the Chinese sources are suggesting U.S. is looking for $561 Billion for next six months, it augers well for the U.S. that the jobs numbers were pretty good and growth potential is inherent in America, and it would be very probable that China would support such borrowings and support, as they have done in the recent past. 
 
The luxury sector may start to rebound in China, who continue to buy Rolls Royce cars and jets as never before, and with the refocus on domestic consumption and increasing exports from China, it is apparent that the Honourable Xi Jinping is inspiring policies that will help the Chinese people achieve higher standards of living. 
 
For stability and optimism into the near future, what more could the world wish for?
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

The ECB's 25 basis point cut

Posted on November 8, 2013 at 3:42 AM Comments comments ()
The announcement of the 0.25 percent cut in the European Central Bank's benchmark rate is an indication that the economic Recovery still needs a great stimulus, and this was EU's way of getting it.
 
Only the day before I read that Adecco, the temporary staff specialists, were seeing increased signs of hiring of staff, and European economies are showing a sign of strengthening Recovery.  It seems the services sector is growing, which is a good sign.  As more people are out and about and travel, they need to sit down and eat. 
 
The U.S. "shutdown" which at one point affected between 700,000 and 800,000 workers, who were told not to turn up for work and others who were furloughed  i.e. had their hours reduced to only attend at peak-demand times - that "shutdown" saw reduced demand in travelling and catering across the pond.  Here in London I have noticed a few cafes and restaurants mostly used by tourists close.  And that was the effect of just a lull in a few weeks of trading.
 
At the moment, although there is a positive buzz, the uncertainity of the debt ceiling raise pending for 7th February is bound to weigh down on sentiment.  It seems Senator Paul has indicated that Dr Janet Yellen will see confirmation of her nomination to the Federal Reserve's chairmanship, and the administration of the spigot can continue.
 
Feelings on this question are mixed, as the Chinese sources suggest that the U.S. is seeking about $561 Billion over the next six months.  This would equate to roughly $93.5 Billion a month.  That definitely suggests a phase of monetary expansion bigger than before, as the quantitative easing was running at some $85 Billion a month, cut by 1/12th with the Sequestration.  If the stimulus could be so increased,
then that would definitely improve the picture of Recovery for next year.  But in terms of reality, perhaps the $85 Billion a month will need to be restored, as suggested by Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew.  No one liked the Sequestration, with scholars being sent home due to non provision of a mid day meal, not to mention problems with funding necessary upgrades to fleets.
 
It is good news that housing in the U.S. registered positive gains in 44 States last month, and when a stable situation arrives after the debt ceiling issue is resolved, better gains may be expected. 
 
In the meantime, a stable and happy scenario is expected up to Christmas and New Year worldwide.
Chinese PMI data suggests a growing strength in the domestic re-focus as well as exporting sectors.
 
The United Kingdom is registering positive growth in housing numbers and GDP growth, greatly helped by the introduction of the Help to Buy scheme.  Hopefully speculators and buy-to-let landlords are not assisted so much that the property market may become a bubble, causing soaring rents, homelessness and reliance on the social welfare system. 
 
A mixed picture of optimism, with the Twitter IPO yesterday providing some amusement.  The market seems to manufacture some euphoria, with the underwriters making good profits.
 
That's it for now.  Very soon I'm off to the World Money Show, at the Queen Elizabeth Conference Centre not far from Big Ben.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Obamacare, some teething problems.

Posted on November 5, 2013 at 7:26 AM Comments comments ()
It appears the Obamacare rollout has had teething problems, especially with the website interfacing.
 
Perhaps they should have stuck with their initial design, just to guage peoples interest without putting them off by asking comprehensive personal details.  It's like me asking you for your personal details before allowing you to read my blog.
 
Good news comes from Professor Gruber's analysis of the figures that would need or benefit from Obamacare, and provided provisions have been pencilled in for the expenditure, the launch should be quite successful, after the rationale is accepted by Joe Public. 
 
It seems that about 14 percent of the U.S. population would need Obamacare, the other 86 percent are adequately catered for. 
 
Of the 14 percent, Obamacare seeks to enlist the young working people, who don't have any kind of health care provision.  Once these people start to sign up in numbers, I presume the premium costs would start to come down.  It has to be attractive for people to sign up, not a cumbersome figure that people would be unwilling to pay and indeed may not see the immediate necessity to pay if they are currently in good health.  Everything being equal, most people would expect to continue to enjoy good health, and it seems a foolish waste of money to buy an insurance policy for health to most young people.  However, good health carries no guarantees into the future, and it is against this that people need to have cover, seeing how people's lives are sometimes marred by ill-health and their careers written off.  It is against this realistic look that young people need to consider taking up a policy to safeguard their future.
 
(In Britain it is straightforward enough.  Everyone is levied what is termed National Insurance, which is a fixed percentrage of one's income, and universally everyone gets medical cover under the National Health Service.  Some out of personal preference for quicker or better service decide to take out additional policies with private health insurance companies.  Side by side, the NHS and organisations such as the not-for-profit BUPA and Simply Health serve the population very well, in practical terms.)
 
If lot more people show an interest in what Obamacare offers, presumably the insurance premiums would start to come down and encourage more and more people to sign on, so it would actually deliver what would become affordable health care. 
 
As the issue is debated and considered, I guess it will gather acceptance, if not straight away then over a number of years.  Good health brings great benefits in enjoyment of life and work, creating a happy atmosphere and bringing prosperity to all, a welcome place.
 
Kind regards,
Durudarshan Dadlani
 
 

How is the economic Recovery likely to continue?

Posted on October 28, 2013 at 8:34 AM Comments comments ()
It has taken all of five years for the world economies to be restored to semblance of normality from the dark days of 2008.
 
Remember those days when the interest rates were quite high in the advanced economies, anything from 4 to 7 percent - and that for the benchmark European Central Bank, Federal Reserve and Bank of England rate. 
 
The crisis created by the collapse of Lehmann Bros sent shockwaves throughout the financial system worldwide, with stockmarkets tumbling, loss of confidence in trade, fall in house prices, and a mood of pessimism gripped the world. 
 
At the vortex of the crisis, when Oil price reached $147 per barrel, according to OPEC AND European Union figures, about $250 billion additional bills were imposed on the European Union's oil expenditure, and what a terrible crisis it created, making transportation and manufacturing unviable in many countries, e.g. Portugal, Spain, Greece, the extra drain sucking the life-force out of the system. 
At the peak of the crisis, people who were earlier working in the textile industry were suddenly without work, and wondering how they would find their cod-and-chips.  Enterprising young people and old were trying their hand at the e-commerce economy, and finding lot of work but little revenue.  The Prime Minister of a sovereign nation which was so prosperous not so long ago was visiting the heads of state of various nations, asking for help.  The social security systems were severally stretched, the tax revenues not corresponding to the new outflows.  The interest on the bonds became quite high, to attract investors.  Talented people from universities were not able to find opportunities to make a living. 
Demand on housing was as high as ever, but people didn't have money to rent, nor were banks willing to extend mortgages.  Indeed, banks and loan corporations were suddenly unviable, after the property price plunge and bankruptcies of many individuals. 
 
Today, comparatively, there has been a return of confidence.  Things are getting better.  Spain, Portugal and Greece have seen their bonds become more attractive to international investors.
But the worst is hardly behind us, yet the oil price remains so high.  The pending closure of the Grangemouth Refinery is an indicator of the havoc the oil price plays with the balance sheet of such businesses.  A business that was viable up until recently today stands in need of £300 million, with that it would support 800 jobs until trade is more favourable.  This may be a microcosmic illustration of what could be in store for the OPEC nations, unless they decide to reduce the oil price to a level that is affordable to the rest of the world, and would give the OPEC nations an on-going stable income on a long-term basis into the future, and allow the world to breathe, and help sustain Recovery. 
 
It took two-and-a-half years after the high oil price knocked the economies for six for a return to some kind of normal business activity.  Common sense tells me that the high price today will probably hamper growth for about a year-and-a-half, and it is already restricting growth and causing hardships in many places, e.g. Yemn, Kenya, India, and almost all the nations outside the G20. 
I WOULD RESPECTFULLY SUGGEST THAT THE OIL PRICE NEEDS TO BE BELOW $85  A BARREL.
 
That would help the hard-pressed developing nations meet their bills from their depleted reserves or devalued currencies, and enabling continuation of trade with the U.S., China, European Union, Israel and indeed OPEC, which would create a dynamic of mutual co-operation and support that may help all nations thrive and develop all their potential.  That is the missing piece of the jigsaw in the picture of a continuation of the worldwide economic Recovery. 
 
All the listening hearts of the world know what I am saying, and those who sit in positions of influence will do what is necessary, for that I pray.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

Andhra Pradesh and Odisha cyclones

Posted on October 26, 2013 at 12:27 PM Comments comments ()
It seems a frequent occurrence, the coming of typhoons and cyclones that seem to hit the Eastern board of India every year, often hitting Odisha the hardest, together with Andhra Pradesh as well as Bengal.
 
This October, cyclone Phailin landed at Gopalpur in Odisha with a core speed of 200 Kilometres per hour, reducing to matchsticks the flimsy dwellings in the low-lying areas, flooding vast majority of farmland and dwellings.  Fallen trees and power lines added to the problems in travelling. Thanfully early warming of the oncoming SuperCyclone enabled the local municipal authorities put into action evacuation plans, together with assistance from the Army and Navy, which were on standby, and so only a tiny number of people lost their lives this time, compared to the 10,000 last time.
 
Nearly a million people had been evacuated, with a timely and well-ordinated effort by the authorities.  Social media must have helped, emphasising the dangers of flooding and the ferocity of the winds, and, most important, how much time they had to get out of harm's way.  Villagers became convinced of the seriousness and left for the safety of higher areas and strong public dwellings, travelling at the last minute by buses laid on by the local councils.  Thankfully, so many people saved their lives by not ignoring the messages. 
 
About 100,000 people were similarly affected in Andhra Pradesh also.
 
Odisha Chief Minister has requested the government in Delhi to provide approximately a billion pounds over and above the 572 million pounds which would be available in the state disaster response fund, such has been the devastation left by Cyclone Phailin. 
 
The government and local authorities are stretched trying to provide food, shelter and rehabilitation for the million plus people affected in the last fortnight.
 
As if that was not bad enough, another cyclone has hit the same region today, killing 29 and leaving another 85,000 marooned.  The government and the local communities have a huge task of rebuilding and rehabilitating nearly 1.3 million people in Eastern states, some of the poorest and least developed in India.  It would be a great blessing for the people if this encourages the construction of alternative housing in such areas. 
 
In the meantime, again I pray for the safety and well-being of the people of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh and Bengal.
 
Respectfully Invoking our Saviour's prayer I intone :"Winds, be thee still".
 
May God's love and care be with the people there.
 
Amen
(written by Duru-darshan
Melchizedek priest at Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints, Ilford)
 
Good news heard today, 9th November 2013.
Indian Prime Minister has announced allocation of funds of 1,000 Crores each for Odisha and Andhra Pradesh.  (approx. 1 Billion Pounds each).
 
 
 
 
 
 
  

Narayani Namastute!

Posted on October 19, 2013 at 12:21 PM Comments comments ()
When I get so many readers from Kansas City to my blog, I think Narayani Namastute! Narayani Namastute!  Yes, on the auspicious  day of Full Moon, as it was yesterday, and with the conjunction of the debt ceiling raise decision in the U.S., I was wondering what the Kansas City Fed Chairman Narayanan Kocharlakota was thinking.  I haven't read anything in the press, but he is normally an advocate of quantitative easing with deliberate measure.  In this regard, again, it is early days to see a ballpark figure of the debt ceiling raise, and for the 4 months of January 15th, Congress has announced that the U.S. government will be fully funded.  Their Comptroller is likely to know what that means, and how much money will continue to flow into the system until then. 
 
In the meantime, it must be a great relief that the shutdown has been lifted.  Never again, I can hear everyone saying.  People have lost income and business, tourists have suffered not being able to visit monuments and museums they may have especially travelled over the States to visit.  The short but very long 14 days have cost the U.S. dear, to the tune of some $24 Billion in lost revenue and productivity.  The lesson is clear, such a shutdown over an extended period would cause the economy to slow down, and the economy to lose something on the GDP measure.  It is like an economy in good shape being told to trim down.  Never again, I hope.
 
As to the ballpark figure, my suggestion is $1.32 Trillion over 20 months, which works out at $66 Billion per month.  After payment of some $60 Billion per month for the social security net, that leaves $6 Billion per month for enterprise and job creation.  Jobs ranging in pay from $20 or $30,000 per annum to $250,000 per annum could be created, perhaps 300,000 or 400,000 per month.  And he presto! within six months the U.S. would have whizzed on from Recovery to Prosperity. 
 
But that's just a ballpark figure I am suggesting.  At current Stimulus of $85 Billion per month, maybe it could be different.  In view of the regime of Abenomics in Japan and their Stimulus of $85 Billion per month, the per capita differential is in Japan's favour.  It is a theme to be explored over the coming days. 
 
I am glad to note the global economic order has been stabilised after the agreement in the U.S. on the debt ceiling raise.  As they all enjoy four months of relative calm and stability until 15th January and then to 7th February, I trust they will have this in mind and not give everyone, including themselves, a tough time. 
 
Certainly, the costings and implementation of Obamacare is something they can review and see how technically it would be best implemented.  The beginnings of the British NHS took about 40 years in gestation, before it received the blessing as a Royal Charter in 1947 under the kind King George.  Obamacare is by comparison in its infancy, and needs to be tweaked and explored before this very sound principle can bring benefits to the citizens and the nation.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 

Hello, New Zealand....silly song with a silly hat!

Posted on October 17, 2013 at 3:29 PM Comments comments ()
Someone from New Zealand seems to remember the 'wear a silly hat and sing a song' article I blogged some time ago.  That, plus all others (over 1100 articles on my blog www.durudarshan.co.uk/blog) are there for your amusement. 
 
When I was much younger, some of my colleagues used to say that perhaps one day I should write a book and call it 'The Thoughts of Chairman Duru'.  My style must have been an amusing version of the great Chinese leader. 
 
My collection of work I have merely labelled for the meantime as 'From 2008 to Recovery'.  I started to put my words on Google soon after the collapse of Lehman Bros in October 2008, which had the effect of a whirlwind hitting the capital markets.  At that time, with subdued optimism and a fool's courage, I started to search for Worldwide Economic Recovery, May 2009, at Amazon.co.uk.  The computerised book search merely cancelled out the May 2009 and gave me a handful of economics books.  I found Nobel prizewinner but very modest hence great economist Dr. Edmund Phelps words inspiring.  I feel still that in his works we can uncover some of the dynamics of restructuring our economies and re-creating Recovery from the clean landscape after 2008. 
 
In the U.S., a lot of things seem to have been implemented, as well as in China, which has seen phenomenal growth in the last 30 years.  Looking at this giant nation which is still partly a command economy, with a hierarchy where commands are given and executed without loss of time, one marvels at the inspiration to build and modernise left them by their great leader Chairman Mao.  He was ruthless towards his enemies, but to his nation, he was a jovial comrade, leading them with emotional songs and poetry even when they worked hard on half empty stomachs.  China has done their Leader proud, and the tradition has continued with the Honourable Hu Jintao furthering friendship with Mr Obama, which will surely further blossom now with the Honourable Xi Jinping.
 
The world is open for trade and further development, with Britain and Mr Cameron today inviting participation from France and China in building a nuclear power plant here in England.  It is my belief that the lessons learnt from Fukushima as to how safe actually nuclear technology is, will be used to build a new generation of nuclear power plants throughout the world, which needs all alternative sources of power to build and continue forward. 
 
The worldwide economic Recovery will continue by the grace of God, with more trade developing between nations, more co-operation in investing and helping build the other nations, so that in peace and exchanging the resources each nation is blessed with, all can share what God has given, to the glory of our Father in Heaven, whose name is Allah to some, Bhagvan to others, who loves all humanity deeply and will surely help us all find solutions to the problems that confront us.  That I sincerely believe, and after the fiscal arrangements America has put in place last night, it seems for the meantime the music of Recovery will continue.
 
Putting on a silly hat and singing a song is a great idea of the Wal-Mart chairman.  Haeri Mai, that's what the sister at church says to us sometimes.  It means hello; to me, it sounds like my own Mum's name.
Today I hear the North and South parts of New Zealand have two new names in Mauri, the green island and the other one. Please do let me know when you write to me.  I'd appreciate your comments.
 
In the meantime, kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

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