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|Posted on February 6, 2015 at 7:09 AM||comments ()|
Two Thousand and Fifteen may become a very good year, for most nations.
In China, where they recently cut rates and introduced a Trillion Dollar stimulus, the dynamics of internal growth and development as well as for the export markets suggests robust growth. The Honourable Xi Jinping is quoted as saying that China will achieve a new standard in progress. His words are welcome, and should give heart to anyone who may be fearing a slowdown in China. The actual production and shipments overseas ( I hear huge ship loads arriving in Britain, and for the first time in many years hear the trains ferry the goods across in the middle of the night in a huge procession) testify to that.
In the U.S., the start of Prosperity which I had foreseen for November 2014 seems to have materialised, and heatmaps of happiness continue to grow for the people there, with increasing numbers of auto purchases, mortgages taken out on single family units, more people in work both seasonal and permanent, lower Oil prices (although that is a mixed blessing), and good weather, apart from the recent snow.
I see the DOW going upto 18,500* by June this year, although the prospects for 2016 may be mild, with perhaps the saving grace of Hillary Clinton becoming elected as the President. Sentator Jeb Bush is a strong candidate, but I detect the dynamics at play will ensure the Democrats will again have tenure of the highest position in the land.
*I am just expressing my opinion, based on the logics of what I perceive. People should speculate at their own risk.
The Oil producing nations will have to work in co-operation and ensure a stable oil price, otherwise their dollar-denominated revenues will not meet the cost of their imports, and may lead to ques outside empty supermarkets, waiting to buy stocks (g00ds) which are being rationed, as in Venezuela.
It makes me cringe in shock to see the situation in Ukraine, where the rebels loyal to the Soviet leadership are wrecking havoc and creating ghost towns, where life seems at 1950s levels. Mr Putin can be generous and call these people off. He must extricate himself from this very messy situation. It is doing no one any good. Once peace is restored in this region, hopefully the Rouble will recover, and help people in Russia share the common prosperity that is developing worldwide. Oil seems to be bouncing around levels which may be optimum, and which may prove good for everybody, including the newly formed shale and fracking operators. Mr Putin has to apply the generosity principle, and help the kindred folks in Ukraine. That conflict is just so unnecessary, it is just like bullying people who at one time Mr Putin was willing to big a brotherly hug. I just don't believe it.
Under Pradhanmantri Shree Modiji, India is on track for the fastest growth since Independence, although the recent industrial productions figures at 2.6 percent seem so faint. Provided the RBI decide to enjoin the procession of Recovery and lower the benchmark repo rate, things should improve. There is a great natural appetite for investment into India, with the right atmosphere. Creating a major air hub to compete with what exists in the Arab Emirates may be a good raising of the bar, but let us all wait and see what will actually materialise. But in the meantime, the commencement of building a 100 new cities seems a great vision, and Modiji has my congratulations. I hope his BJP policymakers and bureaucrats will ensure implementation and fulfilment of such measures.
The caution that I mentioned....while times are good, save a little for the future, and build some reserves for the second half of 2016, when it will all come in handy.
May the Lord's blessings be upon all.
Durudarshan H. Dadlani
|Posted on January 25, 2015 at 5:08 PM||comments ()|
The Trillion Euro stimulus announced this afternoon by ECB President Mario Draghi is nothing less than magnificent in my view, and will help create jobs and industry for millions, and turn into wealth. This stimulus augurs well for the European stockmarkets and for the Euro itself, which it now underpins with a very positive aspect. It seems to have been announced at the right time, and although the immediate market reaction may not have been wildly enthusiastic, it is a complex stimulus, needing people to understand and digest its implications.
In plain terms, it is 60 billion Euros per month over 18 months, starting from March to September 2016, meaning a total of 1,080,000,000,000* Euros. This was announced by Mr Draghi at the press conference in Frankfurt this afternoon.
It will serve the 19 nations that make up the Euro Area, or Eurozone, which now includes as from 1st January 2015 Lithuania. However, it will not be available at the moment to Greece, which benefits from arrangements already in place from the IMF, which gave them two bailouts and numerous haircuts. Perhaps there could be cross border mergers of some organisations which would benefit all?
There seems enough appetite for additional funds, especially by companies who have not been able to find funding from the banks so far. This is a ready segment that will be glad to be served by this Stimulus. As in England and Britain, where Mr Cameron has been visiting various companies, who have received funding now, something similar needs to be implemented in the Eurozone. Money invested in companies which need capital for upgrades of machinery, or cash flow to keep the factories operating while their customers arrange to pay them, will maintain employment and sustain livelihoods and, hopefully, even create wealth in the long term. That 'old school' way of trading had died recently in the credit crunch, and could well do with revival. It may be the clue to bring Recovery back on stream.
This Trillion Euro Stimulus was long awaited, and probably is just in time, now joining the money flow in the U.S., Japan and China, to maintain the worldwide economic Recovery, which shall flourish to Prosperity for all nations. The next stage surely must be for the BRICS nations to reduce their benchmark interest rates and for the Emerging Markets to do something similar, in due course to be followed by Africa perhaps? Or even simultaneously, and soon? Why not? The national books can become squared internationally, as each nation develops its resources, trades with the other nations, and brings development and growth at home. Would that not be the most marvellous thing to happen?
I wish you peace and prosperity, to every nation, man, woman and child.
P.S. Earlier I left out three 0's. Aw aw aw!
|Posted on January 21, 2015 at 12:19 PM||comments ()|
The Oil price started to slide from the mid $80s down to the recent $45 after Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia would not cut the 300,000 barrels per day which the market expected. It was the same day as the OPEC meeting in Vienna. The Arabs must have felt compelled to go with this strategy, Sheikh Ali Al-Naimi declaring that Saudi would not cut production either. The pronouncements of that day have left a big scar on the landscape, with the Russian economy nearly entering a period of recession. The OPEC nations have tried to bravely weather the storm, relying on the abundant surpluses they had built up when the price was high.
But pressures from the populations at home together with anger at the absurdity of pricing the valued commodity so cheaply, has seen the Venezuelan President Maduro trying to gather friends for his cause. A low Oil price may be okay for a major producer like Saudi Arabia, who would be profitable even if the price dropped further, but for Iran to say they would be happy with a price of $25 per barrel is just tongue-in-cheek. That sardonic tongue has been well interpreted, and the price has started to rally.
Even today, the words of OPEC Secretary General El-Badri speaking in Davos today, suggest the floor has been reached. According to him, the low current oil prices may obtain for this month or so, but are likely to rebound from now on.
With a low Oil price starting to hit shale and fracking producers in the U.S. and elsewhere, with announcement of job cuts in this industry worldwide, the Saudis must see that they are hurting their friends while they were trying to help, and it has been at a huge financial loss to themselves.
The current oil surplus on the world markets will by common sense bring cuts in production in most countries, bar those who would continue producing more regardless in an effort to wear down their competitors and take as much market share as possible. But certainly, on pure financial logic, why produce more to achieve a lower gross figure? Some calculations suggest a price of $50 to $60 per barrel would be a cut off point. Cheaper than that is just throwing away this precious commodity.
There is no sense in overproducing now and suffering shortages later.
A stable honest price will do the whole world a power of good, helping the OPEC and other oil producing nations with their revenues, and even allowing the shale and frackers to get back on stream, which will help maintain the only-recently-created jobs in that segment of the energy industry.
Choosing the golden route of stable pricing and stable supplies would be good for the whole world.
I predict this will be a golden year for global growth, as more and more nations try to fulfil the dreams of their people, and create growth and prosperity. It is possible, if all are guided by the urge for peace and equitable exchange of resources, which God has granted to every nation. What could be better than to win a prosperity for their people with those resources?
I am guided by a feeling that our Heavenly Father would be happiest to see all nations live in peace and prosperity.
I send you my good wishes for the New Year.
Durudarshan H. Dadlani
|Posted on November 24, 2014 at 4:05 PM||comments ()|
I had suggested a few months ago that the Oil price should be down, as had Oppenheimer chief economist Fadel Gheit.
Now it is down, well below $85. At this level, I believe it is overdone, now at around $76 for Brent Ice and $71 for West Texas Intermediate.
Most of the economies who export oil would not find it viable to be producing at $70 a barrel - there would be no profit.
The only exception is Saudi Arabia. Some have suggested that they would be profitable producing it at an even lower price. However, the supply and demand dynamics as well as the political advantage would tip outside their interest, and economically, they would be throwing away their clout in the market by making it cheaper. Under $70 a barrel will hurt a lot of the Oil exporting nations and their balance sheets. Their infrastructure development projects would probably come to a halt in a short while, and that - forgive me pointing out - may induce a contraction in the world economy, that most people would rather not see.
In their own best interests as well as that of other OPEC nations, this Friday's meeting in Vienna I predict will produce a tightening on production quotas to restore the value of Oil.
It is suggested that Russia may be reducing their production by about 300,000 barrels a day; if Saudi Arabia cuts their production by around a million barrels a day, the demand-supply dynamics may restore the price upwards. The winter in the Western hemisphere is predicted to be cold, which will necessitate more fuel use. If the price is restored upwards, that in fact would be best for the world, so all economies can continue as before (and better for those obtaining Oil at the current lower prices) without harming anyone too much.
The world will be waiting for some sensible decisions in Vienna this Friday.
Durudarshan H. Dadlani
|Posted on November 19, 2013 at 4:21 AM||comments ()|
Good morning, readers. As the DOW passed 16,000 yesterday, I didn't write anything at that moment. Regular readers of my column/blog will surely know that I was one of the few to suggest the DOW would go past 14,000 - then past 15,000 (the magic of 15,000) - and only recently 16,000. I was of the view that the DOW could even do 17,000 this year, in the next five weeks or so. A thousand points in say 25 working days, is it possible? I shall wait to assess the markets further before I would commit to such a suggestion.
In the meantime, I imagine a lot of punters will take some money off the table, and put into alternative markets. India SENSEX has seen more inflows in last few days.
If not this year, then certainly I believe the DOW will hit 17,000 in next few months, on the proviso that the feel-good is assisted by the candy distribution, on which the panel will decide in the US this week.
That's all for now.
I wish joy and success to all my readers, in Netherlands, Fuzhou, California, India, Kenya, Tokyo, etc, etc.
Caveat : Everyone trades entirely at their own risk, I am merely sharing my views.
(c) Copyright 19th November 2013, Durudarshan H. Dadlani.
|Posted on November 10, 2013 at 11:40 AM||comments ()|
Remembrance Day at the Ilford chapel of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints was marked by the Bishop and congregation paying respects to the memories of the heroes and heroines who gave their lives in the quest for freedom from tyranny and injustice.
How great a freedom we enjoy today as citizens of England is all due to the heroes and heroines who laid down their lives, as well as those valiant men and women who helped negotiate peace and brought forward this day into being.
Brother Jeremy Boyden : "We remember all those who made the ultimate sacrifice, like our Saviour, and we mark this day when peace was first agreed between all nations, on 11th November 1918".
The President's wife Sister Saltzman read a poem about Flanders Fields.
The Bishop's son, Brother Michael Onaolapo Jnr : "Greater love hath no man then He who gave up His own life so that others may live."
Sister Shannon Pickering, who was baptised in the Ilford ward two weeks ago, spoke a few words about the loving atmosphere that prevails in this land, thanks to people like her gransparents who did their bit during the war.
Sister Joanne Boyden read a famous poem, starting The glory shines upon my tears....She read the bit about hopes and expectations and stars and then became very emotional. (I asked her later; she explained that her Mother lost two brothers in the war). (For the Fallen, Robert Laurence Binyon).
Brother Michael Lighten paid tribute to the great example of Captain Noel Godfrey Chavasse, recounting events in the Captain's life in the Royal Army Medical Corp, who had to combine civilian with military duties at the front, where he saw within a few hours 189 casualties out of 600. Captain Chavasse worked behind enemy lines for four hours, just 500 yards to safety. On another occasion just 25 yards from enemy trenches. Altogether, Captain Chavasse saved the lives of approximately 20,000 men.
On another occasion, he worked with protection against an attack of mustard gas.
Noel picked up his torch, and rose up in his time, working against impossible conditions of mud, blood and water. Captain Chavasse was decoated with a rare second Victoria Cross. Such men are rare indeed, and we all recall his courage with awe and celebration.
"For their tomorrows, we give our today" John Maxwell Edmonds. That was the spirit of the unknown solider, great soul who's memory we salute today.
We stood and paid our respects to the memories of the men and women who have won the freedoms that have greatly contributed to the enjoyment of peace and peaceful life that England enjoys today.
Bishop Onaolapo made these closing remarks : "We are here because of the sacrifices the soldiers, male and female, have made for us. That is why the great atmosphere of stability and safety, friendliness and love prevails in this nation. I am sure this country will go from strength to strength because of that, and I am proud to be a citizen of this great country of ours."
I believe this sums up the congregations sentiments on this day, when we salute those whose lives were lost, as well as those who brought about peace.
May God's blessings be upon all.
(written by Duru-darshan
LDS Ilford ward)
|Posted on November 9, 2013 at 6:12 AM||comments ()|
My thanks to the staff at these Search Engines for listing and indexing my website, and to Vistaprint for so beautifully hosting my website over last 28 months. It has built from strength to strength, drawing many visitors each day. Thanks to all :
Google (the multi-trillion dollar brain)
Twitter (tweet tweet to you)
LinkedIn (professional and so well defined)
Yahoo (book readers love you)
Bing (looks like people like spy thrillers)
and, just for good measure, a few porno sites, harmless fun is okay I'd say.
My blogs being read overnight are as follows :
- The ECB's 25 basispoint cut
- Stephanie Ruhle, CNBC interviewer
(She's actually an anchor for Bloomberg, working in New York)
- This is time for buyers to support Bangladesh factories
(American companies have done so, may blessings be unto them)
- Thomas Sugrue's review of The Last Great Prophet
- The Bank of America share price.
Yesterday I heard the news that China has experienced good growth and far from a hard-landing which people feared it is experiencing very sound growth, with PMI figures up and increasing.
One commentator has stated that China has several trillion dollars of reserves for investment, so I imagine the worldwide boom can continue. Today I heard that 80 percent of visas being taken for visits to Portugal are for Chinese property investors. This way, all economies with an open-door policy to encouraging property ownership and immigration would benefit from the Chinese wherewithal to sustain growth and Recovery.
If the Chinese sources are suggesting U.S. is looking for $561 Billion for next six months, it augers well for the U.S. that the jobs numbers were pretty good and growth potential is inherent in America, and it would be very probable that China would support such borrowings and support, as they have done in the recent past.
The luxury sector may start to rebound in China, who continue to buy Rolls Royce cars and jets as never before, and with the refocus on domestic consumption and increasing exports from China, it is apparent that the Honourable Xi Jinping is inspiring policies that will help the Chinese people achieve higher standards of living.
For stability and optimism into the near future, what more could the world wish for?
|Posted on November 8, 2013 at 3:42 AM||comments ()|
The announcement of the 0.25 percent cut in the European Central Bank's benchmark rate is an indication that the economic Recovery still needs a great stimulus, and this was EU's way of getting it.
Only the day before I read that Adecco, the temporary staff specialists, were seeing increased signs of hiring of staff, and European economies are showing a sign of strengthening Recovery. It seems the services sector is growing, which is a good sign. As more people are out and about and travel, they need to sit down and eat.
The U.S. "shutdown" which at one point affected between 700,000 and 800,000 workers, who were told not to turn up for work and others who were furloughed i.e. had their hours reduced to only attend at peak-demand times - that "shutdown" saw reduced demand in travelling and catering across the pond. Here in London I have noticed a few cafes and restaurants mostly used by tourists close. And that was the effect of just a lull in a few weeks of trading.
At the moment, although there is a positive buzz, the uncertainity of the debt ceiling raise pending for 7th February is bound to weigh down on sentiment. It seems Senator Paul has indicated that Dr Janet Yellen will see confirmation of her nomination to the Federal Reserve's chairmanship, and the administration of the spigot can continue.
Feelings on this question are mixed, as the Chinese sources suggest that the U.S. is seeking about $561 Billion over the next six months. This would equate to roughly $93.5 Billion a month. That definitely suggests a phase of monetary expansion bigger than before, as the quantitative easing was running at some $85 Billion a month, cut by 1/12th with the Sequestration. If the stimulus could be so increased,
then that would definitely improve the picture of Recovery for next year. But in terms of reality, perhaps the $85 Billion a month will need to be restored, as suggested by Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew. No one liked the Sequestration, with scholars being sent home due to non provision of a mid day meal, not to mention problems with funding necessary upgrades to fleets.
It is good news that housing in the U.S. registered positive gains in 44 States last month, and when a stable situation arrives after the debt ceiling issue is resolved, better gains may be expected.
In the meantime, a stable and happy scenario is expected up to Christmas and New Year worldwide.
Chinese PMI data suggests a growing strength in the domestic re-focus as well as exporting sectors.
The United Kingdom is registering positive growth in housing numbers and GDP growth, greatly helped by the introduction of the Help to Buy scheme. Hopefully speculators and buy-to-let landlords are not assisted so much that the property market may become a bubble, causing soaring rents, homelessness and reliance on the social welfare system.
A mixed picture of optimism, with the Twitter IPO yesterday providing some amusement. The market seems to manufacture some euphoria, with the underwriters making good profits.
That's it for now. Very soon I'm off to the World Money Show, at the Queen Elizabeth Conference Centre not far from Big Ben.