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Honest Information, Profitable Trading

Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

My Blog


What are the chances of the worldwide economic Recovery continuing this year?

Posted on January 2, 2016 at 11:19 AM Comments comments ()
The chances are pretty decent of the worldwide economic Recovery continuing this year, with the promising possibility of enhancement.

Japan seems to have decided to continue its Stimulus, running at some $85 billion a month.  This is gigantic for the size of their population, and guarantees the highest standards of living in the world to all Japanese citizens, plus a growing influence around the world, where their capital is likely to foster growth and development.  For example, they have offered $35 billion to India for joint venture in developments of infrastructure, and this will certainly add to Japanese GNP.

India has done joint venture and co-operation treaties with Germany and France, to help develop some of the 100 new cities that Pradhanmantri Shree Narendra Modi announced at the beginning of 2015.  Since then, he has visited China and Russia, and is signing up co-operation and trade agreements with every likely nation, including many in Africa.  As a lot of Indians lived in Africa and grew up there, it seems India is taking an altruistic stance, wishing to repay with gratitude to their African brothers and sisters.  This is a laudable gesture, and will enable the inherent and huge potential growth that is in places such as Lagos and Zimbabwe. 

China too is extending its sphere of influence, Hon Xi Jinping visited so many nations and signing up trade and co-operation treaties.  I can imagine joy for all these nations, where they will have expertise been made available to them, together with the machinery and transportation to fully benefit from their resources as well as create infrastructure developments which they so badly need.  How can people not imagine dams, electricity, drinking water available on the doorstep, schools, dispensaries, hospitals, hotels, housing, tourists.....thriving economies....where God has blessed them with the rich fertile lands, mineral wealth, green vegetation, fragrant flowers, livestock to provide them plenty of milk.  Africa is most likely to come up with the most number of billionaires soon....or if not, at least top social entrepreneurs who will instead contribute to their lands through holding together and creating business enterprises which serve the communities.  If not dollar billionaires, these will be the enlightened spiritual billionaires who will do great good for their once, their people will have increasing standards of living.  If the local African banks can back these entrepreneurs, they can create the development and wealth and growth that is the potential.  I pray all these people receive the rich blessings from God.

The United States has steadily grown from the dark days of the 2008 meltdown to today, where the economy seems to have been totally restored, and is growing, with confidence, more jobs, more enterprise, more homeowners, more cars......Now the Fed will just need to fix the Debt Ceiling (in March, it seems).  If they just expand the balance sheet to January 2017, the Obama administration will be home and dry, and all the senators and representatives can continue to collect their pay checks. 
The alternative policies of the Tea Party crowd or Republicans like Donald Trump would see Obamacare repealed, and poor students being sent home due to lack of a free lunch at school.  Those dark days caused due to sequestration are something that is best forgotten. 

I pray Hillary Clinton shall become elected as the President at November 2016.  Simply, it seems her destiny.  It would resonate with the times and the perceptions of people today, everybody seeking self-expression in a democracy.  Her election will enshrine the highest achievement in gender equality.  That is a truth the people will not wish to hide, nor deny themselves. The time has come for this Democrat to rise as the dove, and sit in the highest office in the land.

She was very successful as a peacemaker in the Middle East when she was the Secretary of State.  She has a natural gift for making peace agreements, and people trust her.  She is a natural ambassador for peace.  The world atmosphere will change when she becomes President, the whole tone of political relations will change, I believe, for the better.  It is up to the people, to honour her, and elect her to the White House. 

The One Trillion Eighty Billion Stimulus that the European Central Bank has rolled out has the promise of being extended beyond September 2016, as announced by their President Mario Draghi recently.  That will offer ample scope for upgrade and innovation by the companies in the Euro Area (and by extension Europe) to meet the challenges of these times.  On that note, the one thing the world is waiting for is the Juncker Plan.  With reforms under way, Greece must surely be ready for it.

The low Oil price has depleted the reserves of the oil exporting nations, and their budget deficits have been bigger than envisaged.  That suggests they will review their stance on cutting productions, and introduce some cuts before long; their stance has hurt their purses deeply, so some change may be expected.  Russia too could follow suit, unless they are happy to foster a recession at home.  Common sense would suggest oil price could begin to rise.....but when is only known to the bigwigs in OPEC and Russia.  It is past the post-panic stage; it seems it is a time when they must be regretting not cutting back production earlier.  And there would be no loss of face.  Economic reality seems pretty harsh.

May I wish you good health and joy for the New Year.

Kind regards,
Durudarshan H. Dadlani

(c) Copyright, but may be freely shared.

Acheh din Budget for India

Posted on July 12, 2014 at 3:44 PM Comments comments ()
British Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne and Foreign Minister William Hague were enthused to see the unveiling of the Acheh din Budget while they were there in India.

The Modi government's  first Budget, delivered in the Indian parliament by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, was really brilliant.  "It is the best plan we could afford the Indian nation, according to the money we have in our pocket," Modiji is reported to have announced.  Within those parameters, it is nothing short of brilliant, and augers much development and creation of jobs, which will greatly contribute to an increasing common prosperity for the people.

There are plans to build 100 new towns.  This is exactly what has been needed for a long time.  This will brighten up crumbling inner city areas and turn some of the them into satellite towns, where they would become the local centres for commerce and some industrialisation, leading to create jobs where people live so they don't have to travel on the crowded trains.  That is so practical, so visionary.

They intend to build a major hospital in each State, so presumably the newly created state of Telangana will also be in line for a world-class teaching and treatment facility.  Certainly some of the neglected States can do with, such as the eastern board states of Meghalaya, Arunchal, Orissa, West Bengal. 

The government will create a programme of paying a monetary reward to people who keep the birth of a girl-child (instead of aborting or worse still getting rid of the child upon birth, as happens in some communities, due to the financial hardships they fear).  This will certainly be very welcome measure throughout India.  More houses can say "Laxmi has arrived" when they get a daughter.  With some money towards schooling, this will no doubt be of great assistance. 

There are measures to help Entrepreneurs as well as the rural youth, by job creation measure.  This is excellent, and I hope when translated into reality, this will bring much joy. 

I often wonder why Indian doesn't actually start a fully fledged social security state.  The 40 billionaires who have fortunes as big as the richest billionaires in the world can certainly afford to share some of their wealth.  But that is a moot point, as is the bringing home of the two to four Trillion Dollars of Indians' savings which are said to be stored overseas, paying interest in some cases or 'gathering dust'.  Such an amount could be brought back once the government declares an amnestry and promises not to penalise or punish those who have stashed the money overseas.  And that would be the most logical and humane course of action, to benefit the nation as a whole eventually.

I also believe India needs at least three more nuclear power plants, to satisfy the need for power in the oppressive heat.  As Modiji sets out on his visits to Japan and the U.S. in the next few weeks, I guess these will be on his agenda.  Bringing in international co-operation would be a good step to speed up the process of bringing development and comfort to India, something that is so obviously needed but the past governments just did not think of doing much about.  With the caring and proactive government under Modiji, I sincerely hope this suggestion will receive some consideration.

To bring the Acheh din forward, maybe the RBI could reduce the benchmark interest rate?  8 percent is too high, and I would say that it is obviously the primary factor in the recent slowdown in economic activity.  Just in the exuberance of the Modi government's inauguration, the industrial production has picked up.  Inflows of money from overseas for the stockmarket have been forthcoming.  So now surely the RBI committee can have faith that investment will be forthcoming if the environment is better, and the best environment for economic growth will be lower interest rates, perhaps converging towards 6 percent?

The world wants to woo Modiji, and help India unleash the huge potential growth.  I feel sure Modiji will receive a blue carpet welcome both in Japan and the U.S. and these friendly nations will offer India the support and encouragement that just seems to need confirmation. 

Acheh din zaroor Bharat ke liye aane lageh heh.

Kind regards,
Durudarshan H. Dadlani