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Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

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What are the chances of the worldwide economic Recovery continuing this year?

Posted on January 2, 2016 at 11:19 AM Comments comments ()
The chances are pretty decent of the worldwide economic Recovery continuing this year, with the promising possibility of enhancement.

Japan seems to have decided to continue its Stimulus, running at some $85 billion a month.  This is gigantic for the size of their population, and guarantees the highest standards of living in the world to all Japanese citizens, plus a growing influence around the world, where their capital is likely to foster growth and development.  For example, they have offered $35 billion to India for joint venture in developments of infrastructure, and this will certainly add to Japanese GNP.

India has done joint venture and co-operation treaties with Germany and France, to help develop some of the 100 new cities that Pradhanmantri Shree Narendra Modi announced at the beginning of 2015.  Since then, he has visited China and Russia, and is signing up co-operation and trade agreements with every likely nation, including many in Africa.  As a lot of Indians lived in Africa and grew up there, it seems India is taking an altruistic stance, wishing to repay with gratitude to their African brothers and sisters.  This is a laudable gesture, and will enable the inherent and huge potential growth that is in places such as Lagos and Zimbabwe. 

China too is extending its sphere of influence, Hon Xi Jinping visited so many nations and signing up trade and co-operation treaties.  I can imagine joy for all these nations, where they will have expertise been made available to them, together with the machinery and transportation to fully benefit from their resources as well as create infrastructure developments which they so badly need.  How can people not imagine dams, electricity, drinking water available on the doorstep, schools, dispensaries, hospitals, hotels, housing, tourists.....thriving economies....where God has blessed them with the rich fertile lands, mineral wealth, green vegetation, fragrant flowers, livestock to provide them plenty of milk.  Africa is most likely to come up with the most number of billionaires soon....or if not, at least top social entrepreneurs who will instead contribute to their lands through holding together and creating business enterprises which serve the communities.  If not dollar billionaires, these will be the enlightened spiritual billionaires who will do great good for their communities....at once, their people will have increasing standards of living.  If the local African banks can back these entrepreneurs, they can create the development and wealth and growth that is the potential.  I pray all these people receive the rich blessings from God.

The United States has steadily grown from the dark days of the 2008 meltdown to today, where the economy seems to have been totally restored, and is growing, with confidence, more jobs, more enterprise, more homeowners, more cars......Now the Fed will just need to fix the Debt Ceiling (in March, it seems).  If they just expand the balance sheet to January 2017, the Obama administration will be home and dry, and all the senators and representatives can continue to collect their pay checks. 
The alternative policies of the Tea Party crowd or Republicans like Donald Trump would see Obamacare repealed, and poor students being sent home due to lack of a free lunch at school.  Those dark days caused due to sequestration are something that is best forgotten. 

I pray Hillary Clinton shall become elected as the President at November 2016.  Simply, it seems her destiny.  It would resonate with the times and the perceptions of people today, everybody seeking self-expression in a democracy.  Her election will enshrine the highest achievement in gender equality.  That is a truth the people will not wish to hide, nor deny themselves. The time has come for this Democrat to rise as the dove, and sit in the highest office in the land.

She was very successful as a peacemaker in the Middle East when she was the Secretary of State.  She has a natural gift for making peace agreements, and people trust her.  She is a natural ambassador for peace.  The world atmosphere will change when she becomes President, the whole tone of political relations will change, I believe, for the better.  It is up to the people, to honour her, and elect her to the White House. 

The One Trillion Eighty Billion Stimulus that the European Central Bank has rolled out has the promise of being extended beyond September 2016, as announced by their President Mario Draghi recently.  That will offer ample scope for upgrade and innovation by the companies in the Euro Area (and by extension Europe) to meet the challenges of these times.  On that note, the one thing the world is waiting for is the Juncker Plan.  With reforms under way, Greece must surely be ready for it.

The low Oil price has depleted the reserves of the oil exporting nations, and their budget deficits have been bigger than envisaged.  That suggests they will review their stance on cutting productions, and introduce some cuts before long; their stance has hurt their purses deeply, so some change may be expected.  Russia too could follow suit, unless they are happy to foster a recession at home.  Common sense would suggest oil price could begin to rise.....but when is only known to the bigwigs in OPEC and Russia.  It is past the post-panic stage; it seems it is a time when they must be regretting not cutting back production earlier.  And there would be no loss of face.  Economic reality seems pretty harsh.

May I wish you good health and joy for the New Year.

Kind regards,
Durudarshan H. Dadlani

(c) Copyright, but may be freely shared.

The future is bright, very bright.

Posted on August 11, 2014 at 11:49 AM Comments comments ()
The future seems bright, very bright, for citizens of most countries, where peace prevails with good sense and normal development;
 and trade with other nations takes place, creating work activity and a growing prosperity for the people. 
That established strategy with redoubled efforts has paid off, for the United States, China, Germany, Holland, United Kingdom.  Renewed efforts in France and Italy will soon I pray pay off for them too. 

Greece the economy has started to heal, as has Spain.  A little more effort in Portugal and Ireland will pay off. 

I believe the Italian economy needs some investment from the ECB.  My rough estimate is about 50 Billion Euros per quarter, for a year.
For Ireland, my guestimate is about 10 Billion Euros per quarter, for a year.

The BRICS nations have formed a New Development Bank, with the first Presidency being given to India.  The headquarters of this New Development Bank is in India, New Delhi, and there is capitalisation of One Hundred Billion U.S. Dollars.  That seems a start to inaugurate some major infrastructure projects in some of the BRICS nations.  Of course, once those are under way, much more capital requirements will be there, with the size and scope of all the development that is possible and necessary.

Under the dynamic leadership of PM Nardendra Modiji, I foresee rapid growth;  I imagine lot of thought and energy has gone into this at this early stage of his Premiership by Modiji.  The people of India expect a crowning glory of their expectations and potential, and a lot is expected to be achieved in the next five years.  Now the world will wait and listen to what he arranges with Japan and the United States upon his visits to those nations, which are forthcoming.

India has huge needs for power generation and upgrades, and I imagine both Japan and the United States offering capital investments and co-operation and expertise in these fields.  Logically it would be a gracious arrangement, as the development of India has so far been held back by lack of the necessary energy.  I pray this may soon be remedied, to the growing happiness of the Indian people, with more industrialisation (some), more housing (plenty), more schools and colleges (yes please), more hospitals, leisure complexes, roads, airports, runways, bridges, power grids, etc, etc.  As the population grows up in the next ten years, their demands will be very substantial.  As the growing needs of the people are addressed properly, a huge cycle of activity and growth can be enjoined.  It will just be necessary.

The same could be said to be true of the other BRICS nations, and their development and growth over the next five to ten years will somewhat mirror those of the developed economies. 

A mood of peace will of course be essential, for free movement of goods and people.  This new cycle of growth in the Emerging Economies will be the second leg of the worldwide economic Recovery. I foresee a great period of cultural exchanges and relocation of people to work in different nations, creating opportunities for more and more people and a growing prosperity everywhere. 

Africa too is a growth story, a huge growth story, which is starting to take shape at a rapid pace. 

The future is very very bright.  I pray for Peace and Prosperity for everyone, everywhere.

Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.



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