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Honest Information, Profitable Trading

Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

My Blog


What are the chances of the worldwide economic Recovery continuing this year?

Posted on January 2, 2016 at 11:19 AM Comments comments ()
The chances are pretty decent of the worldwide economic Recovery continuing this year, with the promising possibility of enhancement.

Japan seems to have decided to continue its Stimulus, running at some $85 billion a month.  This is gigantic for the size of their population, and guarantees the highest standards of living in the world to all Japanese citizens, plus a growing influence around the world, where their capital is likely to foster growth and development.  For example, they have offered $35 billion to India for joint venture in developments of infrastructure, and this will certainly add to Japanese GNP.

India has done joint venture and co-operation treaties with Germany and France, to help develop some of the 100 new cities that Pradhanmantri Shree Narendra Modi announced at the beginning of 2015.  Since then, he has visited China and Russia, and is signing up co-operation and trade agreements with every likely nation, including many in Africa.  As a lot of Indians lived in Africa and grew up there, it seems India is taking an altruistic stance, wishing to repay with gratitude to their African brothers and sisters.  This is a laudable gesture, and will enable the inherent and huge potential growth that is in places such as Lagos and Zimbabwe. 

China too is extending its sphere of influence, Hon Xi Jinping visited so many nations and signing up trade and co-operation treaties.  I can imagine joy for all these nations, where they will have expertise been made available to them, together with the machinery and transportation to fully benefit from their resources as well as create infrastructure developments which they so badly need.  How can people not imagine dams, electricity, drinking water available on the doorstep, schools, dispensaries, hospitals, hotels, housing, tourists.....thriving economies....where God has blessed them with the rich fertile lands, mineral wealth, green vegetation, fragrant flowers, livestock to provide them plenty of milk.  Africa is most likely to come up with the most number of billionaires soon....or if not, at least top social entrepreneurs who will instead contribute to their lands through holding together and creating business enterprises which serve the communities.  If not dollar billionaires, these will be the enlightened spiritual billionaires who will do great good for their once, their people will have increasing standards of living.  If the local African banks can back these entrepreneurs, they can create the development and wealth and growth that is the potential.  I pray all these people receive the rich blessings from God.

The United States has steadily grown from the dark days of the 2008 meltdown to today, where the economy seems to have been totally restored, and is growing, with confidence, more jobs, more enterprise, more homeowners, more cars......Now the Fed will just need to fix the Debt Ceiling (in March, it seems).  If they just expand the balance sheet to January 2017, the Obama administration will be home and dry, and all the senators and representatives can continue to collect their pay checks. 
The alternative policies of the Tea Party crowd or Republicans like Donald Trump would see Obamacare repealed, and poor students being sent home due to lack of a free lunch at school.  Those dark days caused due to sequestration are something that is best forgotten. 

I pray Hillary Clinton shall become elected as the President at November 2016.  Simply, it seems her destiny.  It would resonate with the times and the perceptions of people today, everybody seeking self-expression in a democracy.  Her election will enshrine the highest achievement in gender equality.  That is a truth the people will not wish to hide, nor deny themselves. The time has come for this Democrat to rise as the dove, and sit in the highest office in the land.

She was very successful as a peacemaker in the Middle East when she was the Secretary of State.  She has a natural gift for making peace agreements, and people trust her.  She is a natural ambassador for peace.  The world atmosphere will change when she becomes President, the whole tone of political relations will change, I believe, for the better.  It is up to the people, to honour her, and elect her to the White House. 

The One Trillion Eighty Billion Stimulus that the European Central Bank has rolled out has the promise of being extended beyond September 2016, as announced by their President Mario Draghi recently.  That will offer ample scope for upgrade and innovation by the companies in the Euro Area (and by extension Europe) to meet the challenges of these times.  On that note, the one thing the world is waiting for is the Juncker Plan.  With reforms under way, Greece must surely be ready for it.

The low Oil price has depleted the reserves of the oil exporting nations, and their budget deficits have been bigger than envisaged.  That suggests they will review their stance on cutting productions, and introduce some cuts before long; their stance has hurt their purses deeply, so some change may be expected.  Russia too could follow suit, unless they are happy to foster a recession at home.  Common sense would suggest oil price could begin to rise.....but when is only known to the bigwigs in OPEC and Russia.  It is past the post-panic stage; it seems it is a time when they must be regretting not cutting back production earlier.  And there would be no loss of face.  Economic reality seems pretty harsh.

May I wish you good health and joy for the New Year.

Kind regards,
Durudarshan H. Dadlani

(c) Copyright, but may be freely shared.

Heartening news, the ECB stimulus

Posted on February 28, 2015 at 2:47 PM Comments comments ()
It is such heartening news, the Trillion Euro Stimulus that will be commenced by the European Central Bank within a matter of days, in March.  It is understood they will be pumping out about 60 Billion Euros per month within the Euro Area countries, and this will bring much needed support in some of them and an unexpected boost in the others.

The Greeks can surmise some reassurance from this, that the necessary support will be available to them to avert any default.  Now that Greece has registered a growth in the gross domestic product in the most recent quarter of 0.7 percent, it seems the measures they are already taking will enable them to grow even more, reducing joblessness and despair and creating enterprise, simplifying shop opening laws and helping their beautiful warm country bring even more tourists there, and not only to enjoy their retsina and ouzo and the national Greek dance. 

There were words in the press that the ECB has promised to allow Greece about 59.5 Billion - the lion's share of the first month's stimulus.  If that is so, Greece knows how they are honoured to be among the Eurozone nations. 

Italy, France and Portugal as well as the Emerald Isles will also be looking for some of the stimulus in the coming months.  I can imagine these nations flourishing soon.  There will be local demand, as well as from outside, for homes in these civilized nations.  Houses and hotels in Dublin currently seem to be at bargain basement prices; an equal attention to the green lands for dairy pasture and agriculture will certainly make a very welcome contribution to the improvements in their economy, as well as the financial and pharmaceutical industries. 

Do you think people will be travelling for trade and tourism from nation to nation?  I think so.

Oil seems to have stabilised in price, around the $50-$60 level.  That there is a gap between the Ice Brent and WTI shows support is being built up, and prices will likely bounce around these levels for some time.  I really do not believe they will go down, although some people may hope so.  The current levels are beneficial for most economies, and would allow the shale and fracking industries to continue to remain viable, as well as for the OPEC and other Oil producing nations to keep their economies moving forward.  Around current pricing, all the world economies can hold well. 

I imagine good times are ahead for the Euro Area nations and their trading partners.  If there is agreement and a resumption of peace over Ukraine, the whole region would benefit.  Hopefully Russia can benefit by reduction of sanctions; the restoration of their great economy will be their peace dividend.  I pray they can be friends with Ukraine, which they consider a brotherly nation. 
Under current sanctions, trade of around $24 Billion annually is lost between Russia and Germany, Ukraine and the United States.  Only when the trade re-commences can the national books be squared on this, and that would be good for everybody.  People should be given the choice of enjoying the foods and goods they enjoy from other cultures, and trade keeps the ports, airports, freight companies, offices and warehouses busy, and the people happy earning their living in those sectors, on all sides of the world.  I pray that will resume very soon.

Have a little port or sherry or a thimble of cherry liqueur as a toast to thee.

Kind regards,

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