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Honest Information, Profitable Trading

Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

My Blog


What are the chances of the worldwide economic Recovery continuing this year?

Posted on January 2, 2016 at 11:19 AM Comments comments ()
The chances are pretty decent of the worldwide economic Recovery continuing this year, with the promising possibility of enhancement.

Japan seems to have decided to continue its Stimulus, running at some $85 billion a month.  This is gigantic for the size of their population, and guarantees the highest standards of living in the world to all Japanese citizens, plus a growing influence around the world, where their capital is likely to foster growth and development.  For example, they have offered $35 billion to India for joint venture in developments of infrastructure, and this will certainly add to Japanese GNP.

India has done joint venture and co-operation treaties with Germany and France, to help develop some of the 100 new cities that Pradhanmantri Shree Narendra Modi announced at the beginning of 2015.  Since then, he has visited China and Russia, and is signing up co-operation and trade agreements with every likely nation, including many in Africa.  As a lot of Indians lived in Africa and grew up there, it seems India is taking an altruistic stance, wishing to repay with gratitude to their African brothers and sisters.  This is a laudable gesture, and will enable the inherent and huge potential growth that is in places such as Lagos and Zimbabwe. 

China too is extending its sphere of influence, Hon Xi Jinping visited so many nations and signing up trade and co-operation treaties.  I can imagine joy for all these nations, where they will have expertise been made available to them, together with the machinery and transportation to fully benefit from their resources as well as create infrastructure developments which they so badly need.  How can people not imagine dams, electricity, drinking water available on the doorstep, schools, dispensaries, hospitals, hotels, housing, tourists.....thriving economies....where God has blessed them with the rich fertile lands, mineral wealth, green vegetation, fragrant flowers, livestock to provide them plenty of milk.  Africa is most likely to come up with the most number of billionaires soon....or if not, at least top social entrepreneurs who will instead contribute to their lands through holding together and creating business enterprises which serve the communities.  If not dollar billionaires, these will be the enlightened spiritual billionaires who will do great good for their once, their people will have increasing standards of living.  If the local African banks can back these entrepreneurs, they can create the development and wealth and growth that is the potential.  I pray all these people receive the rich blessings from God.

The United States has steadily grown from the dark days of the 2008 meltdown to today, where the economy seems to have been totally restored, and is growing, with confidence, more jobs, more enterprise, more homeowners, more cars......Now the Fed will just need to fix the Debt Ceiling (in March, it seems).  If they just expand the balance sheet to January 2017, the Obama administration will be home and dry, and all the senators and representatives can continue to collect their pay checks. 
The alternative policies of the Tea Party crowd or Republicans like Donald Trump would see Obamacare repealed, and poor students being sent home due to lack of a free lunch at school.  Those dark days caused due to sequestration are something that is best forgotten. 

I pray Hillary Clinton shall become elected as the President at November 2016.  Simply, it seems her destiny.  It would resonate with the times and the perceptions of people today, everybody seeking self-expression in a democracy.  Her election will enshrine the highest achievement in gender equality.  That is a truth the people will not wish to hide, nor deny themselves. The time has come for this Democrat to rise as the dove, and sit in the highest office in the land.

She was very successful as a peacemaker in the Middle East when she was the Secretary of State.  She has a natural gift for making peace agreements, and people trust her.  She is a natural ambassador for peace.  The world atmosphere will change when she becomes President, the whole tone of political relations will change, I believe, for the better.  It is up to the people, to honour her, and elect her to the White House. 

The One Trillion Eighty Billion Stimulus that the European Central Bank has rolled out has the promise of being extended beyond September 2016, as announced by their President Mario Draghi recently.  That will offer ample scope for upgrade and innovation by the companies in the Euro Area (and by extension Europe) to meet the challenges of these times.  On that note, the one thing the world is waiting for is the Juncker Plan.  With reforms under way, Greece must surely be ready for it.

The low Oil price has depleted the reserves of the oil exporting nations, and their budget deficits have been bigger than envisaged.  That suggests they will review their stance on cutting productions, and introduce some cuts before long; their stance has hurt their purses deeply, so some change may be expected.  Russia too could follow suit, unless they are happy to foster a recession at home.  Common sense would suggest oil price could begin to rise.....but when is only known to the bigwigs in OPEC and Russia.  It is past the post-panic stage; it seems it is a time when they must be regretting not cutting back production earlier.  And there would be no loss of face.  Economic reality seems pretty harsh.

May I wish you good health and joy for the New Year.

Kind regards,
Durudarshan H. Dadlani

(c) Copyright, but may be freely shared.

If the Fed raises the rate, should it matter a lot?

Posted on July 3, 2015 at 5:31 PM Comments comments ()
I don't think so.  With the good jobs numbers for 15 of 16 months, the U.S. economy is showing signs of positive growth, including stable housing prices moving upwards, more people having faith in the economy and jobs and taking courage to buy their homes, more sales of cars, durable goods etc.  This is likely to give grounds to raise the interest rate, with the elasticity of demand it seems now overdue.

I think September is when it is most likely, when the Debt Ceiling comes in for review, yet again.
Since August 2011, when $2.15 Trillion was authorised, it seems through prudence and expediency
they have renewed that almost automatically for the last few years.  The current stimulus, if I am not mistaken, is about $110 billion a month.  And of course it is creating wealth in the nation, good jobs being created in the public sector, giving people the power to spend and live well, increasing consumer demand, contributing to companies' coffers with bumper sales, look at GM or Apple for example.  America is a robust rosy picture.  A small percentage increase will be no bad thing.  Indeed, the health of the nation will dictate that the rates have to be raised a notch. 

As an American banker explained to me recently, the raising of the Debt Ceiling is like drawing a line in the sand, and all it needs is the blessings of both the Democrats and Republicans.  These astute folks know the best way to work in the nation's interest, thereby also ensuring the continuation of their own pay checks.  So an agreeable Debt Ceiling raise can be assumed to be a foregone conclusion.  With that in place, I see further strength in the DOW Jones industrial average, the basket of the top American corporations will reflect the peoples' desire to invest in sound household names, companies who will pay them good dividends, and companies whose products you normally use anyway - so it does great service to the share price as well and you benefit that way.

I had seen a trajectory for the DOW to 18,500** by the end of June.  It did not reach there - mainly because of the shocks of terroristic attacks in Tunisia and Lyons, Kuwait and elsewhere.  Also, the Greek 'default' or 'in arrears' scenario weighed the markets down.  The comparative size of it seemed not the worry, but the sentiment.  Now it seems there is more confidence that the situation will stabilise and result in a happy compromise for the Greek people.  A Trillion and Half dollars were wiped off the world stockmarkets following the attacks and the volatile situation in Greece.  Once the situation regarding Greece is clear after Sunday's Referendum (where the Greek government is hedging their bet in a very astute way) I believe the markets may start to make up lost ground.  And in that process go higher - having tested 18,250+, I reckon the DOW will logically wish to test 18,500.  If the sentiment becomes more favourable, I believe that may happen well before September.  After that, who knows? - but I am suggesting it could move even higher, even if the rate is hiked up a wee bit.

(**Everybody takes risk on their own account, I am merely expressing my views)/

Huge humanitarian crises have developed in Africa, the Middle East and now reaching Europe, with so many tribes becoming homeless and trying to reach anywhere they can find safety, food and shelter, and work.  The nations where wisdom reigns always allow all their citizens to share and live happily side by side; where there is lack of such wisdom, the nations fall apart, perhaps not doing any harm to the self-centred leaders, but splintering the nation nevertheless.  The refugee crises that have hit Italy and Greece, arising from Libya, Syria and Iraq, are on a breathtaking epic scale.  Here is where some time, thought and money spent by the Western nations may help to restore peace.  The refugee crises will also breed new strains of diseases which will carry into other countries.  I don't wish to alarm anybody, but nor should this issue be ignored.  Unless efforts are made to reduce the tensions and quell the enmities, huge epidemics may arrive in western nations in time, I am talking about a couple of years. 

As they say, a stitch in time saves nine.  And now is the best time for the Western nations to show goodwill to those poor nations and help them find peace with their marauding brothers, who are their kith and kin but have taken up a synthetic flag that actually gives legitimacy to their ruthless beheadings and mutilations.  They are creating their own religion or creed, becoming greedy killing machines , uprooting peaceful and timid tribes and causing this huge humanitarian crises.  Those people must be informed of the falseness of their doctrine, and must be told to regain their worthy religion, and truly in the name of Allah, live upright honest lives, helping their nations maintain peace and share the prosperity which they have been blessed with. 

Just after 2008, Lord Rama's words came to me as an inspiration : "Where there is peace, there will be prosperity too."  Those words are true, and I offer this inspiration as a guide to people of every nation.

All should prosper, and they know the basis for It : Peace.

Kind regards,