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Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

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Greece is a viable economy, what has gone wrong with it?

Posted on July 6, 2015 at 2:43 PM Comments comments ()
Greece is a viable economy, fabled as it with some of the first billionaires on Planet Earth, a country that receives abundant sunshine all year round, has fertile lands, great sea waters and strategically has support of European Union and Nato member neighbours.  So what really has gone wrong that it is in such a situation that even after receiving support of 240 billion Euros over the last few years, this nation of 11 million people is yet again looking for a bailout? 

A solution that someone suggested about five years ago, at the onset of the solution for Greece - that the Greek Orthodox should back it with the collateral of their properties.  Then their borrowing costs may be dramatically reduced.

By some calculations, Greece needs a basic cash flow of about Five Billion Euros per month.  I say basic cash flow, counting out people who are millionaires and billionaires and whose spending and lifestyle probably is an eye-popping figure. 

It has also of course been suggested many many times that were the tax dues collected from the wealthy, who probably keep their wealth hidden privately, the cash flow of their nation would improve dramatically.

Throughout the last five years, I have mostly heard about the huge numbers of educated young people who cannot find a job in Greece, the older people who have retired early because of lack of work, others who have had to take severe cuts to their salaries just to hold onto their jobs, etc, as well as some legislation that makes opening a shop or business in Greece a daunting and time-consuming task.

Look at it this way: There is a hotel, built at a cost of a Million say, which the owner has to sell, because it is lying empty, no guests at all.  He will accept a fraction of a Million for a quick sale.  Just waiting for customers is making him smoke all day, and ruining his health.  Next, circumstances change, tourists start to arrive, soon the occupancy rate is enviable and the owner is busy doing so many things, he has quit smoking, he has to maintain his health and look after the day to day operation of the business.  Today he will not sell the hotel for less than Five Million, so good it has become as a business.

Looking at some figures, 150,000 British tourists visit Greece during July, spending on average more than 600 Euros in 3-5 days.  This is a weekly trade of 90 Million Euros each week, and this is only from British tourists.  What about the other nationalities? 

Just with their tourism, fishing and agriculture, they could easily generate a cash flow of Five Billion Euros per month, not to mention the potential of generating and exporting Solar Power. 

Greece just needs a bold plan of creation of work and enterprise to engage all their people in doing something productive.  Once such a plan can be underway, there will be no reason to complain. 
On paper, it seems an economy that should prosper, with effort by all to work hard, long hours and enjoy the wealth they can help to create. 

It is great news to hear that they would like to stay part of the Euro Monetary System, for the continued stability it provides.  Sensibly, they are not looking for a Grexit.  To the contrary, they are looking to create a long term partnership in the Euro system - only the European Union leaders have to look at their situation, and agree and provide support for economic expansion.  The contractionist Austerity measures have been squarely rejected by a Xoi (No) in the Referendum. 

I believe there should be hope for the long term sustainability of the Euro, and the Greek peoples' willingness to stay within it.  At a rough calculation, their economy could reap dividends over the next ten years.  The next two years may help them lay the foundations for growth - if the Troika can offer them a favourable bailout, for an expansionist economy, to create work and enterprise.  This I sincerely believe.  I pray that the European Union leaders can continue to show generosity or spirit and kindness towards Greece.  A restructuring of the debt will help avoid any financial contagion, and help create calm waters for continued growth and prosperity throughout the world. 

Kind regards,
Durudarshan

 

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