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Honest Information, Profitable Trading

Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

My Blog


What are the chances of the worldwide economic Recovery continuing this year?

Posted on January 2, 2016 at 11:19 AM Comments comments (16)
The chances are pretty decent of the worldwide economic Recovery continuing this year, with the promising possibility of enhancement.

Japan seems to have decided to continue its Stimulus, running at some $85 billion a month.  This is gigantic for the size of their population, and guarantees the highest standards of living in the world to all Japanese citizens, plus a growing influence around the world, where their capital is likely to foster growth and development.  For example, they have offered $35 billion to India for joint venture in developments of infrastructure, and this will certainly add to Japanese GNP.

India has done joint venture and co-operation treaties with Germany and France, to help develop some of the 100 new cities that Pradhanmantri Shree Narendra Modi announced at the beginning of 2015.  Since then, he has visited China and Russia, and is signing up co-operation and trade agreements with every likely nation, including many in Africa.  As a lot of Indians lived in Africa and grew up there, it seems India is taking an altruistic stance, wishing to repay with gratitude to their African brothers and sisters.  This is a laudable gesture, and will enable the inherent and huge potential growth that is in places such as Lagos and Zimbabwe. 

China too is extending its sphere of influence, Hon Xi Jinping visited so many nations and signing up trade and co-operation treaties.  I can imagine joy for all these nations, where they will have expertise been made available to them, together with the machinery and transportation to fully benefit from their resources as well as create infrastructure developments which they so badly need.  How can people not imagine dams, electricity, drinking water available on the doorstep, schools, dispensaries, hospitals, hotels, housing, tourists.....thriving economies....where God has blessed them with the rich fertile lands, mineral wealth, green vegetation, fragrant flowers, livestock to provide them plenty of milk.  Africa is most likely to come up with the most number of billionaires soon....or if not, at least top social entrepreneurs who will instead contribute to their lands through holding together and creating business enterprises which serve the communities.  If not dollar billionaires, these will be the enlightened spiritual billionaires who will do great good for their once, their people will have increasing standards of living.  If the local African banks can back these entrepreneurs, they can create the development and wealth and growth that is the potential.  I pray all these people receive the rich blessings from God.

The United States has steadily grown from the dark days of the 2008 meltdown to today, where the economy seems to have been totally restored, and is growing, with confidence, more jobs, more enterprise, more homeowners, more cars......Now the Fed will just need to fix the Debt Ceiling (in March, it seems).  If they just expand the balance sheet to January 2017, the Obama administration will be home and dry, and all the senators and representatives can continue to collect their pay checks. 
The alternative policies of the Tea Party crowd or Republicans like Donald Trump would see Obamacare repealed, and poor students being sent home due to lack of a free lunch at school.  Those dark days caused due to sequestration are something that is best forgotten. 

I pray Hillary Clinton shall become elected as the President at November 2016.  Simply, it seems her destiny.  It would resonate with the times and the perceptions of people today, everybody seeking self-expression in a democracy.  Her election will enshrine the highest achievement in gender equality.  That is a truth the people will not wish to hide, nor deny themselves. The time has come for this Democrat to rise as the dove, and sit in the highest office in the land.

She was very successful as a peacemaker in the Middle East when she was the Secretary of State.  She has a natural gift for making peace agreements, and people trust her.  She is a natural ambassador for peace.  The world atmosphere will change when she becomes President, the whole tone of political relations will change, I believe, for the better.  It is up to the people, to honour her, and elect her to the White House. 

The One Trillion Eighty Billion Stimulus that the European Central Bank has rolled out has the promise of being extended beyond September 2016, as announced by their President Mario Draghi recently.  That will offer ample scope for upgrade and innovation by the companies in the Euro Area (and by extension Europe) to meet the challenges of these times.  On that note, the one thing the world is waiting for is the Juncker Plan.  With reforms under way, Greece must surely be ready for it.

The low Oil price has depleted the reserves of the oil exporting nations, and their budget deficits have been bigger than envisaged.  That suggests they will review their stance on cutting productions, and introduce some cuts before long; their stance has hurt their purses deeply, so some change may be expected.  Russia too could follow suit, unless they are happy to foster a recession at home.  Common sense would suggest oil price could begin to rise.....but when is only known to the bigwigs in OPEC and Russia.  It is past the post-panic stage; it seems it is a time when they must be regretting not cutting back production earlier.  And there would be no loss of face.  Economic reality seems pretty harsh.

May I wish you good health and joy for the New Year.

Kind regards,
Durudarshan H. Dadlani

(c) Copyright, but may be freely shared.

Interest Rates and upcoming election in the U.S.

Posted on July 17, 2015 at 5:59 AM Comments comments (1)
The interest rate is likely to be raised in the United States this year, but exactly when depends on the strength of the numbers generated by their economy.  Dr Jenny Yellen, giving her testimony on this subject, suggested that a rate is most likely this year, but she will study the data and if the numbers are strong enough, signal a hike, but always bearing in mind that any proposed rate rise should not jeopardize the economic Recovery now in hand.

Measured against the historic low interest rate which has allowed Recovery blossom (it is growing into signs of Prosperity in the United States, some parts of it anyway), the upcoming question of a Debt Ceiling raise in September may dampen spirits somewhat.  Congress may hope to count on the continued support of the Republicans, but now that they are preparing the fight for the next election, their support cannot be taken for granted.  They may wish to play the card that the national debt burden is already too high, and they owe it to future generations not to load it too high.  So far, Mr Obama has been lucky, the Republicans co-operated in the Debt Ceiling raise of $2.15 Trillion in August 2011, and then annually such a figure seems to have been pretty quietly written in.  Of course it has done the nation no harm at all, Recovery has blossomed into Prosperity, and more and more people are experiencing rising standards of living, more are buying automobiles, houses, durable goods, and clothing, and also prefer to buy higher end products, a sure sign of disposable income.

I would hazard a guess that the numbers on the U.S. economy will continue to be strong, as more and more people find work and the unemployment rate falls.  That will be a great salute to the Obama administration, and how they have brought a nation from recession to Prosperity within the period of their tenure.  Their policies will implicitly recommend Hillary Clinton to the nation as the ideal successor to the White House.  Let's face it, people who would otherwise have voted Republican voted for Mr Obama and the Democrats at November 2012 because 'in these times, we need the blanket of the social net and the security of Obamacare' (this was one young woman from New Hampshire, but her words I think summed up the feelings across the nation at that time).

The dynamics suggest there will be monetary tightening and accordingly the rate will rise.  A possible scenario may be a steady rise from the current low to about 2.5 percent over the course of the next 3 years.  With rising hourly rates and gender equality in pay (evidence Mary Barras at GM), the quest for rising standards for all may ensure an environment politically and socially that will make the American people support Mrs Hillary Clinton to the White House.  It would certainly cheer up the whole world to see this champion of democratic freedoms achieve the fulfilment of her dream and destiny, to be the first woman President of the United States.  I pray she has God's blessings and the support of her fellow citizens in this quest.

Kind regards,