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Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

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What are the chances of the worldwide economic Recovery continuing this year?

Posted on January 2, 2016 at 11:19 AM Comments comments (16)
The chances are pretty decent of the worldwide economic Recovery continuing this year, with the promising possibility of enhancement.

Japan seems to have decided to continue its Stimulus, running at some $85 billion a month.  This is gigantic for the size of their population, and guarantees the highest standards of living in the world to all Japanese citizens, plus a growing influence around the world, where their capital is likely to foster growth and development.  For example, they have offered $35 billion to India for joint venture in developments of infrastructure, and this will certainly add to Japanese GNP.

India has done joint venture and co-operation treaties with Germany and France, to help develop some of the 100 new cities that Pradhanmantri Shree Narendra Modi announced at the beginning of 2015.  Since then, he has visited China and Russia, and is signing up co-operation and trade agreements with every likely nation, including many in Africa.  As a lot of Indians lived in Africa and grew up there, it seems India is taking an altruistic stance, wishing to repay with gratitude to their African brothers and sisters.  This is a laudable gesture, and will enable the inherent and huge potential growth that is in places such as Lagos and Zimbabwe. 

China too is extending its sphere of influence, Hon Xi Jinping visited so many nations and signing up trade and co-operation treaties.  I can imagine joy for all these nations, where they will have expertise been made available to them, together with the machinery and transportation to fully benefit from their resources as well as create infrastructure developments which they so badly need.  How can people not imagine dams, electricity, drinking water available on the doorstep, schools, dispensaries, hospitals, hotels, housing, tourists.....thriving economies....where God has blessed them with the rich fertile lands, mineral wealth, green vegetation, fragrant flowers, livestock to provide them plenty of milk.  Africa is most likely to come up with the most number of billionaires soon....or if not, at least top social entrepreneurs who will instead contribute to their lands through holding together and creating business enterprises which serve the communities.  If not dollar billionaires, these will be the enlightened spiritual billionaires who will do great good for their communities....at once, their people will have increasing standards of living.  If the local African banks can back these entrepreneurs, they can create the development and wealth and growth that is the potential.  I pray all these people receive the rich blessings from God.

The United States has steadily grown from the dark days of the 2008 meltdown to today, where the economy seems to have been totally restored, and is growing, with confidence, more jobs, more enterprise, more homeowners, more cars......Now the Fed will just need to fix the Debt Ceiling (in March, it seems).  If they just expand the balance sheet to January 2017, the Obama administration will be home and dry, and all the senators and representatives can continue to collect their pay checks. 
The alternative policies of the Tea Party crowd or Republicans like Donald Trump would see Obamacare repealed, and poor students being sent home due to lack of a free lunch at school.  Those dark days caused due to sequestration are something that is best forgotten. 

I pray Hillary Clinton shall become elected as the President at November 2016.  Simply, it seems her destiny.  It would resonate with the times and the perceptions of people today, everybody seeking self-expression in a democracy.  Her election will enshrine the highest achievement in gender equality.  That is a truth the people will not wish to hide, nor deny themselves. The time has come for this Democrat to rise as the dove, and sit in the highest office in the land.

She was very successful as a peacemaker in the Middle East when she was the Secretary of State.  She has a natural gift for making peace agreements, and people trust her.  She is a natural ambassador for peace.  The world atmosphere will change when she becomes President, the whole tone of political relations will change, I believe, for the better.  It is up to the people, to honour her, and elect her to the White House. 

The One Trillion Eighty Billion Stimulus that the European Central Bank has rolled out has the promise of being extended beyond September 2016, as announced by their President Mario Draghi recently.  That will offer ample scope for upgrade and innovation by the companies in the Euro Area (and by extension Europe) to meet the challenges of these times.  On that note, the one thing the world is waiting for is the Juncker Plan.  With reforms under way, Greece must surely be ready for it.

The low Oil price has depleted the reserves of the oil exporting nations, and their budget deficits have been bigger than envisaged.  That suggests they will review their stance on cutting productions, and introduce some cuts before long; their stance has hurt their purses deeply, so some change may be expected.  Russia too could follow suit, unless they are happy to foster a recession at home.  Common sense would suggest oil price could begin to rise.....but when is only known to the bigwigs in OPEC and Russia.  It is past the post-panic stage; it seems it is a time when they must be regretting not cutting back production earlier.  And there would be no loss of face.  Economic reality seems pretty harsh.

May I wish you good health and joy for the New Year.

Kind regards,
Durudarshan H. Dadlani

(c) Copyright, but may be freely shared.

Can there be renewed Recovery in the Euro Area?

Posted on July 23, 2015 at 4:56 PM Comments comments (0)
Do you think there can be renewed Recovery in the Euro Area, after the happy solution to the Greek crisis? 

It would seem very possible that the Recovery which had waned somewhat in the Euro Area will now become rejuvenated, with about 60 Billion Euros in asset purchases every month being done by the ECB.  From the official inception in April (and unofficially, from December 2014 for Greece, who needed emergency funding from their ELA), the ECB has started to help the various nations who have the Euro as their Mother Currency, and it is to be hoped they will have helped all the 19 members over the course of the next 14 months or so.  The Stimulus of One Trillion and 80 Billion Euros will provide the God send that the economies needed.  It is in the press that Ukraine may be receiving some funds from the IMF very soon.  Italy is in need of some of the Stimulus funds, to rejuvenate their Recovery, as does Ireland.  Netherlands may need some funds also, as probably do Portugal and other nations.

The 38.5 Billion Euros that will form the JUNCKER PLAN may have to be an extra-ordinary addition to the Stimulus, a one-off stand-alone Goodwill Fund, especially to help Greece refloat their economy, very much like the Marshall Plan helped the various European nations in the 1940s, early 50s.

The 19 Euro Area nations have a huge diversity of size and demographics, which would need to be weighed up in the context of their current stage in the economic cycle.  Of course, the rule of thumb would be to give each and every one some funds (via asset purchases) to turn their toxic assets into valuable assets on the balance sheets (of both the governments and corporations) and in due course with enterprise and growth, wealth will become created, and one day the debts will become repaid.
In the meantime, the funds will have assisted in giving cash flow, helping to create work and projects which will be turning all the natural resources God has given them into monetary equivalents. 

Now as the Greek brothers and sisters see the money arriving, they must have renewed confidence in the nature of the system.  This will add to their confidence in the system, and know that what they dream is possible, of their fortunes being restored through innovation, production, manufacture, and marketing and trade, the natural business activity of any economy.  With their huge numbers of educated and entrepreneurial young people, they certainly have everything to spearhead growth on a huge scale, which any observer at the moment can but imagine as potential.  I wish them God's blessings in their enterprises.

I am just stating what is obvious : there shall now be renewed Recovery in the Euro Area.

Kind regards,
Duru-darshan

9:51pm  London